Federal election minus two months

No new federal poll, but preselection latest from Curtin, Moncrieff and Sturt in the House, and the Northern Territory in the Senate.

In an off week in the fortnightly cycle of Newspoll and Essential Research, and no Ipsos poll overnight in Nine Newspapers, it looks like poll junkies will have to make do with New South Wales this week. We do have a poll of Senate voting intention from The Australia Institute, encompassing by Dynata from 2019 voters through February and March, which has Labor on 33%, the Coalition on 28%, the Greens on 12% and One Nation on 8%, from which a post-election outcome is projected of 30 to 32 seats for the Coalition, 28 to 29 seats for Labor, eight to nine seats for the Greens, four to five seats for the One Nation, two to three for the Centre Alliance, one for Australian Conservatives, and possibly one for Derryn Hinch, Jacqui Lambie or Tasmanian independent Craig Garland. The poll was the subject of a paywalled report in the Financial Review, and a full report featuring detailed breakdowns will shortly be available on The Australia Institute’s website.

Other than that, some recent preselection developments to relate:

• Last week’s Liberal preselection to choose a successor to Julie Bishop in Curtin was won by Celia Hammond, former University of Notre Dame vice-chancellor, who secured victory in the first round with 51 votes out of 82. The only other competitive contender was Anna Dartnell, an executive for resources company Aurizon, who received 28 votes. Erin Watson-Lynn, who was said to have been favoured by Bishop, received only one vote, after receiving substantial unhelpful publicity for past social media comments critical of the Liberal Party. It has been widely suggested that Hammond’s socially conservative views make her an ill fit for the electorate, which recorded a 72% yes vote in the same-sex marriage referendum – hoping to take advantage of the situation is Louise Stewart, who established a chain of health care clinics, and identifies as a moderate and “independent Liberal”.

• Andrew Potts of the Gold Coast Bulletin reports eight candidates have nominated for the preselection to succeed Steve Ciobo as the Liberal National Party candidate in Moncrieff, which is expected to be held in a few weeks. Gold Coast councillor Cameron Caldwell is reckoned to be the frontrunner, with other candidates including Karly Abbott, a staffer to Ciobo, and Fran Ward, a “local businesswoman”.

• Labor has preselected Cressida O’Hanlon, a family dispute resolution practitioner, as its candidate for the Adelaide seat of Sturt, which will be vacated with the retirement of Christopher Pyne. The Liberal preselection will be held on Saturday – the presumed front-runner, James Stevens, is backed by Pyne and other factional moderates, and faces opposition from two conservatives, Joanna Andrew and Deepa Mathew.

• The Country Liberal Party in the Northern Territory has preselected Sam McMahon, a Katherine-based veterinarian, out of a field of 12 to succeed the retiring Nigel Scullion as its Senate candidate.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,745 comments on “Federal election minus two months”

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  1. Gorks @ #2099 Wednesday, March 20th, 2019 – 10:31 pm

    People talking down Beto’s credentials, Hillary Clinton was a well qualified and experienced candidate. How did that turn out?

    Voting is an emotional process. It’s not a case of putting 2 resumes side by side and picking the best person for the job

    Mate,

    It’s not a process of talking down. They don’t exist!

  3. I’ve been thinking about whether any Liberal will break ranks and dob ScumMo in by leaking proof of his opportunistic Islamophobia . I don’t think it’s gonna happen. These are Liberals from the top of the heap. They won’t betray the faith. Heavily insinuate maybe. Sink the ship ,I don’t think.

  7. I highly doubt an Obama-Trump voter in midwest gives a fuck about Beto’s credentials or lack thereof. It is all about making a connection with these people on issues and relating to them.

  8. Gorks @ #2099 Wednesday, March 20th, 2019 – 7:31 pm

    People talking down Beto’s credentials, Hillary Clinton was a well qualified and experienced candidate. How did that turn out?

