The window for a May 11 election has passed, which would seem to narrow it down to May 18 or May 25, with the former seeming more likely given concerns expressed in the past about the latter. Some details on where things may or may not stand:
• Roy Morgan has published its weekly face-to-face poll result, normally available only to subscribers, but occasionally sent out in the wild when its proprietor has a point to make. This time, it’s that the government’s position has improved post-budget, with the Labor lead not at 52.5-47.5, from 55-45 last week (it may be observed that the organisation wasn’t duly excited by any of the results that got Labor to that position in the first place). On the primary vote, the Coalition was up 2.5% to 37%, Labor down 1.5% to 35%, the Greens up 1% to 13.5% (Morgan sharing Ipsos’s apparent skew to the Greens) and One Nation up half a point to 4%. The poll was conducted on the weekend from a face-to-face sample of 829 respondents.
• Michael Koziol of the Sydney Morning Herald reported on the weekend of Liberal polling that was “diabolically bad” for Tony Abbott in Warringah. Abbott’s primary vote is said to be down 12% on his 51.6% in 2016, which would indeed leave him a fair way short of competitive. Nonetheless, Liberal sources quoted by Koziol were optimistic Abbott would hang on, in part because of “a $1 million war chest from fundraising and his Advance Australia lobby group allies”. Whether that confidence remains intact now they have had a look at how Advance Australia plans on spending that money is not yet known.
• Other than that, the Liberals appear upbeat about their prospects in New South Wales. The Sydney Morning Herald reports optimism Kerryn Phelps’s win in Wentworth will prove to have been a one-off, now that voters there have vented their spleen about the removal of Malcolm Turnbull. Furthermore, the Sydney Morning Herald report says the Liberals believe they are in front in Lindsay – a claim that is both corroborated by Labor sources, and fleshed out in a report yesterday by Andrew Clennell of The Australian, which says the party’s polling credits them with a lead of 53-47. Clennell’s Liberal sources were particularly bullish, claiming leads in Dobell – on which Koziol’s source was more circumspect – and also to have the lead in their existing seats of Reid, Gilmore and Robertson. A Nationals source cited in Clennell’s report believes the party to be “marginally ahead” in their Mid North Coast seat of Page.
• Nonetheless, Labor is reportedly hopeful of maintaining the status quo in New South Wales, considering that Gilmore or Reid might balance a loss in Lindsay (apparently not rating a mention is Banks, which I for one would have thought vulnerable). Beyond New South Wales, Labor “believes it will win at least nine – and probably more – elsewhere”. Ben Packham of The Australian reported on the week end that Labor feels too secure in Victoria to devote resources to any of its own seats, and will target five held by the Coalition with “full field” campaigns: Dunkley, Corangamite, La Trobe, Chisholm and Deakin.
• The Australian reports Nick Xenophon’s Centre Alliance will only field candidates in Mayo, which is held for the party by Rebekha Sharkie, along with Grey and Barker, where they have respectively endorsed Andrea Broadfoot and Kelly Gladigau. The party’s predecessor, the Nick Xenophon Team, polled 21.3% across South Australia in 2016, and finished second in Grey, Barker and Port Adelaide (the latter now abolished).
• Jamie Walker of The Australian notes that Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party, which has endorsed candidates in more seats than any party other than Labor, has nonetheless left open its Queensland Senate ticket and the Townsville-based seat of Herbert. Palmer earlier maintained he would run in Herbert, but few now expect that to happen, given the certainty he would fail there.
• There’s a redistribution in train in the Northern Territory, which Ben Raue at The Tally Room is on top of if you’re interested.
C@t’s real class pops up again …. “And if he wants cutting edge streaming porn to mess up the spa with,”
And as usual, her beloved and beloving colleagues remain silent as the blog is dragged down to muck level.
