BludgerTrack: 52.6-47.4 to Labor

With the final pre-campaign polls added, the poll aggregate records a continuation of the improvement in the Coalition’s position that has been evident for some time, rather than anything that might be called a “budget bounce”.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has been updated with the three post-budget polls from Newspoll, Ipsos and Essential Research, the combined effect of which is to reduce Labor’s two-party lead from 52.9-47.1 to 52.6-47.4. There’s also a fair bit going on within the state breakdowns – in fact, probably too much.

The recovery the Liberals believe they are detecting in New South Wales is well and truly coming through on BludgerTrack, albeit that Labor is still credited with a net gain of two seats there. A significant improvement has also been recorded in the Coalition’s position recently in Western Australia, although here too Labor is credited with a net gain of two seats. What we’re not seeing any sign of is the improved position the Coalition claims to be seeing in Queensland, where reports have suggested they are now hopeful of breaking even by gaining Herbert and limiting the damage in the south-east. BludgerTrack is stubbornly detecting a swing to Labor in the strategically crucial state of over 6%, translating into a gain of nine seats.

I would be a lot more confident of all this if I had more data at state level, which I’m hoping Ipsos might publish in due course – they appeared to have adopted the Newspoll practice last year of publishing quarterly state breakdowns, but we didn’t see one for October-December and are now due one for January-March. I’ve been trying to chase this up and will keep you posted.

Newspoll and Ipsos both provided new data for the leadership ratings, which are now detecting an uptick in Scott Morrison’s personal ratings, although the picture remains fairly static on preferred prime minister. All of which you can learn more about through the link below.

TECHNICAL NOTE/APPEAL FOR HELP: I’m hoping those of my readers who know their way around web programming might help me resolve an irritating niggle that’s been bedevilling the BludgerTrack display for some time. Namely, that the state breakdown tabs tend not to work, particularly when the page is first loaded. My own experience is that it requires a hard refresh before they will respond. Tablet users, I am told, can’t even do that well.

Based on my research, it would seem to be that the problem lies with the following bit of Ajax code. If anyone thinks they can offer me any pointers here, please get in touch by email at pollbludger-AT-bigpond-DOT-com.

$(document).ready(function() {
$.ajax({
cache: false,
type: "GET",
url: "bt-output.xml",
dataType: "xml",
success: xmlParser
});
});

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

799 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.6-47.4 to Labor”

  1. Bugler

    Absolutely, you would be – principals sometimes do pre emptive strikes with me and remind me that I’m not to push my politics in the classroom (I wouldn’t, because I’m a professional…). Certainly I’ve been in staff meetings where we’ve been told what we are not allowed to say about religion.

  2. Edi_Mahin @ #493 Friday, April 12th, 2019 – 5:51 pm

    a r,
    it is always a choice whether to engage in sexual activity, unless one is being raped.

    What’s that got to do with anything? A homosexual is someone who’s sexually attracted to members of the same gender, not someone who necessarily has sex with them.

    You can, for instance, be both homosexual and a virgin.

    Not that there’d be much love in telling someone “just live your whole life without ever having sex with a person you’re actually attracted to”, anyways.

  3. Edi_Mahin says:
    Friday, April 12, 2019 at 5:44 pm

    EGW, as I have explained, Israel Folau’s comments are not based on hate, they are based on love.

    If you see someone in a situation where they are about to come great harm is it an act of love or an act of hate to try and stop them coming to that great harm?

    Where is the evidence for this “great harm”?

    The real danger for homosexuals is from people who hold such beliefs reacting violently towards them.

    Not much love there!

  4. Edi

    ‘Preaching is a clear obligation of being a Christian.’

    Not sure about the ‘clear’ bit. Christ was big on living so that people ask you what it is that you’re doing that gets such good results. He certainly said that those who bang on about their beliefs in public aren’t doing the right thing – my grandfather, who was a Minister, had a thing against the Salvos because of that text.

  5. Two of the best tactical moves by labor in this campaign are the choices of Jim Chalmers as campaign spokesperson and Kristina Keneally as the face of the Bill Bus. Front and centre every day.

    Both are very very good.

  6. Always love the mental gymnastics that “progressive” Christians use to claim that the Bible seriously condemns the elements of Christianity they don’t approve of. I mean, the better explanation is that they’re old texts written by people millennia ago, who might have had more archaic social views than people in the 21st century and maybe should be, as a whole, dismissed as an authority on anything today but nah, it’s just a misunderstanding of the text which totally showed that the true Jesus was all about using the correct pronouns.

