Ipsos: 51-49 to Labor

The first Ipsos poll for the year produces a much stronger result for the Coalition – but another poll finds them struggling in Queensland.

The first Ipsos poll of the year for the Nine newspapers is the best for the Coalition of the five published under Scott Morrison’s prime ministership, with Labor’s lead cut from 54-46 to 51-49 since the December poll. The Coalition gains two on the primary vote to 38% while Labor slips four to 33% (albeit that the last result was something of an outlier, as Ipsos leans on the low side with primary votes for both major parties). The Greens meanwhile are steady on 13%, a characteristically high result for them from Ipsos. The two-party figure is presumably based on 2016 election preference flows – we should have a result for respondent-allocated preferences later (UPDATE: 51-49 on respondent-allocated preferences as well).

There is little corresponding movement on leadership ratings: Scott Morrison is up two on approval to 49% and up one on disapproval to 40%, Shorten is down one to 40% and up two to 52% (relatively positive results on leadership ratings being a further peculiarity of Ipsos), and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister shifts from 46-37 to 48-38. The poll was conducted from a sample of 1200 from Tuesday to Friday, which makes it an imperfect measure of the impact, if any, of the parliamentary vote on asylum seekers on Tuesday.

The same goes for the other poll this weekend, a Queensland-only affair on federal voting intention by YouGov Galaxy for the Courier-Mail (state voting intention results from the poll can be found in the post below). The news here for the government is bad, with Labor recording a 52-48 lead on two-party preferred, which represents a 6% swing in that state since the 2016 election, and compares with a 50-50 result at the last such poll in November. The primary votes are Coalition 35% (down three on the last poll, compared with 43.2% at the 2016 election), Labor 34% (steady, compared with 30.9%), Greens 10% (up one, compared with 8.8%) and One Nation 8% (down one, and they only ran in a few seats in 2016).

The poll also has a question on the party with the “better plan on border security and asylum seekers” which finds the Coalition leading 44% to 29%, which is a par-for-the-course result for such a question. The poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 810.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,918 comments on “Ipsos: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. Steve777:

    Which is the same MO for the Republicans, but the trickle down agenda is failing them too.

    – Trump’s tax cuts gave at best a sugar hit to the economy, which is fading fast.
    – The laissez faire attitude to environmental regulation isn’t cutting it with voters who want to see stronger protection laws, including action on AGW.
    – Kickbacks for mates has unravelled numerous members of Trump’s cabinet, and we’ve already seen the same lazy approach taken to public accountability by Liberals wrt the GBRF and now Paladin, among others in the recent past which escape me.

    Their agenda might be standing up for the over privileged with a sprinkling of boganville to help the ordinary workers feel they care about their interests. But in today’s volatile political environment, how sustainable is that platform really?

  2. HaveAChat
    The escalation was so dramatic with each victim that I find it hard to believe Jack the Ripper just stopped voluntarily, rather than moving, being caught for something or getting sick/dying.

  3. Sir William Gull, the Queen’s surgeon is considered to be a suspect as was Walter Sickert who was a famous artist. I can’t think of a serial killer who was famous or even well-known before they got caught.

  6. I think I’ve figured out the reason the Coalition got a poll bump. They actually managed to do something successfully. They freed Hakeem.

  10. itsthevibe
    says:
    Sunday, February 17, 2019 at 7:47 pm
    Am I really the only one suspects that it was franking credits, as opposed to boats, that caused this?

    I think franking is the most likely issue to cause Labor damage. Not enough to lose mind you.

    But this poll is heavily at odds with the QLD Galaxy, so far outside MOE (ALP +6 to ALP +1) that one of them must be wrong. Perhaps I am prejudiced (sorry QLD), but I would expect them to be more reflexive on boats.

    The Galaxy has a smaller sample, but history has taught us that Ipsos is full of shit.

