The first Ipsos poll of the year for the Nine newspapers is the best for the Coalition of the five published under Scott Morrison’s prime ministership, with Labor’s lead cut from 54-46 to 51-49 since the December poll. The Coalition gains two on the primary vote to 38% while Labor slips four to 33% (albeit that the last result was something of an outlier, as Ipsos leans on the low side with primary votes for both major parties). The Greens meanwhile are steady on 13%, a characteristically high result for them from Ipsos. The two-party figure is presumably based on 2016 election preference flows – we should have a result for respondent-allocated preferences later (UPDATE: 51-49 on respondent-allocated preferences as well).
There is little corresponding movement on leadership ratings: Scott Morrison is up two on approval to 49% and up one on disapproval to 40%, Shorten is down one to 40% and up two to 52% (relatively positive results on leadership ratings being a further peculiarity of Ipsos), and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister shifts from 46-37 to 48-38. The poll was conducted from a sample of 1200 from Tuesday to Friday, which makes it an imperfect measure of the impact, if any, of the parliamentary vote on asylum seekers on Tuesday.
The same goes for the other poll this weekend, a Queensland-only affair on federal voting intention by YouGov Galaxy for the Courier-Mail (state voting intention results from the poll can be found in the post below). The news here for the government is bad, with Labor recording a 52-48 lead on two-party preferred, which represents a 6% swing in that state since the 2016 election, and compares with a 50-50 result at the last such poll in November. The primary votes are Coalition 35% (down three on the last poll, compared with 43.2% at the 2016 election), Labor 34% (steady, compared with 30.9%), Greens 10% (up one, compared with 8.8%) and One Nation 8% (down one, and they only ran in a few seats in 2016).
The poll also has a question on the party with the “better plan on border security and asylum seekers” which finds the Coalition leading 44% to 29%, which is a par-for-the-course result for such a question. The poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 810.
Dear old Fairfax matching each event to each poll, poll by poll, as usual. Finding significance wherever they feel like it. They must go through some emotional rollercoasters.
I wouldn’t trust this Ipsos poll, being that it’s the first poll, and they had qld state one Labor leading.
It will be an outliner like the Essential poll was.
Plus with all the issues in QLD/NSW is having…
I was proved right that Paul Murray will be bagging that the coalition are back in the mix to win the next election by a landslide
I don’t want them I will leave Australia if he gets back in
Or people are really as dumb as Americans…
Jack the Ripper speculation has nothing on the JFK assassination. Up to 2000 books have been written from a pro conspiracy angle.
The last time I let myself get worried about an Ipsos was… hmmm… many years ago.
Worse than Morgan. At least no-one pretends Morgan is serious.
Andrew Earlwood doesn’t know who Jack the Ripper was, but he is pretty sure that he was a socialist.
In the past, I regarded the Federal Government, whoever was in power, as fairly free of corruption. There were bad apples, but on the whole, the Federal Government, politicians and public service, were fairly honest. State Governments were a different matter, with examples of systemic corruption infesting several states. Meanwhile, dodgy dealings abounded at local level.
Things are different now. I believe that our current and hopefully soon to be gone Federal Government is corrupt to the core. I believe that many of our big corporations, especially in the mining and construction sectors, are little better than organised crime.
Tristo
I have been dismayed, stunned, ashamed, and other negatives, listening to our government discussing people as if they were cattle. Mr Porter today being interviewed on Insiders is a recent example.
Just sitting here, I’m hearing yet another taxpayer-funded political ad, about tax this time, on the TV nearby.
I know our ALP friends will be outraged, as is any opposition; but all parties have a history of this when in government.
A modest proposal: legislate so that in the year before the House expires, or the year in which a half-Senate election is due, or at any time when there is a vacancy in the House or it has been dissolved, any government broadcast ads (radio, TV, video on social media) should only be permitted with the concurrence of the Leader of the Opposition. Details to be worked out. Exceptions only for natural disasters and other emergencies, again, details to be worked out.