  7. Let’s face it, most opposition to Folau on here is purely based on poster’s disagreement with his sentiments and have nothing at all to do with issues pertaining to free speech and democracy. These attitudes are grist to the mill for the RWNJ elements. It’s a major driver of people who should be voting for the left, going over to One nation.

  8. BW – James O’Brien from LBC

    We also meet David, a lay preacher who called in after the Liberal Democrat leader Tim Farron described gay sex as a sin.

    O’Brien wanted David, who believed the Bible told us all we needed to know about homosexuality, to enlighten him on Jesus’s views but David kept quoting Corinthians. “First Corinthians is a letter that St Paul wrote,” explained O’Brien, before saying again: “What did Jesus say, in the Gospels, about homosexuality?”

    By the end he had asked the question 27 times, at one stage breaking into song in mock-frustration, but to no avail. This is because Jesus said nothing on the subject at all.

    https://www.theguardian.com/books/2018/nov/07/how-to-be-right-in-a-world-gone-wrong-james-obrien-review

  9. Edi_Mahan
    “but it is part of his religious beliefs that he has to disseminate them. Preaching is a clear obligation of being a Christian.”

    Really? I’m a Christian. First I’ve heard of it.
    I just focus on being a nice person.

  10. Yeah, but what about the atheists… what about them? Nobody is defending their right to avoid hell. I’m feeling very offended by all that

  11. doyley @ #472 Friday, April 12th, 2019 – 6:00 pm

    Two of the best tactical moves by labor in this campaign are the choices of Jim Chalmers as campaign spokesperson and Kristina Keneally as the face of the Bill Bus. Front and centre every day.

    Both are very very good.

    They are the standout communicators for Labor. Both very engaging.

  12. EGW
    “We need a kind of thing like the “do not call register” for those who wish to be spared.”

    Exactimundo. I have a sticker to ward off random door-knockers who want to sell me stuff (like religion). There is no equivalent on Instagram.

  13. Kakuru,
    I certainly think it is a clear part of the Bible message that believers should tell others about their beliefs so that they also might be saved.

  14. clem Attlee @ #512 Friday, April 12th, 2019 – 6:01 pm

    Let’s face it, most opposition to Folau on here is purely based on poster’s disagreement with his sentiments and have nothing at all to do with issues pertaining to free speech and democracy.

    Because there are none of those latter things. He exercised his right to free speech. His employer exercised their right to terminate his employment for breach of contract.

    Everyone acted within their entitlements. Move along, nothing to see here.

    These attitudes are grist to the mill for the RWNJ elements. It’s a major driver of people who should be voting for the left, going over to One nation.

    That much, however, is true. The right loves a whipping up a good faux-culture-wars campaign.

  15. Boerwar: “God went out of his way to kill Onan for spilling his seed”

    Onan’s brother died, leaving no heirs, creating a problem for his (his brother’s) family.

    The only practical solution to this problem (at the time, we now have better ways) was for Onan to “go into his brother’s wife” with the result of pregnancy, and (in this base) the child would be considered Onan’s heir (not that of his brother)

    Instead, Onan used the “withdrawal” method of contraception (as it’s now called) and gratified himself with the sexual activity, whilst avoiding the result of a pregnancy (which he did not want, because the child would not be his heir)

    Amongst other things, Onan’s disobedience would have likely resulted in his brother’s wife dying a penniless widow*, which is shameful on his part. It has nothing to do with “Onanism” in the modern sense (masturbation) and in fact the correct definition of “Onanism” relates to contraception. (BTW – don’t go with Google’s first suggested link for “Onanism”, unless you’re into that sort of thing…)

    *There is more to the story in this case, however: it turns out the window (Tamar) was the only one trying to act lawfully.

  16. Clem

    If atheism is a religion it applies.
    However you do get to choose your belief or lack of it. That’s not a whole class of people. So not exactly like racism

    Of course Jesus message was forgiveness. Judge not and certainly don’t preach people are destined to hell.

  17. Kate:

    Thanks for that. Did you see the Washington Post story I posted this morning? Trump can deny all he wants he’s never heard of Assange but the rest of the world knows differently!

  18. Edi_Mahin says:
    Friday, April 12, 2019 at 6:07 pm

    Kakuru,
    I certainly think it is a clear part of the Bible message that believers should tell others about their beliefs so that they also might be saved.

    “Saved” from what?

  19. Christ wasn’t on about people having to believe in him to be saved. He makes it quite clear that some people who think they’re serving him won’t be accepted and that others who think they’re not followers of Christ will be.