    Just a word on MOE. It does not mean that a poll can be +/- 3% (or whatever) either way in linear terms. It means that when you place a statistical bell curve over the sample that 95% of the curve will be +/- 3% (or whatever) accurate (in touch with reality). As you increase the sample size the width of the bell curve narrows. But the bell curve insists that in all likelihood the accuracy of the poll is ‘probably’ better than the 3% (or whatever), because the +/- 3% is at the outer edges of the curve, which is not linear.

    That only works if your method of taking and weighting the sample is reliable.

  13. Steve777 @ #158 Sunday, February 17th, 2019 – 9:14 pm

    In the past, I regarded the Federal Government, whoever was in power, as fairly free of corruption. There were bad apples, but on the whole, the Federal Government, politicians and public service, were fairly honest. State Governments were a different matter, with examples of systemic corruption infesting several states. Meanwhile, dodgy dealings abounded at local level.

    Things are different now. I believe that our current and hopefully soon to be gone Federal Government is corrupt to the core. I believe that many of our big corporations, especially in the mining and construction sectors, are little better than organised crime.

    I’m sad to say it but I really agree, Steve

  16. Dandy Murray,

    I would prefer the Galaxy to be at least 1000 sample size, and to be honest it does surprise me a bit (in favour of the ALP), but far less than the Ipsos, which surprises me a lot more, and has a historical habit of being crap.

  17. Next Newspoll will be 51/49 to the ALP as the can’t be trusted on boarder security and they will let the people smugglers back in business

  20. Its funny, Abbott supporters say the Getup Poll which puts him 54-46 behind is crap, now here they say the Ipsos Poll is crap. Lets hope both are on the money. Will be a move in the right direction.

  21. Wayne says:
    Sunday, February 17, 2019 at 10:52 pm

    Next Newspoll will be 51/49 to the ALP as the can’t be trusted on boarder security and they will let the people smugglers back in business

    I didn’t realise there was such a problem with people renting rooms in other people’s houses! 😆

  24. Ipsos polls since the last Federal election:
    24-26 Nov 2016: 51% ALP
    22-25 March 2017: 55% ALP
    10-11 May: 53% ALP
    6-9 Sept: 53% ALP
    3-5 April 2018: 52% ALP
    10-12 May: 54% ALP
    21-24 June: 53% ALP
    15-18 Aug: 55% ALP
    12-15 Sept: 53% ALP
    10-13 Oct: 55% ALP
    15-17 Nov: 52% ALP
    13-15 Dec: 54% ALP
    Current Feb 2019: 51% ALP

    PREDICTION:
    Next Ipsos poll: 54% ALP!

  25. My understanding is that based on the IPSOS poll you can be 95% certain that the current position falls somewhere between 54/46 and 48/52. Apart from that you have to look at all recent polling to obtain a guide as to where the real situation sits.

    Given all the recent polling I don’t believe this poll is an outlier but has just come up with a result at lower end of expectations for Labor.

    Unless some of the experts are aware of some inherent problem with the methods used by IPSOS.

    My gut tells me Labor will not end up with a 2PP result at the election at the higher end of current polling but they will win comfortably.

  30. “Next Newspoll will be 51/49 to the ALP as the can’t be trusted on boarder security and they will let the people smugglers back in business”….

    But Wayne, why are you so scared of predicting a 51% to the Coalition in the next Newspoll?…. Lost faith in your beloved party?

  31. People wanting to stop brown people on boats vote to cut education, health and welfare, more privatisation, more corruption, the dismantlement of Medicare and the ABC, continued inaction on climate change, environmental destruction and neglect, continued attacks on the vulnerable and no wage growth.

    Way to go – not.

  32. That’s right Davidwh, but it is a curve, and the 95% certainty is where it starts to level off. It is most likely to be within 1%, slightly less likely it within 2%, much less likely within 3%, and beyond that it has gone rogue (outside 95%).

    It is difficult to digest both these polls as simply MOE.