This would help to stop a pernicious practice in its tracks.
The Liberals are kind of at similar crossroads as the Republicans. Getting more and more extreme, infiltrated by know-nothings who want to coast on the party’s coat-tails because they know they can draw a good salary and pension. They are great at fighting ideological culture wars that are anathema to everyday people, but have no clues about policy development or what good government looks like.
Like the GOP the LNP will need to suffer big losses if the party is to recover itself and come back to basics. I cannot see how the current model of preselecting cookie cutter male staffers, friends of a friend, or family members to safe seats with no actual policy agenda to speak of is a sustainable model for the foreseeable future.
The question for me is, what does today’s Liberal party stand for?
Steve777
says:
I believe that many of our big corporations, especially in the mining and construction sectors, are little better than organised crime.
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I realised this back in the 1990s when public phone booths stopped giving you change. What a terrific rort that was!
Same here. Ken Henry always talked up probity, good governance and public accountability, and you could see that kind of arms-length administration even in the early PM Abbott years.
But something has happened in the APS the last few years. It’s like the people who are running govt agencies and agency departments have either forgotten, or have no idea about separation of administrative and governing powers.
@Steve777
If a lot of corruption is exposed among past and existing Coalition politicians by a federal ICAC Labor is promising to introduce, it could destroy both the Liberal and National Parties. What could replace the Coalition parties it could be very scary, such a party openly advocating a return to some form of the White Australia Policy and the Stolen Generations is a possibility.
This drift towards what could be seen as alt-right ideology, in the Coalition parties has a been gradual process. It started with John Howard co-opting aspects of One Nation policy, accelerated during Tony Abbott’s time as leader of the party and gone into overdrive with Scott Morrison’s Prime Ministership. I argue we as a nation have gone beyond the Trumpian stage (Abbott was the closest this nation could produce to a Donald Trump and the parallels between both men are eerie)
I think the Paladin thing will play out much worse for the Coalition that the Great Barrier Reef Foundation, mainly because the second has a ‘feel-good’ name and cause for what it’s worth.
On Jack the Ripper, for many years I enetertained the thought that some clever data cruncher would crunch all know data about everyone in London at the time and come up with a perfect answer. Of course the problem is the data – it would be impossible to even know accurately London’s population at the time.
These days JtR would probably give themselves away by posting cryptic but revealing comments on Twitter, Facebook or Pollbludger!
Rocket Rocket @ #164 Sunday, February 17th, 2019 – 9:23 pm
It would be really exciting for PB if Diogs was the Ripper!
Actually if JtR existed today he’d have had his phone and internet data intercepted by authorities. 😀
“Record numbers of NHS staff quitting due to long hours
Number of nurses leaving the service almost triples – at a time of more than 40,000 nursing vacancies”
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/feb/17/nhs-staff-quit-record-numbers-work-life-balance
That’s OK, we can just fill these 40,877 unfilled nursing vacancies with EU nurses ……….. Oh sh*t!!!
Its amazing that refugees in real danger in places like Syria and Iraq, no-one seems to worry about them on this site, and the focus is on the economic refugees in Manus and Nauru who have cost the Australian Taxpayer billions which could have been spent on schools and hospitals in this country. There are reports, refugees who have moved from Manus and Nauru to the US now want to come back to Manus and Nauru because everything is free such as food and healthcare rather than work hard in the US and fend for themselves.
Confessions, I think what someone stands for and how they further it are different, and different again from why they stand for that thing.
For the Liberals I tend to come back to one simple naked desire, power. It could be money. It might be authority. But power is at the core, and it is us who give them power. We do it in ignorance, in blind trust, in fear or despair, or in collusion for a share of power. (The latest sloganeer in Ryan says “maintaining your lifestyle”.)
To answer your question, they stand for whatever it takes. (Morrison’s pentacostilism is an example.)
Rocket
I just can’t wait for the explanation about how Paladin gets a huge contract while registered at a KI beach shack.
I guess these days the government doesnt pay by cheque.
