Phony war communiques

A pre-campaign assembly of polling and scuttlebutt about the respective parties’ prospects for an election that must surely be called very soon.

The window for a May 11 election has passed, which would seem to narrow it down to May 18 or May 25, with the former seeming more likely given concerns expressed in the past about the latter. Some details on where things may or may not stand:

• Roy Morgan has published its weekly face-to-face poll result, normally available only to subscribers, but occasionally sent out in the wild when its proprietor has a point to make. This time, it’s that the government’s position has improved post-budget, with the Labor lead not at 52.5-47.5, from 55-45 last week (it may be observed that the organisation wasn’t duly excited by any of the results that got Labor to that position in the first place). On the primary vote, the Coalition was up 2.5% to 37%, Labor down 1.5% to 35%, the Greens up 1% to 13.5% (Morgan sharing Ipsos’s apparent skew to the Greens) and One Nation up half a point to 4%. The poll was conducted on the weekend from a face-to-face sample of 829 respondents.

• Michael Koziol of the Sydney Morning Herald reported on the weekend of Liberal polling that was “diabolically bad” for Tony Abbott in Warringah. Abbott’s primary vote is said to be down 12% on his 51.6% in 2016, which would indeed leave him a fair way short of competitive. Nonetheless, Liberal sources quoted by Koziol were optimistic Abbott would hang on, in part because of “a $1 million war chest from fundraising and his Advance Australia lobby group allies”. Whether that confidence remains intact now they have had a look at how Advance Australia plans on spending that money is not yet known.

• Other than that, the Liberals appear upbeat about their prospects in New South Wales. The Sydney Morning Herald reports optimism Kerryn Phelps’s win in Wentworth will prove to have been a one-off, now that voters there have vented their spleen about the removal of Malcolm Turnbull. Furthermore, the Sydney Morning Herald report says the Liberals believe they are in front in Lindsay – a claim that is both corroborated by Labor sources, and fleshed out in a report yesterday by Andrew Clennell of The Australian, which says the party’s polling credits them with a lead of 53-47. Clennell’s Liberal sources were particularly bullish, claiming leads in Dobell – on which Koziol’s source was more circumspect – and also to have the lead in their existing seats of Reid, Gilmore and Robertson. A Nationals source cited in Clennell’s report believes the party to be “marginally ahead” in their Mid North Coast seat of Page.

• Nonetheless, Labor is reportedly hopeful of maintaining the status quo in New South Wales, considering that Gilmore or Reid might balance a loss in Lindsay (apparently not rating a mention is Banks, which I for one would have thought vulnerable). Beyond New South Wales, Labor “believes it will win at least nine – and probably more – elsewhere”. Ben Packham of The Australian reported on the week end that Labor feels too secure in Victoria to devote resources to any of its own seats, and will target five held by the Coalition with “full field” campaigns: Dunkley, Corangamite, La Trobe, Chisholm and Deakin.

• The Australian reports Nick Xenophon’s Centre Alliance will only field candidates in Mayo, which is held for the party by Rebekha Sharkie, along with Grey and Barker, where they have respectively endorsed Andrea Broadfoot and Kelly Gladigau. The party’s predecessor, the Nick Xenophon Team, polled 21.3% across South Australia in 2016, and finished second in Grey, Barker and Port Adelaide (the latter now abolished).

• Jamie Walker of The Australian notes that Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party, which has endorsed candidates in more seats than any party other than Labor, has nonetheless left open its Queensland Senate ticket and the Townsville-based seat of Herbert. Palmer earlier maintained he would run in Herbert, but few now expect that to happen, given the certainty he would fail there.

• There’s a redistribution in train in the Northern Territory, which Ben Raue at The Tally Room is on top of if you’re interested.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

740 comments on “Phony war communiques”

Comments Page 5 of 15
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  6. KayJay @ #112 Wednesday, April 10th, 2019 – 9:54 am

    psyclaw @ #101 Wednesday, April 10th, 2019 – 9:42 am

    C@t’s real class pops up again …. “And if he wants cutting edge streaming porn to mess up the spa with,”

    And as usual, her beloved and beloving colleagues remain silent as the blog is dragged down to muck level.

