Election minus five weeks

Candidates on both sides of the aisle drop out of contention, Peter Dutton suffers a self-inflicted wound in Dickson, and Shooters Fishers and Farmers rein in their expectations.

Two days in the campaign, and already much to relate:

• Labor’s audacious gambit of running former Fremantle MP Melissa Parke in Curtin has proved short-lived, after a controversy brewed over comments she had made critical of Israel. Parke announced her withdrawal after the Herald Sun presented the Labor campaign with claims she had told a meeting of WA Labor for Palestine that she could “remember vividly” – presumably not from first-hand experience – a pregnant refugee being ordered to drink bleach at a Gaza checkpoint. Parke is also said to have spoken of Israel’s “influence in our political system and foreign policy”, no doubt bringing to the party hierarchy’s mind the turmoil that has lately engulfed the British Labour Party in relation to such matters. In her statement last night, Parke said her views were “well known, but I don’t want them to be a running distraction from electing a Labor government”. James Campbell of the Herald Sun notes the forum was also attended by Parkes’ successor in Fremantle, Josh Wilson.

• Meanwhile, Liberal Party vetting processes have caused the withdrawal on Section 44 grounds of three candidates in who-cares seats in Melbourne. They are Cooper candidate Helen Jackson, who dug her heels in when told her no-chance candidacy required her to abandon her job at Australia Post, so that the integrity of executive-legislative relations might be preserved; Lalor candidate Kate Oski, who is in danger of being Polish; and Wills candidate Vaishali Ghosh, who was, as The Age put it in a report I hope no one from overseas reads, “forced to step aside over her Indian heritage”.

• Peter Dutton has been under fire for his rhetorical overreach against Ali France, the Labor candidate in his marginal seat of Dickson. Dutton accused France, who had her leg amputated after being hit by a car in 2011, of “using her disability as an excuse” for not moving into the electorate. France lives a short distance outside it, and points to the $100,000 of her compensation money she has spent making her existing home fully wheelchair accessible. Labor has taken the opportunity to point to Dutton’s failed attempt from 2009 to move to the safer seat of McPherson on the Gold Coast, where he owns a $2.3 million beachside holiday home, and by all accounts spends a great deal of his time. Dutton refused to apologise for the comments yesterday, while Scott Morrison baselessly asserted that they were taken out of context.

• Greg Brown of The Australian reports Robert Borsak, leader of Shooters Fishers and Farmers and one of the party’s state upper house MPs, concedes the party is struggling to recruit candidates, and will not repeat its state election feat of winning seats in the lower house. Nonetheless, it has Orange deputy mayor Sam Romano lined up as its candidate for Calare and plans to run in Eden-Monaro, Parkes and possibly New England. This follows suggestions the party might pose a threat to the Nationals in Parkes and Farrer, which largely correspond with the state seats of Barwon and Murray, which the party won at last month’s state election. Calare encompasses Orange, which Shooters have held since a November 2016 by-election.

• “I don’t trust our polling at all”, says “a senior federal Liberal MP” cited by John Ferguson in The Australian, apropos the party’s prospects in Victoria. It is not clear if the source was being optimistic or pessimistic, but the report identifies a range of opinion within the Liberal camp extending from only two or three losses in Victoria – likewise identified as a “worst case scenario” by Labor sources – to as many as seven.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,433 comments on “Election minus five weeks”

Comments Page 8 of 29
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  2. Im noting Waynes tips for my election betting.So I will be betting Labor on all these seats.Cheers bot.
    Lindsey
    Herbert
    Hotham
    Bruce
    Braddon
    Bass
    Lyons

  3. In relation to the Gaza strip. It’s also true that the actions of Egypt have added to the woes of the inhabitants of Gaza. Although admittedly, Egypt has done so to secure Israeli support for US cash.

  4. Peter Stanton says:
    Saturday, April 13, 2019 at 2:28 pm
    When defending Dutton’s brutish comments Morrison resorted to the old standby of “his words were taken out of context”. When this excuse is used I usually ponder what context would make the words acceptable . In this case as in most other cases I am unable to conceive of any such context.

    ___________________________________________

    Love your work!

  5. Peter Stanton says:
    Saturday, April 13, 2019 at 2:28 pm

    When defending Dutton’s brutish comments Morrison resorted to the old standby of “his words were taken out of context”. When this excuse is used I usually ponder what context would make the words acceptable . In this case as in most other cases I am unable to conceive of any such context.

    “Out of context” – they were said and unfortunately heard.

  6. nath says:
    Saturday, April 13, 2019 at 2:38 pm

    Barney, everything Shorten does highlights how great he is. Even picking his nose.