Jeebus bloody wept, these people vote 😡
psyclaw @ #101 Wednesday, April 10th, 2019 – 9:42 am
So what? It’s business as usual and probably more reflective of the general debate that goes on in the broader community.
adrian @ #95 Wednesday, April 10th, 2019 – 9:34 am
I think the real ‘problem’ is, and has been for some time, how they set the news agenda (for politics) for any day. If, for example, you listen to Fran Kelly on RN in the morning, sometimes you could be forgiven for thinking that she was reading straight off the front page of The Australian for the political news items of the day.
GG
Pull your head in.
As the EU discusses a possible Brexit extension, to the extent it is in its own interests, anyone having trouble making headway on how the Brexit shambles might play out should find the flow chart in this link helpful.
(Michael Roth is Germany’s Minister of State for Europe)
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/apr/09/conditions-for-short-brexit-delay-have-not-been-met-says-berlin
Pity this aint a real billboard.
:large
Darc @ #104 Wednesday, April 10th, 2019 – 9:45 am
I’d say she is. So what? It’s the only national newspaper we have. Reading from local papers you’d end up with lots of croc stories. Also, her contributors come from a wide variety of media organisations. So, everything gets pulled apart and discussed.
The Morrison-Media faux war on EVs is astute retail politics pare excellence:
1. It taps into some potent but untapped fear about Labor – Tax – Carbon – blah blah. This will bite big time in margin seats with a large bogan contingent. Anybody who thinks otherwise has forgotten the 2011-2013 fear and loathing campaign over carbon pricing (convincing a gullible public that it was a tax when it wasnt a tax. Ring any bells).
2. The budget was well received. Clearly (even though it was pure stunt – relying on three assumptions – continuing boom in iron ore exports, a return in the slumping thermal coal export market and GNP growth 0.5% above current levels). On the other hand, Shorten’s reply was equally well received, but the message on that hadn’t fully sunken in before the “8-10 minutes” EV Charging “GST Birthday Cake moment” broke and the MSM recycled this stor for 3 days straight: Who now in voter land even remembers the budget reply? Completely blown out of the water. That’s why Morrison had no problem in adopting positions that were totally inconsistent with his government’s own position on EVs: why he sent Taylor, Freudenboy and even Cash (FFS) to go into full on hysteria mode – it didn’t matter if they were roundly ridiculed- ‘everybody’ was talking about EVs and whether or not Shorten make a mistake & ‘nobody’ was talking about Labor’s positive plans.
We can expect to see a lot of this in the upcoming federal campaign, especially in the last 10 days of the campaign: the NSW election was a test run and the MSM proved their worth in sucking oxygen out of any message that labor may wish to sell: look at the concentration of the MSM – Costello Land, ‘Little’ Kerry world, the Rupeverse and ‘their’ ABC.
If it wasnt for the fact that the current mob have been a omnishambles for the last 6 years, Labor wouldn’t stand a chance. At the moment – scared as I am from the NSW Election – I reckon the outcome is far from a sure thing.
I notice that Guytaur has declared that the LNP have lost Queensland over Adani. Bullshit: the seat of Brisbane is to far gone and full of money to fall to either Labor or the Greens now. All the money in mining construction is actually located in South East Queensland – most of the construction workers work for companies based on the Gold Coast, or in the corridor between North Brisbane and the Sunshione Coast. I coul well see Labor only drawing in Queensland. Perhaps going backwards.
Whilst I have difficulty in seeing labor going backwaters in my home state – after all the 2PP position actually improved for labor between 2015 and the ‘disastrous’ 2019 election (plus compulsory preferential voting will undoubtably help Labor’s cause federally) I can see Labor losing Lindsay and failing to pick up Reid and Banks because of demographic changes. However I seriously doubt that the good folk of are going to cop a turncoat carpetbagger like Mundine and I have equally high hopes in Page. Robertson must be ‘in play’ as well. However …
Victoria looks bad for the LNP, no matter what way you look at it. However, they should regain Indi and if they can ‘hold on’ to their other seats then anything is possible.
