BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Labor

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate maintains its steady course overall, but with signs of the Greens losing ground.

Another fairly uneventful week in the world of BludgerTrack, which has only nudged 0.1% in favour of Labor on two-party preferred and one on the seat projection (the gain being in New South Wales), despite their one-point improvements in the week’s Newspoll and Essential Research polls. If there’s anything worth noting, it’s that the Greens have fallen below 9%, and One Nation are back up after a recent dip. Both pollsters also produced new numbers for the leadership trends, the only observable movement on which is that Scott Morrison’s net approval is slightly improving, for no immediately obvious reason. Full results through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,561 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Labor”

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  1. It be interesting to see how the Green vote holds up in the State election.

    BludgerTrack has the federal NSW Green vote at 7%, the lowest of any State, with Victoria next on 8.2%.

  2. The G vote is ebbing.

    I’ve been trying to tell them this would happen. I’ve been candid and I’ve given them the correct analysis. For free. Yet they refuse to change their business plan. They campaign against themselves. They shake their wretched heads and blame their friends as well as their enemies for their misfortunes. Oh well, the tide will wash them away I guess.

    To be attacked by the Gs these days is really to be commended – their rebukes shine like bright medals.

  3. SilentMajority says:
    Friday, March 15, 2019 at 1:34 am
    Lets get this out early.

    Libs to get 50 seats or less.

    They have 75 now. I’m a-hoping they will lose at least half of these. I think 32…33…34….that would be enough to shake them up.

    The country needs change. We will vote for it. We will vote in overwhelming numbers against incumbent LNP members. There is no alternative now. Change is the essential thing.

  4. Will be interesting to see how close Newspoll is to the result on NSW election night.If it underestimates the Labor vote then the Libs could face the biggest defeat in history at the federal election.

  5. steve davis….I think cataclysmic defeat awaits the LNP. They have been an incredibly bad government. Just stupefyingly bad. All the campaign themes are running against them; and they are running against each other too; running into each other. They have betrayed their own most-loyal supporters. They have treated us all like idiots and they think we’ll never notice. They’re wrong. Voters have taken note and they will decimate the LNP for their insolence, incompetence and idiocy.

    Nothing will stop voters from coalescing around Labor.

  6. The Commons has voted against every leave with-a-deal, voted against leave without-a-deal and now voted against another people’s vote!

    The UK can’t leave and can’t remain!!

    It’s ungovernable…… maybe the only option is to ask the EU for an extension and elect a new Parliament. Though that may return the same paralysis!

  7. I like this comment.

    Who cares what @ScottMorrisonMP says? His government chose to work 13 days in 8 months. His government did nothing in 6 years to counter climate change. He has no right to question the work ethic of students.

  8. Such a parody of a President, it’s hard to think he’s real.

    Deb Kirby @DuchessFrida
    8h8 hours ago

    Swedish Teen Climate Activist Greta Thunberg Has Been Nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize.
    Japan has nominated Trump (because he asked them to).
    There’s no contest in my opinion. Greta is working to preserve the future. #NobelPeacePrize

  9. lizzie @ #13 Friday, March 15th, 2019 – 6:01 am

    I like this comment.

    Who cares what @ScottMorrisonMP says? His government chose to work 13 days in 8 months. His government did nothing in 6 years to counter climate change. He has no right to question the work ethic of students.

    I thought this was brilliant:

    Michael Pascoe

    Anyone have a Venn diagram of people attacking kids taking day off school to protest and people happy to take kids out of school for cheaper airfare on holidays?

  10. Barney in Cà Mau @ #4 Friday, March 15th, 2019 – 1:17 am

    It be interesting to see how the Green vote holds up in the State election.

    BludgerTrack has the federal NSW Green vote at 7%, the lowest of any State, with Victoria next on 8.2%.

    On the Pre Poll one day, The Greens candidate did a little dance when a voter only took his HTV. 😀

  11. He’s baaaack!

    Former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull has warned the “idiocy” of a renewed fight over coal-fired power among federal MPs is damaging the chances of NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian as she fights the knife-edge state election.

