Federal election minus two months

No new federal poll, but preselection latest from Curtin, Moncrieff and Sturt in the House, and the Northern Territory in the Senate.

In an off week in the fortnightly cycle of Newspoll and Essential Research, and no Ipsos poll overnight in Nine Newspapers, it looks like poll junkies will have to make do with New South Wales this week. We do have a poll of Senate voting intention from The Australia Institute, encompassing by Dynata from 2019 voters through February and March, which has Labor on 33%, the Coalition on 28%, the Greens on 12% and One Nation on 8%, from which a post-election outcome is projected of 30 to 32 seats for the Coalition, 28 to 29 seats for Labor, eight to nine seats for the Greens, four to five seats for the One Nation, two to three for the Centre Alliance, one for Australian Conservatives, and possibly one for Derryn Hinch, Jacqui Lambie or Tasmanian independent Craig Garland. The poll was the subject of a paywalled report in the Financial Review, and a full report featuring detailed breakdowns will shortly be available on The Australia Institute’s website.

Other than that, some recent preselection developments to relate:

• Last week’s Liberal preselection to choose a successor to Julie Bishop in Curtin was won by Celia Hammond, former University of Notre Dame vice-chancellor, who secured victory in the first round with 51 votes out of 82. The only other competitive contender was Anna Dartnell, an executive for resources company Aurizon, who received 28 votes. Erin Watson-Lynn, who was said to have been favoured by Bishop, received only one vote, after receiving substantial unhelpful publicity for past social media comments critical of the Liberal Party. It has been widely suggested that Hammond’s socially conservative views make her an ill fit for the electorate, which recorded a 72% yes vote in the same-sex marriage referendum – hoping to take advantage of the situation is Louise Stewart, who established a chain of health care clinics, and identifies as a moderate and “independent Liberal”.

Andrew Potts of the Gold Coast Bulletin reports eight candidates have nominated for the preselection to succeed Steve Ciobo as the Liberal National Party candidate in Moncrieff, which is expected to be held in a few weeks. Gold Coast councillor Cameron Caldwell is reckoned to be the frontrunner, with other candidates including Karly Abbott, a staffer to Ciobo, and Fran Ward, a “local businesswoman”.

• Labor has preselected Cressida O’Hanlon, a family dispute resolution practitioner, as its candidate for the Adelaide seat of Sturt, which will be vacated with the retirement of Christopher Pyne. The Liberal preselection will be held on Saturday – the presumed front-runner, James Stevens, is backed by Pyne and other factional moderates, and faces opposition from two conservatives, Joanna Andrew and Deepa Mathew.

• The Country Liberal Party in the Northern Territory has preselected Sam McMahon, a Katherine-based veterinarian, out of a field of 12 to succeed the retiring Nigel Scullion as its Senate candidate.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,745 comments on “Federal election minus two months”

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  1. It’s a good old fashioned Tory feud …. yee ha ..

    “ANGRY Queensland federal LNP MPs are ready to go to war with colleagues in southern states over a push to put Pauline Hanson’s One Nation last in voting preferences.

    The political fight was sparked after Prime Minister Scott Morrison said on Tuesday that no preference deals would be done with One Nation.

    There was further blowback after Cabinet Minister Simon Birmingham said One Nation candidates could be put last.

    The Courier-Mail understands the LNP will not be making blanket preference decisions and will decide orders on a seat-by-seat basis.”

    https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/queensland-government/angry-qld-lnp-mps-ready-for-war-over-one-nation-preference-deal/news-story/ecc024843561245b08c7ae282d559df7

  2. Upnorth, ON are the voice of religious persecution. More than ever, the LNP need to dissociate themselves from ON. They must….but they probably cannot. Hopefully they will be torn limb from political limb.

