BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Labor

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate maintains its steady course overall, but with signs of the Greens losing ground.

Another fairly uneventful week in the world of BludgerTrack, which has only nudged 0.1% in favour of Labor on two-party preferred and one on the seat projection (the gain being in New South Wales), despite their one-point improvements in the week’s Newspoll and Essential Research polls. If there’s anything worth noting, it’s that the Greens have fallen below 9%, and One Nation are back up after a recent dip. Both pollsters also produced new numbers for the leadership trends, the only observable movement on which is that Scott Morrison’s net approval is slightly improving, for no immediately obvious reason. Full results through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,561 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Labor”

  1. LR

    On Brexit. Until legislation changes it you don’t have to think. The fact is hard Brexit is the default until legislation overrides it.

    Pedantic point but with the Brexit craziness I think it’s worth making. I know you mean the likely outcome

  2. ‘Astrobleme says:
    Friday, March 15, 2019 at 12:22 pm

    “‘Removal from Australian territory of all facilities which enable deployment of nuclear weapons.’”
    The ships/planes. etc. See NZ.’

    If you actually study the Greens policies you will note that they have a separate line about banning visits by nuclear armed planes and ships so your first explanation does not fit the bill.

    What do the Greens mean when they state, “‘Removal from Australian territory of all facilities which enable deployment of nuclear weapons.’

    I await your second guess at interpreting this Greens policy with some interest.

    In terms of dismantling the ADF, the intention of the Greens is to turn it into a ‘Light Mobile Force’, not to keep both. Military history is replete with the disaster that happen when Light Mobile Forces run into the real thing.

  3. A similar tack was used re live sheep/cattle exports a few years back. Yes our animals were subjected to at times inhumane conditions but we must keep doing it or even worserer people than us would do it.

    I would argue that selling uranium for power generation (or for medical purposes) is different to the disgracefully cruel treatment of animals.

    I am also not convinced that the Middle East could get that level of live export from elsewhere. I am also not convinced that the sellers and the buyers would not be able to get together and find a better solution to dealing with the demand than treating animals like that. The existing methods seem like a rather lazy and easy grab for cash rather than a smarter effort at selling, marketing and developing a trade and product.

  4. ‘rhwombat says:
    Friday, March 15, 2019 at 12:40 pm

    The kids are alright. It’s beginning to feel like 1972 again. This time I can vote.’

    I do believe I have attended just every protest since the Vietnam War days. I don’t think any of them made much difference in the real world.
    That said, it is nice to see youngsters with a bit of fire in the belly.
    Good on them.

  5. Shooter described as white, blond, and quite short

    Heck. Like Christchurch needs this.
    And that description, in Christchurch, doesnt narrow it down much.

  6. ‘Simon² Katich® says:
    Friday, March 15, 2019 at 12:44 pm

    I would argue that selling uranium for power generation (or for medical purposes) is different to the disgracefully cruel treatment of animals.’

    It is Greens policy to close down Lucas Heights and not replace it.

  7. antonbruckner

    Yes, you may be right regarding the EU’s support for Ireland. A long extension to brexit as hinted at by Donald Tusk is possibly their solution. But i cannot see it being acceptable politically in UK.

    Farange is gearing up to attack the politicians again with his new Brexit Party.

  8. It is Greens policy to close down Lucas Heights and not replace it.

    It is my policy to close it down and move it away.
    I watched engineers try to design a net to protect it from a 9/11 style attack. They came up with a rather impressive construction that was only going to probably maybe stop a very small light plane.

  9. Barney

    I don’t think the vote against the hard brexit is binding. My understanding is that unless there is an extension UK will automatically leave the EU on 29 March.

  10. Barney, Victoria

    I hope you are right, but the other half of the negotiations is the EU27. The default if no-one can agree is a hard Brexit on March 29. The UK voted to try an extension rather than decide on a Hard Brexit. The ball is in the EU court.

  11. Barney in Cà Mau @ #209 Friday, March 15th, 2019 – 11:50 am

    The problem for a Hard Brexit is that the Parliament has voted against this in relation to the current exit date.

    Yeah, exactly. A hard Brexit was rejected. Which means there should be an obligation to seek more time (and it was voted that more time should be sought, anyways). The EU comes back with “we’re done playing games, if you want an extension show you’re serious and hold a new referendum; otherwise, enjoy your hard Brexit”.

    The UK has already said they’re not willing to enjoy their hard Brexit. If they stand by that and assuming the EU doesn’t allow itself to be cowed into another last-minute backdown, a fresh referendum is where we’re at. The options on it should be “hard Brexit” and “Remain”.

    swamprat @ #212 Friday, March 15th, 2019 – 11:51 am

    Farange is gearing up to attack the politicians again with his new Brexit Party.

    Then May really should have hurried up and nailed him with Russian collusion when she had the chance, shouldn’t she?

  12. Swamprat

    Yes. I expect that legislation is going to be introduced tonight or next week.
    All the parliament did was instruct the government to delay and negotiate.

    May is still using that cliff edge to try and force her deal on the parliament

    Edit: I should add I expect the EU to agree to a long term extension Tusk has made it clear that he prefers that to a hard Brexit or short extension

  13. Simon² Katich®

    It was the similarity in ‘reasoning’ used I was pointing out. Agree with……………..

