BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Labor

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate maintains its steady course overall, but with signs of the Greens losing ground.

Another fairly uneventful week in the world of BludgerTrack, which has only nudged 0.1% in favour of Labor on two-party preferred and one on the seat projection (the gain being in New South Wales), despite their one-point improvements in the week’s Newspoll and Essential Research polls. If there’s anything worth noting, it’s that the Greens have fallen below 9%, and One Nation are back up after a recent dip. Both pollsters also produced new numbers for the leadership trends, the only observable movement on which is that Scott Morrison’s net approval is slightly improving, for no immediately obvious reason. Full results through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,561 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Labor”

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  1. From BK’s Roundup:

    Katharine Murphy writes that the Morrison government, which is battling a persistent internal fracture on energy policy, is attempting to foment divisions between Labor and the union movement over the opposition’s 45% emissions reduction target in the run up to the election.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/mar/15/morrison-government-seeks-to-divide-labor-and-unions-over-emissions

    There was an article in the Guardian yesterday about Angus Taylor’s work in that regard – or at least I saw a headline to that effect but skipped over it. Cognitive dissonance since then, but I believe I can now compose a reasonably lucid and coherent comment on this strategy.

    Here goes.

    What the actual fuck do they expect to achieve by writing to the unions and claiming Labor are going to eat their money? I suspect they may be attempting to emulate Ratty’s assumption of the allegiance of the Tasmania tree loppers in 2004, but even if they aren’t doing that, the absolute best they can hope for is that the unions snort derisively as they chuck the letter into the recycling.

    I think for the most part it shows how truly bereft of hope and ideas they are. And rightly so, they’ve been demonstrably hopeless since they’ve been in government.

  2. Good Morning

    Mr Shorten made a rare misstep on the optics about the Schoolchildren strike yesterday.

    Channel Nine highlighted a section.

    In a reasonable way people reacted.
    Yes that includes the Greens reaction.

    Mr Shorten will correct today but be in no doubt the contrast with Mr Daley on how he looked has had an impact.

    Of course the LNP thinks that means they can wedge Labor on the substance.
    Forgetting they just split their parties again over coal.

    This is a time Labor people need to eat a little humble pie and recognise the reason Mr Shorten is doing well is he is not pretending to be a saint. Acknowledge the mistake and move on.

    Not waste time attacking the Greens for understandably having a reasonable political reaction to that mistake.

  3. The good thing about discussing policy with the Greens is that you don’t have to take it seriously when they get personal.
    We are making progress.
    Not a single Greens now denies that their GMO policies will kill off the cotton industry in Australia. But then again, they won’t say that it will either. They will lose votes.

    Not a single Greens now denies that they intend to turn the ADF into a ‘Light Mobile Force’. But they are shy about saying that as well. They will lose votes.

    Not a single Greens now denies that the Australian Greens and the South Australian Greens have different uranium mining policies. The Australian Greens think that digging it up is not mining it and the South Australian Greens do realize that digging it is up is mining but that is OK because after it is mined it is unmined and stored safely for the next 10,000 years.

    So, we are making good progress in clarifying what the Greens mean when they say stuff about GMOs, the ADF, and even about uranium mining.

    Now, what about their policy on nuclear weapons? Here is exactly what the Australian Greens policy is:

    ‘Removal from Australian territory of all facilities which enable deployment of nuclear weapons.’

    What does that mean, actually?

    Do they mean airports because airports are self-evidently facilities that enable deployment of nuclear weapons? Ports? Railway systems? Comms systems? Mens Sheds? Just make it all up as you go along?

    What?

    Now the thing is this. The Greens are always telling everyone else how their policies are no good for one reason or another. But the Greens never, ever bother checking their OWN policy settings.

  4. I only have two relatives attending the Kid’s March Against Global Warming.

    They were busy at a neighbourhood sign writing event yesterday and will be trying out the signs today.

    I wish them well.

  5. The problem with the Greens on Uranium mining at Olympic Dam is that the Uranium mined has a market, so a new source would need to be found somewhere to meet that market.

    The net effect is your creating or upscaling a mine somewhere else.

    Additionally energy would be required to mine that ore, where that energy has already been expended at Olympic Dam.

    But that’s o.k.! Just as long as it isn’t in Australia.

  6. Andy Murray @ #150 Friday, March 15th, 2019 – 11:59 am

    Hey adrian,

    I used to post on LP regularly, albeit under a different pseudonym (maybe 5 or 6 pseudonyms ago). It was fun, but man, there were a lot of words posted.

    I know one of the more irregular posters on PB, Mick B. If ever you have a problem in quantum computational complexity answered, he’s your go-to man 😀

    Yeah it was fun alright, but it probably had its day. OTOH nobody seemed overly obsessed with the Greens.
    I wonder what happened to Mark, Helen, tigtog(?) and the other regulars.

  7. Here’s a quote worth thinking about ,

    Greg Jericho

    @GrogsGamut
    Was all set to bag Shorten but “In an ideal world, they would protest after school hours or on weekends but it’s a bit rich of the government to lecture school kids for going on strike on climate”

    Is not really him saying they should strike on the weekend

  8. Boerwar
    says:
    Not a single Greens now denies that they intend to turn the ADF into a ‘Light Mobile Force’. But they are shy about saying that as well.
    __________________________________
    What? Are the Greens proposing we dismantle all our Heavy Tank Divisions? This might have changed my vote. 🙂

  9. ‘MrMoney says:
    Friday, March 15, 2019 at 12:07 pm

    Here’s a quote worth thinking about ,

    Greg Jericho

    @GrogsGamut
    Was all set to bag Shorten…’

    Well, of course he was.

  10. I guess the Brexit thread has dropped off the radar. But rather than copy over my musings I’ll just say that the EU leaders plan to meet on the 21st (their time) to decide if they will accept Britain’s request for an extension. Also, I don’t think May has asked them yet, so there is still a question of what she will ask. (Very likely a short extension.) Then, if the EU say YES to a short extension, May gets to tell the UK parliament it is her way or hard Brexit, which is the default under the EU agreements. (May’s deal will be the least unpalatable, and should win.) If the EU says NO to any extension it is the same situation (May’s deal should win) but more urgent. If the EU gives the UK a long extension, who knows…

  11. Astro,
    I have in the past had rather good (positive?) arguments with BW. Recently, on population.

    As for mining, well I will only add that during the debate in SA over the Nuclear Waste Facility, in which I took great interest, I lost my distaste for uranium. Or maybe it was due to the radiation poisoning I got from working in the Montebello Archipeligo that frizzled my brains reasoning capacity.

    I still have a healthy distaste for coal mining after seeing what it did to the Hunter Valley and what it is in the process of doing to QLD.

  12. Big A Adrian says: Friday, March 15, 2019 at 11:59 am

    So *IF* and I acknowledge its a massive big “if”… but if it turns out that both the Lion Air and the Ethiopian Airline crashes were a result of pilots and/or their respective airlines not receiving adequate information and instructions on any necessary training from Boeing about the nose dive software “feature” – is there any other conclusion to be drawn other than to say Boeing have been criminally negligent?

    ***********************************************

    The FAA insists the Boeing 737 Max is still safe to fly. But in an unusual move, dozens of nations have rejected the agency’s recommendation, and are grounding flights, including the entire European Union, home of the world’s other top airline regulator.

    At least temporarily, it is a vote of ‘no confidence’ in the [FAA],” said Paul Hudson, the president of FlyersRights, a passenger rights organization, and a member of the FAA’s Rulemaking Advisory Committee.

    Like many US federal agencies under Trump, the FAA isn’t operating under optimal conditions to deal with a big issue like the two Boeing crashes. It hasn’t had a permanent top official for 14 months, the White House pushed gutting its employees and trimming budgets for two years in a row, and the recent government shutdown delayed officials’ approval of safety upgrades.

    https://qz.com/1571147/boeing-737-max-crisis-puts-spotlight-on-faa-under-trump/

  13. Ok, so the actual rare occurrence which I take out of this page on PB is guytaur saying Shorten made “rare” political misstep, because I haven’t heard guytaur give Shorten credit for a hill of beans since 2013.

  14. guytaur

    So the Greens and the Liberals (same-same) attack Shorten by twisting his words and it’s all Shorten’s fault.