    Voting is an emotional process. It’s not a case of putting 2 resumes side by side and picking the best person for the job

    Hillary Clinton was by far and away the preferred presidential candidate by voters in 2016. She was defeated by the undemocratic Electoral College.

  9. C@tmomma @ #2103 Wednesday, March 20th, 2019 – 10:36 pm

    I’ve been thinking about whether any Liberal will break ranks and dob ScumMo in by leaking proof of his opportunistic Islamophobia . I don’t think it’s gonna happen. These are Liberals from the top of the heap. They won’t betray the faith. Heavily insinuate maybe. Sink the ship ,I don’t think.

    Turnbull, Bishop, Pyne are notorious leakers from that time.

    So, tell me, pray tell, where the fuckover is coming from.

  14. Confessions @ #1480 Wednesday, March 20th, 2019 – 8:51 pm

    This morning for eg he posted a photo of himself chowing down on ice cream for breakfast. He’s a grown-ass man with kids of his own. When I first left home I think think I ate ice cream for breakfast every day for that first week just because…FREEDOM! But Beto is in his 40s. Is he trying to appeal to the youth vote? These kinds of images just make him look like a flake. Don’t post them to your feed, Beto. Post them to your stories which stay for 24hours and then go.
    https://www.instagram.com/p/BvMSNTJlKS0/

    I feel like you’re overreacting just a tad. 🙂

  15. I just caught up with all of the last two days news, ScumMo being called out for his 2011 attempt to play the race card, his denial, legal threat, backdown and walkout from the interview.

    Me thinks he protest too much. In his first sorrowful statement at Christchurch he over-emphasised “shocked”. If he was being defamed, why withdraw the legal threat? Other coalition politicians have followed through with them. The intrview walkout was a particular tell.

    In his denial full of rage, ScumMo reminded me of George Pell.

  16. What might be called Anzacgate is getting a big run on the ABC late news.

    Erdogan is just another right wing populist blowhard, we seem to have so many around the world these days, one with acute political antennae, who is disgracefully exploiting the Christchurch atrocity for political gain.

  17. Gorks @ #1514 Wednesday, March 20th, 2019 – 9:40 pm

    I highly doubt an Obama-Trump voter in midwest gives a fuck about Beto’s credentials or lack thereof. It is all about making a connection with these people on issues and relating to them.

    Or winning Texas. Every other Obama-Trump voter in the midwest can piss off if the Democrats can win Texas by running a Texan.

  18. a r @ #2114 Wednesday, March 20th, 2019 – 7:52 pm

    Confessions @ #1480 Wednesday, March 20th, 2019 – 8:51 pm

    This morning for eg he posted a photo of himself chowing down on ice cream for breakfast. He’s a grown-ass man with kids of his own. When I first left home I think think I ate ice cream for breakfast every day for that first week just because…FREEDOM! But Beto is in his 40s. Is he trying to appeal to the youth vote? These kinds of images just make him look like a flake. Don’t post them to your feed, Beto. Post them to your stories which stay for 24hours and then go.
    https://www.instagram.com/p/BvMSNTJlKS0/

    I feel like you’re overreacting just a tad. 🙂

    Not really. Every day on his social media feed brings more of the same idiotic contributions. I’m just glad he’s eschewed bringing his new followers since announcing his run into the dentist room with him. Although this could still be a possibility.

  19. Why not Dutton or more likely one of his mates doing the leaking. Doing Morrison in can ensure they get the leadership after the election. Very surprising that it was the Dutton camp out of the blocks pretending to defend Morrison. Dark Ops at work!

  20. Any further destabilization will mean Dutton will lose his seat. I don’t see him causing any issues for Morrison, not this close to an election.

  21. Morrison is rightly sensitive about the allegations against him that have been floating around since 2011.

    But I would love to know who thought it a good idea to threaten to sue.

    That has all the hallmarks of an attempt to stifle debate and merely set the hounds running again.

    Then to back off just adds more grist to the mill.

