The window for a May 11 election has passed, which would seem to narrow it down to May 18 or May 25, with the former seeming more likely given concerns expressed in the past about the latter. Some details on where things may or may not stand:
• Roy Morgan has published its weekly face-to-face poll result, normally available only to subscribers, but occasionally sent out in the wild when its proprietor has a point to make. This time, it’s that the government’s position has improved post-budget, with the Labor lead not at 52.5-47.5, from 55-45 last week (it may be observed that the organisation wasn’t duly excited by any of the results that got Labor to that position in the first place). On the primary vote, the Coalition was up 2.5% to 37%, Labor down 1.5% to 35%, the Greens up 1% to 13.5% (Morgan sharing Ipsos’s apparent skew to the Greens) and One Nation up half a point to 4%. The poll was conducted on the weekend from a face-to-face sample of 829 respondents.
• Michael Koziol of the Sydney Morning Herald reported on the weekend of Liberal polling that was “diabolically bad” for Tony Abbott in Warringah. Abbott’s primary vote is said to be down 12% on his 51.6% in 2016, which would indeed leave him a fair way short of competitive. Nonetheless, Liberal sources quoted by Koziol were optimistic Abbott would hang on, in part because of “a $1 million war chest from fundraising and his Advance Australia lobby group allies”. Whether that confidence remains intact now they have had a look at how Advance Australia plans on spending that money is not yet known.
• Other than that, the Liberals appear upbeat about their prospects in New South Wales. The Sydney Morning Herald reports optimism Kerryn Phelps’s win in Wentworth will prove to have been a one-off, now that voters there have vented their spleen about the removal of Malcolm Turnbull. Furthermore, the Sydney Morning Herald report says the Liberals believe they are in front in Lindsay – a claim that is both corroborated by Labor sources, and fleshed out in a report yesterday by Andrew Clennell of The Australian, which says the party’s polling credits them with a lead of 53-47. Clennell’s Liberal sources were particularly bullish, claiming leads in Dobell – on which Koziol’s source was more circumspect – and also to have the lead in their existing seats of Reid, Gilmore and Robertson. A Nationals source cited in Clennell’s report believes the party to be “marginally ahead” in their Mid North Coast seat of Page.
• Nonetheless, Labor is reportedly hopeful of maintaining the status quo in New South Wales, considering that Gilmore or Reid might balance a loss in Lindsay (apparently not rating a mention is Banks, which I for one would have thought vulnerable). Beyond New South Wales, Labor “believes it will win at least nine – and probably more – elsewhere”. Ben Packham of The Australian reported on the week end that Labor feels too secure in Victoria to devote resources to any of its own seats, and will target five held by the Coalition with “full field” campaigns: Dunkley, Corangamite, La Trobe, Chisholm and Deakin.
• The Australian reports Nick Xenophon’s Centre Alliance will only field candidates in Mayo, which is held for the party by Rebekha Sharkie, along with Grey and Barker, where they have respectively endorsed Andrea Broadfoot and Kelly Gladigau. The party’s predecessor, the Nick Xenophon Team, polled 21.3% across South Australia in 2016, and finished second in Grey, Barker and Port Adelaide (the latter now abolished).
• Jamie Walker of The Australian notes that Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party, which has endorsed candidates in more seats than any party other than Labor, has nonetheless left open its Queensland Senate ticket and the Townsville-based seat of Herbert. Palmer earlier maintained he would run in Herbert, but few now expect that to happen, given the certainty he would fail there.
• There’s a redistribution in train in the Northern Territory, which Ben Raue at The Tally Room is on top of if you’re interested.
Have the police found Melissa Price yet? Is she unharmed?
“I bet every dollar Ive got that Shortens rape story will be dug out by Murdoch scum for another run soon.”
Absolutley. They will want to attach that to the #metoo stuff.
Will be a lot of stuff from old Kill Bill campaigns they will bring out again as its cheap, will reinforce impressions of Shorten with their base, and creates the sound, color and movement they need to distract from lack of policy and nasty, incompetent policy offerings.
phoenixRED @ #300 Wednesday, April 10th, 2019 – 1:57 pm
Yes. Now and forever.
I wonder of Labor has a dirt unit that has been saving things up.
BK
Unfortunately the MSM are only keen on the Lib dirt unit against Labor .They are already clutching onto every non event like those wedding photos of Shorten. It is true gutter lazy so called journalism.
C@tmomma
Wednesday, April 10th, 2019 – 2:01 pm
Comment #308
🐈😻
#cringe
Big A –
There are a couple of different levels at which control of parliament operates. The GG really has the ultimate say, and depending on how reasonable the PM of the day is they would be able to direct the GG.
