The window for a May 11 election has passed, which would seem to narrow it down to May 18 or May 25, with the former seeming more likely given concerns expressed in the past about the latter. Some details on where things may or may not stand:
• Roy Morgan has published its weekly face-to-face poll result, normally available only to subscribers, but occasionally sent out in the wild when its proprietor has a point to make. This time, it’s that the government’s position has improved post-budget, with the Labor lead not at 52.5-47.5, from 55-45 last week (it may be observed that the organisation wasn’t duly excited by any of the results that got Labor to that position in the first place). On the primary vote, the Coalition was up 2.5% to 37%, Labor down 1.5% to 35%, the Greens up 1% to 13.5% (Morgan sharing Ipsos’s apparent skew to the Greens) and One Nation up half a point to 4%. The poll was conducted on the weekend from a face-to-face sample of 829 respondents.
• Michael Koziol of the Sydney Morning Herald reported on the weekend of Liberal polling that was “diabolically bad” for Tony Abbott in Warringah. Abbott’s primary vote is said to be down 12% on his 51.6% in 2016, which would indeed leave him a fair way short of competitive. Nonetheless, Liberal sources quoted by Koziol were optimistic Abbott would hang on, in part because of “a $1 million war chest from fundraising and his Advance Australia lobby group allies”. Whether that confidence remains intact now they have had a look at how Advance Australia plans on spending that money is not yet known.
• Other than that, the Liberals appear upbeat about their prospects in New South Wales. The Sydney Morning Herald reports optimism Kerryn Phelps’s win in Wentworth will prove to have been a one-off, now that voters there have vented their spleen about the removal of Malcolm Turnbull. Furthermore, the Sydney Morning Herald report says the Liberals believe they are in front in Lindsay – a claim that is both corroborated by Labor sources, and fleshed out in a report yesterday by Andrew Clennell of The Australian, which says the party’s polling credits them with a lead of 53-47. Clennell’s Liberal sources were particularly bullish, claiming leads in Dobell – on which Koziol’s source was more circumspect – and also to have the lead in their existing seats of Reid, Gilmore and Robertson. A Nationals source cited in Clennell’s report believes the party to be “marginally ahead” in their Mid North Coast seat of Page.
• Nonetheless, Labor is reportedly hopeful of maintaining the status quo in New South Wales, considering that Gilmore or Reid might balance a loss in Lindsay (apparently not rating a mention is Banks, which I for one would have thought vulnerable). Beyond New South Wales, Labor “believes it will win at least nine – and probably more – elsewhere”. Ben Packham of The Australian reported on the week end that Labor feels too secure in Victoria to devote resources to any of its own seats, and will target five held by the Coalition with “full field” campaigns: Dunkley, Corangamite, La Trobe, Chisholm and Deakin.
• The Australian reports Nick Xenophon’s Centre Alliance will only field candidates in Mayo, which is held for the party by Rebekha Sharkie, along with Grey and Barker, where they have respectively endorsed Andrea Broadfoot and Kelly Gladigau. The party’s predecessor, the Nick Xenophon Team, polled 21.3% across South Australia in 2016, and finished second in Grey, Barker and Port Adelaide (the latter now abolished).
• Jamie Walker of The Australian notes that Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party, which has endorsed candidates in more seats than any party other than Labor, has nonetheless left open its Queensland Senate ticket and the Townsville-based seat of Herbert. Palmer earlier maintained he would run in Herbert, but few now expect that to happen, given the certainty he would fail there.
• There’s a redistribution in train in the Northern Territory, which Ben Raue at The Tally Room is on top of if you’re interested.
Cud Chewer
says:
You have no clue about this nath. There is no possible future in which copper has not been replaced with fibre. None. All this government has achieved is spending tens of billions creating a temporary network, delaying the inevitable roll out of fibre and forcing us to pay twice.
You make yourself look foolish when you support bad policy.
___________________________________
OK. I had forgot about the whole panic about the copper network coming to an end. I don’t know how much truth there is in that but fair enough. If that is the case then there was obviously a need a full FTTP build was probably necessary. I surrender. I just have grave doubts about the competence of Turnbull or Conroy to get anything right let alone find the right solution in this area. Can we not forget that Conroy spent years alienating the youth of this country with his stupid internet filter idea. He did not seem to me to be the man who had the answers.
Thanks BK. Here’s PvO on the cash for access to Dutton. I agree this is worse than Sam Dastyari.
https://twitter.com/Sandra_Sully/status/1115518844246691840
On this day in 1974… Gough called a double dissolution
He won the election but it was the beginning of the end…
‘I’m disappointed that its not official Labor policy to appoint a RC into the dodgy dealings that went on when Turnbull took over the NBN.’