  3. Late Riser

    My tips for Newspoll:

    The tightening continues. After a blinder of a week for Morrison, he’s getting all of the attention. I haven’t seen one incidence of Bill Shorten (who?) on TV making a goose of himself. It been all “Morrison this…”, and “Morrison that…”. Our temporary PM out there everyday imploding before our very eyes. And hasn’t he handled the spotlight well. Voters are really starting to warm to him, so for Newspoll I’m changing from my last pick of 98/2, to ALP 75, LNP 25.

    Essential – 54.7239618 ALP, 45.2760382 LNP.

    My Essential pick is from now on permanent.

  4. Thanks for the info about swinging voters Briefly. I presume your views are based on some inside knowledge. If the swingers don’t take much notice of what is happening in the media, what is it that causes landslide results, and where do the people who change governments come from?

  5. briefly – that’s correct. One Nation are a cancer that eats away at the LNP vote. The LNP are stuffed outside SEQ if they don’t deal with ON. But conversely they are stuffed in SEQ if they do a deal. They are straddling the barbed wire fence. The LNP need to bite the bullet and out ON last and ensure it’s killed off.

    They will lose seats for sure but in the long run the cancer will kill them.

  6. Granny Anny…most voters are disengaged most of the time. They focus occasionally and when it comes time to vote….otherwise they discount nearly everything…

  7. Granny Anny @ #2157 Wednesday, March 20th, 2019 – 9:32 pm

    Thanks for the info about swinging voters Briefly. I presume your views are based on some inside knowledge. If the swingers don’t take much notice of what is happening in the media, what is it that causes landslide results, and where do the people who change governments come from?

    Probably the biggest reason that SloMo is in deep shit with the allegations re-raised by The Project and their subsequent doubling down on them is that true or not, they reinforce preconceived ideas of SloMo and the L/NP. It’s the same reason that Mediscare was so effective, regardless of the truth, it resonated because it reinforced what the recipients already thought.

  8. Rocket Rocket @ #1567 Wednesday, March 20th, 2019 – 11:39 pm

    I think she’ll fail to get her deal through (it may not even get voted on)

    Yes. The Speaker has declared as much. No more votes on the deal without substantial change to its content. She can’t keep voting on it and hoping for a different outcome. 🙂

    then someone (Boris) will topple her, and they will end up with a no-deal Brexit on June 30th.

    Maybe. Though she’s still safe for close to a year unless she voluntarily resigns (or Corbyn gets up a no-confidence motion). And pretty much the only thing more unpopular than her deal is a no-deal Brexit. So can’t really see that one happening.

    If Boris (or equivalent) does get up and sets course straight for a no-deal Brexit, I think that’s when Corbyn will suddenly be able to succeed at winning no-confidence and a fresh election and maybe a second referendum.

  9. For some of my family not real interested in politics, the incumbents get the nod from the day they are elected.

    When a decision is made by the Govt that they find totally unacceptable, thats it. Next time the other lot will get a go.

    One such 24yo told me recently that in this term there were about a dozen things done by the Federal Govt that were totally unacceptable. It then does not matter what excuses are spun as the election approaches, the decision was made long ago and will not be changed.

    Few of the under 35s in my extended family ever buy a newspaper or watch any current affairs programs. Everything is from electronic devices and friends. You would be amazed at discussions a group of 20 year olds will have about employment, wages, T.A.F.E, the environment, cost of internet plans etc. They are switched on without seeming to be emotionally involved.

    Looking after the GBR and, lately, our inland rivers is more important than new submarines or promises of future tax cuts. They know more than they let on.

  10. imacca says:
    Thursday, March 21, 2019 at 1:52 am
    Looks like the French dont want to grant May an extension. No-Deal Brexit looming.

    DeGaulle’s ghost appears at the ramparts.

  11. The EU has condeded nearly everything to the UK who in reply still cannot accept a deal that honours their obligations to Ireland and to its own citizens in Northern Ireland. The UK has chosen most unwisely. They will have to live with it. It is just extraordinary that the UK will break the word they’ve given not only to the EU but to themselves.

  12. I’ve held off thinking the exercise was just academic but I’ve posted 55/45 for the last few polls (Newspoll and Essential) and I still think that’s where they are. Ipsos? Who knows?

