Election minus five weeks

Candidates on both sides of the aisle drop out of contention, Peter Dutton suffers a self-inflicted wound in Dickson, and Shooters Fishers and Farmers rein in their expectations.

Two days in the campaign, and already much to relate:

• Labor’s audacious gambit of running former Fremantle MP Melissa Parke in Curtin has proved short-lived, after a controversy brewed over comments she had made critical of Israel. Parke announced her withdrawal after the Herald Sun presented the Labor campaign with claims she had told a meeting of WA Labor for Palestine that she could “remember vividly” – presumably not from first-hand experience – a pregnant refugee being ordered to drink bleach at a Gaza checkpoint. Parke is also said to have spoken of Israel’s “influence in our political system and foreign policy”, no doubt bringing to the party hierarchy’s mind the turmoil that has lately engulfed the British Labour Party in relation to such matters. In her statement last night, Parke said her views were “well known, but I don’t want them to be a running distraction from electing a Labor government”. James Campbell of the Herald Sun notes the forum was also attended by Parkes’ successor in Fremantle, Josh Wilson.

• Meanwhile, Liberal Party vetting processes have caused the withdrawal on Section 44 grounds of three candidates in who-cares seats in Melbourne. They are Cooper candidate Helen Jackson, who dug her heels in when told her no-chance candidacy required her to abandon her job at Australia Post, so that the integrity of executive-legislative relations might be preserved; Lalor candidate Kate Oski, who is in danger of being Polish; and Wills candidate Vaishali Ghosh, who was, as The Age put it in a report I hope no one from overseas reads, “forced to step aside over her Indian heritage”.

• Peter Dutton has been under fire for his rhetorical overreach against Ali France, the Labor candidate in his marginal seat of Dickson. Dutton accused France, who had her leg amputated after being hit by a car in 2011, of “using her disability as an excuse” for not moving into the electorate. France lives a short distance outside it, and points to the $100,000 of her compensation money she has spent making her existing home fully wheelchair accessible. Labor has taken the opportunity to point to Dutton’s failed attempt from 2009 to move to the safer seat of McPherson on the Gold Coast, where he owns a $2.3 million beachside holiday home, and by all accounts spends a great deal of his time. Dutton refused to apologise for the comments yesterday, while Scott Morrison baselessly asserted that they were taken out of context.

Greg Brown of The Australian reports Robert Borsak, leader of Shooters Fishers and Farmers and one of the party’s state upper house MPs, concedes the party is struggling to recruit candidates, and will not repeat its state election feat of winning seats in the lower house. Nonetheless, it has Orange deputy mayor Sam Romano lined up as its candidate for Calare and plans to run in Eden-Monaro, Parkes and possibly New England. This follows suggestions the party might pose a threat to the Nationals in Parkes and Farrer, which largely correspond with the state seats of Barwon and Murray, which the party won at last month’s state election. Calare encompasses Orange, which Shooters have held since a November 2016 by-election.

• “I don’t trust our polling at all”, says “a senior federal Liberal MP” cited by John Ferguson in The Australian, apropos the party’s prospects in Victoria. It is not clear if the source was being optimistic or pessimistic, but the report identifies a range of opinion within the Liberal camp extending from only two or three losses in Victoria – likewise identified as a “worst case scenario” by Labor sources – to as many as seven.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,433 comments on “Election minus five weeks”

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  1. You would have liked the atmosphere at my local booth in the NSW election. When I walked in to vote the volunteers from the Greens, Labor and Nats were all standing around together having what seemed to be a friendly chat and taking turns to tend to the all important democracy sausages. It was a rather strange sight actually and a nice remember that we can be respectful even when we strongly disagree.

    Exactly what happens at our booth, except substitute Liberals for Nats. We started the State election day with a coffee bought for us by a guy who used to be Doug Anthony’s Electorate Officer and campaign manager, who was handing out for the Libs that day.

  2. It’s a shoe in..

    Morrision total dork at Randwick for Wix win.. runs the crowd with a slap shake.. meanwhile Bill on the Bus watches on his phone… comments “love it when a favourite wins”

  3. The Bluey Report: Day 3

    Bluey thinks it might be a long, long campaign.

    Bluey had a bit of a chuckle about how the journos on Morrison’s bus were inveigled into a detour by the promise of a free feed and a bit of a piss up but then discovered that they had missed some Important Thing that Morrison was doing. Mugs.

    Bluey reckons that you might think that, by apologizing for sinking the slipper into a disabled woman, Dutton would get some brownie points. But the apology was typically graceless. Morrison, who forgave Dutton for being an arsehole yesterday, and who lied about Dutton’s words being taken out of context, and who then lied that the one legged woman being a Labor liar, is now lying low on the whole thing.

