Election minus five weeks

Candidates on both sides of the aisle drop out of contention, Peter Dutton suffers a self-inflicted wound in Dickson, and Shooters Fishers and Farmers rein in their expectations.

Two days in the campaign, and already much to relate:

• Labor’s audacious gambit of running former Fremantle MP Melissa Parke in Curtin has proved short-lived, after a controversy brewed over comments she had made critical of Israel. Parke announced her withdrawal after the Herald Sun presented the Labor campaign with claims she had told a meeting of WA Labor for Palestine that she could “remember vividly” – presumably not from first-hand experience – a pregnant refugee being ordered to drink bleach at a Gaza checkpoint. Parke is also said to have spoken of Israel’s “influence in our political system and foreign policy”, no doubt bringing to the party hierarchy’s mind the turmoil that has lately engulfed the British Labour Party in relation to such matters. In her statement last night, Parke said her views were “well known, but I don’t want them to be a running distraction from electing a Labor government”. James Campbell of the Herald Sun notes the forum was also attended by Parkes’ successor in Fremantle, Josh Wilson.

• Meanwhile, Liberal Party vetting processes have caused the withdrawal on Section 44 grounds of three candidates in who-cares seats in Melbourne. They are Cooper candidate Helen Jackson, who dug her heels in when told her no-chance candidacy required her to abandon her job at Australia Post, so that the integrity of executive-legislative relations might be preserved; Lalor candidate Kate Oski, who is in danger of being Polish; and Wills candidate Vaishali Ghosh, who was, as The Age put it in a report I hope no one from overseas reads, “forced to step aside over her Indian heritage”.

• Peter Dutton has been under fire for his rhetorical overreach against Ali France, the Labor candidate in his marginal seat of Dickson. Dutton accused France, who had her leg amputated after being hit by a car in 2011, of “using her disability as an excuse” for not moving into the electorate. France lives a short distance outside it, and points to the $100,000 of her compensation money she has spent making her existing home fully wheelchair accessible. Labor has taken the opportunity to point to Dutton’s failed attempt from 2009 to move to the safer seat of McPherson on the Gold Coast, where he owns a $2.3 million beachside holiday home, and by all accounts spends a great deal of his time. Dutton refused to apologise for the comments yesterday, while Scott Morrison baselessly asserted that they were taken out of context.

Greg Brown of The Australian reports Robert Borsak, leader of Shooters Fishers and Farmers and one of the party’s state upper house MPs, concedes the party is struggling to recruit candidates, and will not repeat its state election feat of winning seats in the lower house. Nonetheless, it has Orange deputy mayor Sam Romano lined up as its candidate for Calare and plans to run in Eden-Monaro, Parkes and possibly New England. This follows suggestions the party might pose a threat to the Nationals in Parkes and Farrer, which largely correspond with the state seats of Barwon and Murray, which the party won at last month’s state election. Calare encompasses Orange, which Shooters have held since a November 2016 by-election.

• “I don’t trust our polling at all”, says “a senior federal Liberal MP” cited by John Ferguson in The Australian, apropos the party’s prospects in Victoria. It is not clear if the source was being optimistic or pessimistic, but the report identifies a range of opinion within the Liberal camp extending from only two or three losses in Victoria – likewise identified as a “worst case scenario” by Labor sources – to as many as seven.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,433 comments on “Election minus five weeks”

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  1. Foreign direct investment is only useful if the investors are imparting skills, know-how, and technology that our nation could not otherwise get. The only foreign investment that should be approved is the kind that meets those criteria in a rigorous, evidence-based manner. If the foreign investors decide to pull out, all plant, equipment, and intellectual property developed by the venture should become the property of the national government and / or the Australian workers. The national government can and should impose these kinds of conditions on foreign investment applications.

    Foreign portfolio investment – investment in local share and bond markets – is not really necessary. We should not worry if it is not forthcoming. The Australian Government can always use fiscal policy to ensure adequate levels of investment in the macroeconomy, and it can always use industry policy to target the investment in ways that promote community wellbeing and ecological sustainability.

    Overall, if the skills, know-how, and technology can be developed locally, the federal government should use fiscal policy and industry policy to make it happen. Fiscal policy and industry policy, combined with trade controls and capital controls where appropriate, are the most potent policy levers that the national government has to increase the nation’s productivity level and guarantee that the productivity gains raise everybody’s living standards, not just the wealth and power of a few.

  2. Rex Douglas @ #466 Saturday, April 13th, 2019 – 5:46 pm

    C@tmomma @ #461 Saturday, April 13th, 2019 – 5:43 pm

    Pegasus @ #459 Saturday, April 13th, 2019 – 5:41 pm

    Not that it was a closed meeting but we wanted to have it open to the general public and not political types.