    I presume (perhaps too much) that most just scroll on by – or miss entirely such items courtesy of AR’s C+.

    As for me – I remain hopeful of kinder, gentler, informative posts and courteous, humorous (maybe) exchanges.

    Be good to yourself my friend. 😍☮☕

    And speaking of spiteful, twisted nastiness, you can be very mean when you want to be KayJay. Behind your ‘aw shucks!’ facade. Psyclaw singles me out to attack me, again, and you spring to her defense, again, with a spiteful comment about my contributions and a reference to ar’s C+.

    I, too, remain hopeful of kinder, gentler, informative posts and courteous, humorous (maybe) exchanges. But it certainly looks like I’m not going to get it from you or psyclaw. Petty vindictiveness on the other hand…

  7. poroti @ #17 Wednesday, April 10th, 2019 – 7:01 am

    Cud Chewer

    In NZ , as here, Labour proposed FTTH all the way and like here the conservatives went BOOOO ! Hiss and were anti FTTH roll out. Just as it was about to start John Key was elected and ordered an inquiry/study on the kiwi ‘nbn’ to see if it stacked up financially, he was agin the ftth roll out. The result was that he called doing the full ftth a ‘no brainer’ and the need to ‘do it once, do it properly’. The guy was a former member of the NY Reserve Bank board and so a pretty hard core economically, he gave it the two thumbs up for all the sorts of reasons sprocket_ mentioned.

    What a shame instead of a John Key Australia got a tony Abbott 🙁

    FTTH = Fibre To The Hub?

    I don’t think that is what you mean, but it is an ambiguous term and best avoided. Try FTTP – P for Premises which avoids any confusion with ‘Hub / Home’ and is more generic about what is being connected as it applies equally to commercial and residential premises.

  9. Re: media bias

    Either of the major parties complaining about media bias is laughable. Try looking at the right wing controlled mainstream media from a Greens’ perspective and then you’ll know what biased reporting (read propaganda) looks like.

    Yes, the Murdoch press does usually favour the Coalition over Labor. No question about that. But they can also be very quick to defend Labor too when it suits them, even those who are of the Labor Left faction…

    https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/a84b1e87d40e39499e1be927877e0a4b

  11. Bowen at the NPC. I’m always nervous when he speaks because I really don’t think he’s particularly convincing. Plenty competent, but not very convincing.

  15. “Motorists would save $27.5 billion in petrol and diesel costs over two decades in a collective gain from fuel standards the Morrison government has dubbed “Labor’s Car-Bon Tax” on cars.

    Lost fuel tax revenue replaced by mileage tax charged retrospectively & monthly for EVs?
    Otherwise general tax revenue goes up to cover shortfall. Then non vehicle owners subsidise everyone else….. bad

  18. Adrian, Guytaur and anyone from Labor policy listening

    I too agree that farmers could be quite interested in a combination of on farm produced renewable power and EVs. In fact it could be justifiably subsidised for several reasons. Adopting a carrot and stick approach, the current diesel fuel subsidies for farmers and miners should both be phased out. In return farmers should be encouraged to go off-grid with renewables. There is already a very high grid connection cost for farmers in remote locations. Renewable power could save this. Then as you say, the renewable power with a battery could be used to charge an EV.

    In terms of how Labor can implement its EV policy, redeploying and targetting current subsidies for fuel, power and vehicle purchase from fossil fuel/conventional options to renewable/electric options is the first place to start. We already spend billions on those. No net cost to the budget and based on Norwegian experience likely to be highly effective.