    If Morrison had said nothing in response to Waleed we would not be talking about the issue today.

    Remember Campbell Newman tried to shut up Alan Jones in a campaign environment with a defamation action.

    It came to nothing, one of Jones few wins in the courts.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-04-29/campbell-newman-drops-alan-jones-defamation-case/6431284

  23. Seeing that Peter Hartcher broke the story back in 2011, my guess is that whichever Cabinet minister he has been most complimentary of since then was the source. Bishop? Anyone done an analysis of his articles these past 8 years?

  24. No doubt the tactic of Ad Man from Mad Men is to parade his pm status in our media

    So leading the nightly News Service or appearing in printed media headlines

    “pm” is the status he trades in

    Hence the overplay in regards Turkey, where, given an Australian citizen is identified as the mass murderer of Muslims going about their lives, the warning is that IF any Australian seeks to cause such damage by visiting Turkey under cover of attending ANZAC Cove, they will be summarily dealt with

    So anyone with the intent to inflict damage on Muslims because of their racist profile should not contemplate entering Turkey with intent

    Put the boot on the other foot

    We are the Nation which trumpets we will decide who comes here and how they come here

    And, if they come by boat they are incarcerated on adjoining Islands in detention centres

    And we tell them that

    So where is the fundamental difference?

    IF

    What Ad Man from Mad Men is about is the headlines – I am the pm, look at me

    Interestingly the Turkish Premier has referred to the NZ Premier as he has – praising her

    Then you have the response of Peters

    The leadership of NZ puts the current leadership in Australia to shame

    Which, unfortunately, is where we are at

    The comments of the Turkish Premier were over the top no doubt because of the substitution of “face the full effects of our laws” with summary justice

    We also house those such as Hanson and Anning and Ad Man from Mad Men and others who peddle a racist agenda in our parliament – I repeat that, in our parliament so representing the Australian electorate

    No wonder they attract retribution from those they relentlessly demonise as a political tactic, the success of which is a stain on everyone of us

    Listen to the NZ Premier who the focus is correctly on at this time

    Ad Man from Mad Men is not the headline from what has happened at the hands of an Australian citizen in NZ – but he seeks to assert that he is

    What a failure

  28. Although some uncertainty has been voiced on whether there will be a Newspoll this Sunday or that maybe Ipsos might publish one, I’m happy to plough on. If the polls appear, then good. If none eventuate, so be it.

    It’s been a long day on this side of the screen, so I’m calling it a night with this list of new guesses for Newspoll and/or Essential since I posted the full lists a few hours ago. I’ll come back in the morning and continue harvesting from here. I’ll post all the guesses (Newspoll, Essential and Ipsos) late tomorrow. Good night all.

    ————————–
    PB-Guess: Newspoll 2019-03-24
    PB median: ALP 54.0 to 46.0 LNP
    PB mode: ALP 54.0 to 46.0 LNP
    PB mean: ALP 53.7 to 46.3 LNP
    No. Of PB Respondents: 42

    NEW GUESSES since: 17:49 AEST today
    ALP / LNP
    54 / 46 (?)andy Murray
    53 / 47 a r *until the election
    53 / 47 chinda63
    53 / 47 Clem Attlee
    52 / 48 Davidwh *doubtful
    52 / 48 Douglas and Milko
    53 / 47 Lynchpin
    52 / 48 MM
    53 / 47 Mundo
    53 / 47 SilentMajority
    52 / 48 Steve777
    53 / 47 Tricot

    ————————–
    PB-Guess: Essential 2019-03-26
    PB median: ALP 53.0 to 47.0 LNP
    PB mode: ALP 53.0 to 47.0 LNP
    PB mean: ALP 53.5 to 46.5 LNP
    No. Of PB Respondents: 37

    NEW GUESSES since: 17:49 AEST today
    ALP / LNP
    54 / 46 (?)andy Murray
    53 / 47 a r *until the election
    52 / 48 chinda63
    53 / 47 Clem Attlee
    52 / 48 Douglas and Milko
    52 / 48 MM
    53 / 47 SilentMajority
    52 / 48 Steve777
    53 / 47 Tricot

  32. Morrison is tagged as a bigot and he’s been made an accomplice to both religious persecution and political atrocity. His partisans will not want to believe it. They will fume about it. Everyone else will read Morrison on the basis of everything he’s said and done over the years.