Typical.
They’ve just rolled over. The average punter thinks Labor created the NBN.
The NBN is a mess. Ergo, Labor has made a mess of the NBN.
I no longer frequent a cafe in town now because of an argument with the proprietor who told me her new NBN was hopeless. After some comments from me she said, what’s it got to do with Malcolm? After attempting to explain the difference between the coalition’s policy and Labor’s I gave up because it turned out she had no idea in relation to technology, roll out, MTM…etc. It was just the NBN as far as she was concerned.
NBN=mess. NBN=Labor.
A simple equation to many.
No spokesperson from the ALP over the last few days has actually named Turnbull or Abbott as the architects of NBN .2
None have explained simply what the issue is.
Disappointing, but not surprising.
Howard, Vaille and Downer got away scott free….so will Abbott and Turnbull.
Very interesting article about the ownership of UComm. it’s the CFMMEU and the ACTU.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-10/political-polling-company-ucomms-ties-to-unions-cfmmeu-and-actu/10945798
New York City on Tuesday took the highly unusual step of declaring a public health emergency in parts of Brooklyn, ordering mandatory measles vaccinations amid a broad ― and growing ― outbreak of the highly contagious virus there.
The order focuses on four ZIP codes in the Williamsburg area inhabited by a large Orthodox Jewish community: 11205, 11206, 11211 and 11249.
Since Sept. 30, the area has produced 285 measles cases, city officials said at a press conference Tuesday, including 246 children. Of the 285, 21 people have been hospitalized and five have been admitted to the intensive care unit.
While a public campaign launched in coordination with local community leaders has resulted in 8,000 vaccinations in the area, New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio said it wasn’t sufficient. An estimated 1,800 children in the neighborhood are still unvaccinated, so it was “time to take a more muscular approach,” he said.
Reports of people hosting “measles parties” to deliberately expose their children to the illness added additional urgency. Per the CDC, one to two children out of every 1,000 who contract the disease die from it
Good Morning
With the Adani decision the LNP have lost Queensland.
They might win in the North but they will lose in the South East. I am basing my conclusion on why Labor won the state campaign.
Remember the Labor U turn from supporting to opposing.
The LNP outsmarted themselves. It was a cunning plan Baldrick style.
Voters in North Queensland now know their Federal vote is irrelevant on saving coal jobs.
It’s up there with Captain GetUp! and “Utebans”
Morrison presser now
Morning all. This article on Melissa Price is telling on the cynical abuses of power passing for government in the last days of ScumMo.
“The Queensland environment minister, Leeanne Enoch, said the federal process “reeks of political interference”.
Guardian Australia understands the Queensland Department of Environment and Science, the state approval authority, had not had access to the Geoscience Australia and CSIRO reports until 30 minutes prior to the federal government’s announcement on Tuesday. The reports were completed in February”.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/apr/09/adani-coalmine-scientific-reviews-appear-to-give-queensland-trigger-to-block-project
Guytaur
I agree. As I have said before, if Labor could find a billion to fund some non coal jobs in central Qld, while not funding Adani, they will both protect workers and win seats. Rookwood weir would be a good example.
Sohar
Tony Jones shut down talk about the NBN after the 2013 election as well. Turnbull well and truly nobbled the ABC on that issue starting with his hounding of an ABC journo (Nick Ross) out of his job.
Socrates
Building electric car charging stations would be a good place to start. All Labor has to do is encourage a Brisbane based company to have a manufacturing plant in North Queensland
Edit: Link. https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/australia-set-to-be-a-leader-in-1-7-trillion-battery-industry-20181107-p50ehm.html
Just required a slight adjustment:
“Why coalition politicians only pretend to care about low income earners”
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/why-politicians-only-pretend-to-care-about-low-income-earners-20190409-p51c9c.html
And still is. Fibre is inevitable nath. All we’ve done is spend tens of billions postponing the inevitable. Tens of billions wasted. By this government. Does that not revolt you?
Socrates @ #60 Wednesday, April 10th, 2019 – 8:25 am
I’m sure they’re working on it.
So what’s our PM whinging about now lol
Fawlty Brexit.
Zoid
Not sure. I did hear an eerily familiar slogan. Heading in the Right Direction.
There are a lot of things that a party can only safely do with the political capital of having won government.
Things like cancelling coal mines, rebuilding NBNs, carbon prices etc. Labor has left itself plenty of scope to act in these areas without contradicting anything it has said in opposition.
The test of the government will be in a years or two’s time, not in the heat of the election campaign.
