Election minus five weeks

Candidates on both sides of the aisle drop out of contention, Peter Dutton suffers a self-inflicted wound in Dickson, and Shooters Fishers and Farmers rein in their expectations.

Two days in the campaign, and already much to relate:

• Labor’s audacious gambit of running former Fremantle MP Melissa Parke in Curtin has proved short-lived, after a controversy brewed over comments she had made critical of Israel. Parke announced her withdrawal after the Herald Sun presented the Labor campaign with claims she had told a meeting of WA Labor for Palestine that she could “remember vividly” – presumably not from first-hand experience – a pregnant refugee being ordered to drink bleach at a Gaza checkpoint. Parke is also said to have spoken of Israel’s “influence in our political system and foreign policy”, no doubt bringing to the party hierarchy’s mind the turmoil that has lately engulfed the British Labour Party in relation to such matters. In her statement last night, Parke said her views were “well known, but I don’t want them to be a running distraction from electing a Labor government”. James Campbell of the Herald Sun notes the forum was also attended by Parkes’ successor in Fremantle, Josh Wilson.

• Meanwhile, Liberal Party vetting processes have caused the withdrawal on Section 44 grounds of three candidates in who-cares seats in Melbourne. They are Cooper candidate Helen Jackson, who dug her heels in when told her no-chance candidacy required her to abandon her job at Australia Post, so that the integrity of executive-legislative relations might be preserved; Lalor candidate Kate Oski, who is in danger of being Polish; and Wills candidate Vaishali Ghosh, who was, as The Age put it in a report I hope no one from overseas reads, “forced to step aside over her Indian heritage”.

• Peter Dutton has been under fire for his rhetorical overreach against Ali France, the Labor candidate in his marginal seat of Dickson. Dutton accused France, who had her leg amputated after being hit by a car in 2011, of “using her disability as an excuse” for not moving into the electorate. France lives a short distance outside it, and points to the $100,000 of her compensation money she has spent making her existing home fully wheelchair accessible. Labor has taken the opportunity to point to Dutton’s failed attempt from 2009 to move to the safer seat of McPherson on the Gold Coast, where he owns a $2.3 million beachside holiday home, and by all accounts spends a great deal of his time. Dutton refused to apologise for the comments yesterday, while Scott Morrison baselessly asserted that they were taken out of context.

• Greg Brown of The Australian reports Robert Borsak, leader of Shooters Fishers and Farmers and one of the party’s state upper house MPs, concedes the party is struggling to recruit candidates, and will not repeat its state election feat of winning seats in the lower house. Nonetheless, it has Orange deputy mayor Sam Romano lined up as its candidate for Calare and plans to run in Eden-Monaro, Parkes and possibly New England. This follows suggestions the party might pose a threat to the Nationals in Parkes and Farrer, which largely correspond with the state seats of Barwon and Murray, which the party won at last month’s state election. Calare encompasses Orange, which Shooters have held since a November 2016 by-election.

• “I don’t trust our polling at all”, says “a senior federal Liberal MP” cited by John Ferguson in The Australian, apropos the party’s prospects in Victoria. It is not clear if the source was being optimistic or pessimistic, but the report identifies a range of opinion within the Liberal camp extending from only two or three losses in Victoria – likewise identified as a “worst case scenario” by Labor sources – to as many as seven.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,433 comments on “Election minus five weeks”

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  1. nath recently posted a link to an interesting landcare project.

    Landcare has taken a 33% annual funding cut. It once received $1bn over four years. From 2019, it will get the same sum over six years

    Which is in keeping with the general Liberal slashing on gov finding on the environment.

    But… you know… Labor are bad….Unions….Shorten picks his nose… Adani … so we should let the Vandals back in to ransack for another 3 years.

  3. But… you know… Labor are bad….Unions….Shorten picks his nose… Adani … so we should let the Vandals back in to ransack for another 3 years.

