BludgerTrack: 53.8-46.2 to Labor

A lurch back to Labor in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, plus further polling tidbits and preselection news aplenty.

The addition of this week’s Newspoll and Essential Research polls have ended a period of improvement for the Coalition in BludgerTrack, which records a solid shift to Labor this week. Labor’s two-party lead is now 53.8-46.2, out from 53.1-46.9 last week, and they have made two gains on the seat projection, one in New South Wales and one in Queensland. Despite that, the Newspoll leadership numbers have resulted in an improvement in Scott Morrison’s reading on the net approval trend. Full results are available through the link below – if you can’t get the state breakdown tabs to work, try doing a hard refresh.

National polling news:

• A poll result from Roy Morgan circulated earlier this week, although there’s no mention of it on the company’s website. The primary votes are Labor 36%, Coalition 34.5% and Greens 12.5%, which pans out to a Labor lead of 54-46 using past preference flows (thanks Steve777). Morgan continues to conduct weekly face-to-face polling, but the results are only made public when Gary Morgan has a point to make – which on this occasion is that Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party is on all of 1%. One Nation doesn’t do great in the poll either, recording 3%. The poll was conducted over two weekends from a sample of 1673.

• The Australian had supplementary questions from this week’s Newspoll on Tuesday, which had Scott Morrison favoured over Bill Shorten by 48-33 on the question of best leader handle the economy – little different from his 50-32 lead in October, or the size of the lead consistently held by Malcolm Turnbull. It also found 33% saying the government should prioritise funding of services, compared with 27% for cutting personal income tax and 30% for paying down debt.

• The Australian also confused me by publishing, together with the Newspoll voting intention numbers on Monday, results on franking credits and “reducing tax breaks for investors” – derived not from last weekend’s poll, but earlier surveys in December and November (UPDATE: Silly me – the next column along is the total from the latest poll). The former found 48% opposed to Labor’s franking credits policy and 30% in support, compared with 50% and 33% when it was first floated in March (UPDATE: So the latest poll actually has support back up five to 35% and opposition down two to 38%). Respondents were instructed that the policy was “expected to raise $5.5 billion a year from around 900,000 Australians that receive income from investments in shares”, which I tend to think is friendlier to Labor than a question that made no effort to explain the policy would have been. The tax breaks produced a stronger result for Labor, with 47% in favour and 33% opposed, although this was down on 54% and 28% in April (UPDATE: Make that even better results for Labor – support up four to 51%, opposition down one to 32%).

With due recognition of Kevin Bonham’s campaign against sketchy reports of seat polling, let the record note the following:

Ben Packham of The Australian reports Nationals polling shows them in danger of losing Page to Labor and Cowper to Rob Oakeshott. Part of the problem, it seems, is a minuscule recognition rating for the party’s leader, one Michael McCormack.

• There’s a uComms/ReachTEL poll of Flinders for GetUp! doing the rounds, conducted on Wednesday from a sample of 634, which has Liberal member Greg Hunt on 40.7%, an unspecified Labor candidate on 29.4% and ex-Liberal independent Julia Banks on 16.1%. That would seem to put the result down to the wild card of Banks’ preference flows. There was apparently a respondent-allocated two-party figure with the result, but I haven’t seen it. UPDATE: Turns out it was 54-46 in favour of Greg Hunt, which seems a bit much.

• The West Australian reported last weekend that a uComms/ReachTel poll for GetUp! had Christian Porter leading 52-48 in Pearce, which is above market expectations for him.

• Another week before, The West Australian reported Labor internal polling had it with a 51.5-48.5 lead in Stirling.

Preselection news:

• Following Nigel Scullion’s retirement announcement last month, the Northern Territory News reports a field of eight nominees for his Country Liberal Party Senate seat: Joshua Burgoyne, an Alice Springs electrician, who was earlier preselected for the second position on the ticket behind Scullion; Bess Price, who held the remote seat of Stuart in the territory parliament from 2012 to 2016, and whose high-profile daughter Jacinta Price is the party’s candidate for Lingiari; Tony Schelling, a financial adviser; Tim Cross, former general manager of NT Correctional Industries; Gary Haslett, a Darwin councillor; Kris Civitarese, deputy mayor of Tennant Creek; Linda Fazldeen, from the Northern Territory’s Department of Trade, Business and Innovation; and Bill Yan, general manager at the Alice Springs Correctional Centre.

Andrew Burrell of The Australian reports Liberal nominees to succeed Michael Keenan in Stirling include Vince Connelly, Woodside Petroleum risk management adviser and former army officer; Joanne Quinn, a lawyer for Edith Cowan University; Michelle Sutherland, a teacher and the wife of Michael Sutherland, former state member for Mount Lawley; Georgina Fraser, a 28-year-old “oil and gas executive”; and Taryn Houghton, “head of community engagement at a mental health service, HelpingMinds”. No further mention of Tom White, general manager of Uber in Japan and a former adviser to state MP and local factional powerbroker Peter Collier, who was spruiked earlier. The paper earlier reported that Karen Caddy, a former Rio Tinto engineer, had her application rejected after state council refused to give her the waiver required for those who were not party members of one year’s standing.

• The Nationals candidate for Indi is Mark Byatt, a Wodonga-based manager for Regional Development Victoria.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,132 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.8-46.2 to Labor”

Comments Page 13 of 23
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  1. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    The London Daily Telegraph says that Trump is gearing up for the next hammer blow to global trade. He’s barking mad!
    Meanwhile Angela Merkel has turned her fire on America’s “home alone” policies, saying multilateral bodies cannot simply be smashed up, and warned the US president, Donald Trump, that Europe must not be excluded from discussions on future nuclear disarmament, Syria or trade.
    Rick Goodman tells us that Bill Shorten has questioned the sincerity of Senator Michaelia Cash’s court evidence about an investigation into alleged union wrongdoings.
    Katharine Murphy says that It may be risky for Labor to open up a point of difference on asylum seekers – but it’s time to call out self-serving bullshit. She’s plainly had enough!
    This week, John Wren catches up on Tony Abbott, gives us the details on Tim Wilson’s corruption and also the Medevac Bill passing.,12380
    Ross Gittins examines our current state of “secular stagnation” and reaches the conclusion that a new kind of micro reform that, by increasing the income to those likely to spend a higher proportion of it, is needed.
    “Just when you think politics can’t get any lower, someone introduces a bodily fluid”, says Jacqui Maley.
    Ian Warden has a tongue in cheek look at what the future might hold for Morrison after a lost election.
    Out-of-work Australians have complained that private job service providers offered them cash and petrol to lie about their employment status to help falsely claim incentive payments. Ain’t privatisation grand!
    In an email to the Liberal party’s administrative committee, conservative warrior Karina Okotel has been accused of “malicious” behaviour by some sections of the Young Liberal movement, who also warned that having “middle-aged activists” politicking in such a manner could drive away membership and undercut the party’s chances at the federal election.
    Meanwhile four Young Liberals have been kicked out of the NSW Liberal Party for making lewd comments about women in an online chat group meant for election campaigning. That organisation certainly attracts some nice types.
    Jacob Saulwick says that the NSW government seems to have abandoned the prospect of principled reform – the promise it made at the last election.
    A former press secretary of Tony Abbott writes that voters know the PM is fair dinkum about boats. A good breakfast purgative.
    Morrison has sent out a fresh message on border security, saying “people smugglers know they won’t get through me and Peter Dutton” but would “have a crack” if Bill Shorten became prime minister.
    Bridget McKenzie was photographed puffing out her face and rubbing her stomach next to a banner advertising the obesity summit. Great effort Bridget!
    Sally Whyte reports that A private company tasked with security vetting government officials has four foreign-born directors, raising concerns about government oversight of its vetting program.
    An expedited canonical process found the former cardinal and archbishop of Washington guilty of sexually abusing minors and adult seminarians over decades. See, it CAN be done!
    John Elder asks, “Has Donald Trump proved himself to be the glove puppet of America’s biggest loudmouth media star, Sean Hannity?”
    The former lord mayor of Melbourne, Robert Doyle, has withdrawn his Supreme Court injunction blocking Melbourne City Council from releasing its investigation into allegations he sexually harassed a woman at a 2016 event. But the council is now claiming it cannot release its investigation report because of a complaint by the woman to Victoria Police over Mr Doyle’s behaviour.
    Customer service failed to get a guernsey in Commissioner Hayne’s Final Report and herein lies the problem, says Kim Wingerei. In the competitive landscape of tomorrow, being accountable only to shareholders leaves the customer stranded. In Part 2, he calls on the next federal government to abandon the policies of the past, including the “four pillars”.
    Melissa Price is being called the “invisible minister”, the cabinet member responsible for the environment who is accused of “disinterest” during Australia’s summer of natural disasters and record-breaking heatwaves. One of the worst ministerial appointments ever!
    ANZ is investigating a multi-million-dollar fraud against its travel-card business, much of which is outsourced to troubled payments processor Wirecard, amid fears the swindle could be an inside job.
    Why is abortion such a rime in South Australia?
    Yet another mass shooting in the Land of the Free.