  33. Question in essence the two polls are sampling different populations although IPSOS does include QLD as part of their sample, they have different timeframes although again IPSOS does include part of the timeframe and they have different sample sizes and MOE’s.

    It’s also possible one poll errs in a different direction to the other.

    Also, although less likely, it is possible the apparent loss of support for the Coalition has been offset by a gain elsewhere if there have been special circumstances in QLD or elsewhere that impacted on the polling. We just don’t know.

    We have to be patient and wait for the next round of polling which will likely show little has changed from around 53/47 thereabouts.

  34. Thank you David, I thought I had broken the internet 🙂

    It may be that QLD has had other things to think about, and will fall into line with the “ALP broken border” soon enough. I doubt it.

    I have noticed you expect the ALP to win, as an ALP partisan my opinion on the matter is prejudiced, but I also expect them to win, I’m bored waiting.

  35. taylormade @ #173 Sunday, February 17th, 2019 – 6:31 pm

    grimace says:
    Sunday, February 17, 2019 at 8:14 pm

    Have you come across unsolicited proposals in your work such as the Transurban West Gate Tunnel project in Vic before.
    Obviously no tender process in place with that one.

    I very much doubt any such proposal, assuming it was of reasonable detail, would be “unsolicited” in any meaningful sense of the word. What I do see are a lot of brain farts, the totality of which are a glossy brochure, a snazy computer generated video and a flashy sales pitch

    I’m not familiar with the project and can’t speak for what was presented by the proponent. If it was a “ready to sign and we can start next week” type proposal then it would likely have cost tens of millions, if not hundreds of millions to develop to that stage. In other words, it would not have been unsolicited in any meaningful sense of the word.

  36. davidwh sunday 11.04pm

    “My understanding is that based on the IPSOS poll you can be 95% certain that the current position falls somewhere between 54/46 and 48/52. Apart from that you have to look at all recent polling to obtain a guide as to where the real situation sits.”

    Just to be technical…its 95% confident not certain…. the true number is either in the interval you quote or not..the confidence is in the repetition of the procedure not in any one interval constructed around a sample proportion…the rest of your argument regarding other polling is correct
    cheers

  37. This might sound a bit weird from a partisan, but I would actually prefer the ALP to win comfortably rather than in a landslide. I don’t think having a bunch of unexpected winner MP’s is very useful.

  39. Wayne says:
    Sunday, February 17, 2019 at 10:52 pm
    Next Newspoll will be 51/49 to the ALP as the can’t be trusted on boarder security and they will let the people smugglers back in business–

    Well I hope those “boarders” sleep well tonight Wayne after they pay their food and board. Meanwhile in border security land I’m not buying your parrots story.

  40. Ima yes my mistake. Confidence is the correct term, not certainty. I would have edited but at present I’m not logged in.

    Question not only do I think Labor will win but we need Labor to win and I agree with comfortable but not landslide.

  41. And this on the front page of the FIN REVIEW screaming in big black print —

    BREAKING: IPSOS POLL: COALITION CLOSE IN ON LABOR 51-49.
    By Phillip Coorey
    Feb 17, 2019

    “The Morrison government has moved to within striking distance of Labor in the latest The Australian Financial Review-Ipsos poll, which shows the gap has closed to where it was before the party moved against Malcolm Turnbull”.

    Oh goody, it was great idea to get rid of Turnbull and we gonna get them bloody Labor commies again.

    Oh dear- delusion is a sad thing to see writ large across a ‘respected’ conservative rag.

  43. My fault for not saying “confidence” davidwh, which I should have on my high horse of bell curves and statistical norms.

    I don’t think it would be good for Labor to have too many MP’s sitting on traditionally conservative seats. Maxine McKew springs to mind. I mean… I like her… but I’m not sure whether she helped the ALP in the end.

  46. The worst government in history is re-elected on 1 complete charade of a policy,then the voters need to go into a mental institution.After that there is no hope for this country.

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