    Funny you should say that. Our neighbour across the street informs me she cannot possibly vote for a man who picks his nose, as she reckons Shorten did.

    I’d never heard that yarn before.

  4. Bushfire Bill @ #402 Saturday, April 13th, 2019 – 4:07 pm

    But… you know… Labor are bad….Unions….Shorten picks his nose… Adani … so we should let the Vandals back in to ransack for another 3 years.

    Funny you should say that. Our neighbour across the street informs me she cannot possibly vote for a man who picks his nose, as she reckons Shorten did.

    I’d never heard that yarn before.

    Look, she’d only have a point if he ate it.

  9. Julian Hill MP
    @JulianHillMP
    43m43 minutes ago

    I just want to let everyone know that if you don’t vote Julian Hill in Bruce you may still get Julian Hill, as the Liberals still haven’t got a candidate.

  10. Socrates @ #405 Saturday, April 13th, 2019 – 4:11 pm

    So now we have the surreal prospect of ScumMo suggesting Labor are pedalling racism! Its like gettign a lecture on the need to protect children from George Pell. Or Tony Abbott calling you unscientific.
    https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/i-think-there-s-form-here-scott-morrison-accuses-labor-of-peddling-racist-sentiments-20190413-p51dtr.html

    Mr Morrison accused deputy opposition leader Tanya Plibersek of racism – though without actually using the word – after she said Australians could not “rely on an Indian mining company to bring jobs to central and North Queensland”.

    It is a poor choice of words from Plibersek.

    Very untimely given Daleys recent gaffe.

  11. Not requesting a separate rugby post here but just turned the telly on in our Bathurst Motel room and one of my favourite Saturday afternoon pastimes , Shute Shield Rugby is on!
    I’ve had to see it move from The ABC to the commercials but it still appeals to me. The lack of NRL type hype, nothing like Super(?) Rugby and the small suburban grounds just leaves the game and its players to do their thing and the rugby is great.
    Best thing of all? The match between Manly and Eastwood is being refereed by a young woman. Good on her, and well done Shute Shield!

  13. “Melbourne’s Caulfield Grammar is building a pool with a moveable floor. Presbyterian Ladies College will soon have an orchestra lift.” @gpaddymanning on the taxpayer dollars funding private schools.

    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/opinion/topic/2019/04/13/the-funding-gap-education/15550776007987

    In the recent budget, the Morrison government did nothing to bridge that funding gap. It is not trying to match Labor’s commitment to restore the public school funding in the original Gonski package. The upshot is we are left with lopsided school funding arrangements. The National School Reform Agreement, signed by Education Minister Dan Tehan at the end of last year with each state and territory, restored $4.6 billion of funding for independent schools and the Catholic system – after a lot of arm-wrestling – but left public schools out in the cold. As the parent of public school kids, it made me angry, and I’m not alone.

  15. Morrison’s criticism of Plibersek is pretty off given that ScoMo was calling Nauru and Manus inmates rapists and murderers just a few weeks ago.

    Not to mention his suggestion that the Coalition moves into industrial scale vilification of Muslims.

    But on the main point, we do not owe these foreign companies anything at all. They do not come here to benefit Australia. They come here to make as much money as possible, and then to pay as little tax as possible on any profits made, preferably by laundering them through tax havens like the Cayman Islands. That is a given.

    So pointing out that Adani is an “Indian company” is not only factually correct but reinforces the indisputable extra fact that they are a foreign company exploiting Australian raw materials.

    Don’t confuse wanting the best for Australia with racism. We owe companies like Adani nothing.

  16. Chris Kenney is such a joke. He once called Al Gore – a former Vice President no less – a “failed politician”. This coming from the guy who couldn’t even win preselection for the SA Liberal party to try and enter state politics.

  17. Bushfire Bill
    No stress in your electorate. You’ll get whichever National is running no matter how hard my mates in Forster -Tuncurry Labor work. We haven’t cracked it since the lazy Bob Horne was beaten by the slothful Baldwin.