  13. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Tony Wright says that the hate-filled killer at Christchurch’s mosques may be in custody, but he is still achieving what he wanted: escalating chaos, exemplified by the intemperate spat between Turkey and Australia.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/hate-filled-christchurch-killer-rapidly-achieves-what-he-wanted-chaos-20190320-p515uz.html
    David Wroe says that Turkey’s leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan is an authoritarian populist who routinely exploits religion for political value in his country.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/what-kind-of-friend-is-turkey-s-erdogan-if-he-fuels-tensions-to-win-a-local-election-20190320-p515ro.html
    In an excellent contribution John Warhurst ponders over what changes will occur in NZ and here as the shock waves of terrorism flow through them.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/oceania/what-will-change-as-shock-waves-of-terrorism-flow-across-two-countries-20190320-p515t5.html
    Michelle Grattan writes on how the Christchurch attack is straining Australian-Turkish relations ahead of ANZAC day.
    https://theconversation.com/christchurch-attack-strains-australian-turkish-relations-ahead-of-anzac-day-113932
    With Christchurch as a background Ed Husic has written a good piece on the damaging influences in our society.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/words-like-bullets-do-injure-let-s-talk-about-freedom-20190319-p515k2.html
    John Ruddick points his finger at the left over its blaming conservatives for what happened in Christchurch. Well he would, wouldn’t he?
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/left-s-ugly-bid-to-blame-conservative-australians-for-nz-atrocity-20190320-p515t3.html
    Lecturer in Terrorism Studies Kristy Campion explains how right-wing extremism has a long history in Australia.
    https://theconversation.com/right-wing-extremism-has-a-long-history-in-australia-113842
    Meanwhile The Age reports that one of Australia’s most prominent far-right extremists has escaped prosecution even though he left explicit, violent and repeated threats on the message bank of a Melbourne freelance journalist.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/right-winger-s-violent-threats-ignored-as-police-find-not-enough-evidence-20190320-p515xl.html
    The Project has hit back hard against Morrison’s protestations.
    https://www.outline.com/Yah9aL
    Sam Maiden has her say on the Project/Morrison stand-off.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2019/03/20/scott-morrison-anti-muslim-sentiment/
    The shooting outrage in New Zealand on Friday put a focus on anti-immigration, anti-Moslem, ethno-nationalist movements in many Western countries — but it’s a question whether it will break their support. Dr Lee Duffield joins in the drive to find explanations for a surge of barbarism this century reaching even into the peaceful streets of Christchurch.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/christchurch-attack-shaky-minds-guns-and-the-internet,12485
    Jennifer Hewett says Morrison’s regional push is walking a fragile line on migration.
    https://www.outline.com/EUXrjH
    Michelle Grattan has a piece on the migration proposal.
    https://theconversation.com/slimmed-down-migration-program-has-regional-focus-113847
    Nick O’Malley tells us why gun control has never got off the ground in New Zealand.
    https://www.theage.com.au/world/oceania/why-gun-control-has-never-got-off-the-ground-in-new-zealand-20190320-p515qd.html
    Greg Sheridan writes that the Christchurch massacre sounds the bell on our laissez-faire attitude to social media.
    https://www.outline.com/FTU3vu
    John Silvester says tweets don’t kill people – guns kill people.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/tweets-don-t-kill-people-guns-kill-people-20190319-p515fn.html
    David Crowe writes that senior Liberals including former Western Australian premier Colin Barnett said Australian voters would recoil from any hint of co-operation with Senator Hanson, outweighing the potential gain from trading preferences.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/former-liberal-leader-warns-preferencing-one-nation-cost-him-seats-20190320-p515y8.html
    Michael Koziol explains how the Morrison government faces its first test under the new medical transfer regime for refugees after doctors signed off on applications that are now sitting with refugee lawyers.cIt is expected the applications will be put to Department of Home Affairs secretary Michael Pezzullo and Immigration Minister David Coleman by the end of the week.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/morrison-government-faces-first-test-under-new-refugee-medical-transfer-laws-20190320-p515u0.html