    Similarly with transport infrastructure. We spend a fortune on urban highways and airports. Use teh money to build rail (HSR, urban metro or LRT depending on the nature of the task) instead. What if building HSR from Sydney to Canberra and Mebourne eliminated the need for Badgeries Creek? And we can build the trains here too. Australian rolling stock manufacture has been hamstrung by ups and downs of an inconsistent flow of orders. Hence it was not competitively priced. But the quality of Australian made trains has always been good. NZ cheerfully buys second hand Aussie rolling stock that is 30 years old, because it was built to last.

  19. “Being a Green is in fact an impediment to this.
    The concept of a FTTP NBN was brought to us by a Labor Govt.
    Greens are a noisy distraction.”

    Garbage. The Greens have repeatedly stated that they support the original Rudd gov’s version of the NBN. Labor will require the Greens help in the Senate if we are going to repair the damage done by the Coalition.

  21. Sceptic @ #216 Wednesday, April 10th, 2019 – 12:41 pm

    Lost fuel tax revenue replaced by mileage tax charged retrospectively & monthly for EVs?

    No thanks.

    Otherwise general tax revenue goes up to cover shortfall. Then non vehicle owners subsidise everyone else….. bad

    That’s not actually so bad. And there aren’t that many ‘non vehicle owners’ in this country anyways. Though also, not the only alternative.

    Instead just abolish the fuel tax altogether (or rename it a carbon tax), and set the vehicle registration price at a rate that covers whatever road-related things the fuel tax is being used to pay for.

    Then vehicle owners pay for the roads, and non-owners (all five of them) don’t subsidize anything. It’s fair enough for all road users to share the cost of maintaining the roads equally.

  22. Firefox @ #219 Wednesday, April 10th, 2019 – 12:45 pm

    “Being a Green is in fact an impediment to this.
    The concept of a FTTP NBN was brought to us by a Labor Govt.
    Greens are a noisy distraction.”

    Garbage. The Greens have repeatedly stated that they support the original Rudd gov’s version of the NBN. Labor will require the Greens help in the Senate if we are going to repair the damage done by the Coalition.

    I sad to say that Labor will seek the LNPs help to pass legislation before the Greens Party.

    Labor are ideologically closer to the LNP than the Greens.

  27. “I sad to say that Labor will seek the LNPs help to pass legislation before the Greens Party.

    Labor are ideologically closer to the LNP than the Greens.”

    Unfortunately, you are correct, Rex. Labor is closer to the Coalition than they are to the Greens. We do need to give credit where it’s due tho; Labor’s NBN policy is far superior to the Coalition’s. It’s one area where I expect the Greens and Labor will be able to work together constructively to fix the mess the Coalition has made. And Labor will definitely need the Greens to get it done as there’s no chance they’ll have a majority on their own in the Senate.

  28. Instead just abolish the fuel tax altogether (or rename it a carbon tax), and set the vehicle registration price at a rate that covers whatever road-related things the fuel tax is being used to pay for.

    Then the people who don’t drive long distances are subsidizing those who do. At the moment at least the fuel excise collected from each motorist is roughly correlated with the amount they actually use the roads – that principle seems like a good one to maintain.

  29. “I sad to say that Labor will seek the LNPs help to pass legislation before the Greens Party.”

    For those doubting this claim that Rex has made, it is actually factually correct based on the Senate Hansard. Labor do side with the Coalition far more often than the Greens do. The strongest possible way to vote against the Coalition and their agenda is by voting for the Greens.

  30. Shellbell, of course the Green Left Weekly says to vote for the Socialist Alliance. Your note of surprise seems to show that you think it’s an organ of the Greens. It is, and always has been, an organ of the SA and is hawked on the streets by SA members. Where have you been for the last 30 years????

  32. The alternative party of government always votes more frequently with the party of government and third parties have the luxury of always voting exactly how they want.

    Not excusing it (I often disagree when it happens), and I’m not wasting my vote on the Greens, but there’s nothing new on this.

    And I hate that I’ve just been sucked into this place’s most POINTLESS arguments. No one’s mind is being changed here. No one’s.

  33. Jackol @ #228 Wednesday, April 10th, 2019 – 1:02 pm

    Then the people who don’t drive long distances are subsidizing those who do.