    Several NSW ministers, including the leader and deputy leader of the Nationals, also blamed ongoing instability in Canberra for undermining the state campaign at a critical time.

    Mr Turnbull said it was “obvious” ongoing distractions and infighting within the Coalition – such as fresh talk of challenge to Deputy Prime Minister Michael McCormack’s leadership of the Nationals – was hurting the Liberal government’s hopes of holding power at the poll in just nine days.

    “You haven’t worked out how damaging it is? Clearly all of the distraction from the feds is unhelpful. That’s obvious,” he told The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age in Bondi Junction.


    The Coalition has dangled the $3 billion at any future Victorian government that commits to the 18-kilometre road project, which Labor infamously dumped at a cost to taxpayers of more than $1 billion in 2015.

    The Victorian coalition went to last year’s election promising to build the project but was soundly defeated, suffering big swings in eastern suburban electorates the road would service.

    Mr Andrews confirmed soon after Labor’s thumping election win in November that the project – a toll road running between the Eastern Freeway in Clifton Hill and the Western Ring Road in Sunshine West – remained firmly off his government’s agenda.

    A 2014 business case for the road found it was an economically wasteful project that would have produced 45 cents in benefits for every dollar spent on it.

    Mr Shorten said on Thursday that the Morrison government should “climb down off their high horse and free up some infrastructure money for Victorians and Melburnians in a way which has been voted on at the state election”.

  13. Aus, through Home Affairs, is paying to rescue a PNG company. Who is in charge of this disaster? Step forward, Mr Potato.

    A Papua New Guinea company paid $82 million by Australian taxpayers to feed and house asylum seekers on Manus Island is suspected by its own bank of inflating invoices, while making millions of dollars in profits.

    The Department of Home Affairs awarded the contract, without competition, to a politically connected company, NKW Holdings. Leaked emails from NKW’s bank say the contract was a “much-needed lifeline” to the struggling company.

    The emails, leaked to The Age and Sydney Morning Herald from within PNG’s biggest bank, Bank South Pacific, suggest the Home Affairs department entered into a high-risk arrangement with NKW in September 2017, but did not sign a formal contract until a year later.

    This appears to have exposed Australian taxpayers to huge unnecessary costs imposed by a company that was on Bank South Pacific’s “watchlist” for unpaid debts at the time it was engaged by Home Affairs.

  14. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. I’ve pulled together a monster compilation for you today!

