The addition of this week’s Newspoll and Essential Research polls have ended a period of improvement for the Coalition in BludgerTrack, which records a solid shift to Labor this week. Labor’s two-party lead is now 53.8-46.2, out from 53.1-46.9 last week, and they have made two gains on the seat projection, one in New South Wales and one in Queensland. Despite that, the Newspoll leadership numbers have resulted in an improvement in Scott Morrison’s reading on the net approval trend. Full results are available through the link below – if you can’t get the state breakdown tabs to work, try doing a hard refresh.
National polling news:
• A poll result from Roy Morgan circulated earlier this week, although there’s no mention of it on the company’s website. The primary votes are Labor 36%, Coalition 34.5% and Greens 12.5%, which pans out to a Labor lead of 54-46 using past preference flows (thanks Steve777). Morgan continues to conduct weekly face-to-face polling, but the results are only made public when Gary Morgan has a point to make – which on this occasion is that Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party is on all of 1%. One Nation doesn’t do great in the poll either, recording 3%. The poll was conducted over two weekends from a sample of 1673.
• The Australian had supplementary questions from this week’s Newspoll on Tuesday, which had Scott Morrison favoured over Bill Shorten by 48-33 on the question of best leader handle the economy – little different from his 50-32 lead in October, or the size of the lead consistently held by Malcolm Turnbull. It also found 33% saying the government should prioritise funding of services, compared with 27% for cutting personal income tax and 30% for paying down debt.
• The Australian also confused me by publishing, together with the Newspoll voting intention numbers on Monday, results on franking credits and “reducing tax breaks for investors” – derived not from last weekend’s poll, but earlier surveys in December and November (UPDATE: Silly me – the next column along is the total from the latest poll). The former found 48% opposed to Labor’s franking credits policy and 30% in support, compared with 50% and 33% when it was first floated in March (UPDATE: So the latest poll actually has support back up five to 35% and opposition down two to 38%). Respondents were instructed that the policy was “expected to raise $5.5 billion a year from around 900,000 Australians that receive income from investments in shares”, which I tend to think is friendlier to Labor than a question that made no effort to explain the policy would have been. The tax breaks produced a stronger result for Labor, with 47% in favour and 33% opposed, although this was down on 54% and 28% in April (UPDATE: Make that even better results for Labor – support up four to 51%, opposition down one to 32%).
With due recognition of Kevin Bonham’s campaign against sketchy reports of seat polling, let the record note the following:
• Ben Packham of The Australian reports Nationals polling shows them in danger of losing Page to Labor and Cowper to Rob Oakeshott. Part of the problem, it seems, is a minuscule recognition rating for the party’s leader, one Michael McCormack.
• There’s a uComms/ReachTEL poll of Flinders for GetUp! doing the rounds, conducted on Wednesday from a sample of 634, which has Liberal member Greg Hunt on 40.7%, an unspecified Labor candidate on 29.4% and ex-Liberal independent Julia Banks on 16.1%. That would seem to put the result down to the wild card of Banks’ preference flows. There was apparently a respondent-allocated two-party figure with the result, but I haven’t seen it. UPDATE: Turns out it was 54-46 in favour of Greg Hunt, which seems a bit much.
• The West Australian reported last weekend that a uComms/ReachTel poll for GetUp! had Christian Porter leading 52-48 in Pearce, which is above market expectations for him.
• Another week before, The West Australian reported Labor internal polling had it with a 51.5-48.5 lead in Stirling.
Preselection news:
• Following Nigel Scullion’s retirement announcement last month, the Northern Territory News reports a field of eight nominees for his Country Liberal Party Senate seat: Joshua Burgoyne, an Alice Springs electrician, who was earlier preselected for the second position on the ticket behind Scullion; Bess Price, who held the remote seat of Stuart in the territory parliament from 2012 to 2016, and whose high-profile daughter Jacinta Price is the party’s candidate for Lingiari; Tony Schelling, a financial adviser; Tim Cross, former general manager of NT Correctional Industries; Gary Haslett, a Darwin councillor; Kris Civitarese, deputy mayor of Tennant Creek; Linda Fazldeen, from the Northern Territory’s Department of Trade, Business and Innovation; and Bill Yan, general manager at the Alice Springs Correctional Centre.