It IS possible that Labor could lose its two most margin seats in Tasmania and that might actually counterbalance loses elsewhere.
Who knows. The Ad Man from Mad Men might be the actual political genius he always said he was. If an A Grade fraudster and criminal like Trump can con America then … sigh. I’m fracking moving to NZ!
psyclaw @ #105 Wednesday, April 10th, 2019 – 9:47 am
There you go being the boss of the wash again.
My head is quite happy where it is!
Darc @ 9:45
I think the real ‘problem’ is, and has been for some time, how they set the news agenda (for politics) for any day. If, for example, you listen to Fran Kelly on RN in the morning, sometimes you could be forgiven for thinking that she was reading straight off the front page of The Australian for the political news items of the day.
Nailed it.
Commercial Networks seem to get their news from the Daily Telegraph or its equivalent in other jurisdictions.
psyclaw @ #101 Wednesday, April 10th, 2019 – 9:42 am
I presume (perhaps too much) that most just scroll on by – or miss entirely such items courtesy of AR’s C+.
As for me – I remain hopeful of kinder, gentler, informative posts and courteous, humorous (maybe) exchanges.
Be good to yourself my friend. 😍☮☕
What Andrew_Earlwood said.
You’d have to be an Ostrich on Valium not to be concerned after the NSW election.
Another fail from master strategist Lynton Crosby….
Toyota has a global ambition of zero CO2 emissions from sites and vehicles by 2050 and Toyota Australia is part of that mission,” it said, adding that significant infrastructure investment was needed before mass electric vehicle uptake was achieved.
The NRMA, Australia’s largest motoring body, has disputed the government’s claims that Labor’s policy would take away consumer choice, saying the target applies only to half the vehicles sold, it would not be met for 11 years, and that manufacturers are developing or already sell electric versions of large vehicles.
Lookout when the NRMA ( with Kristina Keneally guest spot ) starts running Ads on their high speed recharging stations built on Qld technology.
1. The EV charade was a weapon of mass distraction. Will be forgotten once the phony war is over.
2. The Budget is a green drought. Lots of greenery. But, the the ground is rock hard and impenetrable. From reports I read yesterday the Libs are so distraught at the lack of Electoral Bounce they are looking for options to delay the election.
From what I can work out, all the research says this Election is about, Health, Climate Change and Party Unity. I wonder which side is best placed to take advantage of that situation?
When ABC Radio were all but endorsing the Liberal Party the day before the election with wtte ‘polls show a tight contest despite a scandal free Gladys government and a booming economy’ repeated over and over.
Holden Hillbilly
Thanks for the story about the measles emergency in NY. This bit is alarming.
Would anyone offer their child a jar of jelly beans, knowing that at least one of the jelly beans contains a lethal amount of cyanide?
Simon² Katich® @ #116 Wednesday, April 10th, 2019 – 10:06 am
Yes, and it is hard to believe that they won’t repeat the same techniques federally.
“When ABC Radio were all but endorsing the Liberal Party the day before the election with wtte ‘polls show a tight contest despite a scandal free Gladys government and a booming economy’ repeated over and over.”
#theirABC
@ Adrian. You should also ask the question of to whom the $185 Million went to… I am sure that Serco er I mean Sir can work that one out..
Darc
Way back about 2009 Fran had some guy on who had studied the ‘agenda setting’ of Rupert and the Australian. He came up with numbers something like having 10% of the market but it sets something like 78% of the ‘political agenda’.
Listening to Fran on the way to work ,as I did then, I considered 78% a very low estimate when it came to her show. 🙂
The Coalition’s scare campaign on Electric Vehicles is dead in the water.
Toyota scuppers claim Labor’s electric vehicle policy would leave HiLux drivers stranded
The government’s claim that drivers of Australia’s most popular car, the Toyota HiLux, would be left stranded under Labor has also been undermined after the company confirmed it was on track to offer an electric version of all its models within six years.
