The window for a May 11 election has passed, which would seem to narrow it down to May 18 or May 25, with the former seeming more likely given concerns expressed in the past about the latter. Some details on where things may or may not stand:
• Roy Morgan has published its weekly face-to-face poll result, normally available only to subscribers, but occasionally sent out in the wild when its proprietor has a point to make. This time, it’s that the government’s position has improved post-budget, with the Labor lead not at 52.5-47.5, from 55-45 last week (it may be observed that the organisation wasn’t duly excited by any of the results that got Labor to that position in the first place). On the primary vote, the Coalition was up 2.5% to 37%, Labor down 1.5% to 35%, the Greens up 1% to 13.5% (Morgan sharing Ipsos’s apparent skew to the Greens) and One Nation up half a point to 4%. The poll was conducted on the weekend from a face-to-face sample of 829 respondents.
• Michael Koziol of the Sydney Morning Herald reported on the weekend of Liberal polling that was “diabolically bad” for Tony Abbott in Warringah. Abbott’s primary vote is said to be down 12% on his 51.6% in 2016, which would indeed leave him a fair way short of competitive. Nonetheless, Liberal sources quoted by Koziol were optimistic Abbott would hang on, in part because of “a $1 million war chest from fundraising and his Advance Australia lobby group allies”. Whether that confidence remains intact now they have had a look at how Advance Australia plans on spending that money is not yet known.
• Other than that, the Liberals appear upbeat about their prospects in New South Wales. The Sydney Morning Herald reports optimism Kerryn Phelps’s win in Wentworth will prove to have been a one-off, now that voters there have vented their spleen about the removal of Malcolm Turnbull. Furthermore, the Sydney Morning Herald report says the Liberals believe they are in front in Lindsay – a claim that is both corroborated by Labor sources, and fleshed out in a report yesterday by Andrew Clennell of The Australian, which says the party’s polling credits them with a lead of 53-47. Clennell’s Liberal sources were particularly bullish, claiming leads in Dobell – on which Koziol’s source was more circumspect – and also to have the lead in their existing seats of Reid, Gilmore and Robertson. A Nationals source cited in Clennell’s report believes the party to be “marginally ahead” in their Mid North Coast seat of Page.
• Nonetheless, Labor is reportedly hopeful of maintaining the status quo in New South Wales, considering that Gilmore or Reid might balance a loss in Lindsay (apparently not rating a mention is Banks, which I for one would have thought vulnerable). Beyond New South Wales, Labor “believes it will win at least nine – and probably more – elsewhere”. Ben Packham of The Australian reported on the week end that Labor feels too secure in Victoria to devote resources to any of its own seats, and will target five held by the Coalition with “full field” campaigns: Dunkley, Corangamite, La Trobe, Chisholm and Deakin.
• The Australian reports Nick Xenophon’s Centre Alliance will only field candidates in Mayo, which is held for the party by Rebekha Sharkie, along with Grey and Barker, where they have respectively endorsed Andrea Broadfoot and Kelly Gladigau. The party’s predecessor, the Nick Xenophon Team, polled 21.3% across South Australia in 2016, and finished second in Grey, Barker and Port Adelaide (the latter now abolished).
• Jamie Walker of The Australian notes that Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party, which has endorsed candidates in more seats than any party other than Labor, has nonetheless left open its Queensland Senate ticket and the Townsville-based seat of Herbert. Palmer earlier maintained he would run in Herbert, but few now expect that to happen, given the certainty he would fail there.
• There’s a redistribution in train in the Northern Territory, which Ben Raue at The Tally Room is on top of if you’re interested.
Could you please stop amping up the rhetoric? Havent you got ohms to go to!!
GG has always been a grounded poster.
sd
We need a circuit breaker.
How did the baker die? A current ran up his leg.
“All thanks to Labor internal treachery and treason that tore down the Gillard-Milne-Indy progressive Govt and delivered Abbott.”
True. Labor’s civil war handed power to Abbott on a silver platter. He’s probably the luckiest opposition leader in Australian history. So undeserving of victory.
Apparently the ‘revelation’ that Porter is trying tp peddle was reported two years ago in the dead tree media
caf @ #272 Wednesday, April 10th, 2019 – 1:09 pm
And resisting arrest.
Thank you for the clarification, KayJay. All good at this end now. 🙂
Charles @ #128 Wednesday, April 10th, 2019 – 9:53 am
Farmers and tradies, and indeed everybody else, have been increasingly buying electric versions of their tools and toys for decades. There is now a whole generation of them who have never known of a time without battery drills, et al.
Virtually all tradies will have a set of battery powered tools, and couldn’t do their job without them. And those batteries could be directly charged from electric utes, on site, without mains power or a generator.
If Labor can tie all this together with a smart power grid, distributed renewable power & storage, climate change solutions, new industries and employment (especially in high tech manufacturing), etc, they are onto a big winner that ticks many boxes of both substance and electoral concern.
Should also be room in that picture for a full fibre NBN.
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I agree with Doyley, and others.
Signs are that Labor have mapped both the policy and politics of this critical issue well in advance, and are currently sitting quietly back for a bit while the cons and their propaganda machine tie themselves into hysterical obnoxious pretzel knots. Then, as the timing suits, Labor can release more of both the details and the bigger picture, and show how it all stitches together.
Also not convinced the NSW election result has any implications for the federal one. The NSW cons only just held on, in considerably more favourable circumstances then those facing the federal cons.
At most, it wasn’t an obvious negative for the federal mob. But not much comfort in that for them. Still on track for a clear loss, and if Shorten Labor are as competent in government as they have been in opposition, then the cons will be in the wilderness for some time.
BW
Its not your volt that everyone is suddenly arcing up.
Another major industrial accident.
steve davis says: Wednesday, April 10, 2019 at 2:02 pm
BW
Its not your volt that everyone is suddenly arcing up.
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My TV is buzzing with the static on here …..
Is Bill now caught up in the Huang billionaire controversy?
Reports that he attended the Huang daughters wedding. If true, be interesting to discover the relationship between the two. When did it start and was the daughters wedding before or after the ASIO warning.
Also reports that Andrew Robb attended the same wedding. Why?
sd
Every time Morrison tries for to reset his circuits he gets Shortened out.
Seems like after today, we’ll all be “Together in Electric Dreams”.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-10/political-polling-company-ucomms-ties-to-unions-cfmmeu-and-actu/10945798
jenauthor @ #305 Wednesday, April 10th, 2019 – 2:00 pm
What is also important to remember wrt the 2 occasions in question:
1. Dutton’s meeting with Huang was conducted in a Private Dining Room of the Chinese restaurant in question with only one other person present to listen to the conversation between the 2 men. The government can deny what was discussed on that occasion all they like but who really knows? All we know is the close proximity to Huang’s attempt to be granted Australian Citizenship and that Peter Dutton was the Minister responsible for the ultimate decision.
2. Bill Shorten, as did Julie Bishop and Barnaby Joyce before him wrt prominent Indian citizen’s daughter’s weddings, went along as an invited guest to a public event. It is to be absolutely open to valid speculation whether ANYTHING of substance was discussed at that event between the two men, Huang and Shorten.
Hopefully, this is the black swan event Victoria was alluding to earlier this week wrt Bill Shorten which was to be unleashed by the government. If so, it is a nothingburger.
phoenixRed
Conduct yourself in the proper manner otherwise your crown joules will be in danger.
Greensborough Growler says: Wednesday, April 10, 2019 at 2:07 pm
Seems like after today, we’ll all be “Together in Electric Dreams”.
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You are really switched on today GG ….
Today’s The West is a laugh – front page headline “E-car plan is silly: Hughes” (they call him Wa’s most trusted car dealer). Inside a big spread headlined ‘CALAMITOUS’ with him saying “we would have to turn upside down the whole way we do business”.
Will the scare campaign work? I really don’t think so. Listening to the radio most people like the idea of ev’s and the additional publicity appears to be working in Labor’s favour.
The worries me though. Liberal Dean Smith says renters are being targeted by their door-knockers and they are “warning them their rents will go up under a Labor government.”
“Senator Smith said he believed fear of rising rents would be a deciding issue for voters in marginal seats”.
Looking forward to the media calling them on their scare campaign………. smiley face
This could go on Faraday or two.
Phoenix
I nearly got my joules cut off last night due to improper conduct.
steve davis says: Wednesday, April 10, 2019 at 2:08 pm
phoenixRed
Conduct yourself in the proper manner otherwise your crown joules will be in danger.
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Don’t threaten me Steve or I’ll come and rip your bloody amperes off !!!!!
I’m shocked! Shocked, I tells ya! Your comments have short-circuited debate! 😆
But don’t worry, Maxwell sort it all out.
C@tmomma @ #323 Wednesday, April 10th, 2019 – 2:12 pm
No doubt there’ll be volte farcing later on!
It’s anybody’s Gauss who will win the election.
No doubt there’ll be volte farcing later on!
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Joule be sorry!
BK says: Wednesday, April 10, 2019 at 2:14 pm
It’s anybody’s Gauss who will win the election.
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You are such an alternator BK ….. yesterday you said it was Bill Shorten who would win
We might end up inducting Henry.
I bought my ex a chair for Christmas, but she wouldnt plug it in!!
“Farmers and tradies, and indeed everybody else, have been increasingly buying electric versions of their tools and toys for decades. There is now a whole generation of them who have never known of a time without battery drills, et al. ”
Company that runs a stable of tradies, in company vans, for say plumbing?
Most or all of their work local so EV range of 250 -300km in a day all good.
Tools mainly battery powered, maybe even the roto-rooter?? 🙂
And they get a $20000 instant write of for buying the EV van and or tools.
They could shift faster than people think.
I was a bit concerned that this campaing of from the Muppets may start to bite with the bogan tradie set, but, maybe they are actually a group more concious of the advantages of EV and batteries than most? They will have real life experience of how fast the battery tech has moved on via their tools.
Perhaps the Coalition could bring Godwin Grech out to add credibility to attacks on Labor’s EV policy. Or better yet, Saudi ruler Mohammed Bin Salman could explain why oil cannot be replaced?
The coalition’s response is so nonsensical I have to wonder what vested interest is at play? Which cabinet ministers have shares in an oil exploration venture?
steve davis says: Wednesday, April 10, 2019 at 2:17 pm
I bought my ex a chair for Christmas, but she wouldnt plug it in!!
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Watts the good of giving her a present if she won’t use it ??????
pedant: “That’s simply wrong. Section 5 of the Constitution says it in black and white:”
ok. I’m just remembering Antony Green, or maybe someone else, pointing out that if the parliament wanted to sit, they could and didn’t need the permission of the PM. I’m not sure if that’s precluded by an official proroguing or not.
The poles are pretty static at the moment too.
How would the LNP know who was renting and who owned their house? How many doorknock volunteers can they raise on a good day?
The Senator is having a lend…
Porter also seems to forget that, whatever Shorten did, he was in opposition. He was in no position whatsoever to do anything for Huang (except maybe make representations). Now, the Minister for Immigration is another matter.
steve davis says: Wednesday, April 10, 2019 at 2:21 pm
The poles are pretty static at the moment too.
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But still looking positive for the ALP !
Socrates,
There is nothing in depth about the government response to the EV announcement by labor.
It was a labor announcement. Pavlov’s Dog response arises from the government and they oppose it. Simple.
Labor was expecting the response. Let the government have some rope.
More to come from labor.
C@tmomma @ #316 Wednesday, April 10th, 2019 – 2:08 pm
Yes Lib-Lab same same when it comes to political donations. Would sell their grandmothers for a few bucks.
Socrates – It’s very easy to think this mob has a plan. After all, who would deliberately look so dopey and desperate. Alan Kohler fell right into that trap a few days ago (the budget was a long term plan to leave govt with dignity, or some such!). Nope, they’re the dregs of society that a bunch of wallies in LNP branches have inflicted on the nation. What you see is what you get!
Lets hope that Labor are in power soon too,so they can conduct themselves with a positive agenda in government,instead of the negative Libs who currently are hanging on by a thin wire.
The Huang stuff has a wiff of racism too it IMO, because we don’t get the same beat up when politicians cosy up with people likes of Gina Rhinehart or Rupert Murdoch.
It is all the same where large donors have questionable influence over our politicans.
Rupert Murdoch, who can’t even be considered Australian anymore, and so is a foreign influence, would be at the top of the list of doing alot to damage Australia over many decades.
steve davis says: Wednesday, April 10, 2019 at 2:26 pm
Lets hope that Labor are in power soon too,so they can conduct themselves with a positive agenda in government,instead of the negative Libs who currently are hanging on by a thin wire.
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Never fear Steve – Morrison is such an insulator that the public have already switched off from his smarmy smirk and shouts
Murdoch newspapers are complete hypocrites when they go on about foreign influences in Australia.He is the biggest culprit of them all.
I bet every dollar Ive got that Shortens rape story will be dug out by Murdoch scum for another run soon.
steve davis says:
Wednesday, April 10, 2019 at 2:34 pm
Murdoch newspapers are complete hypocrites when they go on about foreign influences in Australia.He is the biggest culprit of them all.
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He just wants the monopoly.
“Hopefully, this is the black swan event Victoria was alluding to earlier this week wrt Bill Shorten which was to be unleashed by the government. If so, it is a nothingburger.”
Hmmmm…black swans should learn not to fly in duck hunting season.
Issue seems to have actually be dealt with in 2017. Muppets reduced to recyclin old dirt on shorten thats already been washed off??
Rex
“”Would sell their grandmothers for a few bucks.””
I bet you would sell yours for an increase in your unemployment benefit, Rex
briefly @ #336 Wednesday, April 10th, 2019 – 2:22 pm
No they aren’t. I can say for a fact that in the recent NSW State election the Liberal Party targeted their letter box drops to specific demographics. I was staying in a house that had a little girl in Child Care and I picked up a flyer from their letterbox that only spoke to them about the government’s proposals in the Child Care space. I reckon they got the child’s enrolment information from the Department of Education and microtargeted their voter pitch.
I can think of another way they could have found out. Trawling facebook for voters’ pages, seeing they had a daughter and sending off a pamphlet to them. The Liberal Party are using the Koch Brothers i360 data mining and voter targeting outfit remember.