    Not to be outdone by Dutton in the political stupidity stakes, Parkes somehow involved herself in commentary, wtte, that Israeli officials had forced a pregnant Palestinian woman to drink bleach. Bluey wonders who dreams up this sort of shit. Must be a human trait. Anyway, Bluey reckons FMD. Shorten is a bit more sensible about this sort of stuff than the chinless wonder Corbyn. Bye, bye Parkes!
    The Liberals misplaced 3 candidates on s44 grounds but that will not, in Bluey’s view, alter matters materially, because none of them were worth a pinch of proverbial and the Liberals already had Buckley’s in those three electorates.

    Bluey watched as fine a piece of triangulation as you will ever see. Morrison opined that Labor must be racist because Plibers referred to Adani being an Indian company, so there. He then went on to link this obvious bit of horrendous racism to the anti-Chinese racism of Daley by way of Labor having ‘form’. Very, very nifty. Bluey knows that this Coalition Government is possibly the most racist Australian Government since they stopped massacring Indigenous peoples and let go of the White Australia Policy, but Morrison has Labor on the back foot on racism! Cunning as a shithouse rat.

    Bluey is not sure whether the CFMEU’s demand that Labor candidates sign a coal industry commitment will do all that much good or all that much harm to Labor’s chances in the Coal Seats or anywhere else for that matter. It probably does a bit of confirmation bias for all those who are terrified by unions.

    Bluey notes the EVs are wreaking a bit of well-deserved havoc on the Coalition. The Australia Institute did a poll (sample 1500+) in which a slim majority favoured shifting ALL sales of new vehicles to electric vehicles by 2025. Hyundai and Toyota have done some discreet public hand-wringing about the Coalition’s public policy insanity on EVs. Bluey reckons that whatever these knuckle draggers gain out in Ute Country, the Coalition has done some self-destructive damage in the leafy inner suburbs of Brissie, Sinny and Melbun.

    Bluey notes that Shorten has lost the used-car salesperson vote and the real estate agents vote. The latter will do a bit of damage because they are distributed across the continent and have mailing lists of people they intend to mislead about Labor’s policy. Bluey assumes that the real estate agents will do what real estate agents normally do to the truth. Mind you don’t step in the asbestos.

    Bluey noted that ‘The Australian’ is totally given over to fulminations about Labor’s tax, Kill Bill, sundry Culture War outrages, and how the Coalition is still in with a chance if only they will listen to Chris Kenny. McCrann reckons we will all be ruined. Again.

    Bluey notes that the usual suspects are on their high horses about how the World is outraged because of the treatment of Folau, Assange, Norvill and Parkes. What a quaddie! Bluey reckons the World does not give a stuff about any of them. Bluey had to borrow the World from the Greens for that statement.

    In the first bit of common sense for ages, the Bob’s Convoy political kiddies are not going to do something or other to outrage the Blinkies, the Blimps, and the Digs on ANZAC Day. Bluey reckons that this burst of common sense will be temporary. Bob’s Convoy reminds Bluey of 40 days and 40 nights in the political desert. For a 38 day campaign at they are overachieving on something.

    Bluey noted that Bill is up to his 81st Town Hall meeting. Gee, Bill is good at those! Natural voice. Endlessly across the topics. Personable. But, but but… assuming 100 people per meeting that means Bill has already seen 8,100 people and only has around 2,000 more meetings to cover the remaining 16, 300,000 voters on the electoral roll.

    The Nats will be breathing a sigh of relief that the SFF do not seem to have their hearts totally on destroying the Nats west of the Great Divide in NSW.

    Bluey reckons the Labor wymyn are Labor’s big, big secret weapon. KK, Plibersek, Wong, Chloe and dozens of other Labor women, except for Parkes who is the black ewe of the flock. Gee, they are that good! Class! Smart! Personable!

    By way of comparison, the Coalition has de nada. Bluey reckons that as far as women are concerned, the Coalition has managed to self-triangulate! Dopey as.

    Bluey reckons the Coalition took Cash out of witness protection for a trial screech about how Shorten was going to force 50% of all apprentices to buy electric cars. Smirko was standing by her side for this little demo of the erstwhile Scourge of the Firies Unions. And she has not been seen since.

    So, to be fair to the Greens as well as to the Coalition, and taking into advisement the blandishments of the Bludger Neggers, Bluey scores today as yet another clear win for Labor.

    Progress Score: Labor 3; Coalition 0 and Greens.)