Toyota aims to sell 5.5 million electric vehicles annually by 2030, and offer an electrified version of all its models by 2025. In a statement, Toyota Australia confirmed the company was on track to achieving those goals.
“Toyota has a global ambition of zero CO2 emissions from sites and vehicles by 2050 and Toyota Australia is part of that mission,” it said, adding that significant infrastructure investment was needed before mass electric vehicle uptake was achieved.
The NRMA, Australia’s largest motoring body, has disputed the government’s claims that Labor’s policy would take away consumer choice, saying the target applies only to half the vehicles sold, it would not be met for 11 years, and that manufacturers are developing or already sell electric versions of large vehicles.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/toyota-scuppers-claim-labor-s-electric-vehicle-policy-would-leave-hilux-drivers-stranded-20190409-p51cit.html
I reckon the NSW Labor brethren ought to get over themselves, stop blaming the media for their shortcomings and get out there and campaign for a Labor Federal Victory.
Tens of millions of dollars will be offered to the world’s automotive giants to resurrect the Australian car industry, centred around manufacturing electric and hydrogen-powered cars, under a yet-to-be unveiled Labor plan.
Key points:
Labor to offer millions to automotive giants to resurrect Australia’s car industry
The focus will be on producing electric and hydrogen-powered vehicles
Car maker research and development grants to come from a $1 billion fund
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-10/labor-tens-of-millions-to-resurrect-australian-car-industry/10985458?pfmredir=sm
“The Coalition’s scare campaign on Electric Vehicles is dead in the water.”
The EV scare campaign has served its purpose. Perfectly. You are confusing facts with politics: politics is perception.
Laurie Oakes
@LaurieOakes
ABB Launches 8-minute Charger for Electric Vehicles – Renewable Energy World
https://www.renewableenergyworld.com/articles/2018/04/abb-launches-8-minute-charger-for-electric-vehicles.html
Let’s not forget that beyond here, the view of the punters against the Libs in NSW wasn’t toxic. There was frustration and maybe disappointment, but the NSW Libs are not the Federal Libs and the NSW ALP are not the Federal ALP. Even without the media putting their fingers on the scale, Labor would have still had a hard time getting over the line.
Basically my lesson from NSW is not to get complacent and realise that any election can be lost.
Kay Martin
@KayMart08727580
Farmers will love EV utes. They can charge them using the solar panels and charger on their farm. Cost is equivalent to a landcruiser and running costs are cheaper. Torque is excellent for towing and they are quiet. Farmers are already buying electric farm bikes. Less moving
Adrian
The NSW election was line ball. We know the Nationals lost big time.
See William’s comments above not Andrew Earlwood’s for how the campaign went.
We know that Labor lost in the urban areas because the media brought up racism to beat Labor up with. I don’t think it’s going to happen Federally n
We also know Andrew Earlwood is one of Labor’s bedwetters when it comes to polling.
In his panic about NSW AE is ignoring the Queensland election result and talking down the Labor strategy to win.
It’s been a hard time in the wilderness for Labor. I wish they had been stronger on some issues. However Labor has not wasted the years in driving home its message. That’s the reason it’s the same one. Fairness and equality.
Helped this time by Turnbull confirming Its Time with his Dutton comments. All Labor has to do is get a net gain of one from the results of the last federal election.
NSW voted about the same last time. Then came Wentworth and Victoria.
So unlike AE I am holding my confidence with the results we know that the 2PP confirms.
The reason I was talking about announcing a subsidy for manufacturing in North Queensland was to give the CFMEU in Qld something to hang it’s hat on for the coal workers.
AE of course in his panicked narrative ignored this http://www.smh.com.au/
TPOF @ 9:38 am
The problem is that a House election is not in fact due at the moment, and won’t be until much later in the year. So that likely won’t be a factor in any thinking the GG might have to do. I suspect that Mr Morrison could persuade the GG to prorogue the Parliament this week without any problems: he’s the PM with (at least formally) the confidence of the House. It would be different if that had been thrown into doubt by the tabling of a no-confidence motion.