    Not so, but it paints a very different picture to your narrative of him.

  7. Can you recall what was the frequency of polling during the last federal election campaign?

    Not specifically, but Ipsos went fortnightly, Newspoll was weekly in the last three weeks of the campaign, Essential was still weekly back then, and there was ReachTEL up the wazoo, and voluminous seat polling. This time I think we can expect rather less.

  8. Wow,
    The Liberal and Green plants have done their job well.
    This site is now unreadable.
    I was expecting to have an unmediated source of news that avoided all the usual bias. I expect to pay for my news, subscribe to a variety of other sources, happily pay for The Age, contribute similar amount to the Guardian.
    This site had previously been excellent but now just toxic, I suspect that I will be one of many that may take a break from reading PB for a while. I expect that was the aim of these people, you all know who they are.

  9. Well, one can only dream of a similar attitude in Australia
    “He added: “The old abstraction licences were based on historical priorities that included providing more water in summer and the needs of lots of mills in the Chew Valley – we had cotton, flour and gunpowder mills and lots of industry. Nowadays we would expect the ecology of the river to be first and foremost.””
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/apr/12/lost-river-returns-somerset-70-years-after-dried-up

  10. Our plan:

    – Lead the world on climate action by phasing out coal stations, exports and legislating against new coal mines.

    -Achieve 100% renewable energy by funding a massive investment in infrastructure that will transform our energy system.

    – 180,000 jobs established by creating new industries, jobs and supply chains right across the economy.

    – Reduce bills by $200 a year by creating a publicly owned energy provider and subsidising investment in solar power and batteries.

    – Build a multi-billion dollar clean energy export industry to replace coal exports.

    – Create a $1 billion fund to retain, upskill and invest in workers and local communities so no one is left behind.

    https://greens.org.au/platform/renewables#repower

    *waits for the right wing brigade to label it EXTREME*

  14. Steve Davis

    Your wrong dude

    Herbert 54/46 to LNP
    Braddon 53/47 to LNP
    Bass 54/46 to LNP
    Hotham 53/47 to LNP
    Lyons. 54/46 to LNP
    Bruce. 55/45 to LNP

  16. “Interesting that earlier people were having a go at Shorten for standing back and letting others speak saying he should be the one speaking.

    For me it highlights a strength for Labor under Shorten, it’s not about him, it’s the team.”

    Barn…….its a strategic emphasis by the ALP that has been in place for some time. That has given the idea of ALP Unity, Well oiled TEAM time to sink in before the election campaign. ANY miss-step by the Coalition that can be spun in terms of unity (Morrison being afraid of potato’s?? 🙂 ) just emphasizes this. Notice one of the “slogans” from the ALP worked into any statements they can is “cuts and chaos”. 🙂

  20. Dovey @ #357 Saturday, April 13th, 2019 – 2:52 pm

    Wow,
    The Liberal and Green plants have done their job well.
    This site is now unreadable.
    I was expecting to have an unmediated source of news that avoided all the usual bias. I expect to pay for my news, subscribe to a variety of other sources, happily pay for The Age, contribute similar amount to the Guardian.
    This site had previously been excellent but now just toxic, I suspect that I will be one of many that may take a break from reading PB for a while. I expect that was the aim of these people, you all know who they are.

    Don’t let the flyscreen hit you on the arse on the way out!

  22. At the Blackburn Market this morning where I was campaigning with Greens Chisholm candidate Luke Arthur, there was a large contingent of Labor supporters and members with Jennifer Yang.

    Jennifer and local Labor people such as Peter Chandler came up to our table and engaged at length in conversation. Out here it is all very friendly and cooperative between the two parties. Smiles all round and happy chatter.

    It is in her interests to do so as she needs every Greens preferences she can garner to win this marginal seat and cooperative relations with the local Greens is an important factor for her in achieving the aim of winning the seat.

  23. Steve Davis

    No you have your money on my tips which you will lose and will have to pay me out on them the money you will owe me will be 14,000 dollars

  26. William Bowe says:
    Saturday, April 13, 2019 at 3:11 pm

    I hope you all got on Winx.

    Yes, I could really use three cents right now.

    Wouldn’t they round it up to 5 cents? 🙂

  31. Rex Douglas @ #360 Saturday, April 13th, 2019 – 2:59 pm

    Our plan:

    – Lead the world on climate action by phasing out coal stations, exports and legislating against new coal mines.

    -Achieve 100% renewable energy by funding a massive investment in infrastructure that will transform our energy system.

    – 180,000 jobs established by creating new industries, jobs and supply chains right across the economy.

    – Reduce bills by $200 a year by creating a publicly owned energy provider and subsidising investment in solar power and batteries.