    No doubt the meeting was stacked with Labor ‘political types’, sprinkled throughout the crowd, who enthusiastically geed up the rest of the audience by roundly clapping in response to all of Shorten’s answers to questions from the floor.

    Unlike The Greens who have all their meetings behind closed doors so they can intimidate and bully the members not a part of the ruling clique.

    Not even Labor are stupid enough to send Bill into a potentially hostile ‘town hall’. Of course it was stacked.

    In my experience Labor do not stack their meetings.
    Sure, party members and keen supporters will want to attend and will do so in numbers.
    But no-one is excluded and there are plenty of others attend.

  3. Cud Chewer
    says:
    Saturday, April 13, 2019 at 6:00 pm
    I have given extensive criticism of the present government.
    Remind me. All I can remember is your lame and insincere response to the fact that the present government has wasted tens of billions on a temporary network.
    How about the way the Liberals are fundamentally about selfishness and fear?
    How about the way the Liberals (Federally) just don’t get mass transit?
    How about the way the Liberals have cemented themselves to climate denial?
    How about the way the Liberals having been anti-science in general?
    How about cronyism and corruption? The GBRF? The Murray Darling?
    ________________________________________
    Shove off CC. I’ve criticised the government for more than just that. They are also on the way out, which is way my focus has shifted to what’s approaching.

  4. The perception of Shorten being a fake is fed by stories like this – hobnobbing with the uber rich.

    https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/someone-s-got-to-pay-for-the-fliers-bill-shorten-lunches-with-australia-s-richest-man-20190412-p51doe.html

    But the Opposition Leader has no such qualms about breaking bread with Anthony Pratt, Australia’s richest man and generous political benefactor.

    On the second day of the federal election campaign – having toured the Ryde Medical Centre in the Liberal electorate of Bennelong with health spokeswoman Catherine King and Labor senator Kristina Keneally – Shorten made a detour to Pratt’s Sydney luxury apartment overlooking Circular Quay and Sydney Harbour.

    He was there for lunch with the cardboard box king who, according to the Australian Financial Review, has a net worth of $12.9 billion.
    :::
    During the last election, Pratt shelled out almost $800,000 for Turnbull’s campaign.

    This time, it is a more bipartisan effort – he’s also hosted a fundraiser for Prime Minister Scott Morrison and the Coalition.

    And as one Labor staffer put it: “Someone’s got to pay for the fliers”.
    ::
    A few days later, outgoing Jobs Minister Kelly O’Dwyer makes her contribution to her replacement in Higgins, the Liberal candidate Katie Allen, with a one-off $195-a-head cocktail function.

    “Selling out fast,” as they say.

  5. Pegasus @ #493 Saturday, April 13th, 2019 – 6:00 pm

    Labor’s Chisholm candidate Jennifer Yang would not be happy with Cat’s overtly vitriolic anti-Greens sentiments. Today at the Blackburn Market she purposely engaged the local Greens in a lengthy conversation at our table/stall. Pleasant civility and cooperation all round as she knows she needs every Greens preferences to win this marginal seat.

    Peg, Labor get 80% of Greens prefs without being nice. Everyone knows you guys are just a post box.

  6. I’ve been waiting for Peg to pounce on that story.

    he’s also hosted a fundraiser for Prime Minister Scott Morrison and the Coalition.

  7. Confessions @ #487 Saturday, April 13th, 2019 – 5:56 pm

    C@t:

    How about this one?

    ” rel=”nofollow”>

    Gulp! Yep, got me. I look like I’m about to cry! Probably just after the lady with Stage 4 Breast Cancer had told her story about having spent $10000 already out of her pocket for treatment, but she said she wasn’t complaining because that’s the way the system is. She just wanted to say how great it was that people coming after her, if hopefully Labor get elected, won’t be in the same position as she is.

  8. Greensborough Growler @ #505 Saturday, April 13th, 2019 – 6:07 pm

    Pegasus @ #493 Saturday, April 13th, 2019 – 6:00 pm

    Labor’s Chisholm candidate Jennifer Yang would not be happy with Cat’s overtly vitriolic anti-Greens sentiments. Today at the Blackburn Market she purposely engaged the local Greens in a lengthy conversation at our table/stall. Pleasant civility and cooperation all round as she knows she needs every Greens preferences to win this marginal seat.

    Peg, Labor get 80% of Greens prefs without being nice. Everyone knows you guys are just a post box.

    I only dislike the spiteful Greens who could never say a nice word about Labor supporters on this blog if their life depended on it. The Greens’ in our local area, on the other hand, are lovely.

  9. EGW

    Stacking an audience means domination not exclusion as far as I know. Exactly what you are describing. Very sensibly.