    It seems Anning has racked up the highest bill for staff travel of any MP who does not hold a ministerial or shadow ministerial role. What a disgraceful being that One Nation has inflicted upon us!
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/fraser-anning-spent-most-taxpayers-money-on-family-travel-last-year-20190320-p515sm.html
    Kerri Sackville provides some advice on how to handle bigots in your social media sphere.
    https://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/life-and-relationships/it-is-okay-to-unfriend-that-bigot-in-your-timeline-20190320-p515px.html
    It is good the government is at last talking about population rather than boats. But the population plan it has released is very obviously a grab bag of measures rather than a carefully considered plan for Australia’s future, writes former Immigration department deputy secretary Abul Rizvi. This is well worth reading.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/pm-s-population-plan-riddled-with-holes-on-the-big-issue-immigration-20190320-p515sc.html
    For Americans, the most surprising aspect of the mass murder in Christchurch was not that 50 people died. Rather it has been the clear-headed determination of New Zealand, led by its Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, to act immediately on gun control, including a possible ban on assault weapons.
    https://www.outline.com/bBJ7qG
    Jess Irvine contrasts the two sides in the wages policy argument.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/stop-bagging-fat-cat-bosses-this-is-the-national-debate-we-need-20190320-p515w7.html
    Alexandra Smith reports that a secret report for the Sydney Cricket Ground Trust revealed that the Allianz Stadium could have been upgraded to meet all safety standards for as little as $18 million.
    https://www.smh.com.au/nsw-election-2019/stadium-could-have-been-refurbished-for-18-million-secret-report-shows-20190320-p515xo.html
    And she tells us about the Daley bombshell that Liberals sat on for months.
    https://www.smh.com.au/nsw-election-2019/the-daley-bombshell-that-liberals-sat-on-for-months-20190320-p515w9.html
    Esther Han reports that the senior NSW Treasury official who drove the privatisation of the land titles registry later became its chief financial officer in a “classic” case of the revolving door, renewing calls for the government to restrict such moves.
    https://www.smh.com.au/nsw-election-2019/smacks-of-revolving-door-treasury-official-nabbed-top-job-at-asset-he-was-trying-to-privatise-20190312-p513os.html
    And we see that the Coalition government sold one of Sydney’s most prestigious hotels to a Singaporean developer without an open tender despite internal advice a direct sale could breach “ICAC guidelines”.
    https://www.smh.com.au/nsw-election-2019/public-servants-raised-probity-concerns-over-hotel-sale-to-liberal-donor-20190319-p515ix.html
    How about this! The big four consultancies have nearly tripled their income from federal government contracts since the Coalition won power, while becoming among the nation’s most generous political donors.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/politics/federal/govt-nearly-triples-spend-on-big-four-consultancies-as-donations-rise-20190220-p50z22.html
    According to this SMH editorial the Coalition, which once provocatively divided Australia into lifters and leaners, has made a potentially significant change of policy towards the unemployed.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/helping-hand-needed-for-long-term-unemployed-20190320-p515ug.html
    The government’s proposed changes to how job seekers are made to look for work while receiving welfare have been mostly welcomed by stakeholders – although it’s also been warned against creating another “robodebt” scenario through an overreliance on automation.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/mar/20/new-rules-for-job-seekers-prompt-warning-about-another-robo-debt-debacle
    Catholic schools are threatening to reignite the funding wars, appealing to the federal government for a boost in capital grants to help provide for an expected surge in enrolments in the coming decade.
    https://www.outline.com/52bEuY
    Stephen Bartholomeusz writes that the US market had largely priced in a successful outcome from the trade negotiations between the US and China. Now it’s not so sure.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/markets-are-on-edge-as-us-trade-talks-with-china-hit-a-rough-patch-20190320-p515r9.html
    The European Commission opposes extending British membership of the European Union to June 30 as British Prime Minister Theresa May proposed on Wednesday, according to an EU document seen by Reuters.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/eu-commission-resists-theresa-may-s-june-30-brexit-date-document-show-20190321-p5160e.html
    The federal environment department has admitted it does not know whether recovery plans meant to prevent extinctions of threatened species are actually being implemented. I’m sure the impressive Melissa Price is all over it!
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/mar/20/no-clue-environment-department-doesnt-know-if-threatened-species-plans-implemented
    Richard Denniss explains why Australia needs to keep subsidising renewables.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/mar/20/heres-why-australia-needs-to-keep-subsidising-renewables
    Americans should not be fooled by the Stalinist tactics being used by the White House to try to discredit the findings of mainstream climate science. The Trump administration has already purged information about climate change from government websites, gagged federal experts and attempted to end funding for climate change programmes.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/mar/20/donald-trump-stalinist-techniques-climate-science
    Australia is facing a perfect storm of record household debt and falling property values. But some experts are reassuring the nation that the economy isn’t about to fall in a heap.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/money/property/2019/03/20/household-debt-high-property-prices-falling/
    Elizabeth Knight wonders if AMP’s scorched earth on bonuses be enough.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/will-amp-s-scorched-earth-on-bonuses-be-enough-20190320-p515tq.html
    Bupa’s Australian arm has dragged down the UK-based healthcare giant’s full-year results as it fights fires in its troubled aged care business that fell deep into the red last year.
    https://www.outline.com/vHsrHP
    China’s decision to increase scrutiny on Australian coal imports has been blamed on a speech by Christopher Pyne in Singapore.
    https://www.outline.com/yJaSTq
    many employers are saying that they are struggling to get their EA approved before the Fair Work Commission, with union opposition and the commission’s strict approach key stumbling blocks.
    https://www.outline.com/3ZspuL
    The AFR explains how ANZ is scrapping sales targets for tellers.
    https://www.outline.com/DGh7wV
    A tie-up between Coles and food delivery giant UberEats to include food staples in home deliveries has been hailed as a “long overdue” innovation for supermarkets.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/coles-quietly-expands-ubereats-trial-to-deliver-supermarket-essentials-20190319-p515k9.html
    From online gaming to e-health and education, the nation’s troubled broadband network has created a “digital divide” that means many Australians will be denied access to revolutionary technology, experts have warned.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/life/tech/2019/03/20/nbn-australia-google-stadia/
    Australia’s national science agency is being used to promote a weight-loss pill despite there being no scientific evidence it helps people lose weight.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/csiro-profiting-from-weight-loss-pill-with-no-scientific-backing-20190320-p515r7.html
    The Boeing 737 Max plot thickens.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/pilot-who-hitched-a-ride-saved-boeing-737-max-a-day-before-it-crashed-20190320-p515sq.html
    The pilots of the Lion Air Boeing 737 Max that crashed in Indonesia were searching a flight manual to try to find why the plane kept lurching downwards against their commands, according to reports of the cockpit voice recording.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/mar/20/lion-air-pilots-were-looking-at-handbook-when-plane-crashed
    European Union regulators have hit Google with a $A2.4 billion fine for abusing its dominant role in online advertising. It’s the third time the commission has slapped Google with an antitrust penalty, following multibillion-dollar fines resulting from separate probes into two other parts of the Silicon Valley giant’s business.
    https://www.outline.com/ukpvrs
    Trump has had yet another Twitter episode.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/trump-calls-top-aide-kellyanne-conway-s-spouse-husband-from-hell-in-twitter-brawl-20190321-p5160f.html
    Thieves in the city of Tijuana have made a mockery of Donald Trump’s attempts at beefing up border security by stealing the razor wire and reselling it to local residents in Mexico.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/mar/20/mexico-trump-border-wall-tijuana
    Today’s nomination for “Arsehole of the Week” goes to this young swimming coach.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/mosman-swimming-teacher-facing-28-more-child-sex-abuse-charges-20190320-p515qw.html