    An excellent essay from Waleed Aly on the bigger picture of Pell’s sentencing from which we should have discovered the difference between vengeance and justice.
    Theresa May will ask the EU to extend the Brexit deadline after MPs just voted overwhelmingly to agree an extension to Article 50.
    David Crowe is excoriating with his assessment of the government’s last week but says that the budget could provide Morrison with a launching pad for the election campaign.
    Katharine Murphy writes that the Morrison government, which is battling a persistent internal fracture on energy policy, is attempting to foment divisions between Labor and the union movement over the opposition’s 45% emissions reduction target in the run up to the election.
    Michael Pascoe tells us that hot on the heels of the Reserve Bank unequivocally calling out the financial danger of climate change, the head of the Home Affairs Department has listed it as a threat to national security.
    Greg Jericho goes into how new research from the Reserve Bank of Australia has revealed the extent of the impact interest rate cuts have had on house prices, rents and dwelling investment.
    Dana McCauley writes that employers have called for an effective wage freeze for low-paid workers, in a bold move that sharply contrasts with union calls for a 6 per cent increase and Opposition Leader Bill Shorten’s promise to legislate a “living wage” if he becomes prime minister.
    Fergus Hunter reports that Labor has played down expectations of a rapid and major overhaul of the National Broadband Network if it wins government, ruling out a “quick fix” and instead promising a responsible approach to the vexed $50 billion project.
    Richo reckons Morrison’s in for a rude awakening.
    Phil Coorey writes, “If you are in any doubt how the Coalition has misread the politics of climate change and how concerned the Liberals are about Victoria, look at the recent change in language and behaviour.” It’s every man for himself, he says.
    Judith Ireland tells us that the states have accused the Coalition of playing politics with the disability royal commission.
    The Parliamentary Budget Office has called into question whether longstanding net debt frameworks adopted under Coalition and Labor governments are appropriate. The Future Fund could be holding $70b of government net debt.
    I’d say Boeing’s in a spot of bother given this revelation.
    And Bloomberg is of the opinion that Boeing has already lost control of the narrative.
    Patrick Hatch with this example reminds us of the perils of taking on a franchise. Let’s see what the release today of the report from the parliamentary inquiry into the franchising industry.
    Adele Ferguson reckons the jig is finally up for the shameful franchise sector.
    And Shadow Minister Deb O’Neill writes that it’s time to restore confidence in the franchising industry. She says the current regulatory environment is just not working.
    Richard Baker reports that a Papua New Guinea company paid $82 million by Australian taxpayers to feed and house asylum seekers on Manus Island is suspected by its own bank of inflating invoices, while making millions of dollars in profits. Another mess on the Uber Tuber’s watch.
    And one of UBS Australia’s most lucrative financing deals is being investigated for possible breaches of Swiss law, after a controversial $1.2 billion loan to Papua New Guinea left the Pacific nation with heavy losses.
    Michael West concludes that when it comes to tax, it’s Virgin by name and Virgin by nature.
    The SMH editorial says that mortgage broker reform must not be kicked into touch. It concludes by saying that the backdown by Frydenberg sends a bad signal for how he plans to implement the other 75 recommendations of the Hayne inquiry. It will invite banks and other financial institutions to use all their lobbying power to water down and delay other measures.
    The Age reveals that a fire safety engineering firm blamed by VCAT for a flammable cladding blaze in Docklands also approved the Spencer Street tower that burnt last month.
    The John Curtain Institute declares that the case for a living wage has never been stronger.
    Stephen Bartholomeusz writes that the CBA, confronted by the costs and uncertainties permeating the wealth management sector, had no realistic option but to suspend its plan.
    Sarah Danckert explains how the head of the corporate watchdog has slammed the attitude of some senior bankers who have warned against strict new regulation, in a fresh sign the sector has not taken the Hayne royal commission seriously.
    Off-the-plan apartment buyers could be ‘out of the money’ by as much as 20 per cent as settlement falls due in coming months. Ouch!
    And Cait Kelly opines that Australia’s housing market is on track to experience a slump bigger than both the global finical crisis and the 1980s recession.
    Peter Hannam reports that the NSW government had prepared sweeping climate change policies to decarbonise the state’s economy only to have the plans shelved when Gladys Berejiklian became Premier.
    A former deputy director of the Nationals and a key lobbyist for the tobacco industry and Adani has emerged as one of the biggest donors to One Nation in the last six months.
    Billionaire developer Harry Triguboff’s company has launched legal action against Premier Gladys Berejiklian in an attempt to win approval to build a divisive residential tower in north-west Sydney.
    Michael Koziol explains how Malcolm Turnbull has warned the “idiocy” of a renewed fight over coal-fired power among federal MPs is damaging the chances of NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian as she fights the knife-edge state election.
    Meanwhile Peter Dutton, says the Morrison government should not be in the business of building coal-fired power stations, and has put a question mark over whether taxpayers should support upgrades to existing plants.
    Michelle Grattan writes that the Coalition is trapped in its coal minefield. She says It seems the government can’t take a trick on climate and energy policy – even the school children are reminding it of that.
    What do you do when the polls are against you and you don’t have a climate change policy? Start a fake internal war over coal, that’s what, says Dave Donovan,12469
    The terror of climate change is transforming young people’s identity.
    Jess Irvine tells us how a random audit of 300 tax returns of property investors has revealed widespread, worrying errors. The ATO has warned that property investors were now his “next focus”, following a successful crackdown on inappropriate work-related expenses.
    Jenna Price says that it’s not only the US where university admissions can be wangled.
    And now the college admissions bribery investigation that led to charges against 50 people, including chief executives and Hollywood celebrities, has placed a new focus on how US President Donald Trump’s son-in-law got into Harvard.
    Mistakes made by private call centre workers in Centrelink call centres could be putting people escaping domestic violence at risk, the main public sector union claims.
    The Catholic Church is investigating George Pell’s case. What does that mean? Canon law expert Ian Waters explores this question.
    Disgraced Cardinal George Pell has been given his sentence in the case of child sex abuse, with mixed reactions from the public, writes Dr Lee Duffield.,12465
    Was it a pig’s ear, a dog’s dinner or a cat’s arse? Yesterday was one of the May government’s worst political screw-ups, and that’s really saying something writes Nick Miller.
    One of Adelaide’s wealthiest and most prominent mining executives has had tens of millions of dollars in assets frozen as part of a federal police investigation. Dr Keith Robert “Bob” Johnson has been named as a suspect in a case brought by the Australian Federal Police under the Proceeds of Crime Act.
    US federal prosecutors are conducting a criminal investigation into data deals Facebook struck with some of the world’s largest technology companies, intensifying scrutiny of the social media giant’s business practices as it seeks to rebound from a year of scandal and setbacks.
    The head of the Australian Medical Association has warned celebrity chef Pete Evans should stick to cooking and not spread misinformation about vaccinations.
    The former leader of the far-right anti-Islam movement Australian Defence League has been sentenced to 12 months behind bars for his assault on a neighbour. Clearly a nominee for “Arsehole of the Week”.

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe and the state of Brexit and the UK.

    I can’t work out this one from Rowe.

    From Matt Golding.

    Glen Le Lievre with a view on the church.

    Andrew Dyson with the relationship between anger and justice.

    Jim Pavlidis and the student strike.

    And we have Cathy Wilcox on the same subject.

    Sean Leahy also.

    Rod Clement and the living wage.

    Mark David takes aim at a particular section of the media.

    We’ve now had a string of three reasonable cartoons from Zanetti!

    Jon Kudelka lines up Barnaby.

    From the US

  15. Lizzie,

    $3bill of this money is that which Abbott took off the table in 2014. Effectively, it’s a re-announcement of this situation. Andrews has asked in the past that this money be re-directed to the NE Link which is being built atm.

    As the article says, the Libs have been creamed twice on this issue. That Morrison and the Libs want to bat up again tells us they really have nothing to offer.

  16. swamprat

    Yes the UK if they want the WU to actually grant the extension they just voted for are going to have to give some reason and plan about what those three months are going to be used for.

    And another election would probably achieve nothing as far as resolving Brexit goes.

  17. Senate Rejects Trump’s Border Emergency Declaration, Setting Up First Veto

    The Senate on Thursday easily voted to overturn President Trump’s declaration of a national emergency at the southwestern border, delivering a bipartisan rebuke to what lawmakers in both parties deemed executive overreach by a president determined to build his border wall over Congress’s objections.

    The 59-41 vote on the House-passed measure sets up the first veto of Mr. Trump’s presidency. It was not overwhelming enough to override Mr. Trump’s promised veto, but Congress has now voted to block a presidential emergency declaration for the first time — and on one of the core promises that animated Mr. Trump’s political rise, the vow to build a wall between the United States and Mexico.

  18. Crikey

    Thunberg, who began solo protests in August last year, has been nominated by Norwegian Socialist MPs for launching a movement aimed at halting “wars, conflict and refugees” born from climate change. Her nomination comes as hundreds of thousands of young people will march across 1659 towns and cities in 105 countries today. For Australia, this will mean at least 56 separate strikes calling to stop the Adani-Carmichael mine, phase out existing mines, and transition to 100% renewables by 2030.

