The window for a May 11 election has passed, which would seem to narrow it down to May 18 or May 25, with the former seeming more likely given concerns expressed in the past about the latter. Some details on where things may or may not stand:
• Roy Morgan has published its weekly face-to-face poll result, normally available only to subscribers, but occasionally sent out in the wild when its proprietor has a point to make. This time, it’s that the government’s position has improved post-budget, with the Labor lead not at 52.5-47.5, from 55-45 last week (it may be observed that the organisation wasn’t duly excited by any of the results that got Labor to that position in the first place). On the primary vote, the Coalition was up 2.5% to 37%, Labor down 1.5% to 35%, the Greens up 1% to 13.5% (Morgan sharing Ipsos’s apparent skew to the Greens) and One Nation up half a point to 4%. The poll was conducted on the weekend from a face-to-face sample of 829 respondents.
• Michael Koziol of the Sydney Morning Herald reported on the weekend of Liberal polling that was “diabolically bad” for Tony Abbott in Warringah. Abbott’s primary vote is said to be down 12% on his 51.6% in 2016, which would indeed leave him a fair way short of competitive. Nonetheless, Liberal sources quoted by Koziol were optimistic Abbott would hang on, in part because of “a $1 million war chest from fundraising and his Advance Australia lobby group allies”. Whether that confidence remains intact now they have had a look at how Advance Australia plans on spending that money is not yet known.
• Other than that, the Liberals appear upbeat about their prospects in New South Wales. The Sydney Morning Herald reports optimism Kerryn Phelps’s win in Wentworth will prove to have been a one-off, now that voters there have vented their spleen about the removal of Malcolm Turnbull. Furthermore, the Sydney Morning Herald report says the Liberals believe they are in front in Lindsay – a claim that is both corroborated by Labor sources, and fleshed out in a report yesterday by Andrew Clennell of The Australian, which says the party’s polling credits them with a lead of 53-47. Clennell’s Liberal sources were particularly bullish, claiming leads in Dobell – on which Koziol’s source was more circumspect – and also to have the lead in their existing seats of Reid, Gilmore and Robertson. A Nationals source cited in Clennell’s report believes the party to be “marginally ahead” in their Mid North Coast seat of Page.
• Nonetheless, Labor is reportedly hopeful of maintaining the status quo in New South Wales, considering that Gilmore or Reid might balance a loss in Lindsay (apparently not rating a mention is Banks, which I for one would have thought vulnerable). Beyond New South Wales, Labor “believes it will win at least nine – and probably more – elsewhere”. Ben Packham of The Australian reported on the week end that Labor feels too secure in Victoria to devote resources to any of its own seats, and will target five held by the Coalition with “full field” campaigns: Dunkley, Corangamite, La Trobe, Chisholm and Deakin.
• The Australian reports Nick Xenophon’s Centre Alliance will only field candidates in Mayo, which is held for the party by Rebekha Sharkie, along with Grey and Barker, where they have respectively endorsed Andrea Broadfoot and Kelly Gladigau. The party’s predecessor, the Nick Xenophon Team, polled 21.3% across South Australia in 2016, and finished second in Grey, Barker and Port Adelaide (the latter now abolished).
• Jamie Walker of The Australian notes that Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party, which has endorsed candidates in more seats than any party other than Labor, has nonetheless left open its Queensland Senate ticket and the Townsville-based seat of Herbert. Palmer earlier maintained he would run in Herbert, but few now expect that to happen, given the certainty he would fail there.
• There’s a redistribution in train in the Northern Territory, which Ben Raue at The Tally Room is on top of if you’re interested.
Can’t unscramble an egg, Rex.
Yes. Just whinging about is indeed just that. However, you can not avoid the fact that so many of the debates that voters hear and so much of the information voters get comes from, or is influenced by, the media. And ‘the media’ is a contested space that is… contested. For example, the Liberal Party have for years put in a deal of effort to shift the balance in the ABC. You might want to shrug your shoulders at that but meekly sitting back and watching that happen with the attitude that the ALP can just play those cards they are dealt with ignores the cold hard realty of politics in the modern era.
Yes, focus your efforts. Grass roots politics is essential and in many ways more important. And yes, avoid the Oz and the Daily Terror and SKY and 2GB. Encourage and assist smaller progressive, left or centrist news outlets. But to give up on contesting and keeping to account all MSM, especially the ABC but also commercial TV news, would be a disaster for progressive and worker aligned politics in this country.
a r,
Of course private vehicles do damage, otherwise local roads would never get pot holes or need maintenance. This is clearly wrong.