    The existing methods seem like a rather lazy and easy grab for cash rather than a smarter effort at selling, marketing and developing a trade and product.

    Sheep laden NZ banned live exports (except for breeding) and it didn’t seem to kill off their farmers. 2018 exports were records to ME, 180,000 tons mutton 270,000 tons lamb frozen/chilled.

  14. Late Riser – very interesting. Of course, it’s important to remember that May doesn’t have a “deal” with the EU. She just has an interim arrangement pending final settlement. The EU is making it bloody obvious what the final settlement will be: a VERY soft brexit. That might stop the Brexit loonies voting for May’s interim deal at the third vote next week. If May loses the vote there will be a LONG suspension of the withdrawal and maybe the whole thing will go away.

  15. Late Riser

    As I said earlier, I don’t trust Italys Matt Salvini, but EU countries want the UK to remain member. It is in their interests

  16. My kids are out front of SA Parliament protesting today.

    They have a poster saying Uranium, not Coal!

    Ok, joking about the second part.

  17. SK

    I agree that shutting down Lucas Heights and replacing it elsewhere is the rational thing to do.

    The problem is that there would immediately be a major Greens campaign to stop a replacement facility being built.

    So we are stuck with treating sick people using an ageing facility in a dangerously built up area.

  18. Of course, the EU has the best bargaining position imaginable: “We understand your position, but we’ve got to get 27 people to sign on the dotted line, so this is the best we can offer I’m afraid. Sorry about that …”

  19. They don’t want hard brexit, May’s deal, Referendum#2, or a second election. Nobody believes Corbyn can negotiate ‘his’ deal.
    Let’s kick the can down the road a bit and see what happens next.

  20. Bomb in a car on Strickland Street in Christchurch

    There is a bomb on Strickland Street in Christchurch, two police officers have confirmed to our reporter on the ground.

    The bomb is located inside a beige Subaru that has crashed on Strickland Street, about three kilometres from the Al Noor Mosque where the shooting took place.

    “You’re not safe here, there’s a bomb in that car,” a senior police officer told our reporter Eleanor Ainge Roy. She and the police have moved back several hundred metres, to stay at a safe difference.

  21. It just says “Uranium”?

    Ha!
    No, it says; We have no Plan(et) B. Stop endangering our environment.

    Or something like that.

  22. Victoria
    but EU countries want the UK to remain member. It is in their interests

    I don’t know that I agree with that entirely. A lot of Europeans have made it clear they would be very happy for the British to rack off.

    But they’ve also made it clear that the price of leaving has to be so high as to act as a deterrent to any other European nation that might be entertaining similar ideas of leaving.

    Ultimately, the goal of making leaving the EU as unattractive as possible to all European nations far outweighs any desire to see the UK leave. It is this alone that sees both the prospect of the UK remaining in the EU or crashing out increase the closer we get to the 29th of March.

  23. naff seems as rattled as Quoll. Willing to through shade left and right to deflect the failing of his pet vanity project. Like I said to Quoll: don’t worry, you’ll always have Ipsos.

  24. A11

    Yes. The Brexiteers lost that battle last night. They have a delusion that May’s stubbornness is strength.

    In negotiations the EU gets to put conditions into any extension.
    The Pro EU forces will do as much as they can to help a delay. It’s in their interest.

    Its why the Brexiteers tried to put a time limit into the extension. It was voted down.

  25. It’s not just car bombs. There’s been a mass shooting at a mosque in Christchurch as well, with the shooter(s) not yet apprehended.

  26. a fresh referendum is where we’re at. The options on it should be “hard Brexit” and “Remain”.

    The only evidence I have seen for a referendum is Labour saying it is still an option. Conservatives and Labor are divided on a Referendum. Someone else posted this first, but whichever party backs a referendum will be split and out of power for some time. I think May is pursuing a strategy to deny Labour government. So the options she is giving her government MPs is: a Labor government (bad for them), a hard Brexit (worse for them), or May’s Brexit (best of a bad lot).

  27. Bangladeshi cricketer, Tamim Iqbal Khan, has tweeted that the “entire team got saved from active shooters”. The team were at Al Noor mosque this morning when the incident took place, he described it as a a “frightening experience”.

  28. ar
    I was wondering about that.
    Perhaps the MSM thinks that female students are more interesting MSM fodder?
    Perhaps it reflects a general and justifiable state of being pissed off by women and young women?
    The latter echoed by the gender splits in the Fed polling?
    I don’t know.

  29. This is too funny. From the Guardian:

    Barclay wound up the debate for the government, saying: “It is time for this house to act in the national interest, it’s time to put forward an extension that is realistic” – before trooping through the no lobby to reject that argument. Government sources insisted he was not intending to resign, despite his unprecedented action.

    The shadow Brexit secretary, Keir Starmer, said: “This evening the Brexit secretary voted against his government’s own motion on Brexit, which earlier in the day he had defended in the House of Commons. That’s the equivalent of the chancellor voting against his own budget. This is a government that has completely lost control.”

  30. Police have no idea where the shooter is and have closed down/locked down government buildings and told everyone to stay inside.

  31. What do they have against introverts?

    I think the point is that introverts would be less likely to voice an opinion, even attend a public rally, unless they felt the situation was really bad.

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