    – Build a multi-billion dollar clean energy export industry to replace coal exports.

    – Create a $1 billion fund to retain, upskill and invest in workers and local communities so no one is left behind.

    https://greens.org.au/platform/renewables#repower

    *waits for the right wing brigade to label it EXTREME*

    It’s a wish list Rex, not a policy platform.

  33. The frequency of polling in elections these days depends on how well the Libs are polling. For example, when Labor started to surge ahead in the last couple of weeks in the Victorian election, polling disappeared until the last one or two days (the media realised by then that they couldn’t help the coalition at that stage) because it no longer fitted the media’s narrative.

  35. EGW @ #380 Saturday, April 13th, 2019 – 3:29 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #360 Saturday, April 13th, 2019 – 2:59 pm

    Our plan:

    – Lead the world on climate action by phasing out coal stations, exports and legislating against new coal mines.

    -Achieve 100% renewable energy by funding a massive investment in infrastructure that will transform our energy system.

    – 180,000 jobs established by creating new industries, jobs and supply chains right across the economy.

    – Reduce bills by $200 a year by creating a publicly owned energy provider and subsidising investment in solar power and batteries.

    – Build a multi-billion dollar clean energy export industry to replace coal exports.

    – Create a $1 billion fund to retain, upskill and invest in workers and local communities so no one is left behind.

    https://greens.org.au/platform/renewables#repower

    *waits for the right wing brigade to label it EXTREME*

    It’s a wish list Rex, not a policy platform.

    As much substance as belly button fluff!

  36. Sohar @ #383 Saturday, April 13th, 2019 – 3:31 pm

    The frequency of polling in elections these days depends on how well the Libs are polling. For example, when Labor started to surge ahead in the last couple of weeks in the Victorian election, polling disappeared until the last one or two days (the media realised by then that they couldn’t help the coalition at that stage) because it no longer fitted the media’s narrative.

    What utter rubbish.
    How would polling assist either side?
    Honestly, there is just so much delusion on this site about polling it is incredible.

  38. Don’t let the flyscreen hit you on the arse on the way out!

    I am sure PB has one of those coloured fly strip door curtains.

  39. Climate change is an issue in Chisholm.

    At the Blackburn market there was also a large contingent of community activists from several environmental groups, including the grassroots Stop Adani campaign.

    An increasing number of voters understand what steps are needed to take real and rapid action on AGW. They understand the existential threat of AGW and what science demands must be done to mitigate the effects of accelerating AGW.

    The Greens CC policy is driven by evidence-based science.

  40. Peter Dutton
    ✔
    @PeterDutton_MP
    I apologise to Ms France for my comments yesterday. My argument with the Labor candidate is about how our respective policies would affect the people of Dickson.

  42. No worries Mr Dutton,thanks to your unkind remarks, I’ve just donated some cash to Ali France to help with her campaign.I hope a lot more Australians do the same.

  43. Chris only has to keep the retirees in Hervey Bay happy.

    steve davis @ #390 Saturday, April 13th, 2019 – 3:45 pm

    Peter Dutton
    ✔
    @PeterDutton_MP
    I apologise to Ms France for my comments yesterday. My argument with the Labor candidate is about how our respective policies would affect the people of Dickson.

    The dick can’t even apologise decently – and on twitter! If he’s got any brains, he’s already out looking for a job. Not only has he soiled his reputation (and continues to do so) he’s given his opponent, who has a wonderful backstory, a national profile. This is like scoring an own-goal from the half-way line.

  47. Pegasus @ #389 Saturday, April 13th, 2019 – 3:44 pm

    Climate change is an issue in Chisholm.

    At the Blackburn market there was also a large contingent of community activists from several environmental groups, including the grassroots Stop Adani campaign.

    An increasing number of voters understand what steps are needed to take real and rapid action on AGW. They understand the existential threat of AGW and what science demands must be done to mitigate the effects of accelerating AGW.

    The Greens CC policy is driven by evidence-based science.

    A major part of any serious climate policy by Australia has to be using whatever influence we can muster to get major greenhouse gas emitters on board. Never seems to get mentioned by Greens who think all that is involved is virtue signalling.

  50. Pegasus @ #388 Saturday, April 13th, 2019 – 3:44 pm

    Climate change is an issue in Chisholm.

    At the Blackburn market there was also a large contingent of community activists from several environmental groups, including the grassroots Stop Adani campaign.

    An increasing number of voters understand what steps are needed to take real and rapid action on AGW. They understand the existential threat of AGW and what science demands must be done to mitigate the effects of accelerating AGW.

    The Greens CC policy is driven by evidence-based science.

    …as opposed to being driven by the commercial requirements of the major party donors

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