Secondly, the last thing you want to encourage is for people to drive more than they have to. This is a perverse incentive that will end up costing more. You don’t choose to be unhealthy, but you can choose to drive more than you need to. Visiting the doctors more than you need is better than visiting less. Driving more than you need is worse than less.
“The alternative party of government always votes more frequently with the party of government and third parties have the luxury of always voting exactly how they want.”
It’s not like someone is holding a gun to the heads of Labor senators and forcing them to vote with the Coalition when they do. Labor chooses to vote with them. Also, the “alternative party of government” argument is rather irrelevant considering the government is not formed in the Senate. Even if it was, just because Labor is half of the two party establishment doesn’t in any way make it mandatory for them to support the other half of the establishment. Again, they choose to do so.
“Not excusing it (I often disagree when it happens), and I’m not wasting my vote on the Greens, but there’s nothing new on this.”
This tired old “wasted vote” spin from Labor really is insulting to voters. If we used a first past the post system then this argument may have more weight, but we don’t. Stop treating the electorate like idiots.
“And I hate that I’ve just been sucked into this place’s most POINTLESS arguments. No one’s mind is being changed here. No one’s.”
Perhaps not. This is the post-truth world we live in unfortunately. What may be actually factual is often simply dismissed as, dare I say it, “fake news”. Facts no longer matter to some people, particularly those on the far right (I’m not suggesting anyone here is of the far right mind you). They decide if something is true or false based on their own beliefs rather than hard evidence.
caf @ #251 Wednesday, April 10th, 2019 – 1:23 pm
That’s a weak copout.
No reason why they can’t do FTTC in FTTN areas at the very least .
Interesting that Bowen getting a number of questions that are NOT related to his role as Shadow Treasurer in a forum that should be focused on that. Not a good sign for the Muppets as the journo’s dont appear interested in pinning him down on anything negative in terms of $ and have moved on.
“A ‘responsible opposition’ doesn’t fall in behind terrible policy out of fear of a politically difficult policy debate.”
Couldn’t have put it better myself.
Response from Toyota:
“Toyota Australia were not consulted on the use of the HiLux in government materials. We can confirm Toyota is on track with global plans to electrify the entire vehicle line up by 2025”
https://twitter.com/patty_mitchell/status/1115808586855145472
That raises a obvious question whether the Government will be lobbying Toyota to abandon their global plans for electrification as part of their ‘save the ute’ campaign. We can look forward to it not being asked.
Firefox says:
Wednesday, April 10, 2019 at 12:54 pm
Sorry to introduce logic here, but something passed with the support of the Opposition is less likely to be reversed with a change of Government, so it makes sense to try and find a consensus there first.
KJ @ #253 Wednesday, April 10th, 2019 – 1:25 pm
Yes and no. You don’t choose to fall sick or injured, yes. But choices made around diet and exercise and other aspects can lead to chronic health issues and a greater predisposition towards becoming ill or injured.
Nobody chooses to have lung cancer, but many choose to smoke, etc., etc..
If someone steals an electric vehicle will they be charged?
Bowen finished on well.
No-one questioned him on newstart.
Well maybe but the priority needs to remain with finishing the rollout before fixing up the FTTN areas (and I say that as someone a bit cheesed off about being in such an area myself!).
And who knows what big contracts for loads of FTTN equipment NBNCo has already signed under the direction of this government?
“If someone steals an electric vehicle will they be charged?”
Oh FFS….get help GG! 🙂
Greensborough Growler says:
Wednesday, April 10, 2019 at 1:32 pm
Only if they’re short!
KJ
It is my understanding that local roads get potholes mostly from the action of the weather. They’d still degrade even if no-one was using them. Whereas the degradation of highways is mostly down to heavy vehicles.
imacca @ #265 Wednesday, April 10th, 2019 – 1:35 pm
What bright spark would do that anyway ?
GG
It depends how they conduct themselves.
Rex Douglas says:
Wednesday, April 10, 2019 at 1:34 pm
Why would they?
The answer is well known.
KJ
To be honest modern cars have gotten heavier but also have wider tires. Their ground pressure is not very much. Most can be parked on grass while hardly indenting the soil. Most cars weight two tonnes or less and have two axles. Almost all the damage to road pavements is done by trucks. Trucks have a legal axle loading of 8 tonnes per double axle (4 tyres). So a car axle loading is eight times less than a truck. The damage is proportional to the fourth power of the axle loading. Hence a single semi damages a road pavement more than 1000 cars. The truth is that motorists subsidise the trucking industry (heavily). This has been known since studies going back to the 1980s. However no government since then has ever been game to charge truck owners realistic rego fees to reflect their damage. We subsidise private trucks to send state owned railroads broke. Genius.
