BludgerTrack: 52.6-47.4 to Labor

With the final pre-campaign polls added, the poll aggregate records a continuation of the improvement in the Coalition’s position that has been evident for some time, rather than anything that might be called a “budget bounce”.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has been updated with the three post-budget polls from Newspoll, Ipsos and Essential Research, the combined effect of which is to reduce Labor’s two-party lead from 52.9-47.1 to 52.6-47.4. There’s also a fair bit going on within the state breakdowns – in fact, probably too much.

The recovery the Liberals believe they are detecting in New South Wales is well and truly coming through on BludgerTrack, albeit that Labor is still credited with a net gain of two seats there. A significant improvement has also been recorded in the Coalition’s position recently in Western Australia, although here too Labor is credited with a net gain of two seats. What we’re not seeing any sign of is the improved position the Coalition claims to be seeing in Queensland, where reports have suggested they are now hopeful of breaking even by gaining Herbert and limiting the damage in the south-east. BludgerTrack is stubbornly detecting a swing to Labor in the strategically crucial state of over 6%, translating into a gain of nine seats.

I would be a lot more confident of all this if I had more data at state level, which I’m hoping Ipsos might publish in due course – they appeared to have adopted the Newspoll practice last year of publishing quarterly state breakdowns, but we didn’t see one for October-December and are now due one for January-March. I’ve been trying to chase this up and will keep you posted.

Newspoll and Ipsos both provided new data for the leadership ratings, which are now detecting an uptick in Scott Morrison’s personal ratings, although the picture remains fairly static on preferred prime minister. All of which you can learn more about through the link below.

TECHNICAL NOTE/APPEAL FOR HELP: I’m hoping those of my readers who know their way around web programming might help me resolve an irritating niggle that’s been bedevilling the BludgerTrack display for some time. Namely, that the state breakdown tabs tend not to work, particularly when the page is first loaded. My own experience is that it requires a hard refresh before they will respond. Tablet users, I am told, can’t even do that well.

Based on my research, it would seem to be that the problem lies with the following bit of Ajax code. If anyone thinks they can offer me any pointers here, please get in touch by email at pollbludger-AT-bigpond-DOT-com.

$(document).ready(function() {
$.ajax({
cache: false,
type: "GET",
url: "bt-output.xml",
dataType: "xml",
success: xmlParser
});
});

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

799 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.6-47.4 to Labor”

  1. Lizzie. Thanks. Based on that summary (I haven’t read the judgment), the judge seems to say that, when Norvill made the allegations she did, her motive was not money, hatred, ambition, etc etc. Rather, she is someone prone to “exaggeration and embellishment”. Rush on the other hand was “longwinded and wordy” but telling the truth.

  2. ‘Gaetjens has skewered Morrison and Frydenberg like worms on a hook and left them dangling for all to see as the conniving liars they are.’

    Yep, you’re right.
    Just ask any punter down at the supermarket in any marginal seat in the coutry and that’s what they’ll say…..Gaetjens has skewered Morrison and Frydenberg like worms on a hook and left them dangling for all to see as the conniving liars they are.’……sheesh

    There’s PB world and then there’s the real world.
    Tell the average punter that the Howard government was the highest taxing government in Australia’s history and watch the expression change as they try to align that with their own perception of the ALP who everyone knows is addicted to tax!……I’m suggesting the ALP could change the narrative that’s all…..tell them the Whitlam government was the lowest taxing government and watch their heads explode (stand back)

  3. Edi_Mahin: “I don’t believe Israel Falou engaged in hate speech. Asking someone to repent is an expression of love, not hate.”

    I suggest you read the Acts of the Apostles (the new testament book called Acts) to find out the proper way to do it. Seriously.

  4. ‘‘Gaetjens has skewered Morrison and Frydenberg like worms on a hook and left them dangling for all to see as the conniving liars they are.’’

    And
    Yep, you’re right. That’ll be the lead story on the news tonight ‘Gaetjens skewers Morrison and Frydenberg’……gee, hope I don’t miss that…..

  5. I think its important to note that there was witnesses giving evidence in the trial. There was one for Ms Norvill and a few for Rush. It appears that the justice did not find the witness backing up Ms Norvill to be that good.