  4. I was at boarding school with Ackerman, he was a couple of years ahead of me.
    I’ll have nightmares tonight.
    Please don’t post pictures of Jabba.

  5. mundo says:
    Saturday, April 13, 2019 at 6:49 pm

    I was at boarding school with Ackerman, he was a couple of years ahead of me.
    I’ll have nightmares tonight.
    Please don’t post pictures of Jabba.
    ___________________

    I take it he wasn’t gentle with you.

  6. Another confirmation of the backwardness of Abbott supporters.

    C@tmomma @ #553 Saturday, April 13th, 2019 – 6:44 pm

    You would have liked the atmosphere at my local booth in the NSW election. When I walked in to vote the volunteers from the Greens, Labor and Nats were all standing around together having what seemed to be a friendly chat and taking turns to tend to the all important democracy sausages. It was a rather strange sight actually and a nice remember that we can be respectful even when we strongly disagree.

    Exactly what happens at our booth, except substitute Liberals for Nats. We started the State election day with a coffee bought for us by a guy who used to be Doug Anthony’s Electorate Officer and campaign manager, who was handing out for the Libs that day.

    The Greens think they discovered sex too!

  7. lizzie
    Something does not quite gel about the story about the Yarra Pygmy Perch being extinct in the MDB. From memory, the were on the coastal side of the Dividing Range in Victoria. IMO the location at the Murray Mouth is quite possibly a translocation. Anyhoo, reports that they were extinct in the MDB seemed to me to be a bit weird.
    Anyhoo, when I was a kid this species was one of my favourites. I used to go out into the drains and catch them by hand. They are beautiful.

    http://www.environment.gov.au/cgi-bin/sprat/public/publicspecies.pl?taxon_id=26177

  8. So Scott believes in everything & nothing at the same time

    Pentecostalism cannot fully explain any particular policy position, but Morrison’s highly distinctive religion explains the self-righteous conviction that he sustains through every shift in loyalty, every reform in policy and every promotional gesture. His irrepressible bounce is grounded in his faith that the cosmic cause is always larger than the earthly battle.
    https://www.themonthly.com.au/issue/2019/february/1548939600/james-boyce/devil-and-scott-morrison

  9. Bluey may receive some solace from the fact that at least I don’t bash the bejesus out of his brethren, as the Greeks do.

    I just freeze their balls off for a week..

  10. In colour you can see that voting members of the public easily outnumbered the Labor members in their red shirts at Shorten’s town hall meeting. I reckon there’s a lot more than 100 people there too, so Bluey’s accounting is somewhat skew-iff.

  11. GG:

    They’re flogging a dead horse. Most voters are simply puzzled at the zeal with which the govt and its media shills have attacked EVs.

  12. Morrison would be absolutely mental to debate Shorten in a town hall format. It’s Shorten’s best format by far, and would really demonstrate the difference between how calm the ALP leader is compared to Morrison, who blusters constantly and says anyone who disagrees with him is lying.

    It’d be a bloodbath.

  13. Confessions @ #577 Saturday, April 13th, 2019 – 7:16 pm

    GG:

    They’re flogging a dead horse. Most voters are simply puzzled at the zeal with which the govt and its media shills have attacked EVs.

    1. The Libs have no money.
    2. Their campaign is completely focussed on Morrison.
    3 What could possibly go wrong over the next five weeks? (Hint: See what has happened in the last two days)
    4. In the next week or so, it will be everyone for themselves on the Liberal side.

    It’s going to be ugly for the Libs on May 18 and they know it!

  14. Seems Roger Stone is suffering relevance deprivation syndrome.

    Roger Stone’s defense fired a volley of legal attacks at special counsel Robert S. Mueller III’s Russia investigation Friday, asking a federal judge to dismiss Stone’s indictment for lying to Congress and obstructing justice and to order that Stone receive a full unredacted copy of Mueller’s recently completed report.

    “No other person, Committee, or entity has Stone’s constitutionally based standing to demand the complete, unredacted Report,” Stone’s attorneys argued on behalf of the longtime confidant of President Trump. Only then “can he determine whether the Report contains material which could be critical to his defense,” or if he was selectively prosecuted, they wrote in a series of motions.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/legal-issues/roger-stone-asks-judge-to-dismiss-indictment-and-to-order-he-get-copy-of-full-mueller-report/2019/04/13/caea8a9c-5cc7-11e9-9625-01d48d50ef75_story.html?utm_term=.45e2165fad90

  15. GG:

    Plus we’ve already seen how poor a campaigner Morrison is in the by-elections last year. Gaffe prone is a serious understatement.