    The strike has been denounced by conservative politicians and News Corp publications — from The Australian’s ($) expose on the adult support that students are receiving, to The Daily Telegraph ($) quizzing anti-strike students on words misspelled at previous protests.

  19. The Australian federal police is losing its independence and integrity and must be separated from Peter Dutton’s home affairs portfolio, police union leaders have warned.

    The AFP was subsumed into the behemoth home affairs portfolio in late 2017, placing it under Dutton’s direct responsibility.

    But the Australian Federal Police Association, which represents 6,500 AFP members, now wants the change reversed, saying it has compromised the AFP’s organisational integrity and its ability to carry out investigations without government influence.

    The association president, Angela Smith, said the AFP has lost autonomy and is now the “poor cousin” in the home affairs portfolio. Smith said it was a feeling shared widely across the AFP, including in the agency’s senior ranks.

    “It’s an embarrassing situation,” Smith told Guardian Australia. “We look the least independent police force in Australia, surely the other police forces are laughing at us.”

  20. So my belief there would be no Brexit on 29th March was correct.
    The extension is now until 30th June
    So much to happen between now and then.
    Interesting times

  21. Victoria @ #30 Friday, March 15th, 2019 – 7:59 am

    So my belief there would be no Brexit on 29th March was correct.
    The extension is now until 30th June
    So much to happen between now and then.
    Interesting times

    If the Europeans say no to an extension then the Brits will be forced to pull the application to leave. This would mean they have to participate in the EU Elections.

  22. Thanks again, BK for your roundup.
    Richo’s comments about The Greens may be hinting at a premature death notice for them. Richo always needs to taken with some salt, but…The Greens have only got themselves to blame if their infighting in NSW and Vic take a toll on their Federal prospects. Public signs of disunity won’t mean political death for them but it is highly counterproductive and nobody else is to blame.
    Some Greens commentators, and their erstwhile critics on the Labor side in this blog are probably not indicative of the Labor-Greens relationship overall, but continued criticism of Labor allied with their own internal issues may, if the trend is your friend meme continues, be quite problematic.
    I am hoping The Greens hold their Federal HOR seats, at least, but what is needed is their strong presence in The Senate. I am sure the differentiation between the two Parties is defined clearly by now so , so continued displays of what has been called “virtue-signalling” or “purity” by some commentators is absolutely wasteful and regressive.
    I hope The Greens become an influential part of The Senate. We need the presence of another progressive Party. Let the diffentiation there be clear and influential, but not counterproductive. There is much healing and repairing to be done in our wounded nation.

  23. Trump is losing control: 12 GOP senators defect

    Meanwhile, overall, the wide margin of defeat for Trump is embarrassing to say the least, but entirely understandable. Trump’s border wall is unpopular with voters, and his declaration even more so. He’s the captain of a sinking ship, devoid of any post-tax-cut accomplishment (if one considers a very unpopular gift to the rich, on which Republicans couldn’t run in 2018, an “accomplishment”) and beset by scandal after scandal. In all likelihood, barring an act of political suicide by the Democrats (i.e., nominating an unelectable, self-described socialist), he’ll be out of office and facing prosecution in less than two years. And the Republicans who defended and enabled him? They’ll have gone down with the ship.

  24. Thanks BK!

    Form this one:

    ‘We’re seeing incorrect interest claims for the entire investment loan where it has been refinanced for private purposes, incorrect classification of capital works as repairs and maintenance, and taxpayers not apportioning deductions for holiday homes when they are not genuinely available for rent.”‘

    I’d like to see stronger guidelines and enforcement of the last of these issues.

    ‘”[W]hen you consider that rentals include over 2.1 million taxpayers claiming $47.4 billion in deductions, against $44.1 billion in reported income, you can get a sense of the potential revenue at risk,” Mr Jordan said.’

    Holy crap, no wonder we’re heading towards recession.