    As I said it prevents the LNP sending party operatives of their own to dominate proceedings. I would be very disappointed in Labor if their Town Hall meetings were only answering LNP party people.

    Its a balancing act. One it’s noteworthy that the LNP are too scared to do.
    The important part is having enough voters that are not Labor people so it doesn’t end up a Labor Party Branch meeting.

    That’s just sensible planning to avoid chaos. Not anything underhand or unethical or bad

  10. TPOF @ #507 Saturday, April 13th, 2019 – 6:11 pm

    C@tmomma says:
    Saturday, April 13, 2019 at 5:53 pm
    Pegasus @ #474 Saturday, April 13th, 2019 – 5:50 pm

    Firefox,

    Congratulations on a great effort in Ballina given Tamara had a swing of 4.7% towards her on first preferences.
    And congratulations to Janelle Saffin in Lismore, who beat The Greens candidate and The Nationals candidate.

    _______________________________________

    Oh, from the celebration I thought the Green had actually won.

    Yeah, they broke out the Kumbayah Mineral water and everything.

  11. C@tmomma @ #506 Saturday, April 13th, 2019 – 6:11 pm

    Confessions @ #487 Saturday, April 13th, 2019 – 5:56 pm

    C@t:

    How about this one?

    <a href="” rel=”nofollow”>” rel=”nofollow”>

    Gulp! Yep, got me. I look like I’m about to cry! Probably just after the lady with Stage 4 Breast Cancer had told her story about having spent $10000 already out of her pocket for treatment, but she said she wasn’t complaining because that’s the way the system is. She just wanted to say how great it was that people coming after her, if hopefully Labor get elected, won’t be in the same position as she is.

    The thing about that photo is the audience is engaged and listening.

  12. I see The Greens’ partisan doesn’t mention that Anthony Pratt is an old friend of Bill Shorten’s. As nath likes to spitefully point out, as if the leader of the party that stands up for workers can’t have friends in high places, that it was Anthony Pratt’s father, Richard Pratt, who loaned Bill his private jet to come back from America to Australia to go to Beaconsfield after the mine disaster.

    But it seems to me that people who support small parties, have equally small minds.

  13. C@t:

    There are lots of oldies in the audience, so I’m assuming Shorten received quite a few questions about franking credits and the like?

  14. Anyway Simon, say what you want say but don’t direct shit at me.

    There there. I though t you were made of sterner stuff. Must be that sweet pure water you drink.

    I dont remember directing shit at you but at least now I have been called a nuffty Green, nuffty Liberal and nuffty Labor (and nuffty Gramscian… who was that?)

  15. From what was televised, Fess, no.

    Most questions seemed to be about health and NDIS and First Australians (justice/youth incarceration)

  16. EGW @ #428 Saturday, April 13th, 2019 – 5:02 pm

    lizzie @ #426 Saturday, April 13th, 2019 – 4:59 pm

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/you-ve-killed-me-can-i-please-phone-my-family-a-story-of-survival-20190409-p51cdv.html

    On guns, drugs and addiction. Worth reading.

    John Silvester writes some great articles.

    Thanks. That is a great article. I loved this bit:

    That is until one of the police present stepped forward with a second medical opinion that he delivered quite forcefully: “This is bullshit, he’s going in the chopper.” So room was made for both to fly to The Alfred on the one flight.

  17. Peg @ 6.07

    The perception of Shorten being a fake is fed by stories like this – hobnobbing with the uber rich.

    _____________________________________

    I don’t know what’s worse:

    The Liberals falsely claiming that Bill Shorten is engaging in a class war or the Greens attacking Shorten for NOT engaging in a class war.

  18. TPOF @ #526 Saturday, April 13th, 2019 – 6:24 pm

    Peg @ 6.07

    The perception of Shorten being a fake is fed by stories like this – hobnobbing with the uber rich.

    _____________________________________

    I don’t know what’s worse:

    The Liberals falsely claiming that Bill Shorten is engaging in a class war or the Greens attacking Shorten for NOT engaging in a class war.

    Watch Bill. He doesn’t fucking care.

  19. Confessions @ #518 Saturday, April 13th, 2019 – 6:20 pm

    C@t:

    There are lots of oldies in the audience, so I’m assuming Shorten received quite a few questions about franking credits and the like?

    Not one. They’re mostly Aged and Disability Pensioners.

    Questions about Adani, Assange and restoring the funding to the Aboriginal Legal Service were the most controversial.

  20. jenauthor says:
    Saturday, April 13, 2019 at 6:20 pm
    TPOF

    You having your period? (Sorry couldn’t resist! – Crass, I know!!!!)