Will Setka be speaking at todays rally.
MY CURRENT PREDICTION FOR FEDERAL ELECTION HOR SEATS
NSW
—-
LIB gain from LAB: Lindsay
LIB gain fro IND: Wentworth
Vic
—-
LAB gain from LIB: Dunkley, Corangomite, La Trobe
LIB gain from IND: Indi
SA
—-
LAB gain from LIB: Boothby
Qld
—-
LNP gain from LAB: Herbert
LAB gain from LNP: Capricornia, Forde
WA
—-
LAB gain from LIB: Hasluck
Tas
—-
LIB gain from LAB: Braddon, Lyons
Don’t have the mathematical skills to calculate what kind of a final makeup this translates to. Another hung parliament?
AJM
Labor is promising subsidies today for electric vehicle manufacturing and research. That includes building battery charging stations.
No reason why specifically promising some money for such in North Queensland would be a bad idea.
I still think there is a lot more to come from labor re EV policy.
As I have posted previously I found it interesting that Shorten made the EV policy front and centre of the labor climate action announcement last week.
As well, Shorten directly mentioned a future EV industry in Australia. This was not widely picked up at the time.
Further, Kim Carr is and always has been a strong supporter of a car industry in Australia.
More to come on this I would think. Atm it would not surprise me if labor is deliberately letting Morrison and co rant on about this issue. Shorten and labor are not worried one little bit and are, in fact, ridiculing the bullshit.
On the other hand I could be completely wrong.
The LNP just sound barking mad on EVs.
Can’t they see saying any old crap that rattles into your empty head (especially when you’re on records saying the opposite) won’t win votes?
“The LNP just sound barking mad on EVs”
If the Liberals hadn’t already lost electorates like Kooyong, Higgins and Flinders, they have now.
Brexit conservatives are imploding.
The UE looking to impose 12 months stay on the UK with provisions to prevent the UK disrupting the E.U. while they remain.. total humiliation
Now the Monarchy is being called into question..
Andrew Lilico
@andrew_lilico
If the Monarchy cannot even intervene, one way or another, in a matter such as the Cooper-Letwin Bill, it is absurd to believe it cld stand up against an elected Communist or Fascist Parliament. Our monarchy has demonstrated itself no longer fit for purpose, alas.
Oh & the E.U. also calls Corby & Labour disingenuous .. what a mess, hopefully Abbott will have Time on his hands to go & help Boris
Cameron, your prediction leaves us with basically the same parliament as now and the Libs back in power.
In fact you have the govt gaining seats, which is bold in light two years of consistent polling showing them copping a pizzling
Cameron C. @ #72 Wednesday, April 10th, 2019 – 8:41 am
—
The mathematical skills you require for that prediction are a water diviner, 2 bottles of Johnny Walker and a bring-back-Tony poster on your dunny wall. Good luck with that. There is no way the Libs will win back any seats in Tassie at the very least and you have miscalculated Labor gains/retains in every State. Wishful thinking.
caf, if you’re reading, from the previous thread…
caf @ #742 Wednesday, April 10th, 2019 – 12:05 am
Sorry, my error. What happened is we as consumers dropped the DVD portion of our subscription and our cost dropped, and we (I) lost interest. Memory. Unreliable. Very.
Thanks for the correction. 🙂
LOL
https://www.pedestrian.tv/news/captain-getup-fuck-off/
sprocket @ 7:00 am
“A real left fielder, but a compliant Governor General could agree to a half Senate election, and prorogue Parliament to avoid a no confidence motion. With the Supply Bills passed and assented to, we could have Scotty ‘rule by decree’ till August/September.”
The agreement of the Governor General isn’t required in order to have a half Senate election. Prorogation is a real option, but it would get interesting if the Parliament were to meet on Monday, and a no-confidence motion were to be tabled. At that point, the GG would have to consider carefully whether to accept the advice of a PM whose support in the House was questionable. Mind you, there was a precedent in Canada some years back for the prorogation of the Parliament on the strength of advice from a PM who appeared to have lost the numbers. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008%E2%80%9309_Canadian_parliamentary_dispute#Prorogation_of_parliament
GG @ 8:16am re uComms – I love the way they say “There is no suggestion the outcome of uComms polling is influenced by its ownership structure” and yet that very suggestion is implied throughout almost every other para of the article.
“Cameron, your prediction leaves us with basically the same parliament as now and the Libs back in power.
In fact you have the govt gaining seats, which is bold in light two years of consistent polling showing them copping a pizzling”
– Never underestimate the power of Alan Jones and the Murdoch media.