  6. Lynchpin @ #397 Friday, April 12th, 2019 – 4:53 pm

    I am a bit dumb sometimes, but what is the issue here with “Treasury costings” if the figures accords with Labor’s estimate of the “ value” of the policies? What nuance am I missing.

    I get that these aren’t new taxes, but more savings on ending rorts and not giving tax breaks.

    So what’s the issue, other than Frydenberg embellishing it all by saying they are new taxes?


    Read this article and you will get the picture.

    Greensborough Growler (Block)
    Friday, April 12th, 2019 – 4:37 pm
    Comment #383
    The Guardian calls out the Libs costings bulldust.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/apr/12/josh-frydenberg-says-labor-plans-387-billion-in-new-taxes-but-the-facts-say-otherwise?CMP=share_btn_tw

  7. antonbruckner1: “Based on that summary (I haven’t read the judgment), the judge seems to say that, when Norvill made the allegations she did, her motive was not money, hatred, ambition, etc etc. Rather, she is someone prone to “exaggeration and embellishment”. Rush on the other hand was “longwinded and wordy” but telling the truth.”

    It sounds like Norville and Rush might both be actors, is that so?

  8. I think Mr Falou should be seeking psychological help. He is not able to separate his religious delusions from real life and the former is harming the latter.

  9. ABC News TV reproducing this morning’s “Treasury costings” story word for word.

    No mention whatsoever of Treasury’s denial.

    Saying Bill Shorten has denied the accusation, but not that Treasury has backed him up.

    I would expect the ABC’s excuse for the omission would be that the story had already been edited and wrapped.

    A belated mention just now, but only after reproducing the entire deceptive ScoMo story in full.

    Disgusting.

  10. Bushfire Bill @ #413 Friday, April 12th, 2019 – 5:07 pm

    ABC News TV reproducing this morning’s “Treasury costings” story word for word.

    No mention whatsoever of Treasury’s denial.

    Saying Bill Shorten has denied the accusation, but not that Treasury has backed him up.

    I would expect the ABC’s excuse for the omission would be that the story had already been edited and wrapped.

    A belated mention just now, but only after reproducing the entire deceptive ScoMo story in full.

    Disgusting.

    Disgusting, but typical.

    And Q&A has that well known intellectual and ‘debate’ enhancer, Malcolm nut job Roberts on this week.

  11. Bushfire Bill @ #378 Friday, April 12th, 2019 – 5:07 pm

    ABC News TV reproducing this morning’s “Treasury costings” story word for word.

    No mention whatsoever of Treasury’s denial.

    Saying Bill Shorten has denied the accusation, but not that Treasury has backed him up.

    I would expect the ABC’s excuse for the omission would be that the story had already been edited and wrapped.

    A belated mention just now, but only after reproducing the entire deceptive ScoMo story in full.

    Disgusting.

    Caught out halfway through your post. You should have just deleted before hitting submit 😆

  12. Is there some way that my Name and Email can be saved so that I don’t have to enter them each time (even using auto-complete) I write a comment?

  13. EGW
    “So you sat through all the evidence before coming to your considered opinion?”

    No.
    But that is still my opinion and the opinion of many in the industry.

  14. Three Liberal candidates dumped after failing the S44 test —

    ‘Kate Oski, the candidate for Labor in Melbourne’s west, has stepped aside and will likely be replaced by her mother, Gayle Murphy.

    The Herald Sun understands Ms Oski has rights to Polish citizenship through her father, Stephen, and was unable to complete a complex process to renounce her claim in time.

    Liberal candidate in Wills, Vaishali Ghosh, has also been forced to step aside because of her Indian heritage.

    It is understood Ms Ghosh is not an Indian citizen, but party officials were concerns over her Persons of Indian Origin status, which allows those with Indian parents or grandparents access to long term visas.

    A third candidate, Helen Jackson in the inner-city seat of Cooper, will also be dumped because she is an employee of Australia Post.’