    Cartoon Corner

    Alan Moir with a very dark contribution.

    David Pope on the Turkey spat.

    And David Rowe chimes in too.

    What a ripper from Mark David!

    John Shakespeare with Daley’s problems.

    from Matt Golding.






    Cathy Wilcox on population and infrastructure policy.

    Glen Le Lievre and CC denialism.

    Zanetti could get the sack for this one!

    Jon Kudelka goes behind the lines in Gallipoli.
    https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/4cce9245ee48b79a21468ca4a592d105

    From the US




  14. Looking at BK’s selection today (brilliant work as usual) I’m reminded that the world’s problems are the result of men’s weakness’ ,never their strengths.
    Jacinta Adern has merely and oh so subtly brought that into sharp focus.

  15. John Ruddick points his finger at the left over its blaming conservatives for what happened in Christchurch. Well he would, wouldn’t he?
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/left-s-ugly-bid-to-blame-conservative-australians-for-nz-atrocity-20190320-p515t3.html

    And this is exactly where the problem in our society and our media also lies. (Not BK, he’s a gem for highlighting it).
    However, I think that this sort of fightback from the Right type article, which always seems to happen whenever the Right take a hit, is just the sort of thing that Editors should be looking at long and hard before they publish. It’s obviously constructed by the writer to muddy the waters and serves no useful purpose. I just wish that stuff and nonsense like this would be made to go away so that rational and thoughtful debate would be allowed to thrive. It’s a weed. It needs to be weeded out, I reckon.

  16. As the UK goes to hell in a handbasket, Lewis Goodall (political correspondent of Sky News UK) tips the bucket on the PM on her trashing of Parliament.

    https://news.sky.com/story/the-pms-conduct-puts-parliaments-long-term-vitality-in-peril-11671146

    She has reacted not with humility or contrition or openness, but with a tone so lecturing and hubristic that many MPs have thought her deeply arrogant. Her spokesman explains this by saying she is frustrated with parliament’s “inability to take a decision”.

    The truth is it has, repeatedly on all manner of things – they’re just not decisions to her liking.
    ………
    Government and our institutions are the same. Theresa May’s most solemn duty as prime minister, the current custodian of our democracy, is to respect the past, our political institutions, how they operate and crucially bequeath a functioning political system to its future tenants.

    That is more important than delivering her version of Brexit or keeping the Tory party together. It is more important than anything. I deeply worry that this thought might never to have occurred to her.

  17. From Erdogan’s communications director

    “President #Erdogan’s words were unfortunately taken out of context. He was responding to the so-called ‘manifesto’ of the terrorist who killed 50 innocent Muslims in Christchurch, NewZealand. Turks have always been the most welcoming & gracious hosts to their #Anzac visitors.”

  18. Dog’s Breakfast says:

    BTW is Zanetti turning?

    When Rupert turned on Howard one of the first signs were the cartoons in The Australian taking the piss out of Howard, especially Bill Leak’s.

  19. Without being an apologist for Erdogan, who has form with demonising the ‘other’ and using totalitarian methods to maintain control, here is the context of what he said…

  20. LR could you chalk me in for 55-45 Labor’s way on Newspoll and Essential.
    I am putting a stake in here and waiting for the poll respondents to catch up

  21. That Zanetti cartoon was accidentally shared by the “Bill Shorten Will Never Be PM” Facebook page – and subsequently shared by a number of their stupid followers – because they assumed it was having a go at Shorten!

    When I pointed out to my appalling racist, right-wing friend that it was Morrison in the cartoon, he immediately deleted it from his timeline.

  22. “an Obama-Trump voter in midwest …”

    Who is this mythical beast?

    A comparison of the county by county returns in the “swing” rust belt states for 2016 establish that there were a bunch of Obama voters who simply didn’t vote at all in the big towns and cities (democrat votes down from 2008 and 2012, but republican votes largely steady) whereas in the rural areas there was a huge turn out for trump – typically from people who hadn’t voted in years, or decades or never before (in those counties the democrat vote was reasonably steady from 4 years before, but the republican vote was at unprecedented levels).