  18. Just as KK is covering for Bill Shorten on the campaign trail, so to should Penny Wong now travel around with Plibersek.

  20. Nath where are your extensive criticisms of the maladministration of the present government, including pissing tens of billions up against the wall on a temporary network?

    *crickets*

  21. Firefox @ #416 Saturday, April 13th, 2019 – 4:31 pm

    Chris Kenney is such a joke. He once called Al Gore – a former Vice President no less – a “failed politician”. This coming from the guy who couldn’t even win preselection for the SA Liberal party to try and enter state politics.

    At least he had a go!

    What about you?

  22. Cud Chewer
    says:
    Saturday, April 13, 2019 at 4:35 pm
    Nath where are your extensive criticisms of the maladministration of the present government, including pissing tens of billions up against the wall on a temporary network?
    *crickets*
    _________________________________
    I have given extensive criticism of the present government. Perhaps they are not as remembered as my anti-Shorten operations. That’s not my fault. I don’t have to give my credentials as a social democrat. I am for more progressive politically than the vast majority of the Shorten worshippers.

  23. “At least he had a go!

    What about you?”

    Trust you to stick up for a conservative far right nutter. You obviously missed the point. I’m not out there calling former Vice Presidents “failed politicians”. I also have no ambitions to enter politics, unlike him.

    Besides, I’m a dual citizen of the Republic of Ireland via heritage, even though I’ve never even been to Ireland. There’s no way I’d renounce it either simply to become eligible to enter politics when I have no wish to do so.

  25. Firefox @ #423 Saturday, April 13th, 2019 – 4:57 pm

    “At least he had a go!

    What about you?”

    Trust you to stick up for a conservative far right nutter. You obviously missed the point. I’m not out there calling former Vice Presidents “failed politicians”. I also have no ambitions to enter politics, unlike him.

    Besides, I’m a dual citizen of the Republic of Ireland via heritage, even though I’ve never even been to Ireland. There’s no way I’d renounce it either simply to become eligible to enter politics when I have no wish to do so.

    So, the answer is no?

  29. “So, the answer is no?”

    I’m not a failed politician because I didn’t try and become one and fail lol. You know you’re a dud when not even the SA Libs will give you a run.

    You’re starting to come across as really bitter and desperate mate, kinda like Kenny.

  30. Mumble wonders the same thing I did when I heard she was standing this election.

    Peter BrentVerified account@mumbletwits
    1h1 hour ago
    Why Parke wanted to run in Curtin in first place a mystery. No hope of winning. After a state seat?

  32. Firefox @ #429 Saturday, April 13th, 2019 – 5:03 pm

    “So, the answer is no?”

    I’m not a failed politician because I didn’t try and become one and fail lol. You know you’re a dud when not even the SA Libs will give you a run.

    You’re starting to come across as really bitter and desperate mate, kinda like Kenny.

    I’m actually a believer in the democratic process and tip my hat to anyone prepared to put themselves on the line for what they believe. That does not mean I support any particular person or their policies. But, gobshites like you could never understand that.

  33. Has any commenter or journalist in the media pointed out how rich it is for the party which encouraged and celebrated the departure of motor vehicle manufacturing from this country, to be shedding crocodile tears now over the prospect of tradies eventually bidding goodbye to overseas-produced petrol vehicles?

  34. Simon² Katich® says:
    Saturday, April 13, 2019 at 3:37 pm

    Don’t let the flyscreen hit you on the arse on the way out!

    I am sure PB has one of those coloured fly strip door curtains.

    Recycled plastic with all the colours of the rainbow.

  35. We’re 25k south of Forster, but have some Labor-voting friends there. They moved up from Melbourne to be near their daughter, but the wife half of the couple told me the other day she feels so politically isolated up here she wouldn’t mind moving back south to Victoria.