However, short of involving the GG’s powers, the executive doesn’t get to control when the House or Senate sit – a majority of the House or the Senate can (again, apart from control exerted by the GG) set their own sitting schedules, and so a minority government cannot necessarily control this short of the nuclear option of asking the GG to intervene, which (short of a good reason from the PM) you would hope the GG would refuse to do. (Noting that Turnbull also played silly buggers around his DD election by getting the GG to prorogue and then bring back the Senate on the pretext of needing to debate the ABCC bills – at least that was cloaked in terms of legislative necessity, so the GG wouldn’t have had grounds to object, and in that case it wasn’t about stopping the Senate from sitting – intervening to stop one of the chambers sitting when the members of that chamber clearly wish to sit is quite problematic to my mind).
It is a bad look regardless – KK copped a lot of flak (and rightly so) for proroguing the NSW parliament 3 months early, apparently to avoid some bad publicity, although given what a mess the NSW ALP were in it’s probably impossible to know exactly how much that might have contributed to their subsequent walloping at the election.
“So for 6 yrs, while fraudband has been ‘rolling out’, all Labor has come up with to fix it is a whole lot of nothing.”
One should never reinforce failure. Regrettably Rex, after a Battle is lost there is little to do other than count the dead and bayonet the wounded.
Never fear though. The MMT NBN only has a shelf life of 10 years, so Labor will have that decade to regroup and roll out NBN 3.0 incrementally over the life of what one hopes will be a very long term Labor Government.
I really do cringe at some of Rex’s posts!
imacca @ #352 Wednesday, April 10th, 2019 – 2:41 pm
Chris Bowen made a very valid point about PPM at today’s NPC address. He said that the evidence was that every Opposition Leader who had inferior PPM ratings saw them go up to lead the new Opposition Leader on every single occasion they went from Opposition Leader to PM.
imacca @ #348 Wednesday, April 10th, 2019 – 2:37 pm
Sounds like nath supplied it to them from his Bill Shorten Dirt File. 😆
The government boards of Australia are groaning with Liberal appointees
But former Liberal MP Ewen Jones, who missed out on pre-selection for Herbert, has just been appointed to a government board.
From Mitch Fifield’s statement:
The Australian Government has appointed Mr Ewen Jones as a member of the Board of the National Film and Sound Archive (NFSA) for a period of three years.
Mr Jones has extensive business and government relations experience. He has a background in finance and real estate sales and is an auctioneer by trade.
He was the Member for Herbert from 2010 to 2016 and served on several House of Representatives Standing Committees and the Joint Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade.
The Board is responsible for the overall performance of the organisation, including setting the strategic direction and goals for management.
The NFSA collects, preserves and displays Australia’s film, video, television, stills and recorded sound.
For more information about the NFSA visit http://www.nfsa.gov.au
C@tmomma
says:
Sounds like nath supplied it to them from his Bill Shorten Dirt File.
____________________________________________
I’ve actually never even mentioned the rape allegation. So you are talking shit.
Rex and Nath will never change.Too much emphasis on personalities/looks etc.A party is bigger than one person,but there is 1000s of Rex/Naths out in voterland who put too much onus on just leader traits just the same.
test
GetUp poll says Frydenberg “level” with Labor in Kooyong
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/apr/10/kooyong-climate-change-federl-election-melbourne-liberal-heartland
They had Labor on 20, Greens on 17, Yates on 10.
The problem with this sort of poll especially in a four-way contest is that they likely asked (after primary vote) a series of “one on one” contests v Frydenberg. So even if Frydenberg’s ‘worst’ result on these was 50-50 v Labor, such a contest may never come about if for example Yates’ preferences put the Greens ahead of Labor.
Good finally though for the media to pay some attention to Labor candidate Jana Stewart. I met her a few weeks ago and I think she would make an excellent MP. The Liberals are clearly worried – that day they had lots of Blue Shirts manning two stalls up and down the street on the same block as Labor’s stall.
I realized a long time ago, pick your battles. Political parties would know it too.
nath @ #364 Wednesday, April 10th, 2019 – 3:09 pm
Get your own s*it together, nath. I was talking about the wedding photos of Huang’s daughter’s wedding. Sheesh!
“Rex and Nath will never change.Too much emphasis on personalities/looks etc.A party is bigger than one person,but there is 1000s of Rex/Naths out in voterland who put too much onus on just leader traits just the same.”