• Andrew Burrell of The Australian reports Liberal nominees to succeed Michael Keenan in Stirling include Vince Connelly, Woodside Petroleum risk management adviser and former army officer; Joanne Quinn, a lawyer for Edith Cowan University; Michelle Sutherland, a teacher and the wife of Michael Sutherland, former state member for Mount Lawley; Georgina Fraser, a 28-year-old “oil and gas executive”; and Taryn Houghton, “head of community engagement at a mental health service, HelpingMinds”. No further mention of Tom White, general manager of Uber in Japan and a former adviser to state MP and local factional powerbroker Peter Collier, who was spruiked earlier. The paper earlier reported that Karen Caddy, a former Rio Tinto engineer, had her application rejected after state council refused to give her the waiver required for those who were not party members of one year’s standing.
• The Nationals candidate for Indi is Mark Byatt, a Wodonga-based manager for Regional Development Victoria.
Dubbs
Indeed. No problems.
Dubbs @ #539 Saturday, February 16th, 2019 – 9:45 pm
I believe this is what’s left after they extract as much of the usable uranium as they profitably can. If, instead, they extracted just the other metals but left all the uranium, it would end up more radioactive.
‘Sheep Nation’ refers to Matthew 25 – the parable of separating the sheep, who treat the less fortunate well, compared with the goats who don’t. Paladin CEO Dave Hodgson refers to Matthew 25 in his biography https://8thmountain.com/team/dave-hodgson/
Interestingly, Matthew 25 also contains the parable of the bags of gold, which is one of the touchstones of the prosperity doctrine… and the 10 virgins parable
https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Matthew+25&version=NIV
Now just speculating here, but some Home Affairs/Immigration Officer quite high up, could be familiar with Paladin, through Hodgson’s mixture of commerce and religion, and got pitched a solution to who would run Manus after Transfield left. Probably didn’t think through the consequences…
steve777:
You didn’t respond to my aforementioned post. I will say again, though, that I’m very happy that you’re so happy.
C@tmomma @ #528 Saturday, February 16th, 2019 – 9:30 pm
Back to the middle ages style theocracy. Spanish inquisition and witch drownings to be part of the Morrison Government’s new policy? If Shorten and Gillard thought the questions were rigged at the Liberal rigged RC’s, they ain’t seen nothing yet…
Dog’s Breakfast
😆 Close to a checkmate !
Mavis Smith @ #541 Saturday, February 16th, 2019 – 9:46 pm
I was talking generally, not specifically. I have not noticed anyone failing to make legitimate points because of the new regime – they just do it a bit more civilly.
Player One,
I agree it would be more radioactive, but that it’s not important in this context. The radioactivity is not the really ‘bad’ or ‘ dangerous’ aspect of what goes into the TSF.
I work as a hydrogeologist, we have a lot of experience with TSFs. They’re awful. Making it slightly more awful isn’t going to do anything. I gave a link earlier that detailed the liquor going into the TSF. It’s very nasty, pH 1.5 with lots of Arsenic and other metals. A bit more radioactive stuff won’t mean a thing
Yabba
Thanks for that.
Prob explains why the aphrodisiac bit was unconfirmed rumour
sprocket_ @ #9847 Saturday, February 16th, 2019 – 9:57 pm
Doubt it. I still think they needed someone who could keep up the PNG black money after the Bougainville fiasco. Hodgson was, by then, a fixer not a SF Operator. Quick and dirty was the watchword.
Dogs Breakfast,
No one could beat the piss-ups at the Pharmacy BBQs in the early 80s. We had access to pure Ethanol and our Punch was dy-nam-ite! 😀
Mavis: “You didn’t respond to my aforementioned post. I will say again, though, that I’m very happy that you’re so happy.”
Sorry I didn’t think that a response was needed. My post was just a bit of trivia after a few beers. But I’m happy that we’re all happy.
