BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Labor

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate maintains its steady course overall, but with signs of the Greens losing ground.

Another fairly uneventful week in the world of BludgerTrack, which has only nudged 0.1% in favour of Labor on two-party preferred and one on the seat projection (the gain being in New South Wales), despite their one-point improvements in the week’s Newspoll and Essential Research polls. If there’s anything worth noting, it’s that the Greens have fallen below 9%, and One Nation are back up after a recent dip. Both pollsters also produced new numbers for the leadership trends, the only observable movement on which is that Scott Morrison’s net approval is slightly improving, for no immediately obvious reason. Full results through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,561 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Labor”

  1. Astrobleme

    Here is the exact text. I wonder whether you are even bothering to read the policies you are defending with such slipshod passion:

    ‘Closure of Australia’s ports and territorial waters to nuclear-powered or nuclear-armed vessels.’

    So, clearly, the policy line about closing facilities that facilitate the deployment of nuclear weapons must refer to something else.

    I have a suggestion for your consideration. As with many policies, the Greens are being deceptive here. Deliberately deceptive. What they mean is that they want to close Pine Gap and North-west Cape. They just don’t want to admit it in public because it will cost them votes.

    Anyway that is speculative. No doubt you will now be able to tell us all exactly what the Greens do mean about closing all those facilities.

  2. There will likely be two choices in a plebiscite – exit on the terms of the May/EU Deal (or a related version), and remain. The alternative to extension+plebiscite is to walk into a No Deal Brexit this month.

    The UK is a party to the Good Friday Agreement, which provides among other things that there will be no hard border on the island of Ireland. Much as they might wish to Brexit-and-be-damned, the UK cannot just abrogate a Treaty to which it a signatory. Like it or not, they are bound by this Agreement, which operates quite independently of the EU Treaty.

    Considering this, it’s quite possible that even a No Deal Brexit could be judicially challenged by Ireland; that the Brexit legislation could be nullified or its effect placed in suspension by the ECJ.

    I haven’t read anything on this and it’d be great to see some legal commentary.

    So far, the Irish have been playing to have Brexit handled within the political processes. But if these processes break down in a way that imperils the Good Friday Agreement, they would surely exercise their legal rights under that Agreement. Irish sovereignty is a legal reality whether the UK likes it or not.

  3. The HUGE question is whether the ERG and the DUP will come onboard and help May get her agreement over the line next Tuesday when she will put it up for a THIRD time. If she fails, we really are into long extension with the EU demanding a referendum or basically de facto membership of the EU (which will releave a lot of pressure on Corbyn regarding a referendum etc etc). But the ERG doesn’t want to vote for an agreement that will give the EU the whip hand and allow them to impose those terms anyway.

  4. Boerwar

    “As with many policies, the Greens are being deceptive here. Deliberately deceptive. What they mean is that they want to close Pine Gap and North-west Cape.”

    Well, yes. Likely that too.
    No, you are the one being deliberately deceptive, you were claiming they were shuttig down all ports and airfields.

  5. My hope is that the Europeans do either one of two things; preferably tell the UK that if they want an extension it’s a second referendum or bust. If not that, then a long extension and let the leave crowd self destruct.

  6. ab11
    The Speaker, under Standing Orders, may refuse to put May’s Deal up for the third vote, it having already been voted against twice.

  7. Boerwar

    Their policy is consistent with the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and the Canberra Commission on the Elimination of Nuclear Weapons.

    It’s nothing underhanded or deceptive.

  8. ‘Astrobleme says:
    Friday, March 15, 2019 at 1:25 pm

    Boerwar

    “As with many policies, the Greens are being deceptive here. Deliberately deceptive. What they mean is that they want to close Pine Gap and North-west Cape.”

    Well, yes. Likely that too.’

    Well, the Greens leaving us guessing on policy? How about that.

    ‘No, you are the one being deliberately deceptive, you were claiming they were shuttig down all ports and airfields.’

    Well, I was only speculating what the Greens might mean. But the speculation was based on the perfectly rational observation that ports and airports are facilities that enable the deployment of nuclear weapons.

    I patiently await your clarification of what facilities the Greens do mean when they mention ‘facilities’.

    Thus far you have

    1. Dissed the ports and airports idea despite the perfectly obvious point that they are facilities that can enable the deployment of nuclear weapons.
    2. Referred to ports bans for nuclear armed ships which was a red herring.
    3. Agreed with the speculation that the Greens might have meant closing Pine Gap and North West Cape.

    Over to you. What on earth DO the Greens mean?

  9. More shots have been fired in the last five minutes, according to police sources.

    Our reporter, who is with the police in Christchurch, heard as police were ordered over radio to attend another location in Christchurch to attend an active shooter situation

  10. ‘Sohar says:
    Friday, March 15, 2019 at 1:18 pm

    I agree with the striking students focusing their attention on Bill Shorten, they know that Scomo and Co will be gone by June.’

    Shorten the Saviour of Australia’s Kids!
    Excellent!

  11. “Well, I was only speculating what the Greens might mean. But the speculation was based on the perfectly rational observation that ports and airports are facilities that enable the deployment of nuclear weapons.”

    Oh so NOW you claim to be rational.
    I would say it’s no mystery the Greens want to close Pine Gap and NW Cape – both are used in drone killings and nuclear sub coms.

    “I patiently await your clarification of what facilities the Greens do mean when they mention ‘facilities’.”
    Any facilities that enable people to use Nuclear weapons. And no, you can use a nuke from a port, if you can’t dock your ship there. No, you can’t use an airport if we don’t let you land planes there.

    It’s really not complicated.

  12. briefly

    Good points on the EU Treaty and the Good Friday Agreement. You say

    …they (Republic of Ireland?) would surely exercise their legal rights under that Agreement.

    Which takes precedent? Which “court” has the power to decide? I don’t know how treaties work. Where would Ireland argue its case?

  13. Sally McManus can back the striking kids in… but Bill Shorten wants them ideally to do it on the weekend. What’s his problem ??

  14. I read one account (re Chch) where a woman hid in her car as 5 men came running towards her. This is not just one disturbed individual…looks planned .
    Love NZ where my family was welcomed all those years ago.

  15. I hope authorities respond in a way to calm things down. This has the potential to start retaliations. Ardern has a tough job today.

  16. Apparently the bloke is still active and on the loose. I say “bloke”, because the sick bastard live streamed the shooting to facebook. I kid you not.

    Be careful looking at social media results for this incident, as that’s how I stumbled upon it. You do not want to watch it, you cannot unsee it.

    If it’s genuine and the bloke is who it seems he is, he looks like a deranged racist who also posted some sick manifesto to 8 Chan.

    With the car bomb and what seems like the second shooting site, this really reminds me of Brevik.

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