    Cartoon Corner

    From Matt Golding.

    Mark David and Mr Shouty.

    Reg Lynch and the One Nation blood feud.

    Zanetti goes to Queensland.

    From the US.

  2. Mike Carlton
    12h12 hours ago

    As night fell, the lights were burning late at the bustling headquarters of the Paladin Security Group…

  3. On last nights subject of Stones green ginger wine or Stones Mac. A way I occasionally drink the latter is to neck a stubbie of your favourite amber brew, top up with Stones Mac and enjoy. A bottle of Stones will last for a carton of stubbies. Anybody that decides to try this concoction, don’t over indulge. You’ll end up with a hangover you won’t believe.

  4. Bert

    My mother, who considered herself a teetotaller, in her nineties developed a taste for a small glass of “ginger wine” in the evening, no doubt believing that it was a harmless stimulant to the appetite.

  5. #PaladinAffair is the most tweeted topic on Twitter yet the AFR is the only Australian media outlet to cover it. We need to do something about Australia’s media. This is a disgrace

  6. FARK Tony Abbott and Lucien Aye.

    Doesn’t this sound familiar ?
    Wireless carriers are working hard to talk up 5G (Fifth Generation) wireless as the future of broadband. But don’t be fooled—they are only trying to focus our attention on 5G to try to distract us from their willful failure to invest in a proven ultrafast option for many Americans: fiber to the home, or FTTH.

    A recent FCC report on competition found that the future of high-speed broadband for most Americans will be a cable monopoly. Without a plan to promote fiber to the home, that’s not likely to change. In fact, because the 5G upgrade relies on fiber infrastructure, even 5G will be possibly limited to areas that already have FTTH – meaning, they already have a competitive landscape and, therefore, better service. The rest of us get monopolistic slow lanes.

    Regulators and policymakers focusing only on 5G wireless are setting us up to fail.

  7. I wonder if Barrie Cassidy will ask Christian Porter about the Paladin Group? Porter’s on the National Security Committee of Cabinet isn’t he? They must have discussed the contract generally in Cabinet if not there.

    Also I’d love a so-called journalist to delve into the extremist religious aspects.

  8. Meanwhile on the education front.

    Under the needs-based funding reforms, over-paid independent schools should have their funding brought down to the Schooling Resource Standard benchmark over the next 10 years, and under-funded public schools should have their funding increased.

    But last year, the federal government announced an extra $170.8 million would be spent in 2019 to ensure no private school lost any government funding

    Oakhill College will receive almost $500,000, while St Scholastica’s, Loreto Kirribilli and St Aloysius College will all get more than $350,000 in so-called low growth payments, according to figures released under Freedom of Information.

  9. You can’t grow trees without water and the correct environment and nutrients, and dare I say it, Climate, to grow them in. Otherwise you plant them and then they just die.

  10. C@tmomma @ #424 Saturday, February 16th, 2019 – 7:21 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #382 Saturday, February 16th, 2019 – 6:38 pm


    The Pogrom is in and you’re name is at the top of the list.

    Either you shed this self appointed role of correcting the PB diaspora or you are a dead duck.

    As I have done none of that at all since Mr Bowe laid down the law, and all I did today was lightheartedly make reference to my before and after condition, I am interested in why you have come out and made this statement.

    If it was in reference to the way I used to be here, then fair enough, but wouldn’t it have been more appropriate to say it earlier this week then?

    On the other hand, if you think that I still haven’t pulled my head in far enough, even after the pogrom, then you should make that plain, because, as far as I can take my own temperature since that time I believe that I have cooled down a lot and behaved myself as much as anyone else.

    So, maybe, so that we can settle this issue once and for all, we should get Mr Bowe, as he seems to be around, to adjudicate and tell me if he thinks I am still going too far?

    I think that might be best, rather than taking your word for it, don’t you?

    Maybe you should just go back and read what the moderator said last time he chastised you!

  11. Cost in PNG.

    Ron Knight

    Retweeted Alex Turnbull
    Seeing whats on the ground and what services i would say less then 10% of that funding is put to use. I believe its a cash cow for some very smart pollies in both countries. The standard ripoff in png is hyperinflating costs ie a road worth 2 million contracted for 20 million.

  12. Lizzie

    Just when I changed my gravatar away from the tin foil hat –

    Is this the one that made you cringe ❓

    If so

    Continuing on the theme I noted a day or so ago where expert “miners” declared a need for more coal digging (gasping for air); I presume that grave diggers would ask for a burst of grave digging – so perhaps our “potty” people are unsure of who or what to plant.

    Is that convoluted enough ❓

  13. C@tmomma

    A few years back I was slightly involved with a soil carbon project. I went to some ‘tree’ conference and remember one of the Men of the Trees leaders explaining one big fly in the ointment for planting lots of trees for carbon capture. He showed a map of the places where large scale tree planting was viable and overlaid it with our agricultural areas. not surprisingly they overlapped. So it was one or the other. That was without taking into account climate change !

  14. Barwon is looking a likely npa loss………… who wins I don’t know…. but Labor can improve their vote in Broken Hill and areas like Cobar and Bourke which will put them in the hunt

  15. poroti

    Stopping the clearing/felling of native timber would be more helpful.

    I tried to convert the pic, but failed. Thanks 🙂

  16. Insiders ABCVerified account@InsidersABC
    1m1 minute ago
    Coming up on #Insiders at 9am, @barriecassidy interviews Attorney-General @cporterwa + @mpbowers talks pictures with @SBSNews’ @marija_ziv. On the couch are the @australian’s Niki Savva, @farrm51 from and the @ANUausi’s @markgkenny.

  17. poroti,
    I was going to add that, if a farmer said they wanted the land for growing crops instead of trees that they would tell Scooter to naff off! and go plant his trees on the bit of scrub that won’t grow anything he wants to grow. 😐

  18. Samuel Clark

    We invited the Home Affairs Minister onto tomorrow’s @InsidersABC. He was unavailable. #auspol

    Dutton has been raging at Cassidy on Twitter this week, accusing him of ignoring facts.

  19. Looking at the High Vis vest Morrison has on, it says ‘Forico’ on it. So I think I can correctly assume that he is only interested in the planting of trees to make money. I’d say ‘Forico’ is short for Forestry Investment Company.

  20. lizzie,
    I’m sure that, in the Kellyanne Conway mould, Peter Dutton has his own ‘facts’. They don’t necessarily equate with the truth.

  21. What a pity about Insiders , they could have asked our Uber Tuber about this effort.
    Government attempting to deport Indigenous man to New Zealand

    The Australian government is attempting to deport another Indigenous man to New Zealand, …………“They want to kick me out of my own country,” he said. “I came here when I was two.”

    “My mum is Aboriginal – she’s from South Australia. All my kids are Aboriginal, my missus is Aboriginal, and they’re trying to send me to a foreign country.”

  22. Lizzie, re Paladin affair,
    Yes, it is not mentioned on any other news media, Except ABC News.
    This is an article by Laura Tingle, who also works for the AFR, which published the original story. She is also a regular on Phlip Adams’ Late Night Live.
    Philip Adams had Angus Grigg, AFR reporter who wrote the original story, on to discuss it.

    Wikipedia does list a Paladin Group, but does not say it’s the same one as we have here. That one is positively frightening.

    It looks like Paladin is make a monthly profit of $17M.
    So why aren’t Fairfax and Murdoch onto it?
    Sorry, stupid question.

  23. KayJay says:
    Sunday, February 17, 2019 at 7:55 am

    Just when I changed my gravatar away from the tin foil hat –

    Is this the one that made you cringe ❓

    Reminds of this one where Morrison is sucking up to the Monash group of 20 back benchers who are pro coal mining to try and save Turnbull’s butt –

    Liberal MP Craig Kelly confirmed in April 2018 that a group of 20 Coalition backbenchers has created the Monash Forum to encourage the government to support the coal industry, warning against the “demonisation” of coal.

    The group is named after the first world war general John Monash, owing to his role in opening up Victoria’s ­Latrobe Valley for coal production. Chairman of the government’s backbench committee on the environment and energy, Kelly told Guardian Australia the group’s position will add to pressure for government support for new coal-fired power. Kelly said.

    “One of the aims of the group is to emphasise the importance of coal-fired generation. Coal is demonised by a large section of the community – that demonisation is incorrect, because coal is absolutely vital to the national economy both for export and the generation of cheap, reliable electricity.”

    And now Morrison tells us he is prepared to underwrite the development of new dispatchable energy projects including coal mining. Those trees won’t do much good under his watch.

  24. poroti @ #620 Sunday, February 17th, 2019 – 8:06 am


    Scotty is nearly nailing it. He needs to borrow a couple of Security Simians from Herr Kartoffelkopfbesitzer.

    ” rel=”nofollow”>

    Red and yellow and pink and green —

    Colour me bewildered. Where can I get one a them hats ❓ I could keep a sandwich and my drink bottle in one.

    I love the smiling faces – reminds me of the old “”shit”cried the fairy queen” jokes.

    I think I had better relax as best I can while I work through Mr. BK’s Dawn Patrol. ✔😎

  25. Always enjoy going down the rabbit holes of the links you give us DTT. of course goes to one of your favourites a site that certainly lives up to it’s motto of “News you won’t find on CNN or FOXNEWS” but is careful is always use the disclaimer “The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Information Clearing House.”

    This story comes from 21st Century Wire an organisation whose Executive Editor & Founder, Patrick Henningsen, as listed in Sourcewatch includes:

    Biographical Information
    From 2011: “Patrick Henningsen is an author and founder of the 21st Century Wire news website, an Associate Editor of alternative news site and regular geopolitical analyst for Russia Today.” [1]
    He writes for Consortium News.

    So the story comes from an organisation run by a guy with links to Infowar’s nutcase Alex Jones and RT.

    Want to try to sell us another bridge I’m not buying this one?

  26. Here’s that wedge Rahm Emanuel said the Democrats should apply to the Republicans over Trump’s fake national emergency.

    “The president’s actions clearly violate the Congress’s exclusive power of the purse, which our Founders enshrined in the Constitution,” House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and Senate Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.) said in a statement. “The Congress will defend our constitutional authorities in the Congress, in the Courts, and in the public, using every remedy available.”

    Most notably, Pelosi and Schumer said, “We call upon our Republican colleagues to join us to defend the Constitution.”

    Pelosi’s office is in the process of amassing a list of nearly 400 projects nationwide that could be jeopardized by the diversion of funds to construct a border wall, the Hill reported.

  27. An Indigenous Man is more Australian than any of the White Men and Women in the Coalition government who think they are supreme!

    Has anyone asked Bess Price, Jacinta Price, Ken Wyatt or Warren Mundine what they think about the Coalition government wanting to deport an Indigenous Man to NZ?

  28. KayJay @ #632 Sunday, February 17th, 2019 – 8:18 am

    poroti @ #620 Sunday, February 17th, 2019 – 8:06 am


    Scotty is nearly nailing it. He needs to borrow a couple of Security Simians from Herr Kartoffelkopfbesitzer.

    <a href="” rel=”nofollow”>” rel=”nofollow”>

    Red and yellow and pink and green —

    Colour me bewildered. Where can I get one a them hats ❓ I could keep a sandwich and my drink bottle in one.

    I love the smiling faces – reminds me of the old “”shit”cried the fairy queen” jokes.

    I think I had better relax as best I can while I work through Mr. BK’s Dawn Patrol. ✔😎

    I think the big hat thing came from the Soviets with Kim’s grandfather.

  29. Thoughts on the election being fought on refugees policy?

    Liberal mouthpiece on ABC saying the clear cut argument will help them ; i am aprehensive and concerned that this is the case.

    Even if they lie (Children overboard / no boats / refugees are ‘illegal and dangerous ‘) they are lies that cut through.

    Hate to admit but Labor may also need a cut through with another mediscare…….even if there was more truth to that.

    The impact on polls should become more evident over the next month

  30. Commercial news played a bit of Morrison’s “secret” message to people smugglers (relayed through Murdoch media naturally). Of course, opening Christmas Island detention camp and shouting about how all people smugglers are poised to commenced business after the medivac vote, might take the edge off Morrison’s shouty message!

    Also, presumably it’s only aimed at boat people, not aeroplane people!

    NEWS CORP EXCLUSIVE. Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s video message to asylum seekers which will be translated into 15 languages and distributed to asylum-seeker hotspots in the coming weeks.

    ‘You will not succeed’: PM’s secret video warning
    EXCLUSIVE Prime Minister Scott Morrison has a stern warning for people smugglers and those attempting to come here illegally: “You will not succeed.” Mr Morrison issues the warning in a video to be translated into 15 languages and aired in 10 countries. WATCH THE VIDEO

  31. EB
    Sunday, February 17th, 2019 – 8:17 am
    Comment #631

    Reminds of this one where Morrison is sucking up to the Monash group of 20 back bench pro coal mining to try and save Turnbull’s butt –

    Examining this very fine photograph in detail we find ⏬

    A keen observer would immediately pounce on the possibility of a quick dollar or three —

    The Despatch Boxes are made of rosewood and decorated with silver and enamel. They are hinged and lockable.

    Question – are the boxes still as designed – has the silver been replaced with base metal ❓

    As for talk of Mr. Turnbull’s butt – can we just plug it please ❓ 🐴 Horse face – can’t find an emoji for the other end. 😍

  32. As bad as Trump is here is a reminder of the far more damaging and dangerous presidential era that is still playing out.

    Veni, Vidi, Tweeti (I Came, I Saw, I Tweeted)
    An Obituary for the Republic

    What dreamers they were! They imagined a kind of global power that would leave even Rome at its Augustan height in the shade. They imagined a world made for one, a planet that could be swallowed by a single great power. No, not just great, but beyond anything ever seen before…………………Look at more or less any document from the period and you’ll sense that they weren’t shy about touting the unprecedented greatness of a future global Pax Americana. Take, for instance, columnist Charles Krauthammer who, in February 2001, six months before the terror attacks of September 11th, wrote a piece swooning over the new Bush administration’s “unilateralism” to come and the “Bush Doctrine” which would go with it. In the process, he gave that administration a green light to put the pathetic Russians in their nuclear place and summed the situation up this way: “America is no mere international citizen. It is the dominant power in the world, more dominant than any since Rome. Accordingly, America is in a position to reshape norms, alter expectations, and create new realities. How? By unapologetic and implacable demonstrations of will.”

    “How Did USA’s Oil Get Under Iraq’s Sand?”

  33. The adult sons of President Trump showed up at the State of the Union address Feb. 5 wearing beards worthy of the 19th century. Don Jr.’s was so dark and satiny it looked like a mink was dozing on his face; Eric’s gave him the tawny approachability of a gospel singer in Branson, Mo. (Son-in-law Jared Kushner can join the club when — if? — his peach fuzz sprouts.)

    Why the new looks? Considering the trajectory of the family business they run, maybe the boys are trying to go incognito. Or maybe, like the hirsute Smith Brothers, they are hoping to diversify into cough drops. News goes from bad to worse for the Trump Organization, whose founder embarked on a novel brand-building exercise in 2015 — he called it “running for president” — and turned it into a 10-car pileup of canceled partnerships, red ink, government investigations and lawsuits.

    The latest wreck may be the most humiliating so far. Citing the toxic political climate that has so unfairly attached to his race-baiting, conspiracy-mongering, dictator-coddling, deficit-spending dad, Eric Trump announced this week that the company is bailing out of its only active U.S. initiative — the un-Trumpian development of a few modest hotels in the eternally struggling Mississippi Delta.

  34. I have no idea how the AS issue will play out. To me , it feels at the moment like 2007. Morrison and co have been too successful for their own good. No boats. Thoughts move onto the humanitarian side.

    After the legislation passed Parliament last week Morrison was jumping up and down last week going hyper over any boat arrival will be the fault of Bill Shorten alone. No one else.

    Now, Morrison is jumping up and down going hyper over how he and Dutton will not let a boat through. He has now taken full responsibility. 180 degree back flip.

    The man is a idiot.

    So, if a boat does arrive ( unlikely) Scott “ ring of steel” Morrison will be responsible and he has dragged Dutton into it as well. Something I am sure Dutton is not too happy being associated with.

    Meanwhile, Shorten will move along taking every opportunity to point out the thousands arriving by plane.

    I would also think that when the initial small number of AS arrive from Nauru and Manus for treatment and people see how sick they are then the human element of all this may become a bit more prominent.

    We shall see.

  35. The Japanese government introduced a bill Friday to recognize the country’s ethnic Ainu minority as an “indigenous” people for the first time, after decades of discrimination against the group.

    The Ainu people — many of whom live in northern Hokkaido — have long suffered the effects of a policy of forced assimilation, and while discrimination has receded gradually, income and education gaps with the rest of Japan persist.

    “It is important to protect the honor and dignity of the Ainu people and to hand those down to the next generation to realize a vibrant society with diverse values,” top government spokesman Yoshihide Suga told reporters. “Today we made a cabinet decision on a bill to proceed with policies to preserve the Ainu people’s pride.”

    The bill is the first to recognize the Ainu as “indigenous people” and calls for the government to make “forward-looking policies”, including measures to support communities and boost local economies and tourism.

  36. Hey @Upnorth
    Whats the bet Frecklington will get the boot sometime this year, replaced by faithful Deputy Tim Mander? As for AP,the word is that Trad is considered too,umm, forthright to take on the leadership, while Anna, while generally considered rather bland, is far more acceptable to many Qlders. The LNP however, like most Conservative Parties in Australia, isn’t overrunning with bright Leadership candidates.
    This poll result is pretty reasonable for a State Government halfway through its second term,one would think.

  37. Only a PR hack could write:

    But the impact of the events of this week go deeper than that. It’s given PM Scott Morrison an opportunity to be authentic.


  38. From the BK Files.

    A former press secretary of Tony Abbott writes that voters know the PM is fair dinkum about boats. A good breakfast purgative.

    But the impact of the events of this week go deeper than that. It’s given PM Scott Morrison an opportunity to be authentic.

    And if Morrison can connect with enough drifting **Liberal and National voters on border protection, he might be able to get them to listen to him on other issues. But he’s going to have to apply the lesson across the board, and that’s quite a job.


    Whether or not you agree with the Coalition’s approach to border protection or Morrison’s characterisation of the consequences of the medevac bill, it’s hard not to see that he strongly believes in his position.

    And it’s that belief – that ring of authenticity – that makes the salience of border protection a problem for Labor.

    An overly quick glance at the header would tend to think this was an interesting story about goats and as such caught my interest because my dear wife often called me a goat (she liked goats). Doomed (I say) to disappointment I am left lamenting, wondering just how high can BS be stacked and thinking of that old time hymn.

    **Drifting too far from the shore.

    Here endeth the lesson – time for Insiders. 😇

    Good morning Bushfire Bill.

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