Where have you been since 2010 while both Labor and then the Coalition have both been utterly consumed by who leads their parties? Labor knifed Rudd because they couldn’t stand him on a personal level, then they knifed Gillard to save the furniture because they came to the conclusion that Rudd was a better communicator (leadership trait). Then the Coalition did pretty much the same thing with Abbott and Turnbull. It is the major parties themselves who are the ones obsessed with the personalities and traits of their leaders and who run presidential style campaigns.
Trouble’s brewing for the climate change troglodytes in the Coalition.
https://www.sbs.com.au/news/former-fire-chiefs-demand-urgent-action-on-escalating-climate-change-threat
Lizzie: “I was wondering what ‘dirt’ Albrechtsen was throwing at Chloe Shorten, and now I know. She’s ‘bossy’.”
As commented later, Ms Albrechtsen attempted to use Ms Shorten as a throwaway prop to throw mud at Mr Shorten and Ms Macmanus, also suggesting something unseemly. Both the attempt to use an (uninvolved) person as a throwaway prop and the unseemly implication combine to make this one of the most disgusting articles the Australian has yet published.
And then it struck me: who else was it that attempted to use Ms Shorten as a prop to the same end? Something about pimping?
FF
I was talking about voters not internal party politics.
FFS – Labor has had its leader longer than the Greens.
Let’s give up the moral superiority bullshit, the Greens are a political party like any other, the factional nonsense about the leadership style and priorities of Di Natale is rife.
No one is pure or perfect or innocent in politics. Labor will need the Greens and the Greens capitalise on the influence they gain.
Let’s the get the fuck on with beating the Tories. I can’t wait for this election to be called so this self-congratulatory but equally self-defeating bullshit can stop… for a while.
Christian Porter releases ALRC report into Family Law.
Pretty sure not one recommendation is mentioned in the release so a dust gatherer it will be under LNP.
Link does not work so can’t say what ALRC’s view is on the merging of Family Court and Federal Magistrates is.
https://inbrief.nswbar.asn.au/posts/cdb25a7c087884e2216dfe1426016544/attachment/AG_Aust_Law_reform_MR.pdf
Re BK’s post @ 3.27 pm:
Interview on RN this morning with Greg Mullen ex Fires boss from NSW. Didn’t hold back.
https://abcmedia.akamaized.net/rn/podcast/2019/04/bst_20190410_0752.mp3
More wages underpaid –
https://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace/beaurepaires-owes-1-8-million-to-underpaid-staff-after-payroll-glitch-20190410-p51cr8.html
Rocket Rocket @ #367 Wednesday, April 10th, 2019 – 3:18 pm
Those 3 non-Josh votes add up to 47%. So how do you get labor at 50/50. yates voters would surely preference the Libs. Need more info!
Due only to unintentional “errors”, of course.
Greensborough Growler @ #377 Wednesday, April 10th, 2019 – 3:37 pm
Yeah, the article should have quoted a primary number for Frydenberg. It would have to be abyssmal to have a 50/50 2PP result with Labor and Greens only on 37% combined.
Rumours of Scotty taking the drive down Dunrossil tomorrow?
A portend here with Fifield shovelling Liberal hack appointees to boards like there’s no tomorrow..
“And this statement from earlier includes former senator and Liberal party president Richard Alston. From Mitch Fifield:
“The Australian Government has appointed Mr Michael Gannon, Ms Terri Janke, the Hon Richard Alston AO, and Professor Sally Smart as members of the Council of the National Gallery of Australia for three year terms.
Mr Gannon is a Chartered Accountant and the Executive Chair of the Cremorne Group. He will bring substantial business and philanthropic experience to the Council.
Ms Janke is a lawyer and managing director of Terri Janke and Company Lawyers and Consulting. She has worked extensively in the arts sector and is recognised as an international authority on Indigenous Cultural and Intellectual Property. She has written the leading protocols and ICIP models in the film, arts, museum and archival sectors. Her Indigenous heritage is Torres Strait Islander (Meriam) and Aboriginal (Wuthathi).
Mr Alston is a company director and Adjunct Professor of Information Technology at Bond University. He has extensive experience in government, international diplomacy and business. He formerly served as Australia’s High Commissioner to the United Kingdom and as Federal Minister for the Arts.
Trying to find a tweet.
Kristina K.
Fwaturing a video of a press conference she did using props talking about electric cars and the hypocrisy of the government.
Anyone have a link?
CC
What your looking for is at the back end of this presser a couple of days ago.
https://www.pscp.tv/w/1DXxyNmAdRVKM
Cud Chewer @ #381 Wednesday, April 10th, 2019 – 3:44 pm
Here as well:
https://junkee.com/kristina-keneally-electric-cars/200839
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XPVUoBfHPGg
BK
They have one operating at the moment it’s called the Turnbultronic Autonomous Avenger, model no.24080218.
GG
There are always ‘don’t know / won’t say’ – they are just taken out of the calculations by the likes of Newspoll – so notably here they did not report Frydenberg’s primary. Presumably they ended up with a ‘level’ result on separate Liberal v Labor question so even if it was say 44-44 it is effectively 50-50 of those who answered the question. Of course the non-responders increase the uncertainty of such sampling results, more so the more there are. Which is like the “likely voter” problem in US polls.
Personally I think Frydenberg will win about 52-48 against either Labor’s Jana Stewart or the Greens’ Julian Burnside.
“FFS – Labor has had its leader longer than the Greens.”
A federal Greens leader has never been knifed and removed from the leadership. Both Brown and Milne retired after very long careers in politics. Brown endorsed Milne as his successor, just as Milne endorsed Di Natale as her successor. You’ll be struggling to find another politician who lead their party for as long as Bob Brown did (1992-2012). The only one I can think of off the top of my head is Menzies.
“Let’s give up the moral superiority bullshit, the Greens are a political party like any other, the factional nonsense about the leadership style and priorities of Di Natale is rife.”
We’ll give up being morally superior when the other parties actually develop some morals. Oh and you shouldn’t believe everything you read in the Murdoch media, especially when it relates ro the Greens.
“No one is pure or perfect or innocent in politics. Labor will need the Greens and the Greens capitalise on the influence they gain.”
Fair comment.
“Let’s the get the fuck on with beating the Tories. I can’t wait for this election to be called so this self-congratulatory but equally self-defeating bullshit can stop… for a while.”
Make no mistake, getting rid of the Coalition is the number one priority this election, but that doesn’t mean Labor gets a free pass either.
Payroll software glitches never seem to overpay anyone.
poroti says:
Wednesday, April 10, 2019 at 3:51 pm
BK
BK says:
Wednesday, April 10, 2019 at 2:47 pm
I wonder of Labor has a dirt unit that has been saving things up.
They have one operating at the moment it’s called the Turnbultronic Autonomous Avenger, model no.24080218.
——————-
Throw in Abbott’s dirt on turnbull , and turnbull’s dirt on Abbott
Gareth @ #388 Wednesday, April 10th, 2019 – 3:58 pm
Except if they are executives.
At least Labor got rid of a poor federal leader.
Rocket Rocket @ #386 Wednesday, April 10th, 2019 – 3:56 pm
I follow your reasoning. But, how hard is it to put in Josh’s Primary. Makes one suspicious that it’s a crock!
I dont read the Murdoch rags. I speak to Greens members.
But that’s not the point and AGAIN, I HATE that I voluntarily entered the cesspit of pointlessness that is the PB GRN v ALP wars.
KK was very amusing and she’s a star in front of the camera. Although I find it a little hard to be objective about her as she gets my pulse racing and stirs something deep inside me.
“At least Labor got rid of a poor federal leader.”
That’s highly debatable lol. Besides, most of the Labor rank and file wanted Albo, not Shorten.
I have a question for any maths/encryption boffins.
https://www.sciencealert.com/mathematicians-just-discovered-an-astonishing-new-way-to-multiply-numbers-together
My question is how might this relate to encryption? Might it make decryption a whole lot easier? It might be a case of ‘watch this space’.
nath
I understand where you are coming from with KK.
“I dont read the Murdoch rags. I speak to Greens members.”
You are speaking to a member of the NSW Greens right now and I’m telling you you’re wrong. 🙂
“But that’s not the point and AGAIN, I HATE that I voluntarily entered the cesspit of pointlessness that is the PB GRN v ALP wars.”
Hey, at least we’re able to have a civil debate on here even when we disagree. I’d rather debate Labor supporters than far right nut jobs. At least you can get some sense out of a Labor supporter. Debating RWNJs on places Facebook and Twitter is about as worthwhile as banging your head against a brick wall.
Player One
I don’t understand your tweet. The tweet I posted on farmers using EV’s didn’t say anything about charging in 8 minutes.
However as a separate matter, Laurie Oakes significantly tweeted this article:
https://www.renewableenergyworld.com/articles/2018/04/abb-launches-8-minute-charger-for-electric-vehicles.html
Andrew Earlwood
On your NBN post at 2:59 pm.
If no one has mentioned it. Upgrade path for those on FTTN. FTTC then later FTTP.
Unless FTTC and FTTP tech is totally incompatible at the street level.