    He would be more credible if he were to unequivocally reject the Islamophobic croaker, ON, as well as the other Qld Senator. But he’s a moral weakling. He won’t dissociate the LNP from ON.

    He deserves to lose the election for this alone.

  34. Lenore Taylor
    @lenoretaylor
    and it was followed at the time by Peter Hartcher
    (link: https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/ugly-game-of-race-baiting-20110218-1azkt.html)
    smh.com.au/politics/feder… and Andrew Probyn
    (link: https://thewest.com.au/news/australia/abbott-cornered-in-race-backlash-ng-ya-180226)
    thewest.com.au/news/australia… ????
    ____________________________________
    So that means 3 journalist presumably had 2 sources each, or the same 2 sources gave the story to 3 successive journos. Either way, looks pretty solid.

  36. Morrison is tagged as a bigot and he’s been made an accomplice to both religious persecution and political atrocity. His partisans will not want to believe it. They will fume about it. Everyone else will read Morrison on the basis of everything he’s said and done over the years.

    Yeah I’ll bet he’s regretting those ‘I stopped these’ asylum seeker boat monuments he has in his office.

  37. Confessions, the LNP names have been happy to brag about their toughness; to bathe in it. Now they can’t rinse it off. They have tattooed themselves.

  39. Shorten has been calling on the LNP to join Labor in the rejection of extremism. It is a very reasonable call. But the LNP cannot take it up. Unless they share the platform with Shorten they will code themselves as pro-extremist. They have got themselves in the bigots’ corner. They will pay for that.

  40. Can’t help wondering whether Mr Morrison himself might have been the person who leaked the story about his anti-Muslim ponderings in shadow cabinet. Back then he might well have thought it would burnish his image among a certain class of persons.

  41. ar, diehard Libs will really deeply object to the as-yet unsubstantiated tagging of Morrison. They will feel insulted by it. They will feel wrongly blamed.

  44. The SMH front page tomorrow rekindles the stadium debate with a dash of added petrol. Bill Shorten was on a winner either way. If Labor win in NSW it’s an unexpected bonus. If they lose its Daley’s fault for recent, or reanimated, stuff-ups. Now with the latest stadium revelations they might get the win despite trying their best to blow it.

    I had expected the Coalition to get a slight bump from the recent events as people tend to cling to certainty in unsettled times. Many normally unengaged folk would have seen Morrison being, by his standards at least, quite measured and prime ministerial on Friday.

    However, Morrison’s (or at least a staffer’s) massive error of judgement in keeping the Waleed Ali story alive with utterly daft threats of defamation suits has put paid to that.

    ScoMo’s angry reaction in storming off from the presser delivering good visuals for TV being the icing on the cake.

  45. I haven’t bothered to try poll prediction before. Obviously, in my case at least, a fair bit of guess work and wishful thinking is involved.

    On the assumption that elections are decided by swinging voters who sway about the centre of the opinion spectrum, and that these voters probably keep an eye on what is in the news, I will predict 55:45 for Newspoll & 54:46 for Essential. You can all buy me a lotto ticket if I’m right.

    Cheers

  46. So many things are running against the LNP….the climate, their sexism, their homophobia, their racial/religious phobias, the dismal record on wages/incomes, their health and social policy failures….there is nothing that will work for them.

    They going to be smashed.

  48. Granny Anny….you’re right about swinging voters. If they change their votes, they change the government. However, mostly they pay no attention to politics, which just annoys them intensely most of the time.

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