    The reality is that there are two seperate potential voter demographics and the answer to the question of “who will win” is determined by which demographic turns out to vote in the largest number: in short “Swinging voters” is largely a fable; “swing states” are won by voter turn out.

  23. Are MAGAs starting to tire of the shitshow?

    Rick WilsonVerified account@TheRickWilson
    2h2 hours ago
    Trump just dumped on McCain again at the Ohio rally to dead silence.

    Got some boos against McCain when he mentioned the dossier.

    But the line fell totally flat.

  24. There’s a wrinkle that many are missing about the EU response to the request for delay.

    From this point (i.e. 21 March) even if the May deal passed parliament in the next 12 hours, it would not be possible to implement the May deal on 29 March, the turnaround is simply too short.

    So when the EU says “we will grant a delay if you pass the deal”, all they are really doing is acknowledging the pragmatic requirements of changing the entire structure of the border. It’s not a concession to May or to the UK at all.

    The EU is playing much harder ball than the headlines might lead you to believe.

  25. It seems this refers to Dingoes, i.e. ‘wild dogs’.

    @PaulaDale37

    I am completely outraged!

    China has requested that #Australia export dog meat from WA
    Is it not enough that they torture skin and boil dogs alive in their own country no obviously not now they want #Australian dogs
    @ScottMorrisonMP Do Not allow this barbarity…
    #auspol


  26. Has anyone heard if Malcolm Farnsworth is OK?

    Paula Matthewson posted on twitter yesterday that she was calling the police, and other journos were trying to work out if he was in Sydney.

    Sounds like as well as a political commentator he is an academic – a particularly brutal occupation in Australia at the moment.

  27. Dovey

    They seem to be treating it as Wild Dog Control. Melissa Price seems to have received communications about it, but she’s useless. I saw something recently about dingoes being a separate breed. Perhaps Boerwar could help?

  28. There are parallels with News ltd here. Obviously both Fox and News are owned by Rupert Murdoch. Perhaps when he is no longer with us the companies might find an alternate business model than peddling fear and hate.

    The single most important factor in Trump’s war on truth is a compliant right-wing media that will cover for him, attack enemies, obscure truth, make excuses, throw softball questions and denounce the real media for covering his presidency accurately. He needs Fox News and the crew of sycophantic blogs, talk radio hosts and formerly respectable print publications more than they need him. Sure, they’d lose some audience if they deviated from the Trump party line, but Trump might lose his grip on power. The stakes are much higher for Trump than for the intellectually corrupt right-wing media chorus.

    I find it unlikely that Trump will break with Fox News in any meaningful way. The question is whether Fox News executives, shareholders and employees decide that they are making money off the anguish of their country and the assault on democratic values and norms. Ultimately, they have to decide whether their business model — stirring up hatred and misleading mostly older, right-wing white audiences — is sustainable and whether they want their legacy to be: Helped make America a worse place.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/03/20/trump-cant-afford-lose-his-state-tv/?utm_term=.7b3a83ad7dd8

  29. The full text of the Turkish Premier says what it says

    If Ad Man from Mad Men could read past 2 or 3 words and the absolute need to be the headline the context of the Turkish Premier may have been considered instead of the intemperate response from Ad Man from Mad Men

    Back in the day, in banking, you were given the set of accounts to manage

    Some of those who then became your client base you had little personal regard for for whatever reason/s but it was privy on you and your position to maintain and foster the absolute professional relationship (given the outcome of the Risk Assessment, obviously)

    And even when the Risk Assessment was negative absolute professionalism was the requirement

    The question is what is the work place background of Ad Man from Mad Men to perform in a professional space?

    Where are his negotiation skills?

    Where is his professionalism?

    Aka the NZ Premier?

    Then there is the compliant media in Australia which is the catalyst for such a lack of professialism – with their bias and focus on conflict

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