Of course, it would all look very banana republican.
GG
The ‘so what’ is with reporting the news and headlines from that source means it comes spiced with Murdoch poison and bias.
If, as some would have it, the Coalition are going to win so many Labor marginal seats and their EV scare campaign has been such a raging success, why hasn’t Morrison gone for the earliest date possible?
As I said yesterday, the pants-wetting by some here is getting tiresome.
Pedant @ 10.24
The problem is that a House election is not in fact due at the moment, and won’t be until much later in the year.
___________________________________________
It’s close enough. If the sole purpose of proroguing Parliament is to enable the Government to struggle on in power until the election without Parliament sitting I don’t think that will wash with the GG. Remember that what Kerr did in sacking a PM who had the confidence of the House was legal, just improper and unethical. What would be happening now is not a Constitutional stand-off but a blatant attempt to hold on to power without the courage to test confidence.
Personally, I doubt we will ever know what Cosgrove would do because it won’t come to that.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #125 Wednesday, April 10th, 2019 – 10:20 am
Then Labor need to turn it around into the perception that the Libs are bullshit artists of the highest order who lie through their smuggy mugs.
Andrew, I understand your concerns, however, I think the EV effort is at best a double edged sword for the Libs, and largely because – as you said – perception is everything in politics.
It made them look panicked, laughable and desperate – the look of a mob which knows it’s on the nose and will do and say anything. This lot haven’t got the runs on the board to make scare campaigns stick, because they’re so disorganized and divided themselves.
As I said, I understand the nervousness, but in this particular case, i think the campaign has been counter-productive.
‘Even without the media putting their fingers on the scale, Labor would have still had a hard time getting over the line.”
In hindsight, probably. However the effect of the coordinated Liberal-Media campaign in the last week was to diffuse the protest vote such that the independent and minor party vote still exhausted in large numbers: this cost Labor East Hills and Upper Hunter. Probably Penrith and Tweed. Maybe even Goulburn, Heathcote, Seven Hills and Holsworthy. Maybe. From the horses mouth I was told that internal party polling clearly indicated that 8 seats were in play for Labor with one week to go, yet we only picked up 2. I understand that the Liberals own internal polling told a very similar story.
poroti @ #131 Wednesday, April 10th, 2019 – 10:24 am
Here in Victoria, it doesn’t matter. and no one is that fussed. We just get on with the job!
ScoMo on the ABC. I must warn you that
1. Shorten cannot explain the cost of his policies (the birthday cake accusation).
2. In any case, every time he opens his mouth, he’s lying (don’t trust him).
3. We’re doing everything already, including lowering carbon emissions.
At the end ScoMo looked a little self-consciously pink, and then produced the smug smirk.
Even he knew that he was stretching the truth, I suspect.
And yet according to Chris Bowen and the LNP, the federal government should aim to push households deeper into debt by trying to run fiscal surpluses. Gross household debt is already at the record high of 120 percent of GDP. Wages are stagnating. House prices are falling. It is reckless to try to manipulate households into taking on even more debt. The household sector as a whole probably will not cooperate with the LNP-ALP unity ticket of trying to push households deeper into debt. The federal government should be net adding to the domestic private sector’s financial wealth (by running fiscal deficits that are larger than the nation’s current account deficits), not net deleting domestic private sector financial wealth (which is what a fiscal surplus does).
guytaur @ #129 Wednesday, April 10th, 2019 – 10:23 am
It’s true that they threw a deliberately timed media beat-up into the mix there.
However it’s also true that the Labor leader in NSW made the racist statement which enabled the beat-up in the first place.
Both sides acted wrongly. Daley shouldn’t have said the thing, and the media should have reported on it immediately after he said it instead of intentionally sitting on it until a few days before an election.
There’s a lot of fear here about the power of the media and its ability to get Scomo over the line, based on NSW. In Victoria it was exactly the same media organisations lined up against the Andrews’ government – Murdoch, ABC, Fairfax-Nine, Seven, Macquarie, etc. – but Labor won with 57% of the vote (even with the Bourke St beat-up). Rednecks in NSW and Qld are not enough to get Scomo elected this time.
“We also know Andrew Earlwood is one of Labor’s bedwetters when it comes to polling.”
That’s just rubbish Guytaur, I was the most bullish Bludger about Labor’s prospects in NSW – to the extent that I looked ridiculous in hindsight.
I’ve gone for a 53-47 2PP guess for the last two months in the Newspoll and Essential guessing games. I’ve always called shenanigans on the ‘great narrowing’ narrative that Turnbull and his urgers peddled last year.
That said. I suspect ‘the narrowing’ this time is real and there won’t be much joy for Labor in Queensland and NSW; Labor can only draw or go backwards in Tasmania and NT; SA will likely be a non event and it all comes down to whether Labor can actually realise gains in Victoria and WA.
TPOF @ 10:31 am
The problem with that, though, is that a number of the independents whose support would be required for a no-confidence motion to succeed are, at least formally, still on the record as committed to providing “confidence and supply”. Mr Morrison could point to that.
He could also justify a prorogation on the ground that it would free up members and senators to campaign for the half Senate election which will definitely be held in the next six or seven weeks.
The Coalition’s EV scare campaign can’t be going too well if Michaelia Cash has deleted a tweet about it:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D3rMpPYUEAEnuB2?format=png&name=small
Andrew_Earlwood says:
Wednesday, April 10, 2019 at 10:20 am
“The Coalition’s scare campaign on Electric Vehicles is dead in the water.”
The EV scare campaign has served its purpose. Perfectly. You are confusing facts with politics: politics is perception.
__________________________________________
I take your point about the EV campaign being rolled out as a disruptor to the speech in reply, but I’m with others thinking it will be a massive own goal by the time the election rolls around.
While I’m very turned on to political issues (unlike the general voting public) when it comes to cars I’m back in the rear of the peloton (to mix metaphors). I have never given any thought to the likelihood that my next car would be electric, because that is associated with being ‘green’ rather than practical, but this campaign has made me think about it.
I wonder how many of the target audience will also start to look at the facts that are flooding out and what is happening overseas with electric vehicles and start to think that wide availability of electric vehicles, including utes/pickups is looking attractive. And how many weeks to the election will they have to do it in?
Pedant says:
Wednesday, April 10, 2019 at 10:40 am
TPOF @ 10:31 am
The problem with that, though, is that a number of the independents whose support would be required for a no-confidence motion to succeed are, at least formally, still on the record as committed to providing “confidence and supply”. Mr Morrison could point to that.
He could also justify a prorogation on the ground that it would free up members and senators to campaign for the half Senate election which will definitely be held in the next six or seven weeks.
______________________________________
Good points. Of course, the cross-benchers, other than Katter (and maybe even him) can write to the GG to give him their views. I still don’t think it will happen.
This isn’t new news but might interest some in the light of the comments this morning on the relevance of the NSW election to the federal one, whenever it will be.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2019/04/06/inside-the-liberal-partys-dirt-unit/15544692007948
darc,
I don’t know your wife. But she seems to know you.
Neither Kelly nor the ABC are there to present the news you want to hear in the way you want to hear it. It’s a national programme focussed on national issues. If you don’t likey, turn on Alan Jones or the racing station to get your news.
I reckon there is enough diversity of opinion and issues to get the full story. And, you can always find follow up information elsewhere.
There a few things that really helped the Andrews government.
Their record of delivering against what they had promised to do.
Being in government – no change required…
The opposition not really having anything resembling policy.
The federal government disunity (despite Matthew Guy running perhaps the most unified LNP coalition team in the country).
It might be the case the case that Shorten wins small this election and might win bigger the next.