    __________________

    Bloody hell!

  21. TPOF

    To be fair to Pegasus. Her introduction was about perception not reality.

    Reality.

    Labor is like the Greens a very long way away from being for the top end of town.

    From my viewpoint. Labor people should say Hell yeah it’s Class War!
    Its what’s needed to restore equality. Let’s Change The Rules.

  22. He doesn’t fucking care.

    Yes, it’s patently obvious he doesn’t really care about those undeserving unemployed. 25 years of bipartisan support to not raise Newstart in real terms.

    “Hard-working Australians, working families, working mums” all labels of exclusion reinforcing the pejorative “dole bludgers”.

    A unity ticket.

  23. Simon² Katich®
    says:
    Saturday, April 13, 2019 at 6:21 pm
    Anyway Simon, say what you want say but don’t direct shit at me.
    There there. I though t you were made of sterner stuff. Must be that sweet pure water you drink.
    ______________________________________
    I’m having a bad day. Also lately I’ve been haunted by nightmares that I have not experienced since childhood. My Foxtel is also playing up.

    Plus I’m kinda sick of being called a supporter of the Liberals. If I was, I would just fucking say it and run with the conservative shit I would believe in if that was the case.

  24. I see Pegasus the partisan Green is ignoring Bill Shorten’s comments about raising Newstart just yesterday. Jeez she’s a spiteful piece of work.

  25. Pegasus @ #493 Saturday, April 13th, 2019 – 6:00 pm

    Labor’s Chisholm candidate Jennifer Yang would not be happy with Cat’s overtly vitriolic anti-Greens sentiments. Today at the Blackburn Market she purposely engaged the local Greens in a lengthy conversation at our table/stall. Pleasant civility and cooperation all round as she knows she needs every Greens preferences to win this marginal seat.

    Perhaps those Greens are sane unlike some on PB?
    In any event, it is not the Greens members whose preferences are needed, it is the Greens voters, a much larger number.

  26. Pegasus @ #535 Saturday, April 13th, 2019 – 6:30 pm

    He doesn’t fucking care.

    Yes, it’s patently obvious he doesn’t really care about those undeserving unemployed. 25 years of bipartisan support to not raise Newstart in real terms.

    “Hard-working Australians, working families, working mums” all labels of exclusion reinforcing the pejorative “dole bludgers”.

    A unity ticket.

    You and the Greens are like a squeeky toy. My dog destroys squeeky toys!

  27. Abbott’s team looks like their attracting lots of by-passers … not!

    There was a scrum in Strathfield when I went to the shops late morning. Silly man did more than hug someone who didn’t want to be hugged, he also spoke Chinese to a Korean (he should have been briefed that Strathfield is Korean heartland – the cake shop he went to was run by Koreans).

    I resisted the temptation to go and shout abuse (am seething over his acquiescence over Dutton’s bastardry) and merely threw my hands up to fend off a flyer being shoved in my face by a Lib. I was wearing bright red … he should have known better.

  28. C@tmomma @ #541 Saturday, April 13th, 2019 – 6:34 pm

    Confessions @ #539 Saturday, April 13th, 2019 – 6:33 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #531 Saturday, April 13th, 2019 – 4:28 pm

    Abbott is a leaner!

    <a href="<a href="” rel=”nofollow”>” rel=”nofollow”>” rel=”nofollow”>

    OMG if you were under serious threat to hold your seat, why in blazes would you unleash Piers Akerman upon unsuspecting voters to campaign for you??

    To badger them into submission? 😆

    Doesn’t look like a happy camp, does it?

  29. Bill Shorten lunches with Anthony Pratt during an election campaign for a reason.
    So the question is – what’s in it for Anthony Pratt ??

  30. “I only dislike the spiteful Greens who could never say a nice word about Labor supporters on this blog if their life depended on it. The Greens’ in our local area, on the other hand, are lovely.”

    The strategy should be for the Greens and Labor to prefrence each other ahead of the Coalition. When it comes to dealing with the Libs and Nats we need to remember that “the enemy of my enemy is my friend”. That doesn’t mean we can’t disagree and have robust battles over who wins out of the two of us but we can agree to make sure that they do not win. In seats like Ballina and Lismore where the Nats finish first on primaries it’s critical that we prefrence each other. We obviously want to win but if we can’t we’d rather see Labor win than the Nats. I’d hope Labor sees it the same way too and I know many of their supporters do.

    You would have liked the atmosphere at my local booth in the NSW election. When I walked in to vote the volunteers from the Greens, Labor and Nats were all standing around together having what seemed to be a friendly chat and taking turns to tend to the all important democracy sausages. It was a rather strange sight actually and a nice remember that we can be respectful even when we strongly disagree.

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