    (If you believe this stuff, of course – I had a misspent adolescence…)

  20. A reminder.

    We know how far you get using religion to denigrate LGBTI people.
    Australians made their view on that bigotry clear with their vote. Yes that included previous Foleau comments.

  21. Boerwar @ 5:40 pm

    “Bluey reckons that Dutton’s effort to kick the only leg out from under a one-legged woman is something that will linger in the mind for some time.”

    Once a Queensland cop, always a Queensland cop.

  22. ‘dave says:
    Friday, April 12, 2019 at 6:01 pm

    BW – James O’Brien from LBC

    We also meet David, a lay preacher who called in after the Liberal Democrat leader Tim Farron described gay sex as a sin.

    O’Brien wanted David, who believed the Bible told us all we needed to know about homosexuality, to enlighten him on Jesus’s views but David kept quoting Corinthians. “First Corinthians is a letter that St Paul wrote,” explained O’Brien, before saying again: “What did Jesus say, in the Gospels, about homosexuality?”

    By the end he had asked the question 27 times, at one stage breaking into song in mock-frustration, but to no avail. This is because Jesus said nothing on the subject at all.’

    This argument is based on the implicit assumption that there were/are/willbe two Gods: the Old Testament God and the New Testament God. Theologically, this is absurd. God is unchanging.

  23. ‘Pedant says:
    Friday, April 12, 2019 at 6:22 pm

    Boerwar @ 5:40 pm

    “Bluey reckons that Dutton’s effort to kick the only leg out from under a one-legged woman is something that will linger in the mind for some time.”

    Once a Queensland cop, always a Queensland cop.’

    Q. What is the difference between a Queensland cop and a Liberal politician?

  24. Bernard Keane on the Drum tonight just explained why – not directly – Morrison wins today.
    All the TV news bulletins I saw ran with 387 billion of new Labor taxes says Scotty.
    End of story.
    Forget the nuance, forget the facts.

  25. Of course it’s logical to think Judas was Jesus lover and Mary Magdalene the Marriage of Convenience given the times.

    All those men worshippers. Of course that’s heretical thinking. So too was Luther once.

  26. Edi_Mahin: “Barney, death.”

    a r: “Can’t be that. None of us are saved from death.”

    however – “For the wages of sin is death, but the free gift of God is eternal life in Christ Jesus our Lord.”

    Wages (as wage earners know) are delivered regularly, and (in the case) the word “death” refers to an ongoing process (which Augustine of Hippo called “non posse non peccare”) not an ultimate fate

  27. Being in a religion does not give one the Get Out of Gaol Free card for not being a citizen who respects others by not attacking others for their sexuality. If a religion said it was necessary to repent being anorexic to avoid hell, it would be okay to tweet that? He can rave at home to his heart’s content that everyone needs to tattoo a caterpillar on their butt or go the Hell, but if he tweeted it, he would be considered very odd indeed.

    Telling people that they are going to burn because of their sexuality is vilification and he can do that at a church or in his car but not in the public domain. If he wants to keep his job.

  28. It is my opinion that the judge got it wrong. Rush will lose work, not because of what the DT printed, but because the industry has been made to look at itself and it’s practices and not do what it has done for years and let bad behaviour pass if the person doing it was important enough.

    Yes, I agree that this will be the long term legacy of Geoffrey Rush’s behaviour: a more proactive and intelligent approach to maintaining healthy boundaries in the acting community.

    Michael Wagney’s clueless approach to sexual harassment has hurt Eryn Norvill but many other people will experience a more respectful workplace because of her courage.

  29. Boerwar @ 6.22pm

    Not much. See Senator O’Sullivan. I always thought it interesting that it was about when the Fitzgerald inquiry was lifting rocks and finding lots of things hidden underneath that Mr Dutton decided that the Queensland Police Force was his kind of organisation.

  30. There is a bit of a problem with Jesus being both God and man, as he was/is/will be.
    Had he married, not spilled his seed, and fathered a girl child, then THAT child would the Daughter of God.
    And then where would we all be?
    Attempts by gays to co-opt Jesus because he was not a practising hetero miss the main point.

  31. Edi_Mahan
    “I certainly think it is a clear part of the Bible message that believers should tell others about their beliefs so that they also might be saved.”

    Folau can still do that. But not while he’s on the payroll of Rugby Australia.
    Free speech has consequences. Folau still has his free speech. But he doesn’t get a free pass. If his public views are offensive (and they are), then Rugby Australia has the right to terminate his contract.

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