  25. BK @ #21 Friday, March 15th, 2019 – 3:36 am

    Fergus Hunter reports that Labor has played down expectations of a rapid and major overhaul of the National Broadband Network if it wins government, ruling out a “quick fix” and instead promising a responsible approach to the vexed $50 billion project.

    There’s nothing in that article about replacing the obsolete FTTN connections with something more future proof. The whole thing seems to be about making the network profitable so it can be flogged off.

    Less than happy.

  26. @KetanJ0
    2h2 hours ago

    80% of the Australian’s articles exist to reassure a group of dudes, all with the exact same phyiscal characteristics, that their current mode of immorality and self-interest is wholly justified.

    They’re wellness bloggers for old white guys suffering from cognitive dissonance.

    The Australian insisting that the student protest has been “organised by a network of adult activists.”

  27. Onebob…

    what is needed is their strong presence in The Senate.

    As long as the Gs strategy consists of opposing Labor 24/7 they will continue to lose support. The very best thing that can happen to them would be to lose a few Senate seats. NSW, Victoria, SA, Qld would be good. Their prefs can elect Labor Senators, as they never tire of pointing out. They might then recast their plans and their campaigns.

    They should take note that in the State where they are most amiable with respect to Labor, the State where they do not agitate against Labor all the time, WA, their polling is unchanged and is the highest in the country.

    However, on past experience, the Gs will not change course. They will continue to self-sabotage.

  28. BK, as always such a terrific contribution. Admire your efforts greatly.

    Looks like Morrison is going to try to run a scare on the minimum/ living wage issue. AM on Radio National this morning ran a lengthy story on it, with a lot of input from small businesses warning of the perils, and Bill Kelty indicating the raise should be phased in over time.

    Problem for the govt on this issue is they’ll be thoroughly wedged because stagnant wages is probably the touchstone issue in voterland at the moment, and if they’re against an increase, they again look like they’re on the side of the top end of town over the battler.

  29. Vogon Poet

    This is current situation….
    I see Italy being one who could refuse to grant an extension. That Matt Salvini is a fascist piece of crapola.


    scheduled date of March 29 amid dramatic scenes in the House of Commons.

    The vote came after Prime Minister Theresa May’s Withdrawal Agreement was rejected for the second time on Tuesday and MPs voted the following day to rule out a no-deal Brexit.

    A motion in May’s name, authorising her request for an extension to the two-year Article 50 negotiation process, was passed by 412 votes to 202 – a majority of 210.

    Prime Minister Theresa May leaving the Houses of Parliament after MPs voted to ask Europe for an extension on Brexit. (PA/AAP)
    Only a refusal by the leaders of the 27 remaining EU states to grant the UK an extension at a Brussels summit next week could now preserve the totemic date of March 29 as Brexit Day.

    May has made clear that she will press her Agreement to a third “meaningful vote” in the Commons by March 20 in the hope of securing the support of MPs who rejected it by 230 votes in January and 149 earlier this week.

    If she succeeds, she will go to Brussels next Thursday to request a short delay to a date no later than June 30, to give herself time to get her deal through the UK parliament.

  30. The belief system of the Christian right is utterly heretical. Jesus didn’t come to make us rich. Jesus wouldn’t bless the American empire, and the dropping of iron fragmentation bombs all over the Middle East. Jesus did not exalt the white race above other races. In fact, of course, Jesus was a person of color.

    Scott are you listening?.

  31. Regarding students striking for AGW …..

    Senator Fierravanti-Wellls and others have been hitting twitter about the serious wrongfulness of students absenting themselves from school for illegitimate reasons.

    But dear oh dear! Three big, rich, private, lefty schools in Sydney have come out in support of the strike …. Barker College and Santa Sabina are 2 and I forget the third. probably there are more to come now that the ice is broken.

  32. I’m hoping that I shall die before the worst effects of AGW are felt. That’s very selfish, I know, but I imagine how angry I would feel if I were a teenager and the “adults” were doing nothing to prevent disaster. Missing one day of school is nothing compared to the rest.

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