    We’ve rounded up most of the Labor types here in our own little village for an election night barbeque. There are so few of us that it’s all secret signals and code words, almost like contacting the French Resistance under Nazi occupation.

    The area is so egregiously neglected by the Libs it isn’t funny. But the locals just don’t seem to care about it.

  36. Venn

    Not sure whether you’re joking. Julian Hill MP is the Federal Member for the Bruce electorate in the Australian Parliament.

  38. The area is so egregiously neglected by the Libs it isn’t funny. But the locals just don’t seem to care about it.

    That used to be here until voters tossed out Wilson Tuckey. THAT got the Liberals’ attention, and once they regained the seat, our MP does a good job of appearing to care about his electorate.

  39. On Morrison’s bleating about Tanya Plibersek’s point about the foreign ownership of Adani, if Morrison wants to gratuitously amplify that point, so that even more voters are reminded of that mining company’s ownership, he can be Labor’s guest I’m sure!

  40. Steve Davis

    Are you going to pay up on the tips you will lose on Election Day as i know you will lose those tips as our great LNP will win that election

  41. Foreign direct investment – equity investment rather than debt or portfolio investment – is good for this economy. Direct investment is usually long-term (patient), and most often brings associated technologies, market links, personnel and cross-cultural connections. Australia’s share of global cross-border investment has been declining for decades. It would be very helpful if this could be reversed, especially in new-economy sectors including renewable energy and related technologies and manufacturing capacity, in IT products, in bio-tech and medi-tech, in aviation, aeronautics, aerospace and maritime products and services.

    We would benefit immensely by becoming a destination for such inbound investment.

    It will never happen while the LNP are in office.

  42. BB@4:26pm
    What is wrong with you? You supported Daley’s comments and now you are supporting Tanya P’s comments.
    What about all those foreign companies from USA and UK which opened theie shops here. Why don’t we call that we can’t rely on those Britain company or that American company to brings jobs.

  43. “I’m actually a believer in the democratic process and tip my hat to anyone prepared to put themselves on the line for what they believe. That does not mean I support any particular person or their policies. But, gobshites like you could never understand that.”

    Nah mate, you’re just another right wing troll who foams at the mouth at the mere mention of the Greens. You’re so blinded by your hate for the Greens and their members like me that you’re even willing to reduce yourself to sticking up for Murdoch propaganda merchants like Kenny.

    I do plenty to advance my views and actually put my money where my mouth is. I’m a proud and active member of the NSW Greens. That’s why I drive you crazy.

  45. Surely anyone seriously taken in by that Pentecostal garbage must have serious questions asked about their sanity.

    Or under the influence of psychedelic drugs.

  46. Firefox @ #443 Saturday, April 13th, 2019 – 5:20 pm

    “I’m actually a believer in the democratic process and tip my hat to anyone prepared to put themselves on the line for what they believe. That does not mean I support any particular person or their policies. But, gobshites like you could never understand that.”

    Nah mate, you’re just another right wing troll who foams at the mouth at the mere mention of the Greens. You’re so blinded by your hate for the Greens and their members like me that you’re even willing to reduce yourself to sticking up for Murdoch propaganda merchants like Kenny.

    I do plenty to advance my views and actually put my money where my mouth is. I’m a proud and active member of the NSW Greens. That’s why I drive you crazy.

    Everything but personal commitment.

    Just another gobshite!

  47. You know what amazes me about Bill Shorten?

    He is always so calm.

    He was asked a couple of curly questions today at the Central Coast Town Hall about Julian Assange and Adani. Just calmly answered them, directly and so well that he was applauded for his answers.

    What a guy!

  48. Simon. When have I ever supported returning the government? The last week or so you have turned into a raving ALP nuffty.

    I will leave the first sentence to the chooks. As for raving ALP nuffty, I am a raving anti current Liberal National Coalition. They are a danger to my childrens future.

  49. Ven, having my comments here parsed by your good self is a privilege I don’t deserve. So you have no need to bother.

    Thanks anyway.

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