  15. MrMoney

    Thank you for posting that. In all the ‘did didn’t did didn’t ‘ over it yesterday I did not see the actual words in question.

  16. LP allowed you to basically change your handle every time you logged in – and I frequently did!

    One of the reasons I settled for ‘zoom’ (which became ‘zoomster’ as a result of a site revamp which wouldn’t let me get in under me old moniker) was because I once adopted a very feminine name on LP and found myself being flirted with rather than being taken seriously. Worse, I started to adapt a bit of a fluttering eyelashes persona myself, as an almost automatic response.

    I think ‘mehitabel’ ended up being my moniker of choice, though.

  17. LR

    Yep, more or less. As far as anyone knows!

    The situation is fraught because a couple of EU countries are starting to mutter things like eff the Brits and they may well vote against an extension just to get rid of the UK. It will only take one or two of the 27 and that will be that.

    That aside, and since approving or disapproving an extension is optional, the response to the request is potentially subject to negotiation.
    In other words, the EU has choices about going back to the UK and having conditional approval. The conditions might spell out Referendum 2, for example.

  18. Wow

    The Labor partisans truly think Mr Shorten walks on water and can’t see the contrast with what Mr Daley said.

    This after saying it looks bad. Not that I believe Mr Shorten is weak on the rights of children to have their voice heard.

    I made very clear I was talking about how it looks.

  19. “The good thing about discussing policy with the Greens is that you don’t have to take it seriously when they get personal.
    We are making progress.”

    Ohhh good God where to start!

    “Not a single Greens now denies that their GMO policies will kill off the cotton industry in Australia.”
    Really? when did that happen!?

    “Not a single Greens now denies that they intend to turn the ADF into a ‘Light Mobile Force’. ”
    Actually this is true, because it is described as such in the policy.BUT what it represents is Boerwar drifting to the truth. Previously the claim was that they were going to disband the military altogether, so I am happy Boerwar has got this far.

    “‘Removal from Australian territory of all facilities which enable deployment of nuclear weapons.’”
    The ships/planes. etc. See NZ.

  20. The Gs will at all times and in all places put a negative construction on anything Labor says or does. This is their gig. This partly accounts for their sinking polling. The Gs are self-sabotaging.

  21. Paul Krugman on robots with a bit of ‘the bleeding obvious’ re wage stagnation . Bonus fact,young Paul must have watched a bit of Dr Who 🙂
    Use incognito, Outline does not seem to be working on the NYT at the moment.

    Don’t Blame Robots for Low Wages
    Progressives shouldn’t fall for facile technology fatalism.

    ………..But while there have always been some victims of technological progress, until the 1970s rising productivity translated into rising wages for a great majority of workers. Then the connection was broken. And it wasn’t the robots that did it.

    What did? There is a growing though incomplete consensus among economists that a key factor in wage stagnation has been workers’ declining bargaining power — a decline whose roots are ultimately political…………………. robots in that sense have been transforming our economy literally for centuries. David Ricardo, one of the founding fathers of economics, wrote about the disruptive effects of machinery in 1821!……………………….. Let’s back up for a minute, and ask: What is a robot, anyway? Clearly, it doesn’t have to be something that looks like C-3PO, or rolls around saying “Exterminate! Exterminate!”

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/14/opinion/robots-jobs.html

  22. I’m still guessing a hard brexit.

    An election or a referendum will tear both the Tory and Labour Parties apart. They can’t afford that. Holding either is likely to be the only thing significant reason for the EU to grant an extension.

    Accepting the currrent May offer will involve over 70 MPs changing their vote in the next week. Possible but unlikely.

    They can blame the EU for a hard brexit.

  23. Simon Katich

    “Astro,
    I have in the past had rather good (positive?) arguments with BW. Recently, on population.

    As for mining, well I will only add that during the debate in SA over the Nuclear Waste Facility, in which I took great interest, I lost my distaste for uranium. Or maybe it was due to the radiation poisoning I got from working in the Montebello Archipeligo that frizzled my brains reasoning capacity.”

    Indeed I have read many debates between Boerwar and others, it’s just when he talks about Greens Policies, he just goes a bit haywire. He makes ludicrous claims, that are really easy to dismiss.
    My thoughts is he’s trying the whole ‘If you make a lie big enough, they will believe it’ trick.

    anyway I am going to keep posting the facts.