I’d love to know what put EV in the head of the Coalition as the election saving buzz word , especially after they approved the ADANI mine when they did not have to given the Qld Labor Government have the final say – obfuscating on Adani neutralised the issue for Schomo’s Liberal mates in QLD and VIC where the election will be lost and won. The QLD Nats could have blamed Labor for the delay. Two own goals on climate change and energy policy will not play out well with doctors wives in seats like Tones Warringah and Wentworth in NSW as well. No wonder Scomo hit the roof after Price went off the reservation under LNP pressure.
Cameron, you admit that you have no mathematical skills. I think that applies to each of your seat predictions as well as your confessed inability to add up the total!
If ScoMo prorogues parliament so that he can rule by decree until later in the year, come the eventual election at least an extra dozen Lib/Nat will lose their seats. Morrison and his God are mad enough to do it.
Parliament doesn’t have to be prorogued to avoid no-confidence motions. It just has to not sit.
Yes, while it’s difficult to get any message out there, given the current state of our media, it does sometimes appear that Labor has not learnt enough from its recent period in government.
Never really defended the school halls, pink batts, economic management memes that got hold among the ignorant or disinterested, and now they’re almost accepted fact.
– Never underestimate the power of Alan Jones and the Murdoch media.
___________________________________
It’s been overestimated for some time now.
The sacking of Turnbull for no reason that made sense to the general public will be the death knell of this government. Nothing turns off the non-committed voter more than a political party playing internal games while they should be governing.
Labor will make this point as the election campaign grinds on. As will Turnbull by simply being in the public consciousness through well-timed commentary, as per his comments on Dutton yesterday.
Alan Jones recently had a dig at a profession I have regular dealing with. It was a dangerous dig that could have life threatening consequences – but I cant go into more detail.
It made me think about the influence of peeps like Jones and those at SKY and Fox (and even the Oz). And todays Politico has this….
https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/04/09/fox-news-rupert-murdoch-226612
Is it these fringe haters and baiters that are the problem? Or is it the way mainstream media propagate their bile either in ridicule or as news (or entertainment)?
If John Howard were still PM, with the same dire polling for his government, he would have parliament sitting for every possible day, so he could introduce new anti-terror legislation every five minutes. It probably wouldn’t work, but it would have a better chance than running and hiding.
On a scale of one to Peter Dutton …
https://www.betootaadvocate.com/breaking-news/dutton-quiz/
(Apologies if already posted).
Also from the Politico article…
The problem with the Murdoch media is that despite its declining readership and increasingly crazy and unhinged stories, it influences other, more seemingly benign media voices.
You only have to see or listen to the seemingly endless parade of Murdoch acolytes appearing on the ABC to realise this, let alone listen to the news, which often seems to be sourced directly from The Australian or some other Murdoch shit sheet.
Forget Alan Jones.
Malcom Turnbull plays the “lover scorned” with aplomb
Malcolm Turnbull plays the “lover scorned” with aplomb
Labor have deliberately avoided the Murdoch press simply because they are not helpful or relevant to communicating the messages they wish to promote.
In Victoria, Queensland and other jurisdictions the MSM have run relentless anti Labor campaigns. Yet, they all overcame this alleged problem to secure victories. Shorten even declined a meeting with Murdoch recently. In SA and NSW, Labor lost on merit not because of any media campaigns.
Labor are communicating with their target audiences and seem on track for victory after 50 plus Poll Victories and a well received Budget reply. this comes about through hardwork and good grass roots campaigning.
I’d trust the judgement of Shorten and the people who have put Labor in such a strong position over the nervous fretters, fair weather friends and armchair experts that seem to populate this blog every day of the week.
The Governor-General will not prorogue Parliament to avoid a general election, which would appear a totally blatant political manoeuvre. He will have in mind the contumely rightly heaped on John Kerr when he intervened in a political manner. If it was another part of the electoral cycle, then fine. But not with a Senate election due and a government that would need to test its numbers on the floor of the house.
The Canadian example linked above by Pedant was interesting, as an election had only recently been held and the Opposition ‘Coalition’ was under severe internal pressure (and collapsed anyway as it turned out). In that case the GG read the political tea leaves and saw that longer term stability was most likely to be achieved by accepting the advice of her PM. In this case, with an election due anyway, all that would ensue would be further chaos. Cosgrove would be unlikely, in my view, to prorogue Parliament at least until it met as scheduled to test the government’s numbers. If they were dicy and there was no clear majority for anyone it would be appropriate for the GG to either suggest that Morrison advise him to call the election or tell Morrison that he will ask Shorten to be PM (Kerr did not forewarn Whitlam, which was his sin).
Well said GG!