Astrobleme @ #558 Saturday, February 16th, 2019 – 10:01 pm
That’s fine as long as it stays in the tailings dam, but not if it gets into the environment. Given how often tailings dams burst/leak/overflow, I’m for extracting as much of the “useful” nasty stuff as possible.
Isn’t it interesting how these devoutly religious types don’t blink an eye when it comes to ripping off the nation?
They’ve got a passage in the Bible for that. 😉
Meanwhile in the West, a bit of casual racism from a State MP..
sprocket_ @ #565 Saturday, February 16th, 2019 – 7:08 pm
Looks like they spelt his surname wrong. Should be a L instead of the H.
Player One:
[‘was talking generally, not specifically. I have not noticed anyone failing to make legitimate points because of the new regime – they just do it a bit more civilly.’]
Fook the civility. Old William has turned this site into a site of has-beens, fearful of saying the “wrong thing”, reticent of going against the grain.
Rhwombat
A possible theory, but the $20m a month is not ‘quick and dirty’ Angus Grigg from the AFR reckons the Paladin operation in Manus was costing around $3m a month – meaning that $17m odd, a month, was surplus. Grigg did say the PNG government wanted some of the action, local landholders had to be looked after – but still quite some $millions left over
No idea yet who the panel is.
sprocket_ @ #568 Saturday, February 16th, 2019 – 10:13 pm
It would all make a great splash in the middle of the campaign 🙂
As we continue with the passage, “for I was hungry and you gave Me food; I was thirsty and you gave Me drink; I was a stranger and you took Me in; I was naked and you clothed Me; I was sick and you visited Me; I was in prison and you came to Me.’” – Matthew 25:35-36
That sounds very Socialistic. The neoliberal version would read something like:
“I was hungry / thirsty and you told me to stop bludging and get a job,
I was a stranger and you exiled me to an island hellhole,
I was naked and you condemned me publicly for lewdness and exploited me in private,
I was sick and you cut my benefits and told me to stop bludging and get back to work,
I was in prison and you blasted the judicial system for lenience in sentencing.”
But if that’s what’s required, neoliberals are going to Hell.
C@tmomma @ #464 Saturday, February 16th, 2019 – 7:53 pm
Spaetlese is a German grade of sweetness, and Gewurztraminer is a grape variety (sultana), so not actually comparable. The most used grape for german wines is Reisling, followed byMuller-Thurgau and Sylvaner.
The sweetness grades of German wine go Trocken(dry), Kabinett, Spaetlese, Auslese, Trocken-Beeren Auslese, Eiswein (super sweet). Prices go up from dry to super sweet. Trocken Beeren Auslese wines are made from grapes that have already dried on the vine. Eiswein is made from such grapes which are picked in the very early morning, after a heavy frost, so that their are ice crystals in the juice which can be filtered out, further concentrating the juice. I worked in the early 1970’s at a vineyard/winery at Alzey, near Koblenz in Germany, and had the experience of picking eiswein grapes. The resulting wine is exceptionally sweet, and quite expensive, about $50 per half bottle.
P1, The incidence of tailings dam mishaps in Australia are extremely rare. Tailings emplacement management is very serious business, and mining companies spend a lot of coin getting this right. Any cowboys that didn’t seriously manage the risks associated with tailings dams wold have been rubbed out a long time ago,
Also Australia is mostly flat, and most of the tailings dams are not dams like the recent VALE experience where a breach can cause something akin to the movie “Dambusters”
Mavis Smith @ #567 Saturday, February 16th, 2019 – 10:13 pm
I don’t see that. You just have to avoid the “You are … no, you are …” type of inane nonsense that this blog sometimes descends to. That adds nothing to any argument.
However, even if some people do feel a bit constrained, presumably this is the way William prefers it. And, I have to say that I do too.
No idea where you’re getting this from, but from my perspective the only thing that has changed is the insufferably boring to and fro exchanges with the baiters.
And nobody misses those.