    I am, personally, ambivalent about Uranium. It is toxic and dangerous like , but is less toxic than a lot of substances.

    I do think that the time of nuclear power is now over anyway. Uranium prices have collapsed after Fukushima and we had about 8 years of Liberals in WA where people could open Uranium mines… Guess how many opened. My company worked on the water supply for the Kintyre and Centipede deposits and in both cases they didn’t go ahead because there’s no money in it.

  24. Barney

    “The problem with the Greens on Uranium mining at Olympic Dam is that the Uranium mined has a market, so a new source would need to be found somewhere to meet that market.”
    well… I guess someone else will supply it; it’s not like there’s a massive shortage.
    The prices have been dropping since Fukushima
    https://www.focus-economics.com/commodities/energy/uranium

    There’s little demand and we had 8 years of Libs in WA and no one opened a U-mine. Because they were not profitable.

  25. Big A Adrian says:
    Friday, March 15, 2019 at 11:59 am

    So *IF* and I acknowledge its a massive big “if”… but if it turns out that both the Lion Air and the Ethiopian Airline crashes were a result of pilots and/or their respective airlines not receiving adequate information and instructions on any necessary training from Boeing about the nose dive software “feature” – is there any other conclusion to be drawn other than to say Boeing have been criminally negligent?

    It seems, from what I read after the Indonesian crash, that a major issue is in classifying it as a 737 and not a new concept.

    This ultimately made the aircraft more attractive to existing 737 users because pilots could rated more quickly and cheaply.

    The larger engines and the positioning of the wings seem to make it very different in how it behaves relative to other 737s.

    Ultimately any fault would be shared with the regulator who accepted Boeing’s arguments that it was a 737.

    This in no way discounts the software control issues which belong to Boeing.

  26. Swamprat – the EU will be desperate to avoid a hard brexit. Leaving aside the economic damage, it has backed Ireland to the hilt for two years. It will not abandon Ireland now and allow a hard border. That would be totally insane.

  27. swamprat @ #183 Friday, March 15th, 2019 – 11:26 am

    I’m still guessing a hard brexit.

    An election or a referendum will tear both the Tory and Labour Parties apart. They can’t afford that. Holding either is likely to be the only thing significant reason for the EU to grant an extension.

    Accepting the currrent May offer will involve over 70 MPs changing their vote in the next week. Possible but unlikely.

    They can blame the EU for a hard brexit.

    I agree that the most likely outcome is still a Hard Brexit, and as you say, they (the Brexiteers) will just blame the EU. The EU will have caused the “difficulties”, the EU are intransigent, “It shows why we are better off out of the EU”, and so on. And later when the crap really starts the EU can be blamed all over again. For their part the EU will just say, “Sorry. This is what you wanted. Now please go away.”

    Huh. I didn’t start out writing it quite that negatively, it just came out.

  28. Boerwar @ #159 Friday, March 15th, 2019 – 11:08 am

    ‘EU leaders will reportedly allow Theresa May to delay Brexit only if she agrees to hold a second referendum or soften her withdrawal deal.’

    Hm. Pell in jail, Manafort in jail, kids striking for the climate, May humiliated and no-deal Brexit ruled out, Trump’s fake emergency threatened by an almost veto-proof majority, and now this.

    An impressively good March so far, and it’s only half over. 🙂

  29. antonbruckner11 @ #191 Friday, March 15th, 2019 – 11:32 am

    Swamprat – the EU will be desperate to avoid a hard brexit. Leaving aside the economic damage, it has backed Ireland to the hilt for two years. It will not abandon Ireland now and allow a hard border. That would be totally insane.

    The mood I sense is that they are fed up with Ireland being held hostage. I hope you are right though.

  30. Dan Gulberry

    A similar tack was used re live sheep/cattle exports a few years back. Yes our animals were subjected to at times inhumane conditions but we must keep doing it or even worserer people than us would do it.

  31. a r

    I agree with all your good news except Brexit. I think a Hard Brexit is the default if negotiations don’t settle on something else.

  32. Guytuar
    The Greens misrepresenting what Shorten said underlines what the Greens have become, nothing more snd nothing less.

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