  16. Bluey, the West newspaper gave Shorten a point for yesterday for shoving the budget shonk back in Morrison’s lap. That made it 1-1 with them………As the West does not come out until Monday again there are two points in play…………..I can’t think how Morrison could be awarded a point today as belatedly the West will have to admit the Dutton was a completely obnoxious and Morrison had to bail him out. Nominally, 2-1 to Shorten? Then, there is Sunday and who knows what that will bring? So, could be 2-2 or 3-1 to Shorten. Boy, this metric is as good as the bean counting in the coffee shops or looking at which colour the octopus opts for…………..

  17. The PM usually dictates the format of any debates, so I expect Morrison and his minders will propose something contrived to make their candidate shine.

    Also I’ll be a Burwood tomorrow, look for a red T-shirt.

  18. Fox League just told viewers to watch out for “ScoMo” at the Sharks vs Roosters NRL match that’s about to kick off in Cronulla. Not sure if he’s actually there or not but get ready for some pie eating and beer swilling on the campaign trail. So predictable.

    (Yes, I’m a fanatical rugby league fan. Doesnt fit the stereotype of a Greens’ supporter, hey!)

  19. EB

    TPOF posted a single fullstop. Nothing else. I was having a bit for fun. TPOF understood. I’m sorry you felt the need to police a bit of fun.

  20. Firefox @ #589 Saturday, April 13th, 2019 – 7:38 pm

    Fox League just told viewers to watch out for “ScoMo” at the Sharks vs Roosters NRL match that’s about to kick off in Cronulla. Not sure if he’s actually there or not but get ready for some pie eating and beer swilling on the campaign trail. So predictable.

    (Yes, I’m a fanatical rugby league fan. Doesnt fit the stereotype of a Greens’ supporter, hey!)

    Not at all. Sticking your head up other men’s bums is a very Greens thing to do!

  21. Another day, another dictator Trump finds to love on. I reckon he’s just in awe of Sissi’s ability to declare himself president for life, as the Chinese president did. Something Trump also remarked upon favourably.

    EGYPTIAN PRESIDENT Abdel Fatah al-Sissi is orchestrating constitutional changes that will make him a de facto dictator for life, while permanently enshrining military control over Egypt’s political system. He continues to hold tens of thousands of political prisoners, including at least a dozen U.S. citizens. He has reportedly agreed to spend $2 billion to buy 20 advanced Russian fighter jets, though Egypt receives $1.3 billion in annual U.S. military aid, and a purchase from Russia could incur sanctions.

    So how did President Trump assess Mr. Sissi when he arrived at the White House for a visit Tuesday? “I think he’s doing a great job,” said Mr. Trump. “I think we’ve never had a better relationship — Egypt and the United States — than we do right now.”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/trump-embraces-another-dictator-congress-has-to-do-better/2019/04/12/e94e9b1c-5bb0-11e9-842d-7d3ed7eb3957_story.html?utm_term=.ef047897292b

  22. “I reckon there’s a lot more than 100 people there too, so Bluey’s accounting is somewhat skew-iff.”

    I’d estimate 200-250.

  23. “Not at all. Sticking your head up other men’s bums is a very Greens thing to do!”

    Well, making homophobic comments is a favourite pastime of immature right wing trolls, so I can’t say I’m surprised. Yawn.

  24. Odd isn’t it that, with so many Liberal supporters so confident of their impending victory, that a former PM in what should be a safe seat is pounding the streets to save himself.

    Remember that dumping Turnbull was orchestrated by Abbott to get the party swinging back to the right. He’d have had delusions he’d be off around the country rallying the right-wing troops and there he is knocking on doors like a first-time candidate.

  25. Morrison acting like a prat at the races.

    Shorten does a packed town hall and hundreds, if not thousands, of unionists and labor volunteers are out doorknocking across the country to “ change the rules “ and promote labor policy.

    Meanwhile the MSM misses the whole dynamic while new political history and the “ 21st century campaign manual “ is being unfolded by labor.

    Par for the course.

    When will the first campaign big policy announcement by labor happen ?

    “ Folks, this how labor intends to spend the lolly the coalition keeps harping on about. “

    Cheers and a good night to all.

  26. True Firefox, and not one of the right wing Labor nut jobs on this forum will call it out. The standard you walk past is the standard you accept. They are on a unity ticket with Tony Abbott. Same same

  27. Firefox @ #595 Saturday, April 13th, 2019 – 7:50 pm

    “Not at all. Sticking your head up other men’s bums is a very Greens thing to do!”

    Well, making homophobic comments is a favourite pastime of immature right wing trolls, so I can’t say I’m surprised. Yawn.

    The overwhelming genetic disposition of Greens supporters is they have no sense of cucumber.

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