In an off week in the fortnightly cycle of Newspoll and Essential Research, and no Ipsos poll overnight in Nine Newspapers, it looks like poll junkies will have to make do with New South Wales this week. We do have a poll of Senate voting intention from The Australia Institute, encompassing by Dynata from 2019 voters through February and March, which has Labor on 33%, the Coalition on 28%, the Greens on 12% and One Nation on 8%, from which a post-election outcome is projected of 30 to 32 seats for the Coalition, 28 to 29 seats for Labor, eight to nine seats for the Greens, four to five seats for the One Nation, two to three for the Centre Alliance, one for Australian Conservatives, and possibly one for Derryn Hinch, Jacqui Lambie or Tasmanian independent Craig Garland. The poll was the subject of a paywalled report in the Financial Review, and a full report featuring detailed breakdowns will shortly be available on The Australia Institute’s website.
Other than that, some recent preselection developments to relate:
• Last week’s Liberal preselection to choose a successor to Julie Bishop in Curtin was won by Celia Hammond, former University of Notre Dame vice-chancellor, who secured victory in the first round with 51 votes out of 82. The only other competitive contender was Anna Dartnell, an executive for resources company Aurizon, who received 28 votes. Erin Watson-Lynn, who was said to have been favoured by Bishop, received only one vote, after receiving substantial unhelpful publicity for past social media comments critical of the Liberal Party. It has been widely suggested that Hammond’s socially conservative views make her an ill fit for the electorate, which recorded a 72% yes vote in the same-sex marriage referendum – hoping to take advantage of the situation is Louise Stewart, who established a chain of health care clinics, and identifies as a moderate and “independent Liberal”.
• Andrew Potts of the Gold Coast Bulletin reports eight candidates have nominated for the preselection to succeed Steve Ciobo as the Liberal National Party candidate in Moncrieff, which is expected to be held in a few weeks. Gold Coast councillor Cameron Caldwell is reckoned to be the frontrunner, with other candidates including Karly Abbott, a staffer to Ciobo, and Fran Ward, a “local businesswoman”.
• Labor has preselected Cressida O’Hanlon, a family dispute resolution practitioner, as its candidate for the Adelaide seat of Sturt, which will be vacated with the retirement of Christopher Pyne. The Liberal preselection will be held on Saturday – the presumed front-runner, James Stevens, is backed by Pyne and other factional moderates, and faces opposition from two conservatives, Joanna Andrew and Deepa Mathew.
• The Country Liberal Party in the Northern Territory has preselected Sam McMahon, a Katherine-based veterinarian, out of a field of 12 to succeed the retiring Nigel Scullion as its Senate candidate.
‘He’s unfit for office’: McCain’s top adviser hopes ‘latest evidence’ convinces Republicans to stop defending Trump
The closest advisor to former Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) told The New York Times that President Donald Trump is “unfit” for office.
Mark Salter, McCain’s longtime confidante and alter ego, made the comments after Trump again lashed out at McCain.
The commander-in-chief attacked the deceased Republican senator on Saturday, Sunday, Tuesday and Wednesday.
“The problem isn’t Trump’s disrespect to John and his family, it’s Trump,” Salter told The Times. “He’s unfit for the office, and most members of Congress know he is.”
“I hope this latest evidence of that convinces more people that he can’t be ignored,” Salter added.
https://www.rawstory.com/2019/03/hes-unfit-office-mccains-top-adviser-hopes-latest-evidence-convinces-republicans-stop-defending-trump/
Don’t knock the Ch 7 coverage of the election.
It could yet be the most fun to watch when they all turn on each other!!!
May should resign and call a general election
PhoenixRed
Remember McCain was given the Steele Dossier way back when. Thereafter given to the FBI. Trump is doing what he does best. Malign and shoot the messenger
lizzie @ #2251 Thursday, March 21st, 2019 – 10:40 am
The above picture substituted in the interests of mental health.
Although – I have always like the sound of Ms. Cherry Kickerarsky (just the name). 😎
On Brexit i suspect they are past the point where they are getting anything other than no-deal crash out.
Seems to me there is just no reason for the EU to grant an extension as they have no path ahead laid out for anything different than no-deal. In that case the EU’s interests are best served by ending the uncertainty.
Interesting to see the comments on a couple of other RWNJ sites. They are salivation for a no-deal and the delays are all an anti democratic conspiracy and there will be blood on the streets…….
Idiots.
“May should resign and call a general election”
That wont stop a no-deal crash out on the 29th. 🙁
Victoria says: Thursday, March 21, 2019 at 10:49 am
PhoenixRed
Remember McCain was given the Steele Dossier way back when. Thereafter given to the FBI. Trump is doing what he does best. Malign and shoot the messenger
********************************************************************
What is it going to take for one/more of those spineless GOP bastards to tell Trump, sir, but you really need to stop dissing the late senator. You demean your office and the country in which Sen. McCain served. Cut it out.”
…… same with the George Conway abuse – how his wife continues to work for the WH is beyond comprehension ( – unless she is wearing a wire )
PhoenixRed
The GOP are waiting for something or someone else to do the dirty work of getting Trump to exit stage left
imacca @ #2257 Thursday, March 21st, 2019 – 9:56 am
Okay, then May should request a longer extension (like 1-2 years, minimum), predicated on calling a new election that might result in either a change in government or a new referendum. And then she should resign. 🙂
If the ALP wins gov’t in NSW, they should tell the Board to fix their stadiumw, and let them scramble around for the money. There needs to be consequences for breaching the caretaker provisions and that includes the recipients of these contracts and promises. The government could always lend them the money, no grants.
Victoria says: Thursday, March 21, 2019 at 11:00 am
PhoenixRed
The GOP are waiting for something or someone else to do the dirty work of getting Trump to exit stage left
********************************************
Maybe, just maybe ….. he has some inkling of what political/criminal disasters are soon going to fall upon the whole Trump Crime Family …… and this posting mania is frustration ….
phoenixRed, Vic:
Did you see the footage of Trump dissing McCain was met with total silence at that media announcement? So funny.
That was an interesting read, Pegasus. Thanks.
I guess the short answer is: who knows?
It doesn’t matter what Trump says or does or who he maligns or abuses with his contemptible behaviour to American heroes like the dead John McCain, he still sits with a slowly improving approval rating now at 41 per cent.
He has a fully staffed and funded and sophisticated reelection machine in place which is already hard at work.
The reality is that Trump has a better than even money chance of being re-elected. No collusion, fake news, Muller a Democrat disgrace. I’m fixing Obama’s economy and will build a wall.
The Dems will be fighting amongst themselves for the next 15 months, until they have a nominee.
Trump is not done.
Are we going to have the PB NSW Ch 7 coverage drinking Bingo Card game?
I am going to suggest the “Gaining Traction in Orange” when referring to Nats trying to unseat the SFFs in Orange as one of the squares.
Latham gives a bone crushing handshake to Barnaby.
RatesAnalyst
They’ve been saying two things since late last year. WTTE “The deal is done. It’s up to you now.” That there is goodwill left in the EU to give the UK time to implement the deal says much about the spirit of the EU (and their support of Ireland). That the UK seem unable to grasp this says much about their lack of leadership.
If anyone wants to update their Brexit guess, let me know.
In your opinion, on or before 2019 March 30, Britain will decide for one of the following:
50% (a) Hard Brexit – No Deal
4% (b) Soft Brexit – Deal
17% (c) Brexit Extension – Negotiations Continue
13% (d) Brexit Extension – New Referendum
4% (e) Withdrawn Brexit
6% (f) Something else
7% (g) Don’t care
No. Of PB Respondents: 45
https://www.pollbludger.net/2019/03/16/brexit-minus-two-weeks-perhaps/
Less than 9 days to go.
PuffyTMD says:
Thursday, March 21, 2019 at 11:02 am
“If the ALP wins gov’t in NSW, they should tell the Board to fix their stadium, and let them scramble around for the money. There needs to be consequences for breaching the caretaker provisions and that includes the recipients of these contracts and promises. The government could always lend them the money, no grants.”
A loan would never be repaid, and eventually written off by some future LNP govt
Even going guarantor, the state would end up with the bill.
The only way is for the stadium to be left half demolished for a year, then, if the board can’t come up with the funds, knock it down and turn it into a grassed field.
Only the stadium users (players and fans) will care.
The trustees (Jones et al) will not care. They will have moved onto some other lurk long ago.
Al Pal says: Thursday, March 21, 2019 at 11:17 am
It doesn’t matter what Trump says or does or who he maligns or abuses with his contemptible behaviour to American heroes like the dead John McCain, he still sits with a slowly improving approval rating now at 41 per cent.
**********************************************************
After Tuesday nights program on opiods in the US and Louis Theroux in Milwaukee it makes me wonder what sort of shape the US is in …..
Today columnist Max Boot wrote similarly in the Washington Post :
Two years of Trump have shaken my faith in America
I have always been a cockeyed optimist about America. That’s because, in part, of my own family story: We came here in 1976 as penniless refugees from the Soviet Union and found a land of freedom and opportunity. It’s also because of my reading of history, which led me to conclude that, for all of its undoubted problems, the United States has been the greatest force for good in the world over the past century.
But my faith in America has been badly shaken by more than two years of Trumpism. I now fear that the United States’ days as a superpower may be numbered, especially if President Trump wins a second term — as well he might.
We may still see a snapback to a normal U.S. foreign policy after Trump is gone — but I wouldn’t count on it. This may be, gulp, the new normal. And that’s bad news for the world, because if America doesn’t underwrite global security, no one else will. The likely result will be a new global disorder where everyone pursues a “me first” policy and no one looks out for the common good.
MORE : https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/americas-days-as-a-superpower-may-be-numbered–because-of-trump/2019/03/20/ae15c924-4a82-11e9-93d0-64dbcf38ba41_story.html?utm_term=.1c63a2b9c448
PhoenixRed
Trump is crazy like a fox. He knows exactly what he is doing and saying. It probably doesn’t help that he takes stuff that make him appear more cray cray. He doesn’t have dementia. He is a malignant narcissist and this is part of his spiel.
He wants the mental illness card to be played for him when the time comes. He figured it will stop him going to jail.
I would oblige him. He gets put in isolation at a mental facility where he has to stay. Works for me.
NSW is now at 1.58/2.40 Lib/Lab. Seems to imply Daley has screwed it up. Or that the Lib’s/media’s tactic of sitting on evidence of mild racism for months and then dropping it in the final week of the campaign as if they’re legitimately surprised and outraged over it has been successful.
At least Federal Labor is still at 1.16/4.00.
Late Riser
I am still going with “e” and “f” at this stage
Victoria @ #2270 Thursday, March 21st, 2019 – 10:32 am
One where they still believe in ECT. Because karma.
a r
Yeah that works for me too
#WeatheronPB. Much of Sydney is ‘enjoying’ its 10th consecutive day with rainfall. As it says in Handel’s Allellulia Chorus, “It shall rain for ever and ever”. March is often like that here.
Very confident (C) extension.
No way will there be a hard brexit.
Trump seems to play politics as if it were fiction. He is forever re-writing the story; a story in which there are both good and evil; in which, just like daytime tv, characters can come and go from one episode to the next, without disrupting the narrative rhythm. The forces involved in the story all revolve around the central figure, the POTUS as hero/antihero. Maybe to most voters, politics is all fiction. It is all just acting-out; all theatre, all movie-making. It’s quite surreal.
Victoria says: Thursday, March 21, 2019 at 11:32 am
PhoenixRed
Trump is crazy like a fox. He knows exactly what he is doing and saying.
****************************************
Agreed Victoria – and like AlPal says – Trump is not speaking to you and I – his talks are dogwhistles to his redneck white supremacist base – and in that he is the master
There is a great article by respected Salon writer Lucian Truscott on the very point of his inflammatory speech
Donald Trump is running for president as a flat-out racist
He is gambling his political future on the premise that there are enough bigots like him. We’ll find out
We are about to learn something important about this country. Donald Trump is running for re-election as a flat-out racist and bigot, and we are going to discover who we are as a nation by how many of our fellow citizens vote for him in 2020. Whether Trump wins or not, I’m afraid it’s going to be a bitter, nasty lesson.
At this point, Trump has done everything but specifically endorse white supremacy. Following the deadly terrorist attack on two mosques in Christchurch, New Zealand, which killed 50 Muslim immigrants, Trump refused to denounce white supremacy and denied that there has been a rise in white supremacist violent attacks in recent years. The killer in New Zealand approvingly mentioned Trump in the manifesto he published shortly before his murder spree.
Trump didn’t have to do the New Zealand killer the favor of mentioning him by name in return. His base knows where he stands. He calls them “my people” in private conversations with aides in the White House. The question that will be answered over the next 19 months of this presidential election season will be how many there are of them, and how many there are of us.
MORE : https://www.salon.com/2019/03/20/donald-trump-is-running-for-president-as-a-flat-out-racist/
Maude Lynne
Allianze Stadium.
A few facts you might consider …
The stadium was a Bicentennial gift from UK tax payers.
During the design process some changes in the brief were required to meet the budget,eg reducing the roof overhang, reducinging cover over patrons.
The basic structure & design are sound.
There is a requirement for a medium sized close to playing pitch stadium near the city centre ( next closest one is Parramatta! )
It could cost more to demolish than refurbish.
PhoenixRed
I am confident that Trumps day of reckoning will come
Just saw the fake news about dingo meat being exported to China. More xenophobia and a poorer Australia because some believe it.
Yes dog meat is consumed in China (as it is in many places in East Asia including Korea). However it is very difficult to (officially) get meat products into China. Australian Beef and Sheep are allowed as long as it is processed at Chinese certified meat works. Other products eg Chicken are not allowed. I have for instance attempted to send Chicken feet from Australia to China – this is banned. I have also attempted to land game meat such as kangaroo and camel. Again no way.
You have to give it to the xenophobes – when the housing and jobs story being taken by foreigners doesn’t stack up they move to dingo’s.
Victoria says: Thursday, March 21, 2019 at 11:46 am
PhoenixRed
I am confident that Trumps day of reckoning will come
****************************************************
……… the question is – at what cost for the US …… and as a consequence the rest of us …. ??????
Re Trump, I am pretty sure that the world is stuck with him for another 22 months, with the US Presidential election 20 months away. In any case, I am not convinced that President Pence would be an improvement. Pence actually believes his bullshit.
My hope is that Trump will declare victory and not run for a second term. What happens to him afterwards, well, it would be good to see him get some comeuppance.
PhoenixRed
Yes that is what annoys me the most. Wish they would get it sorted already!
Diogenes says:
Thursday, March 21, 2019 at 11:41 am
I agree on a hard brexit, but I think for an extension it would require a new definitive referendum to be held.
Two options, leave under the negotiated deal, or remain.
I don’t see any other way past the current impasse. 🙂
Thanks Sceptic. I was unaware of the background.
If anything , it makes the vandalism of the board and the Gov’t worse.
Tearing down a relatively new gift for specious reasons is disgraceful.
“Two options, leave under the negotiated deal, or remain.”
If they were rational they would have another referendum. That may mean the EU ould have a reason to grant an extension.
And at that referendum the q should be:
Two options, leave under the negotiated deal, or remain.
KayJay 1052am
I was trying to do a 1-1 mapping of the Channel 7 election team to the Warner Brothers ‘universe’.
But it was just too harsh on those cartoon characters, even the Tasmanian Devil.
Bugs and Daffy hosting the coverage would be far preferable, crossing regularly to Taz at the Liberal Party function.
There would be certain to be more intelligent, insightful, and funny commentary with Bugs and his pals in charge!
lizzie @ #2251 Thursday, March 21st, 2019 – 10:40 am
Well worth watching if Labor win.
autocrat @ #2291 Thursday, March 21st, 2019 – 12:13 pm
Even better if Latham and/or Constance don’t get up!
Barney in Vinh Long @ #2287 Thursday, March 21st, 2019 – 10:57 am
Barney, I’ve recorded your opinion in the column for (a) Hard Brexit. I think you’re saying that for a referendum to be sensible it would need the two choices to be either May’s Deal or No Brexit. I agree with that. I have a calculation running, see the Brexit thread, that gives the current eventual outcome (not the status on March 30) as: Remain 10% chance, and May’s Deal 45%, and Hard Brexit 45%.
Don’t Labor voters watch 7? I know I don’t.
What a reptile pit.
@Shane Wright twitter:
“Last 6 months trend full time employment growth – 28.9k, 25.5k, 21.2k, 17.2k, 14.7k and now 12.3k. That’s a trend.”
Can’t get into this or outline it (The Australian) – but good on her
Bishop lines up to kick trolls
11:47amREMY VARGA, RICHARD FERGUSON
Bronwyn Bishop has reprised kicking skills honed long ago to take a shot at online trolls and support AFLW player Tayla Harris.
Journalists regularly cross examine Labor about Adani. Get the same answer every time – comply with the rules and it gets the go ahead. No funding support.
They don’t seem to question the L/NP about coal mining but if they did what would they hear? Approve every project and waive any requirements that can’t be met. Accept any figure provided by said mining company regarding employee numbers, coal tonnage, export dollars and tax that will be paid.
If still any problems, give them money, build them a railway and throw in a port.
Best not question them in depth, look over there, look over there………
Late Riser,
I wasn’t making a prediction, but I definitely don’t think it will be a hard brexit. 🙂
Late Riser
I will have a hard brexit crash out disaster bet thanks.
Barney in Vinh Long @ #2298 Thursday, March 21st, 2019 – 11:35 am
OK. Thanks for clarifying. 🙂