Whole thing smacks of bottom of the harbour and more recent scams where unemployed people, drug addicts, pensioners etc found themselves as directors of companies that had gone bankrupt owing millions.
And has anbody done a search to find who owns the shack?
@Confessions
Honestly, I don’t know what will exactly happen to the Liberal Party after this federal election. It could either split and/or one faction is going to take over fully control of the party. My bet is on the reactionary right to full take control of the party. Because the membership of the party, especially it’s youth divisions are increasingly reactionary. Only NSW as far as I know does not have local branch not controlled by the reactionary right.
I am betting even a big defeat will just convince the Liberal Party caucus and members that they weren’t ideologically pure enough. Also coming to think Peter Dutton should have been made leader instead of Scott Morrison. I predict the Liberal Party will resemble One Nation a lot in say two or three years, with heavy filtration with alt-right ideology. That will certainly reduce support for parties such as One Nation, Australian Conservatives, United Australia Party and Katter’s Australia Party.
grimace says:
Sunday, February 17, 2019 at 8:14 pm
Have you come across unsolicited proposals in your work such as the Transurban West Gate Tunnel project in Vic before.
Obviously no tender process in place with that one.
Rex Douglas says:
Sunday, February 17, 2019 at 8:26 pm
Late Riser @ #105 Sunday, February 17th, 2019 – 8:22 pm
Rex Douglas
It absolutely stinks to high heaven …and someone like Keneally should be handed the brief to prosecute front centre stage, not Neumann.
Maybe. But Bandt and those independents better get cracking.
Hang on… weren’t a lot of the Labor partisans here claiming ownership of the amendments only a day or so ago ?
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Speaking for myself, I was arguing that it was a joint production of the whole of the cross-bench (sans Katter) plus Labor plus the Greens. I was also arguing that the government was singling Labor out to receive all the crap it was coming up with – as though the others had no role at all. And, apart from Kerryn Phelps, the others have not been particularly vocal defending their role and the vote in the media.
Rocket Rocket @ #165 Sunday, February 17th, 2019 – 9:23 pm
I subscribe to the “second blade” theories – i.e. if you analyze the angle of all the knife wounds, it is clear there must have been a second “ripper” on the grassy knoll!
Thanks Grimace…. very insightful posts………. when dealing with other peoples money…. in the case of Paladin the taxpapers …… you need to be extra careful….. no money to Shonky applicants with a questionable reputation who cannot do the job….. in my small way when dealing with only hundred’s of dollars on a voluntary basis I have been much more careful than when dealing with my own money
michael, are you saying everyone on Manus and Nauru should be brought to Australia so they can work hard?
Late Riser:
The ‘whatever it takes’ attitude has gotten the Republicans where they are today, no longer able to claim the party which believes in small government, or is willing to uphold the constitution. They wanted their religious fundie court appointments and are backing President Man Baby all the way through every one of his toddler tantrums to get them, likely even going down with him.
I can see a similar fate awaiting the Liberals, esp as they become less and less representative of voters.
Player One @ #174 Sunday, February 17th, 2019 – 9:33 pm
Exactly! It was Lee Harvey Diogs.
rhwombat, thank you for the link. I got some insight into your profession.
https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/curiosity-and-the-prisoner
Belief, trust, wonder, hope, and their opposites I think have always been part of us. Religion has a fertile soil. Perhaps doctors are the latest priesthood. 🙂
@Confessions
I believe the Liberals will shift towards a more protectionist (Economic Nationalism) as it moves into One Nation territory. Also advocating massive cuts to immigration and maybe proposing bans on further Muslim immigration.
Michael
“There are reports, ……”
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Unsourced alleged reports are the bread and butter of racism and hatred.
Tristo:
One could argue the reactionary right already has full control of the Liberal party. In fact someone already has.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/feb/17/the-moderate-liberal-mp-is-extinct-howard-subjugated-them-years-ago
Michael,
If they found to have legitimate claims for asylum it can not be for economic reasons.
Therefore your labelling of most of the people on the islands as economic refugees is highly defamatory and offensive.
The cost of keeping them there is not their fault, but that of successive Governments who decided that’s how they would be handled.
The KI beach shack now looks like this…
@Confessions
I agree, I was arguing that the NSW branch is the only one which is not totally under the control of the reactionary right.
Wasn’t one of the prime suspects the Queen’s surgeon? Hmmm. A time travelling Jack the Ripper? It’s been done heaps of times:
Tristo @ #179 Sunday, February 17th, 2019 – 6:39 pm
It’s scary isn’t it? I have hope that if they can suffer a large enough loss then self-interest will prevail and those left will do the necessary soul searching to bring the party back to some semblance of sanity.
Apparently this picture of recently sacked (from the LNP) Queensland MP Jason Costigan with his mate Brad Burden (Berejiklian’s director of strategy) is creating angst among the NSW Coalition. Because it was taken a few days after Burden’s (mis)management of the Wagga Wagga by-election debacle, and Burden obviously didn’t hang around to face the music.
https://outline.com/DXmbZA
The Ruddock line was to criticise the supporters of those on Manus and Nauru for not doing enough about Rohingya.
He had no basis for saying that.
Simon² Katich® @ #183 Sunday, February 17th, 2019 – 6:42 pm
On my bucket list! There are a number of other Luxury Lodges around the country I’d love to try, including the one at Ningaloo and the one in Tasmania.
Barney in BT
The cost of keeping them there is not their fault, but that of successive Governments who decided that’s how they would be handled.
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Talk about cognitive dissonance. We are discussing here right now the extraordinary process by which a contract of almost half a billion dollars was given to a mob called Paladin to provide ‘services’ for asylum seekers and refugees on Manus and someone pipes up about the money spent on these asylum seekers and refugees.
The really terrible thing is that so much of this money is actually spent on contracting, administration and the people who are fortunate enough to secure these contracts. How much actually flows through to demonstrable benefits for the people themselves.
SK
I can’t wait for the day the Keystone Cops, having tipped off the media, raid the KI shack looking for documents.
Confessions @9:17 PM. “The question for me is, what does today’s Liberal party stand for?”
As always, it is the political wing of Big Money, Corporate Australia. They don’t want to pay tax and don’t want to be regulated, they hate organised labour and want their property rights and contracts to be protected. All the stuff about boats, the scare campaigns, the dogwhistling and culture war stuff is just to get the numbers.
Shellbell says:
Sunday, February 17, 2019 at 9:45 pm
The Ruddock line was to criticise the supporters of those on Manus and Nauru for not doing enough about Rohingya.
He had no basis for saying that.
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Ironically, Rohingya refugees in Malaysia would have been the direct beneficiaries of the Malaysian people swap deal that Ruddock voted against in Parliament because nothing mattered as much as keeping the boats coming!
I supposedly met the grandson of the Ripper’s target whilst travelling in Spain.
According to him she was a high class prostitute who became pregnant to the Prince of Wales and the Ripper was an inept plot to get rid of her and the baby.
😆
Well,that Ipsos poll was a bit of frisson. 🙂 Good night all.
Michael @9:28.
“…and the focus is on the economic refugees in Manus and Nauru who have cost the Australian Taxpayer billions which could have been spent on schools and hospitals in this country.”
It’s costing billions because the Government had chosen an absurdly exoensivecapproach to dealing with the issue. Blithering incompetence.
As for schools and hospitals, pull the other one. As far as the “Liberals” are concerned, every dollar spent on a public school pupil if a public hospital patient is a dollar that can’t be given to a wealthy retiree, an elite private school or a mining mate.
Sorry Michael, “Boats” don’t work here.
TPOF
How so?
What part did the asylum seekers have in the decision to process them on the islands?
BiBT
Sorry. Not you. I realised after I posted that it was not clear.
I was talking about another poster a little earlier who was bemoaning the billions of dollars spent on keeping the boat arrivals on Manus and Nauru.