Yes, with assault on battery.
Porter shamelessly grandstanding now.
Barney in Saigon @ #270 Wednesday, April 10th, 2019 – 1:39 pm
The answer is bulltish and needs to be interrogated.
The real consequence of the Coalition being elected in 2013 and 2016 means the NBN has pissed $50 Billion up against a wall where connections speeds can be as low as 12 Mbps.
To upgrade\fix this mess will require 10’s of billions, the question is should the government pay for it or can another way be found… I am just not sure to be honest… it is really a tricky one, also there is just no quick fix, it will take a long time.
Bowen’s response to the kid from the Australian Financial Review was excellent
No doubt the kid – and Costello and the Australian Public – were taught a lesson
And the current AG should look at some of the farming practices uncovered by activists – because they are not necessarily pristine
Shades of the response to needles in strawberries – remember them?
Very good Jolyon. 🙂 🙂 🙂
Greensborough Growler @ #261 Wednesday, April 10th, 2019 – 1:32 pm
Only if they can remand him for more than 8 minutes…
P.S, they also arrested a teenager at the same time for stealing a fire cracker, but they decided to let him off.
Rex Douglas says:
Wednesday, April 10, 2019 at 1:41 pm
Barney in Saigon @ #270 Wednesday, April 10th, 2019 – 1:39 pm
Rex Douglas says:
Wednesday, April 10, 2019 at 1:34 pm
The answer is a most excellent one for a number of reasons, one of which is because it pisses you off right royally! 😆
GG is a gas. Shocking joke.
Jolyon Wagg @ #269 Wednesday, April 10th, 2019 – 1:38 pm
Thats Shocking.
Ye gads! See what you started GG!
Positivley Electric humour here on PB today. 🙂
Porter going the smear and thus saying 4C missed the real scoop
Gawd – Porter grasping at straws. Face requires inviting important people to weddings – that person needn’t be known or well known by the person issuing the invitation.
Is the daughter an Aussie citizen?
GG is a gas. Shocking joke.
___
It does have potential.
‘Greensborough Growler says:
Wednesday, April 10, 2019 at 1:32 pm
If someone steals an electric vehicle will they be charged?’
There’s always a bright spark somewhere.
BK
It has its positive side. And its negative side.
“The real consequence of the Coalition being elected in 2013 and 2016 means the NBN has pissed $50 Billion up against a wall where connections speeds can be as low as 12 Mbps.
To upgrade\fix this mess will require 10’s of billions, the question is should the government pay for it or can another way be found… I am just not sure to be honest… it is really a tricky one, also there is just no quick fix, it will take a long time.”
People will look back at the election of the Abbott gov as a very dark chapter in Australia’s history for decades to come. Put aside everything else for a second, the sabotaging of the NBN on it’s own has set Australia back decades and cost us an unknown amount of money in the order of hundreds of billions of dollars. The true cost will never be known. How do you put a value on all the lost business opportunities that would have been available to Australian if they had access to a truly modern telecommunications network? The construction costs of the network itself is just the tip of the iceberg.
Porter auditioning for the LOTO job.
I’m positive that will win Gold ! for Jolyon Wagg 🙂
I see which way the current is flowing on these EV jokes. Resistance is futile.
Ohm my God. Watt? Why is everyone arcing up?
The wedding thing Porter is referencing was posted as an article by Latika M Bourke two years ago
Watt does?
Its about time Bludgers conducted themselves in a positive manner on this site.
Firefox @ #288 Wednesday, April 10th, 2019 – 1:52 pm
All thanks to Labor internal treachery and treason that tore down the Gillard-Milne-Indy progressive Govt and delivered Abbott.
“Ohm my God. Watt? Why is everyone arcing up?”
An election is looming! Political tragics have been waiting since 2016 to get back into it!
Oh bugger.
Cant keep up.
Hilariously there are now a multitude of Captain GetUp accounts proliferating on twitter, confusing the issue even more. One of them has already exceeded the following of the “official” Captain GetUp account
caf says: Wednesday, April 10, 2019 at 1:39 pm
If someone steals an electric vehicle will they be charged?
Yes, with assault on battery.
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Is that the current law ????