    That’s why I said it was “fair enough” instead of strictly “fair”.

    Though also, for the most part there may not really be “people who drive long distances” and “people who don’t” over the long term. Everyone’s driving habits change over time, so today’s “I don’t drive much” can become tomorrow’s “I commute an hour each way becuase of my new job”, and vice-versa. There’s short-term subsidizing, but in the long term it may roughly balance out.

    If you want to stymie EV adoption, telling prospective EV owners that they’d have to file a monthly report on their driving habits and then be invoiced based on how far they drove is a good way to do it.

  34. I imagine that rather at lot of NBN policy changes will be able to be implemented by executive action rather than requiring legislation.

  35. With increasing electric vehicles, there absolutely has to be a mileage tax instead of a fuel tax.

    Increased registration increases the upfront cost and penalises those that do less damage to the infrastructure because they do less driving.

    I also wouldn’t implement it for EV only, it would be all or nothing. In addition, it wouldn’t be by filling in a report, it would be automatic sent and only the distance and not the location of the driving.

  37. Then the people who don’t drive long distances are subsidizing those who do. At the moment at least the fuel excise collected from each motorist is roughly correlated with the amount they actually use the roads – that principle seems like a good one to maintain.

    True, but at least it’s a progressive subsidy (those not driving long distances tend to be those who can afford to live in the very pricey inner suburbs).

  38. Firefox – Of course the Greens vote against govt legislation more often than labor. They have the luxury of registering protest votes all the time and don’t have to sully their consciences with compromises. Labor doesn’t. It has to act like a responsible opposition and keep the wheels of govt turning over. Meanwhile, the Greens stand around like virgins at an orgy crying “shame, shame”

  39. Interesting to see polling putting the Nats behind in Page, but no mention of Cowper, which the Nats held by a only slightly larger margin last time.

    TCP for Nats over Oakeshott was only 54.6%, and Oakeshott is running again. Lots of factors suggest it could go this time around:
    * NSW swing of around 3-4%
    * Nat incumbent Luke Hartsuyker retiring after 18 years
    * New Nat candidate Pat Conaghan seems lazy, uninformed and invisible (may not be a huge negative as so was Hartsuyker)
    * Best ALP candidate this century (a low bar, but easily jumped by Andrew Woodward) might get bigger vote and send more preferences Oakeshott’s way.
    * Oakeshott running full campaign, as opposed to 2016’s last minute effort

    It’s certainly not the >99% chance for the Nats that William has in in BludgerTrack by considering only the Nats TCP over Labor.

    Haven’t seen any seat polling for Cowper released, but I got robopolled about a fortnight ago.

  41. In terms of replacing the revenue from fuel taxes lost in a shift to EV’s??

    Really, its just not an issue at the moment and will be something that has to be looked at down the track as and when it may or may not become an issue in a future budget.

    Anything anyone says on it now is meaningless as any issue with that is so far in the future and several budgets away.

    This one should knock the Libs EV position right on the head. 🙂

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-s-vehicle-carbon-target-would-save-motorists-27-5-billion-20190410-p51coz.html

    Combine with this on the chances of an real surplus in the out years of the budget:

    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/imf-and-ratings-agencies-warn-of-more-financial-pain-for-australian-economy-20190409-p51cdh.html

    Combine with Bowen doing a competent presentation at the NPC, and as i am watching taking questions well.

    And it is really not a good news day for the Morrison Muppets. 🙂

  42. I’m no economic expert, but I can say that Bowen sounds like he knows what he’s talking about.

    His intelligence and knowledge in depth, plus the irresistible impression that he has considered most of the questions and objections being brought up in the course of policy formation (and knows the answers and rebuttals) are manifest.

    And no slogans thus far!

  43. Increased registration increases the upfront cost and penalises those that do less damage to the infrastructure because they do less driving.

    I think the evidence is that personal vehicles do bugger-all damage to the infrastructure regardless of how far they’re driven, the wear-and-tear on the roads is pretty much entirely down to commercial vehicles.

    That said maybe you could just implement the distance-based taxation for commercial vehicles, at least businesses are well-placed to report on how far their vehicles have travelled and there the resulting economic pressure to optimise the distances they travel might actually have real world results.

  44. KJ @ #235 Wednesday, April 10th, 2019 – 1:10 pm

    Increased registration increases the upfront cost and penalises those that do less damage to the infrastructure because they do less driving.

    Oh well. If you want to drive, pay up front for the privilege and in the same amount that everybody else does. Then drive as much or as little as you prefer.

    Works fine for other things, like Medicare. I certainly haven’t been rewarded with a reduced Medicare levy for only going to the doctor once a year and never visiting the hospital. Or should everyone who’s relatively young and relatively healthy take up arms over being hit with a “penalty” for being in good health?

  45. C@tmomma @ #206 Wednesday, April 10th, 2019 – 12:34 pm

    KayJay @ #112 Wednesday, April 10th, 2019 – 9:54 am

    psyclaw @ #101 Wednesday, April 10th, 2019 – 9:42 am

    C@t’s real class pops up again …. “And if he wants cutting edge streaming porn to mess up the spa with,”

    And as usual, her beloved and beloving colleagues remain silent as the blog is dragged down to muck level.

    I presume (perhaps too much) that most just scroll on by – or miss entirely such items courtesy of AR’s C+.

    As for me – I remain hopeful of kinder, gentler, informative posts and courteous, humorous (maybe) exchanges.

    Be good to yourself my friend. 😍☮☕

    And speaking of spiteful, twisted nastiness, you can be very mean when you want to be KayJay. Behind your ‘aw shucks!’ facade. Psyclaw singles me out to attack me, again, and you spring to her defense, again, with a spiteful comment about my contributions and a reference to ar’s C+.

    I, too, remain hopeful of kinder, gentler, informative posts and courteous, humorous (maybe) exchanges. But it certainly looks like I’m not going to get it from you or psyclaw. Petty vindictiveness on the other hand…

    I think you may have misinterpreted my post.

    I think I was saying to Psyclaw that many (most) would have have ignored (blocked) the items in question. I wasn’t aware that I was either attacking or defending anybody.

    You are right I can be very mean but I try really hard not to be so. I was not being mean to you or to Psyclaw but simply pointing out why I and others may not have made comments about the subject matter. I am not out to get you or anybody at all. I wish you well.

    The comment about scrolling by and C+ was a general one. I will not note who I have blocked but I will say that I had to search to find what Psyclaw was talking about. Mostly when these type of contretemps occur I remain silent.

    Note to myself. Pull your head in.
    ☮

  46. antonbruckner11 @ #238 Wednesday, April 10th, 2019 – 1:15 pm

    Firefox – Of course the Greens vote against govt legislation more often than labor. They have the luxury of registering protest votes all the time and don’t have to sully their consciences with compromises. Labor doesn’t. It has to act like a responsible opposition and keep the wheels of govt turning over. Meanwhile, the Greens stand around like virgins at an orgy crying “shame, shame”

    A ‘responsible opposition’ doesn’t fall in behind terrible policy out of fear of a politically difficult policy debate.

  47. As various posters have pointed out, there is a looming need to reform road user charges in Australia as fuel excises lose their effect(Howard already nobbled them when he ended indexation). Various groups will cry “poor” or “unfair” when this is done. Even charges like developer contributions for infrastructure (legalsince a HC case in the 80s) are done inconsistently between States.

    Labor should commit to reforming the charges after a review process. Then any new system will be introduced on a user pays system, but in a revenue neutral way. This avoids arguments about gouging or inequity.

  48. “I’m no economic expert, but I can say that Bowen sounds like he knows what he’s talking about. ”

    I’m no real fan of Bowen, and really dont think he will be PM material. Although he seems to have those ambitions. Fair Nuff.

    But, i think he will be a good treasurer and i’m glad he on our side.

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