Ah memories….University of Newcastle early 80’s…The publican at the Sunnyside hotel in Georgetown, would have bottles of the Royal Reserve Port already gift wrapped in brown paper bags…I still to this day have never been able to enjoy a good port after a meal without an almost Pavlovs Dog reflex to be violently ill…
Dubbs @ #573 Saturday, February 16th, 2019 – 10:22 pm
Perhaps. But accidents do happen … like this one …
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/work-suspended-after-dam-collapses-at-australia-s-largest-gold-mines-20180310-p4z3s7.html
No prizes for guessing what Christian Porter’s chosen subject for his rant, er interview with Barrie Cassidy will be.
Mark Davis @poromark
has helpfully posted the Paladin contract on the Internet.. it is 200+ pages and looks legit.
So people can make up their own minds, or for those who have not been able to find a copy, THE PALADIN CONTRACT (redacted by Home Affairs) is here: FOLLOW THE LINK at @poromark
Steve
Classic.
I am not particularly religious but was raised a Catholic and try to live by what I was taught as basic Christian principles.
That passage from Matthew always comes to mind when I hear so called Christian Tories denouncing the less fortunate.
P1 not to trivialise the event but….
…A resident living closer to the mining operation told Fairfax Media that the northern tailings dam wall had breeched, sending tailings material into the southern tailings dam. The source said emergency protocols had been put in place and local roads had been closed….
So it would seem that the Cadia event did not result in any effluent discharge into the surrounding environment…
C@t, did you ever attend an Inter-College Garden Party? Just out on No 1 oval near the Pharmacy Building. We drank a mixture of Stout and cheap Sparkling White which was called “Black Velvet” . Promenades around the oval to the music of a Brass Band. Much falling down!
Some of the comments are interesting on this Paladin article
https://theaimn.com/refugees-as-business-the-paladin-group-contract/
Goll @ #485 Saturday, February 16th, 2019 – 7:18 pm
Goll
I was there then. Not that the police were ever called but our parties went on all night – every Friday and Saturday i recall
We probably crossed paths. Were you politically active.
Dubbs @ #581 Saturday, February 16th, 2019 – 10:36 pm
That might be some comfort if they knew why the first dam failed, and could guarantee the same might not happen to the second one. But it seems they don’t. If you have any information, by all means post it – I’m off to bed but will read it tomorrow.
Re Rossmcg @10:33: “I am not particularly religious but was raised a Catholic and try to live by what I was taught as basic Christian principles.”
Religion is a funny thing. The stuff we were taught about how to live with our fellow humans stuck. Do unto others, etc. I may not have followed it consistently but I believe it. As for the supernatural stuff, that was lost on me, it never made sense.
As for the authoritarian strands of Christianity (a.k.a. the Religious Right), they seem to worship Zeus, or maybe Moloch. Keep in his good books and he’ll look after you and smite your enemies. You don’t actually have to be good, just declare your allegiance and follow a few simple rules.
Now if we are talking russian interference in the USA, and many here are all in for presecution, impeachment and hang drawing and quartering everyone who ever looked up Russia on an atlas, what penalty for these guys.
Now this is interference in the affairs of another nation. Not possibility, not supposition, not forced from people via blackmail and plea bargin, but caught on bloody tape!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I wonder what else the Russian overheard but did not release.
Anyway Pots and kettles in the USA.
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/51107.htm
What a bunch of vile incompetent toads govern us!
The Government was left wounded and threshing about after they lost the vote in the House on the Refugee Bill.
The Liberals’ initial line of obfuscation immediately thereafter, was to go on the attack, on the argument that the passage of the Bill would result in a flood of new Asylum Seekers arriving, and it was all Labor’s fault.
This argument of course had no logical basis, as the Bill applied only to refugees already in detention, although the Libs persisted with this nonsense for a day or two, even in the face of the very words of the legislation, and of course there was nothing to support or substantiate this line.
They changed tack when the twitter-verse jeered at them, and some of the more senior Journalists, including Grattan, Bongiorno and Murphy, called them out on their patent lie.
They then flirted for a day or so with the idea of offering inducements to people smugglers to recommence operations, virtually declaring to them that the borders would be open, but very soon realized that this clumsy attempt would only rebound on them without evidence, as they were a tad too obvious, and the Australian public were a tad smarter than they took them for and saw it for what it was.
Their next brilliant idea was to reopen the Christmas island detention centre at horrendous cost, to accommodate the expected refugee influx, and blame the unnecessary expense on Labor, asserting, with much lamentation and sorrow, that the money so spent could have been better spent of schools, hospitals, etc. for “real” Australians. Which begs the question of course, that if they had the money for Christmas Island, why couldn’t they have already spent it on schools, hospitals etc. for “real” Australians. This whole proposition didn’t therefore float with the public (or at least with the Lib focus groups).
They then prevailed on their media friends (or perhaps the media friends didn’t need to be prevailed upon) to revert to their initial claim, and provide some evidentiary support for their position regarding the imminent human flood.
This resulted in two clumsy, flimsy, and frankly, risible, articles appearing.
The first was a report of a single inhabitant of an unidentified small Indonesian islet claiming that hordes of People smugglers had formed that intention, although he had not actually spoken to, or had any communication with them. But he was a fisherman, you know …
The second was today’s horse manure generated by Liberal flunkey -in -chief James Massola, and some other nonentity in the SMH stable, that an invasion was being organised by an unnamed Pakistani Mafioso, who apparently had control of the whole people smuggling industry world wide. Curious that young James could contact him, but ASIO, the AFP and Interpol can’t.
This approach too has run its course, and disappeared without a trace by mid morning.
What’s next in this Monty Python anthology on Good Governance?
On the Terrorgraph online site headline:
NEWS CORP EXCLUSIVE. Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s video message to asylum seekers which will be translated into 15 languages and distributed to asylum-seeker hotspots in the coming weeks.
PM to people smugglers: ‘You will not succeed’
Exclusive Prime Minister Scott Morrison has a stern warning for people smugglers and those attempting to come here illegally: “You will not succeed.” Mr Morrison issues the warning in a video to be translated into 15 languages and aired in 10 countries.
So Morrison admitting he will be responsible for boat arrivals if any ‘get through’. Doesnt say jackshit about airports of course.I thought these people were “illegal” too.
Jaeger says:
Saturday, February 16, 2019 at 9:06 pm
Surely that should be a Whiskey O’,
a Whisky Mac would be made with Scotch not Irish. 🙂
“Johnny, step on my toes.
Go on Johnny, step on my toes.
MUM! MUM!! Johnny stepped on my toes!!!”
#anyonebutnats
The Nats candidate for Barwon has declined this opportunity to talk to the people of Barwon in Narrabri due to unspecified business IN SYDNEY! They never learn do they. #putthenatslast #nswpol #rustedoff #itsoktosaynotothenats #matesanddonors
Look at the hit parade of invited speakers here… The Nats candidate was too busy to bother. This grass roots mob plan a similar campaign for the Federal election.
“Anyone But Nats believes that the voice of regional people in NSW needs to be heard loud and clear once again.
Our primary role … is to convince a majority of people in each regional electorate to ‘put the Nats last’ and thus turn our electorates into swinging seats that all political parties and alliances respect. The Nats are wholly beholden to big mining, big business, and the Liberals. Because we are no longer important to the Nats, we all miss out.
Many thousands of people across regional NSW are deeply disappointed in the Nats, particularly the elected representatives, who have become arrogant in the way they neglect, reject, ignore and overlook us.
We choose clean air, clean water, and clean energy, and we demand that our communities and towns have their fair share of the State’s funding, we shall end up with properly resourced schools, hospitals, TAFEs, roads, and infrastructure.
Anyone But Nats is registered with the NSW Electoral Commission as a ‘third party organisation’ not affiliated with, or nor do we endorse, any political party or candidates.”
https://www.anyonebutnats.com.au/volunteer
This won’t help the NATS in the State election and give us a heads up on what to expect in the Federal election to follow-
Will the SFF and PHON make the mess of the NATS some are expecting in NSW ?
According to Antony Green on Feb 10th —
“ The unconventional races being run in rural seats of NSW will be the likely deciders of the election. Increasingly the two-party contest has broken down in NS. What we’re now seeing is contests between Labor and the Greens, Liberals and the Greens, Nationals against independents, even Nationals against the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party. This election will not be decided on an overall state vote — the key will be in seat-by-seat contests..it is going to be decided in a bunch of rural seats where the swings will be erratic [seats like Lismore, Tweed, Upper Hunter, Myall Lakes and Ballina]. It promises to be quite a close contest, and it’s also highly likely we won’t know who the government is at the end of election night”.
Elliott Abrams, who was part of Reagan Administration and actively supported Gautamelan dictator, was the nominee for special envoy to Venezuela, was questioned vigorously in US Congress and there was outrage for such questioning in US media. Following is Elliott Abrams role
https://www.thenation.com/article/upside-genocide/
Fantastic test match in South Africa. Sri Lanka put on 78 for 10th wicket to win.
Leon @ #595 Saturday, February 16th, 2019 – 10:37 pm
Yes that was fabulous batting. Perera the toast of Sri Lanka tonight.
Queensland State Polling
ANNASTACIA Palaszczuk’s performance during the summer of fire and floods has helped her increase her lead over Deb Frecklington as Queenslands preferred premier.
The latest YouGov Galaxy Poll, conducted exclusively for The Sunday Mail, has revealed Ms Palaszczuk’s high-profile performance during extreme weather events has earnt kudos from Queenslanders.
However, the Premier’s increase was a far cry from the surge Anna Bligh received after the 2011 cyclone and floods, which won her plaudits across the country.
And Ms Palaszczuk’s performance has failed to inflate Labor’s lowly primary vote which slipped below the level the party achieved at the 2017 state election.
Meanwhile, Ms Freckington has endured the opposite with satisfaction with her LNP leadership declining while the party’s vote inched forward despite the pervading influence of the federal Coalition government and its calamities.
The poll of 810 Queenslanders taken last week found 47 per cent of voters preferred Ms Palaszczuk, compared to 43 per cent late last year.
Ms Frecklington increased from 26 per cent to 27 per cent, with one in four voters still uncommitted about either of the major party leaders.
Satisfaction with Ms Palaszczuk’s performance remained at 46 per cent, but dissatisfaction increased. Satisfaction with Ms Frecklington sank from 35 per cent to 31 per cent, while dissatisfaction rose 6 per cent.
With weather dominating the news and State Parliament in recess, the LNP Leader has struggled to cut through with issues over the summer season. Many State LNP MPs blame their colleagues in Canberra for their failure to dent Ms Palaszczuk’s popularity. However, personal support for the Premier is not translating into extra votes for Labor.
According to the YouGov Galaxy Poll, Labor’s vote shrank to 35 per cent from 36 per cent in November. The LNP vote increased from 34 per cent to 35 per cent. One Nation dropped to 8 per cent after storming to 23 per cent before the last election and achieving 13.7 per cent at that poll.
https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/queensland-government/queensland-politics-annastacia-palaszczuk-increases-lead-in-polls-over-deb-frecklington/news-story/9348291e9e10019830b92e670d2c9b6d
The Courier-Mail has published state results from the YouGov Galaxy poll, but they don’t include a two-party result, at least in the online version.
Sorry WB. Didn’t mean to steal your thunder re QLD Poll. My guess nothing much to see. Margin of error stuff. No mid term slump for QLD Labor though.
Once (if) Shorten is elected things might get tougher for Palaszczuk. Queenslanders hate Canberra – it’s in our DNA.
Sitting here with my back having major conniptions. Anyhoo this thought occurred to me. Katharine Murphy had a piece in the Guardian this week stating that Sir Moron is not Trump. No he’s not, he’s worse. Trump is a nutter and dangerous, Sir Moron is a religious nutter which makes him doubly dangerous. I wouldn’t trust the barsteward as far as I could throw him. I don’t know what is going to happen during the election campaign but I reckon it’s going to get ugly. Sir Moron will do and say anything to retain power, after all he was apparently chosen by his god to “lead” us.