    ‘..The Herald Sun has been told the party only began vetting candidates once they had been officially endorsed because some candidates for preselection had raised concern about their personal details being widely shared within party ranks.’

    https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/section-44-crisis-hits-campaign-as-liberals-dump-three-candidates-across-victorian-seats/news-story/9d3fe160a1b92d2b476275cc32e9ac43

  15. adrian @ #416 Friday, April 12th, 2019 – 5:09 pm

    Bushfire Bill @ #413 Friday, April 12th, 2019 – 5:07 pm

    ABC News TV reproducing this morning’s “Treasury costings” story word for word.

    No mention whatsoever of Treasury’s denial.

    Saying Bill Shorten has denied the accusation, but not that Treasury has backed him up.

    I would expect the ABC’s excuse for the omission would be that the story had already been edited and wrapped.

    A belated mention just now, but only after reproducing the entire deceptive ScoMo story in full.

    Disgusting.

    Disgusting, but typical.

    And Q&A has that well known intellectual and ‘debate’ enhancer, Malcolm nut job Roberts on this week.

    So you don’t enjoy comedy?

  16. The comments by Peter Beattie that Israel Folau would not be registered as an NRL player are clearly discrimination against Israel Folau because of his religious beliefs.

  17. Kate Oski, the candidate for Labor in Melbourne’s west

    Kate Oski is the (former) Liberal candidate for the seat of Lalor, not a Labor candidate for a west-Melbourne seat. In case anyone else was confused by that article.

    And brilliant strategy from the Libs, letting her mother take her place. It’s not like the daughter having s44 issues implies that the mother might as well. Oh no, nothing like that at all. 🙂

  18. Folau can make all the religious statements he likes, he just has to take the consequences.

    Which is OK, because being persecuted as a Christian gets you bonus points in the hereafter, which – for a Christian – should be the main game, surely?

  19. You should try OnePassword (a password generating/saving application) Bucephalus.

    It stores all encrypted passwords and will fill in the password box for you.

    Takes a little ‘learning’ but invaluable because you can have long/complex/random passwords that you don’t need to remember and can install across all your devices.

    Stops you being vulnerable abut also negates the need to remember complex/secure passwords

  20. adrian says:
    Friday, April 12, 2019 at 5:07 pm

    Mundo, you’d feel a lot better if you did something to help the campaign.

    I thought he was!

    Isn’t he hiding in the kitchen? 🙂

  21. Edi_Mahin @ #425 Friday, April 12th, 2019 – 5:13 pm

    The comments by Peter Beattie that Israel Folau would not be registered as an NRL player are clearly discrimination against Israel Folau because of his religious beliefs.

    More because of his proven ability to fail to STFU and to engage in hate speech based upon peoples sexuality.
    He is free to hold whatever deluded beliefs his cult fosters, just as Morrison is. Neither is free to engage in hate speech.

  22. ‘ABC News TV reproducing this morning’s “Treasury costings” story word for word.

    No mention whatsoever of Treasury’s denial.’

    No shit!
    That can’t be right Fulvio Sammut said Morrison and Frydenberg were skewered…..go figure..
    Oh and EGW I don’t have to. Stop shooting the bloody messenger will you. We’re on the same side for crisakes.

  23. They are Israel Folau’s religious beliefs. There is nothing wrong with being anti-homosexuality if God is anti-homosexuality.

  24. a r @ #430 Friday, April 12th, 2019 – 5:16 pm

    Kate Oski, the candidate for Labor in Melbourne’s west

    Kate Oski is the (former) Liberal candidate for the seat of Lalor, not a Labor candidate for a west-Melbourne seat. In case anyone else was confused by that article.

    And brilliant strategy from the Libs, letting her mother take her place. It’s not like the daughter having s44 issues implies that the mother might as well. Oh no, nothing like that at all. 🙂

    He problems were because of her father, not her mother.

  25. “So Paul, another great day for the government on the campaign trail?”

    “Absolutely Chris. Going gangbusters.”

    “Join us tonight on Sky as we review Peter Dutton’s election-winning put down of his upstart Labor opponent and Treasury’s astonishing evisceration of Labor’s tax policy.”

    “Plus, we meet the three Liberal candidates in Lalor, Wills and Cooper who are leading the charge as Morrison looks to increase his majority.”

    “That’s tonight on Sky News. Where reality never bites.”

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *