Federal election minus two months

No new federal poll, but preselection latest from Curtin, Moncrieff and Sturt in the House, and the Northern Territory in the Senate.

In an off week in the fortnightly cycle of Newspoll and Essential Research, and no Ipsos poll overnight in Nine Newspapers, it looks like poll junkies will have to make do with New South Wales this week. We do have a poll of Senate voting intention from The Australia Institute, encompassing by Dynata from 2019 voters through February and March, which has Labor on 33%, the Coalition on 28%, the Greens on 12% and One Nation on 8%, from which a post-election outcome is projected of 30 to 32 seats for the Coalition, 28 to 29 seats for Labor, eight to nine seats for the Greens, four to five seats for the One Nation, two to three for the Centre Alliance, one for Australian Conservatives, and possibly one for Derryn Hinch, Jacqui Lambie or Tasmanian independent Craig Garland. The poll was the subject of a paywalled report in the Financial Review, and a full report featuring detailed breakdowns will shortly be available on The Australia Institute’s website.

Other than that, some recent preselection developments to relate:

• Last week’s Liberal preselection to choose a successor to Julie Bishop in Curtin was won by Celia Hammond, former University of Notre Dame vice-chancellor, who secured victory in the first round with 51 votes out of 82. The only other competitive contender was Anna Dartnell, an executive for resources company Aurizon, who received 28 votes. Erin Watson-Lynn, who was said to have been favoured by Bishop, received only one vote, after receiving substantial unhelpful publicity for past social media comments critical of the Liberal Party. It has been widely suggested that Hammond’s socially conservative views make her an ill fit for the electorate, which recorded a 72% yes vote in the same-sex marriage referendum – hoping to take advantage of the situation is Louise Stewart, who established a chain of health care clinics, and identifies as a moderate and “independent Liberal”.

• Andrew Potts of the Gold Coast Bulletin reports eight candidates have nominated for the preselection to succeed Steve Ciobo as the Liberal National Party candidate in Moncrieff, which is expected to be held in a few weeks. Gold Coast councillor Cameron Caldwell is reckoned to be the frontrunner, with other candidates including Karly Abbott, a staffer to Ciobo, and Fran Ward, a “local businesswoman”.

• Labor has preselected Cressida O’Hanlon, a family dispute resolution practitioner, as its candidate for the Adelaide seat of Sturt, which will be vacated with the retirement of Christopher Pyne. The Liberal preselection will be held on Saturday – the presumed front-runner, James Stevens, is backed by Pyne and other factional moderates, and faces opposition from two conservatives, Joanna Andrew and Deepa Mathew.

• The Country Liberal Party in the Northern Territory has preselected Sam McMahon, a Katherine-based veterinarian, out of a field of 12 to succeed the retiring Nigel Scullion as its Senate candidate.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,745 comments on “Federal election minus two months”

Comments Page 45 of 55
1 … 44 45 46 … 55

  1. Great rejoicing chez KayJay.

    Today is Harmony Day and 🎺🎺 Autumn Equinox.

    In pagan mythology, the equinox is called Mabon, or Second Harvest. It is a time to give thanks for the summer and to pay tribute to the coming darkness. It is also a time of preparing for Samhain (October 31–November 1), the bigger pagan festival that begins winter.

    How should we interpret this in terms of a welcome to darkness. Simply playing dress up at Williams Mid Year Frolic, Elvis and Marilyn impersonators Gala won’t fit the bill.

    No ❗ Nudism with high kicks from the (so called) gentlemen and Twenties styles for the ladies.

    The elections should be over and depending on hopes, wishes and regrets – various attitudes will be on display. A continuous loop of Mr. Turnbull’s address to the faithfull celebrating his one seat victory in 2016 will be featured.

    Send cash for your guaranteed reserved slot at this magnificent celebratory spectacle. Estimated date of Galah – 21 June.

    I think I’ve gotten a little lost with this load of old ………………
    Time for fresh coffee and a reset while I look through

    BK’s as always – excellent Dawn Patrol.

    ☕

    P.S. Coulda been worse
    Could have been
    Turkey threatens our Anzac bond
    Pm
    SIMON BENSON, BEN PACKHAM
    C/- The Australian
    or – Gawn help us
    Terrorism must fail this time
    Greg Sheridan
    C/- The Australian

    Au revoir.

  2. Lizzie – there are various clues indicating the email about dog meat is fake. Primarily, a check of the WA Parliament website indicates there are no current or recently enacted Bills for the amendment of the Biodiversity Conservation Act. Section 4 of that Act (as currently enacted) does none of the things the email suggests it does – it merely states the (very worthy) conservation purposes of the Act. See http://www.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/wa/consol_act/bca2016309/s4.html

  3. I must be reading the Zanetti cartoon wrong then – I though it was having a dig at facebook, not morrisson – as in facebook shirking their social responsibility by cynically dismissing any calls for it to be regulated as hate speech…

  4. lizzie @ #2194 Thursday, March 21st, 2019 – 8:48 am

    Dovey

    They seem to be treating it as Wild Dog Control. Melissa Price seems to have received communications about it, but she’s useless. I saw something recently about dingoes being a separate breed. Perhaps Boerwar could help?

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-07/dingoes-fair-dinkum-seperate-species-according-to-researchers/10878600

    Dingoes are a ‘fair dinkum’ separate species needing better protection, researchers say

    By Matt Coleman and Gary-Jon Lysaght

    Looks to be very interesting. The dingoes are handsome animals.

  5. I’m also calling fake news on the dingo thing. I recall several years ago someone proposed exporting dingoes to China, but was quickly howled down and they abandoned their stance.

    Perhaps the tweet lizzie has posted is an old one.

  6. Nick Ross
    ‏
    @NickRossTech

    If everything @theprojecttv just said was true (and it seems well founded), why didn’t @abcnews call @ScottMorrisonMP for lying instead of just giving him a platform to slam a journalist? That’s propaganda spreading & false journalism. Again. @lenoretaylor #TheProjectTV #auspol

  7. Former Liberal premier Colin Barnett has warned the Federal Coalition of the dangers of doing deals with One Nation as Labor ramps up calls for Prime Minister Scott Morrison to rule out a preference deal with Pauline Hanson.

    Mr Barnett, whose 2017 State election campaign derailed after his Federal colleagues did a preference deal with One Nation, urged the Liberals to keep their distance from Ms Hanson’s party.

    “Given the experience of the State election there should be no deal with One Nation,” Mr Barnett told The West Australian.

    Mr Barnett was left trying to explain throughout the campaign that he disagreed with many One Nation policies.

    https://thewest.com.au/politics/federal-politics/colin-barnett-warns-against-liberal-preference-deal-with-hanson-ng-b881140566z

  8. Confessions. The document Lizzie refers to purports to be current ie, referring to a conversation on 15/3/19. It has other clues indicating its a fake – in a legislative context, provisions of an Act are “sections”; a Bill has “clauses”, but these become sections once the Bill is enacted. A section of an enacted law is never referred to as a “clause”; however, it is common for the “clause” terminology to be used in nonstatutory documents eg commercial contracts

  11. I haven’t followed this debate on PB well, but on twitter I’ve been appalled at the laziness and shallowness of the ‘analysis’ particularly from a couple of Labor MP’s who are happy to post their crap but then will only interact with blue ticks, so out of touch and arrogant they might as well be libs, wouldn’t want to name any names but go to the bottom of the class Tim Watts.

    So there are three levels of issue with hate speech.

    1. Inciting or actually supporting terrorism. We’ve given up a lot of civil rights, there is a lot of new super powerful law, and massive overreach sentences, it has just only applied to hunt Muslims, not to protect them. ie it is an enforcement issue not a lack of laws issue

    2. Just grumpy angry shitposting. Most of this should be just political free speech, where the price you pay is noone listens to you. Obviously in Australia you are probably running afoul of our out of control defo laws and your employer can almost certainly sack you under our zero protection for employees against employer overreach laws.

    3. There is a category of hate speech, that may or may not be unlawful, that more often than not will not be prosecuted, and by all means tighten up the law, but make it platform agnostic. Fraser Anning engaging in hate speech in a meeting is just as bad as facist1234 engaging in it on facebook or twitter, go them both.

    I’ve very wary of the Murdoch business model protection attacks on social media, and the vague and idiotic ‘lets calm hate speech but only on social media’ stuff Tim Watts seems fond of.

  12. Chinda63 @ #2181 Thursday, March 21st, 2019 – 8:09 am

    That Zanetti cartoon was accidentally shared by the “Bill Shorten Will Never Be PM” Facebook page – and subsequently shared by a number of their stupid followers – because they assumed it was having a go at Shorten!

    When I pointed out to my appalling racist, right-wing friend that it was Morrison in the cartoon, he immediately deleted it from his timeline.

    —

    Too funny

  14. Outsider

    If it’s fake, someone has gone to a lot of trouble, but of course that’s how the best scams succeed.

    Fess

    These are not old tweets,they are current.

  15. Outsider:

    I cannot comment on the technicalities, but if such legislation was before the WA parliament you’d think the media would be reporting on it, esp after the outrage that circulated the proposal some years before.

  16. Confessions @ #2207 Thursday, March 21st, 2019 – 9:11 am

    Former Liberal premier Colin Barnett has warned the Federal Coalition of the dangers of doing deals with One Nation as Labor ramps up calls for Prime Minister Scott Morrison to rule out a preference deal with Pauline Hanson.

    Mr Barnett, whose 2017 State election campaign derailed after his Federal colleagues did a preference deal with One Nation, urged the Liberals to keep their distance from Ms Hanson’s party.

    “Given the experience of the State election there should be no deal with One Nation,” Mr Barnett told The West Australian.

    Mr Barnett was left trying to explain throughout the campaign that he disagreed with many One Nation policies.

    https://thewest.com.au/politics/federal-politics/colin-barnett-warns-against-liberal-preference-deal-with-hanson-ng-b881140566z

    —

    I understand Barnett was toasted long before the One Nation preference deal – the PV dropped like a stone and that was the end of it.

    Still the internal cock fight between the QLD LNP members v the eastern States run from her as fast as you can meme will be interesting like the LNP pro coal v Victorian/NSW anti-coal stands. Scomo has way too many fires to put out internally – reap what you sew buddy.

  18. WA Greens propose changes to Western Australian electoral laws:

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-21/greens-propose-changes-to-western-australian-electoral-system/10921812

    The way politicians are elected to the West Australian Parliament could change dramatically under a range of proposals being floated amid claims the state’s electoral system is lacking in fairness and integrity.
    :::
    This week Greens MP Alison Xamon will introduce legislation to remove “group voting tickets”
    :::
    “We need to ensure we have brought back integrity to the way preferences work within our democratic system,” Ms Xamon said.

    “It is unacceptable and it is an indictment on our democratic system.”
    :::
    A group of 12 experts from all of WA’s universities recently wrote a joint letter to every WA MP, calling for a range of changes — including the group voting ticket issue Ms Xamon is trying to address.

    Most critically, they also called for a total change to the way WA’s Upper House is set up.
    :::
    The change could not pass in WA without Labor’s support.

  19. “I understand Barnett was toasted long before the One Nation preference deal – the PV dropped like a stone and that was the end of it.”

    Based on my vague impressions from my unrecorded sample of 100s all picked by the Labor election app, the LNP – One Nation deal hurt not the LNP but One Nation, the LNP was the more damaged brand in the ‘grumpy voter’ camp, and there was a lot of ‘was going to vote one nation but now they are supporting Barnett I may have to consider you bastards’.

  20. EB:

    And despite the preference deal with the Libs, PHON didn’t do anywhere near as well as expectations at the election.

    A landslide win to Labor.

  21. Pegasus @ #2218 Thursday, March 21st, 2019 – 9:32 am

    WA Greens propose changes to Western Australian electoral laws:

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-21/greens-propose-changes-to-western-australian-electoral-system/10921812

    The way politicians are elected to the West Australian Parliament could change dramatically under a range of proposals being floated amid claims the state’s electoral system is lacking in fairness and integrity.
    :::
    This week Greens MP Alison Xamon will introduce legislation to remove “group voting tickets”
    :::
    “We need to ensure we have brought back integrity to the way preferences work within our democratic system,” Ms Xamon said. Most critically, they also called for a total change to the way WA’s Upper House is set up.
    :::
    The change could not pass in WA without Labor’s support.

    —

    It would be an own goal for Labor. Computer says no. How about the Greens winning seats on policy instead of prophesy ?

  22. Opposition Leader Michael Daley blamed Wednesday night’s televised stumbles over his signature election policies on the “pressure of debate”.

    If the kitchen is too hot … get out.
    Daley should take a cruise.. now.. before he does irreparable damage.
    Shambolic!

  23. Six facts that tell a different immigration story than we hear from politicians:

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-21/australian-immigration-what-do-the-numbers-tell-us/10919970

    Immigration is once again a hot political topic, with the NSW and Federal elections imminent.

    It has again been linked to population pressures and congestion in Sydney and Melbourne and the perennial strong borders mantra that has dominated federal politics since the 2001 election.
    :::
    Over the past two decades or so temporary immigrants — international students, working holiday makers and temporary skilled migrants — have increasingly outnumbered permanent immigrants with an increase in temporary migrants from around 700,000 in 2013-4 to more than 800,000 by June 2018.

    Today temporary immigrants outnumber permanent immigrants more than three-fold.

    This dramatic switch in Australian immigration policy has been largely undebated as the oxygen of public and political immigration discourses has been exhausted by the boat people issue, numerically a tiny component of Australia’s recent immigration history.

    Moreover increasing evidence of widespread exploitation of temporary migrant workers, including wage theft with estimates that up to 50 per cent of temporary migrant workers may be underpaid in their employment suggests the government has dropped the ball on the largest component of current Australian immigration.

  24. I have a question: are migrant workers included in job statistics?

    For example, if an employer puts on 3 new people, but they are foreign workers on 457 Visas, are they still counted as “jobs created” and does this impact on the accuracy, or otherwise, of the unemployment figures?

  25. Expanding gas mining threatens our climate, water and health:

    https://theconversation.com/expanding-gas-mining-threatens-our-climate-water-and-health-113047

    Yes, burning gas emits less carbon dioxide than burning coal. Yet the “fugitive emissions” – the methane that escapes, often unmeasured, during production, distribution and combustion of gas – is a much more potent short-term greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide.
    ::::
    Current gas expansion plans in Western Australia, the Northern Territory and Queensland, where another 2,500 coal seam gas wells have been approved, reveal little impetus to deliver on this. Harvesting all of WA’s gas reserves would emit about 4.4 times more carbon dioxide equivalent than Australia’s total domestic energy-related emissions budget.
    ::::
    On this basis, Doctors for the Environment Australia (DEA) has reinforced its position that no new gas developments should occur in Australia, and that governments should increase monitoring, regulation and management of existing wells and gas production and transport infrastructure.

  29. “Opposition Leader Michael Daley blamed Wednesday night’s televised stumbles over his signature election policies on the “pressure of debate”.

    If the kitchen is too hot … get out.
    Daley should take a cruise.. now.. before he does irreparable damage.
    Shambolic!”

    Before those two gaffs he was killing it. Those gaffs – in the last 5 minutes or so of the debate came just after Gladys made her own gaff of equal magnitude – she conjured up yet another M4 toll. Oops. My take, from the 15 odd minutes of the debate I saw at the end was that Gladys was both rattled and out of touch but caught a very lucky break at the end.

    Will it matter? Well Labor have suffered a trifecta of oxygen sucking ‘issues’ in the past 4 days – the “shooters preference” non issue, Daley’s Asaian comments furor and last night’s debate gaff. Of course a compliant media in full on LNP campaign mode has gone to town and insofar as the media can influence momentum this has all been a liberal triumph.

    However, breaking down those issues one by one, and applying them to the actual on the ground dynamics of this election I simply dont know how this will play out. Not very well for the LNP is my guess. None of these issues seem capable of robbing the momentum outside sydney. Inside sydney I’ve always suspected that only 2-6 seats are really in play and at worse, I still expect Labor to pick up 2, but more probably 4. So … same same as last week. We shall see comrades.

  30. Gifting hundreds of millions of tax payer dollars to the mates to rebuild a 30 year old stadium which could have been brought up to current building code compliance for a few million and pushing the demo hard weeks before a state election. Seriously, stumbling over some budget figures on Sky (who watches it anyhow) pales into insignificance.

  31. Sceptic @ #2222 Thursday, March 21st, 2019 – 9:37 am

    Opposition Leader Michael Daley blamed Wednesday night’s televised stumbles over his signature election policies on the “pressure of debate”.

    If the kitchen is too hot … get out.
    Daley should take a cruise.. now.. before he does irreparable damage.
    Shambolic!

    Glad that you’re concentrating on things that matter, not like the cronyism, lying, mismanagement of the environment, and deliberate destruction of public assets that have been the hallmark of this putrid government.

  33. It’s all boiling over in the UK. Now Theresa May is being accused of inciting violence against MPs. She has the mentality of a dictator. The worst PM ever.

  35. “Daley should take a cruise.. now.. before he does irreparable damage.
    Shambolic!”

    You might have your wish Sceptic. After throwing some well timed punches at BerryJerryCan on Channel 9 today Daley seems to have gone missing from the campaign trial this morning. Or at least journos haven’t been invited to where he is going.

  37. Political donations to the major parties by the big 4 consulting firms:

    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/politics/federal/govt-nearly-triples-spend-on-big-four-consultancies-as-donations-rise-20190220-p50z22.html

    KPMG, PricewaterhouseCoopers, Ernst & Young and Deloitte won contracts worth $562 million last financial year, surpassing the $527 million record set in 2015-16 and taking their total under the Coalition to $2.1 billion.

    The firms’ donations to the major parties were also higher than ever, reaching $915,000 last financial year –almost twice the amount they gave when the government changed in 2013.
    :::
    Commonwealth spending on the big four firms more than tripled in the Rudd-Gillard years, Austender data shows, peaking at $365 million in 2012-13 before dropping to $210 million in the Coalition’s first year in power.

    Except for 2016-17, the spending grew every subsequent year, while the Coalition cut the public service to its smallest size in 12 years.
    :::
    Growing donations to the Liberal and Labor parties appeared to be a bid from consultancies to grow their influence and become more involved in policy making, Mr Bortz said.

    The big four have donated $3.5 million to the Labor, Liberal and National parties since the Coalition came to power.

  40. A-E
    IMO, Daley is showing the disbenefits of being in the job for 4 months.
    Will it hurt?
    Of course it will.
    How much will it hurt?
    Who knows?

  42. Thanks for that, BW.

    And you’re right; it doesn’t say one way or the other. I would still be interested in finding out. Might have to do some digging.

  43. “The worst PM ever.”

    Nah. That would be the Burlington Club and PR-Marketing flake that she replaced. He, and his Aussie mate, Sir Lynton, created all of this mess in the first place.

  44. ”
    Dominic Grieve, who has known May since they were at Oxford University together, spoke for many in his party when he gave a stinging speech in the emergency Brexit debate, saying he had “never felt more ashamed to be a member of the Conservative party”.

    He said the prime minister was “zig-zagging all over the place, rather than standing up for what the national interest must be” and if the government did not get a grip, “we will spiral down into oblivion – and the worst thing is, we will deserve it”.
    ”
    Questions
    1. Will there be ‘No Deal Brexit” on 29 March, 2019
    Or
    2. Will May resign before that because the only deal, ‘May deal’ which has been rejected twice, will not be taken up by the UK parliament

    3. Will the UK parliament speaker relent and allow the ‘May deal’ to be put to vote, which will then pass in parliament.

    4. Everybody are saying all hell will break loose if UK exits EU with ‘No Deal Brexit’. Hell for whom? Why should other countries suffer because of stupidity of UK people & politicians?

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/20/prime-minister-faces-increasing-pressure-to-quit-

  45. @KoparaFallsKid
    22m22 minutes ago

    Just a heads up folks. Centrelink disclosed my current address to my ex-husband. I strongly stress in my case this is NOT an issue of concern, but in some cases this could have awful consequences. I will be following up officially.

  46. Mikehilliard

    The Sydney Football Stadium debacle mirrors WA Premier Colin Barnett’s arrogance in pushing ahead with a freeway project in the dying days of his government in the face of ample evidence that the voters didn’t want it.

    And right on cue he bobbed up yesterday to highlight a ON preference deal in the demise of his government.

    I think he said it cost the coalition six seats. And what about the other dozen or so?

    The days of giving the voters bread and circuses (and the stadiums to stage them) are over.

    People are looking for more from their governments.

    A 700 million dollar stadium won’t improve the quality of life of anyone in NSW … except maybe the toffs in the corporate boxes.

  48. Ven
    A lot of that shouting and yelling and bullying is the noise of the hard Brexiteers trying to force a no deal exit now.
    They have only one setting and they will smash Britain, the Conservative Party and May, if that is what it takes.

  49. ”
    Victoria says:
    Thursday, March 21, 2019 at 10:12 am
    antonbrucker11

    She should resign.
    ”
    Victoria
    She should not resign now. If she resigns all hell will break loose for UK because some stupid idiot like Boris Johnson will become PM, which will be completely disastrous for them.

  50. Colin Barnett might be warning the Liberals off preference deals with PHON today, but it was a different story two years ago. More and more responsible? Yech.

Comments Page 45 of 55
1 … 44 45 46 … 55

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *