BludgerTrack: 53.8-46.2 to Labor

A lurch back to Labor in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, plus further polling tidbits and preselection news aplenty.

The addition of this week’s Newspoll and Essential Research polls have ended a period of improvement for the Coalition in BludgerTrack, which records a solid shift to Labor this week. Labor’s two-party lead is now 53.8-46.2, out from 53.1-46.9 last week, and they have made two gains on the seat projection, one in New South Wales and one in Queensland. Despite that, the Newspoll leadership numbers have resulted in an improvement in Scott Morrison’s reading on the net approval trend. Full results are available through the link below – if you can’t get the state breakdown tabs to work, try doing a hard refresh.

National polling news:

• A poll result from Roy Morgan circulated earlier this week, although there’s no mention of it on the company’s website. The primary votes are Labor 36%, Coalition 34.5% and Greens 12.5%, which pans out to a Labor lead of 54-46 using past preference flows (thanks Steve777). Morgan continues to conduct weekly face-to-face polling, but the results are only made public when Gary Morgan has a point to make – which on this occasion is that Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party is on all of 1%. One Nation doesn’t do great in the poll either, recording 3%. The poll was conducted over two weekends from a sample of 1673.

• The Australian had supplementary questions from this week’s Newspoll on Tuesday, which had Scott Morrison favoured over Bill Shorten by 48-33 on the question of best leader handle the economy – little different from his 50-32 lead in October, or the size of the lead consistently held by Malcolm Turnbull. It also found 33% saying the government should prioritise funding of services, compared with 27% for cutting personal income tax and 30% for paying down debt.

• The Australian also confused me by publishing, together with the Newspoll voting intention numbers on Monday, results on franking credits and “reducing tax breaks for investors” – derived not from last weekend’s poll, but earlier surveys in December and November (UPDATE: Silly me – the next column along is the total from the latest poll). The former found 48% opposed to Labor’s franking credits policy and 30% in support, compared with 50% and 33% when it was first floated in March (UPDATE: So the latest poll actually has support back up five to 35% and opposition down two to 38%). Respondents were instructed that the policy was “expected to raise $5.5 billion a year from around 900,000 Australians that receive income from investments in shares”, which I tend to think is friendlier to Labor than a question that made no effort to explain the policy would have been. The tax breaks produced a stronger result for Labor, with 47% in favour and 33% opposed, although this was down on 54% and 28% in April (UPDATE: Make that even better results for Labor – support up four to 51%, opposition down one to 32%).

With due recognition of Kevin Bonham’s campaign against sketchy reports of seat polling, let the record note the following:

Ben Packham of The Australian reports Nationals polling shows them in danger of losing Page to Labor and Cowper to Rob Oakeshott. Part of the problem, it seems, is a minuscule recognition rating for the party’s leader, one Michael McCormack.

• There’s a uComms/ReachTEL poll of Flinders for GetUp! doing the rounds, conducted on Wednesday from a sample of 634, which has Liberal member Greg Hunt on 40.7%, an unspecified Labor candidate on 29.4% and ex-Liberal independent Julia Banks on 16.1%. That would seem to put the result down to the wild card of Banks’ preference flows. There was apparently a respondent-allocated two-party figure with the result, but I haven’t seen it. UPDATE: Turns out it was 54-46 in favour of Greg Hunt, which seems a bit much.

• The West Australian reported last weekend that a uComms/ReachTel poll for GetUp! had Christian Porter leading 52-48 in Pearce, which is above market expectations for him.

• Another week before, The West Australian reported Labor internal polling had it with a 51.5-48.5 lead in Stirling.

Preselection news:

• Following Nigel Scullion’s retirement announcement last month, the Northern Territory News reports a field of eight nominees for his Country Liberal Party Senate seat: Joshua Burgoyne, an Alice Springs electrician, who was earlier preselected for the second position on the ticket behind Scullion; Bess Price, who held the remote seat of Stuart in the territory parliament from 2012 to 2016, and whose high-profile daughter Jacinta Price is the party’s candidate for Lingiari; Tony Schelling, a financial adviser; Tim Cross, former general manager of NT Correctional Industries; Gary Haslett, a Darwin councillor; Kris Civitarese, deputy mayor of Tennant Creek; Linda Fazldeen, from the Northern Territory’s Department of Trade, Business and Innovation; and Bill Yan, general manager at the Alice Springs Correctional Centre.

Andrew Burrell of The Australian reports Liberal nominees to succeed Michael Keenan in Stirling include Vince Connelly, Woodside Petroleum risk management adviser and former army officer; Joanne Quinn, a lawyer for Edith Cowan University; Michelle Sutherland, a teacher and the wife of Michael Sutherland, former state member for Mount Lawley; Georgina Fraser, a 28-year-old “oil and gas executive”; and Taryn Houghton, “head of community engagement at a mental health service, HelpingMinds”. No further mention of Tom White, general manager of Uber in Japan and a former adviser to state MP and local factional powerbroker Peter Collier, who was spruiked earlier. The paper earlier reported that Karen Caddy, a former Rio Tinto engineer, had her application rejected after state council refused to give her the waiver required for those who were not party members of one year’s standing.

• The Nationals candidate for Indi is Mark Byatt, a Wodonga-based manager for Regional Development Victoria.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,132 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.8-46.2 to Labor”

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  1. Thanks for the midnight link, imacca

    I can’t repost the link as it seems to cause problems

    “Heat on BoM for records rewrite”
    Not looking good. Still will stoke the outrage meter of the Denialista community…..again……..and send them off frothing at the scandal of the great hoax.

    Interestingly the article has BOM directly addressing the homogenisation thing in a way thats pretty plain. And its what the science says, not some self appointed genius of the intertubes sitting around in its crusty undies stroking its pet conspiracy theories.

    the self appointed genius to whom you refer is
    Dr Jennifer Marohasy (born 1963), an Australian biologist, columnist and blogger and ex “senior fellow” of the IPA. (Wikipedia).

    Meteorology is an extraordinarily complex science. Some of the smartest people on the planet work on the statistical models used by the BoM.

    Just why a biologist’s opinions have any relevance is not explained by The Oz.

    But as we all cook slowly, like frogs in a pot, we will be comforted by reading that it’s all a hoax. Nothing to worry about.
    Let’s build another station powered by ‘clean coal’ ( now THAT’S a hoax).

  2. Broad: “Hey, guess what McCormack won’t have on his hamburgers anymore”

    Joyce “I don’t know, what ?

    Broad ” Beetroot mate, beetroot”.

    Joyce ” A haw, haw. Oi shut up, idiot, the cameras are watching”.

  3. Dan G

    Thank you for the Outline link. My morning-blurred brain forgot that not everyone has a subscription.

    I think my post is worth repeating

    On Tuesday, during the refugee medivac debate, Pyne suffered the ignominy of Labor’s Tony Burke moving that Pyne – as leader of the house – no longer be heard while he tried to head off the inevitable defeat. The parliament supported the gag on Pyne, the numbers holding through a series of votes to deliver the government’s humiliation. There are two precedents of a government losing in similar fashion – 78 and 90 years ago – which led the respective prime ministers of the day to immediately advise the governor-general to call an election. These governments were both defeated.

    Morrison has no intention of following suit. As he told the assembled press gallery midweek, “I know you don’t like the phrase, but the ‘bubble nonsense’ of people going on about all sorts of precedents, all the rest of it – frankly, not interested. I’ve got too many other important things to focus on.”

    Conclusion: ScoMo does not believe in ‘precedents’. Forget tradition. He will do whatever he thinks will produce a win for him, as he has before. Anyone else might call this a kind of immorality.

    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/opinion/topic/2019/02/16/morrison-doubles-down-security/15502356007462
    https://outline.com/T2YDCW

  4. Maude Lynne

    Meteorology is an extraordinarily complex science. Some of the smartest people on the planet work on the statistical models used by the BoM.

    Certainly the smartest person I knew at university has been involved in this area for years – and what’s more they were smart enough to get involved years ago when we other mere mortal students thought it was a “soft option” move out of ‘pure’ physics!

  5. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Nick O’Malley explains how the Greens have lost focus amid an internal brawl between the ‘Tree Tories’ and ‘Watermelons’.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/enemies-within-as-greens-caught-in-civil-war-20190215-p50xze.html
    Here we go! Morrison’s megaphone is working. A former people smuggler now living in Pakistan has been asked by his former bosses to return to Indonesia and test a future Shorten government by finding passengers willing to travel on boats to Australia.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/people-smugglers-plot-to-find-chinks-in-a-shorten-government-s-armour-20190214-p50xxo.html
    Peter Hartcher examines the science behind Morrison’s scare tactics.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-science-behind-morrison-s-scare-tactics-20190215-p50y5k.html
    Michael West outlines Dutton’s visa backlog as a honeypot for spivs, carpetbaggers and people smugglers.
    https://www.michaelwest.com.au/duttons-visa-backlog-a-honeypot-for-spivs-carpetbaggers-people-smugglers/
    Crispin Hull Says that captains of Australian naval vessels should take extreme care in the next three months – not the ordinary maritime care they always take, but the care about not being made political pawns.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/beware-the-scare-campaigns-as-the-election-nears-20190213-p50xmk.html
    Pontificating Paul Kelly says his bit on the medivac legislation saying that Shorten cannot please everyone.
    https://www.outline.com/RULmJs
    Michael Bachelard says Morrison should remember the devastation this trade, this political turmoil, caused, and stop egging people smugglers on.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/i-was-there-the-last-time-australian-politics-encouraged-people-smuggling-let-s-not-do-it-again-20190214-p50xxh.html
    Peter van Onselen tells us how the Great Boat Scare is gathering steam.
    https://www.outline.com/kScqcj
    Karen Middleton goes into the defeat Morrison hopes will save him.
    https://www.outline.com/tMDgDX
    And Paul Bongiorno says that Morrison is pinning his hopes on turning his defeat on sick refugees into a rerun of John Howard’s 2001 border security election.
    https://www.outline.com/T2YDCW
    Laura Tingle dives into the Paladin story.
    https://www.outline.com/Bfg45m
    Jack Waterford tells us how the silence of public service lambs is being used by a panicking government. A very good read.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-silence-of-public-service-lambs-used-by-a-panicking-government-20190215-p50y1g.html
    Morrison faces another policy smackdown as Labor is ‘confident’ of passing a small business policy from the opposition in an alliance with Greens and independents.
    https://www.outline.com/9rmzup
    The SMH editorial says that the long federal election campaign is giving Gladys a bit of clear air for hers.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/nsw-gets-some-clear-air-for-its-campaign-20190215-p50y3r.html
    Matt Wade writes that the past five years have been good to Sydney, but the economic outlook for the city, and the state, is shifting.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/nsw-will-probably-start-to-slow-down-sydney-and-the-state-s-dream-economic-run-may-be-over-20190215-p50y2m.html
    ASIC has warned it will pursue “extremely harsh civil penalties and criminal sanctions against banks, their executives and others” after the Senate passed tough new rules for white-collar offences.
    https://www.outline.com/UEdFZY
    Unemployed Australians are finding work in spite of, not because the government’s $7.3 billion job-seeker program, a Senate committee has found. The Jobactive program, which has already been slated for overhaul by the government, was labelled “not fit for purpose” and “failing those it intended to serve”.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/politics/federal/welfare-to-nowhere-senate-committee-slams-government-job-program-20190214-p50xwd.html
    A court clerk, a legal secretary, a legal adviser and a gunned-down Mafia lawyer are among the seven people who have been referred to the Royal Commission into Management of Police Informants in addition to Informer 3838. The explosive first sitting of the royal commission on Friday has rattled the foundations of the Victorian legal system, revealing that police tentacles have reached every level.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/victoria/embarrassment-of-snitches-eight-legal-figures-worked-for-police-royal-commission-told-20190215-p50xzz.html
    Mike Seccombe writes that while Resources Minister Matt Canavan insists Adani has the full support of the Wangan and Jagalingou people, the legitimacy of a land agreement with the mining giant is the subject of a Federal Court appeal.
    https://www.outline.com/nRThpg
    Michaelia Cash has denied her decision to write to the union watchdog about AWU donations to GetUp was motivated by Bill Shorten’s position as the union’s then-leader, the federal court has heard.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/feb/15/michaelia-cash-denies-writing-to-union-watchdog-to-damage-shorten
    Paula Mathewson tells us about the anti-Turnbull rebels who cut their own government’s throat.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2019/02/15/government-lost-paliament/
    John Silvester looks closely at the relationship between police and lawyers as the royal commission get under way.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/victoria/3838-the-genie-they-want-back-in-the-bottle-20190214-p50xs1.html
    Victoria’s royal commission into the use of police informants has revealed that at least three other lawyers were approached by police to work with them, including one who has since been murdered.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/state/vic/2019/02/15/vicpol-inquiry-kicks-off-with-bombshell-revelation/
    Alex McKinnon gets inside the franking credits debate.
    https://www.outline.com/HHpEM8
    About 650,000 borrowers with loans totalling around $230 billion are ‘trapped’ in their interest-only loans and could struggle to refinance, according to investment bank Morgan Stanley.
    https://www.outline.com/4BqRtP
    Peter Hannam reports that the Morrison government will accelerate a review of the endangered status of the Murray cod and silver perch, two species hammered by the series of mass fish kills on the lower Darling River in the past two months.
    https://www.smh.com.au/environment/sustainability/fish-kills-prompt-quickened-review-of-murray-cod-silver-perch-status-20190215-p50y5v.html
    The Bureau of Meteorology has rewritten Australia’s temperature records for the second time in six years, greatly increasing the rate of warming since 1910 in its controversial homogenised data set.
    https://www.outline.com/xDeWrz
    Tensions between the Commonwealth and the states over national energy policy have reignited after Queensland accused the Morrison government of dumping a measure considered critical to lowering household power bills.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/coalition-at-odds-with-states-over-energy-savings-measure-20190215-p50y3b.html
    Eliminating mortgage broker trail commissions will halve the average annual income of a broker to $40,000 and trigger an exodus from the industry, says Aussie Home Loans boss James Symond.
    https://www.outline.com/qKZZAa
    Trump has said he will declare a national emergency to fulfil his pledge to construct a wall along the US-Mexico border. He says he will use executive powers to bypass Congress.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/walls-work-trump-declares-national-emergency-to-build-border-wall-20190216-p50y7j.html
    Matthew Knott says that the emergency declaration a shattering step, even for Trump.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/emergency-declaration-a-shattering-step-even-for-trump-20190215-p50y2b.html
    How California has become the leader of the resistance against Trump.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/feb/15/how-california-became-the-leader-of-the-resistance-against-trump
    Meanwhile Trump has put on a little bit of weight and is now officially considered obese.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/trump-gains-weight-now-considered-obese-20190215-p50y4n.html
    The Catholic Church is headed for another sex abuse scandal as #NunsToo speak up. Is there no end to it?
    https://theconversation.com/the-catholic-church-is-headed-for-another-sex-abuse-scandal-as-nunstoo-speak-up-111539
    Isabelle Lan explains how investors fuelled Australia’s historic property boom.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/money/property/2019/02/15/why-the-property-bubble-burst/
    Environmental mismanagement runs deeper than the ecological tragedy gripping the Murray-Darling Basin. Recent policy decisions around native forest logging in NSW follow the same pattern of ignoring science and favouring extractive industry over the public interest, writes Dr Oisín Sweeney.
    https://independentaustralia.net/environment/environment-display/lessons-from-the-murray-darling-disaster-run-deeper-than-water,12378
    A second tobacco giant announces Formula 1 sponsorship deal ahead of Melbourne Grand Prix, sparking fears cigarette companies are trying to flout ad bans.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/big-tobacco-quietly-races-back-into-grand-prix-sponsorship-deals-20190215-p50xzh.html
    Remember Bob Day? He’s now selling bags and soap for charity.
    https://www.outline.com/zCVPBx
    The privileges and loopholes that keep the royal family out of court.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/entertainment/celebrity/2019/02/15/royals-above-the-law/
    This developer and the Parramatta Council have got themselves into a fine mess!
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/bodgy-builds-bubbles-and-a-big-lamborghini-parramatta-developer-hits-a-road-block-20190215-p50y62.html

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe takes the cake with this masterpiece!

    David Pope goes all the way to ridicule Morrison’s antics.

    Alan Moir has them worked out!

    Andrew Dyson and the Canberra bubble.

    John Shakespeare and Dr Morrison.

    From Matt Golding.




    Mark David gets right into it with this Morrison prayer.

    Zanetti takes aim at Porline

    Sean Leahy on Turnbull’s upcoming memoir.

    Jon Kudelka buries the big stick.
    https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/a3a6af41b8f13f542c6f863340df5eb1

    From the US




  6. Like the faux dictator ScoMo wishes to be, he tries to make a virtue out of trashing traditions upon which our parliamentary democracy is based.

  7. Heat on BoM for records rewrite (The Australian)

    https://outline.com/xDeWrz

    “The new data records are likely to be seized upon by green groups in the lead up to the federal election.”

    Yes, green groups like the Murdoch media today! The strange thing about this article is that mostly it is fairly science-y and reasonable. But it is sure to be followed by some op-eds denouncing the ‘fake news’ of global warming.

    Eventually when some people realise their coastal property is getting inundated and their a*** is on fire maybe they will get it.

  8. Tick toc on the Nationals time bomb clock.

    The Nationals seem to have decided it’s a good idea to back Labor’s weaponising otherwise uncontroversial legislation – passing Senate bills over Liberal opposition in the House of Representatives. Enter stage right [courtesy of Nationals support], amendments to the obscure Treasury Laws Amendment (2018 Measures No5) bill. The amendments are designed to help in competition law cases such as farmers and suppliers taking on Coles and Woolworths in court for misuse of market power.

    Labor senator Doug Cameron tabled amendments which state that people or organisations suing for damages for alleged restrictive trade practices – including misuse of market power, the new “effects test” designed to protect small business – can apply at any time to be exempted from paying their opposition’s costs. The court can agree the party will not be liable for costs if the case is reasonable, raises a significant issue that affects others and “the disparity between the financial position” of the parties might deter the smaller party from taking action. Small and family businesses can also ask the ombudsman for help in preparing a case for a no-costs order.

    Nationals Senator John ‘Wacka’ Williams said the effects test – which passed in August 2017 – gave small businesses a remedy “if big businesses are using their market share to undersell, sell cheap and squash their opponents.
    The amendment’s mean that

    “ if I was going to sue Woolworths for trying to screw me down and if I lose then I don’t have to pay costs. If you’re getting put out of business by the big end of town, the last thing you can afford to do is go to court, to lose, and then be hit by costs for your and the defendants’ legal costs. They make it easier and fairer for small business to have the courage to go to court without the fear of losing everything if a costs order is made against them.”

    In effect, the Morrison Government may face a second parliamentary defeat with Nationals MPs Barnaby Joyce, Keith Pitt and Andrew Broad indicating they would support the amendment bill in the HOR. On Thursday night, Senate leader Cormann rose to quash a division which would have seen Nationals senators crossing the floor to support the bill- the optics of that in the media after a HOR defeat earlier in the week was a bridge too far. The amendments passed in the Senate with a deathly silence when the call for “no’s” was made. Cormann slumped back in his chair, dismayed.

    Another time bomb is heading to the House or Representatives to test the duck-and-weave skills of Christopher Pine and Scott Morrison. They will try to keep if off the agenda for debate or capitulate.

    It seems the Nationals have decided [at least some of them] they have nothing to lose and making a big noise about this policy will send a message to their constituents that the Nationals are not the Liberal Party, they are standing up for regional and rural farmers and small businesses and they should not be punished for the sins of the Liberal Party on the Banking RC, for example.

    With 7 of the their 16 HOR seats under genuine threat, they have to do something to remain relevant to farmer brown et al.

  9. Trump officially declares a national emergency to get funds for his border wall

    President Donald Trump on Friday announced that he would declare a national emergency to fund his border wall at the U.S.-Mexico border.

    Trump insisted that a wall was necessary for border security. America was facing “an invasion” of drugs, human traffickers, and criminals gangs, he claimed.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2019/02/trump-officially-declares-national-emergency-get-funds-border-wall/

  10. Bitter Ann Coulter scolds Trump’s wall plan: ‘The only national emergency is our president is an idiot’

    Coulter started out by ranting about the president’s poor character, saying that the only reason many conservatives could stomach voting for him was to get the border wall built.

    In contrast with Trump, Coulter said, former President Ronald Reagan was “a competent man whom we trust to run the government” and “a decent person” who deserved the title of commander-in-chief.

    “None of that was true with Trump!” she fumed.

    “Forget the fact that he’s digging his own grave,” she said. “The only national emergency is that our president is an idiot.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2019/02/bitter-ann-coulter-scolds-trumps-wall-plan-national-emergency-president-idiot/

  11. GOP strategist Rick Wilson :

    When the next Democratic president grabs ‘emergency’ powers, blame Trump

    By going along with his phony emergency declaration, Republicans are giving permission to the next White House occupant — of either party — to do the same.

    First off, there’s no emergency: As The Washington Post and the New York Times both recently reported, the number of apprehensions at the southern border has decreased in recent years. And the Trump administration’s oft-stated contention that the situation at the border is a national security crisis is, in the words of CNN national security analyst Peter Bergen, “a barrel of bunkum and balderdash served with generous helpings of hogwash.” When our nation’s intelligence chiefs recently briefed Congress on the actual threats we face, you know what alarm they didn’t sound? The one about Trump’s imaginary border crisis.

    So, years from now, when you’re taking your kid to the National Health Clinic™ for an upset stomach brought on by President Booker’s government-mandated vegan school lunch, and you’re wondering how Democrats raised your top marginal income tax rate to 70 percent without a vote in Congress, don’t blame Vice President Ocasio-Cortez. Blame Trump.

    MUCH MORE : https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2019/02/15/when-next-democratic-president-grabs-emergency-powers-blame-trump/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.837977250a45

  12. EB

    On Thursday night, Senate leader Cormann rose to quash a division which would have seen Nationals senators crossing the floor to support the bill- the optics of that in the media after a HOR defeat earlier in the week was a bridge too far. The amendments passed in the Senate with a deathly silence when the call for “no’s” was made. Cormann slumped back in his chair, dismayed.

    Nice to see a few worms turning. 😀

  13. From the previous thread:

    Bushfire Bill @ #2353 Friday, February 15th, 2019 – 10:30 pm

    She has a razor sharp mind and I suspect she has never forgotten anything, except when she forgot she had bought the house next door.

    She would particularly remember anything to do with her enemies in labor and the unions.

    The Court is not some press conference. The lawyers are not journalists or PR hacks. It’s not opinion or he-said/she-said.

    If Cash is telling lies under oath she is committing perjury.

    You can go to jail for that. As she should.

    As much as we all would like this be to be the ultimate outcome, even if proven it will never happen.

    Firstly, it needs to be proven that she was lying under oath. So another court case, this time a criminal one instead of a civil one, and how far down the line? Who in the Liberal pantheon of flunkies would dare testify against her? A case which anyway would be a year or so away? Just when, hopefully, Prime Minister Shorten was wanting to make a positive impression with the nation. Also, I don’t think, for that reason that the AWU would want to bring that case. In this instance, better for her to be thought a liar by one and all, than for it to be proven conclusively in a court of law.

    This leads to the second reason why it would probably be an anti-climax anyway. As many examples that have come up recently show, if you are a Professional of some sort in society, and most especially if you are a Senior Government Minister, or were, and facing a Perjury charge, I think you’d find that even if it could be proven that you told lies in court, that the judge would let you off with a slap on the wrist. The absolute last thing you would end up doing is Porridge.

  14. Some more from the CM

    Senior LNP strategists last night conceded the party’s political brand was in decline but said internal “aided polling” (where an MP’s name is used instead of the name of a political party) was positive.

    The Courier-Mail has seen recent internal polling that reveals Queensland federal MPs are in a better position since former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull’s knifing.

    Many lost support straight after his dumping but now MPs are in the best political position they have been in since 2017 and 2018.

    It comes as voters believe the Coalition has the best plan on Australia’s border security, at 44 per cent.

    Labor recorded just 29 per cent and 40 per cent of its own voters who did not think they had the better plan.

    It will reinforce that the Government is on a winner on the issue and will double-down on its messaging.

  15. And even more from the CM..

    In a stunning turn, the Coalition’s primary vote has plummeted in the state that the Morrison Government needs to hold to keep Bill Shorten out of The Lodge.

    The LNP’s primary vote has fallen to 35 points, down from 38 per cent in November and 43.2 per cent in July 2016.

    The two-party preferred result now favours Labor 52 to the LNP’s 48. If an election was held today, that would more than double Labor’s eight seats in Queensland.

    The outcome will devastate the Prime Minister and Queensland’s 21 LNP MPs, who were yesterday celebrating a “cracker” week in Parliament.

    The survey of 810 voters statewide was taken on Wednesday and Thursday at the height of Labor’s move to make it easier for asylum seekers on Manus Island and Nauru to get medical treatment in Australia.

  16. How many Royal Commissions do we need to undo the skullduggery and nefarious activities, so blatant at the Federal level, and seemingly pervading all levels of government in Australia.
    We are presented with the overt display of selfishness and self interest, by a politician, at the Federal level, of an unelected PM of a minority government, in both houses, declaring with scant regard, for the political system, that he and his government aren’t concerned with precedent.
    Morrison is openly defying the basis of our political system to both maintain the LNP’S tenuous hold on power and using the established instruments of government, to recklessly rort these governmental bodies both financially and secretly to maintain his tenure as PM.
    We the voters, are continuously not informed of matters past, and in the interim, regarding the re-opening of Christmas Is. The voters are not privy to the ‘on-water matters’ because as we are led to believe, all this secrecy is in the public’s best interests.
    The list of indiscriminate abuse of the trust given to the LNP government has no end.
    Can the we trust the vice regal tier of government to act for the people ahead of a minority government? Doubtful!
    The polling suggests a change of government is both needed and desired.
    We are entering a most difficult period in this country as we transition from a hopelessly floored LNP government towards a rectification and renewal of government, resulting in some basic trust and belief in our political system.

  17. The outcome will devastate the Prime Minister and Queensland’s 21 LNP MPs, who were yesterday celebrating a “cracker” week in Parliament.

    Like this?

    I just think of Keating’s seminal line about ‘all the parrots in the pet shop’ when I read things like this about the Coalition.

  18. Paul Bongiorno

    28m28 minutes ago

    Cash ‘didn’t refer AWU because of Shorten’ If you believe this I have a Sydney Harbour Bridge to sell you.

  19. The starting point would’ve been for the barrister for the AWU to suggest to cash that she was lying in her evidence yesterday.

    There is no reporting that that was put.

    Absent that any discussion about perjury etc is just idle

  20. But his luck would change in early 2017 when the multinational giant Broadspectrum (previously Transfield), under pressure from activists, gave up its lucrative refugee processing contracts on Nauru and Manus Island.

    This was Thrupp’s opportunity and one he would exploit fully with his business partner, Ian Stewart.

    Their Paladin Group had been a small subcontractor on Manus, providing some security and cleaning services for the respite centre, which housed 60 people. Its contract was estimated by competitors to be worth around $15 million a year.

    https://www.afr.com/news/policy/foreign-affairs/how-a-soldier-of-fortune-landed-a-423-million-manus-island-contract-20190214-h1b9s0

  21. David WrightVerified account@DavidWright_CNN
    1h1 hour ago
    Just in from @PamelaBrownCNN: White House press secretary Sarah Sanders has been interviewed by special counsel Robert Mueller’s team

    David WrightVerified account@DavidWright_CNN
    1h1 hour ago
    “The President urged me, like he has everyone in the administration, to fully cooperate with the special counsel. I was happy to voluntarily sit down with them,” Sanders said in a statement.

  22. So, given journalists with Australian media organisations are so easily able to pick up a phone and dial a “people smuggler”, and send photographers on a holiday to take photos of those who ply that trade, what does that tell us?

    I thought the discontinuance of this dangerous “industry” was the focus of both the Nation they ply their trade in AND Australia

    Yet, here they are on the front pages of our press being quoted

    Something is wrong somewhere, surely

    And where it is wrong is the politics – and Morrison and his dysfunctional governments accusations seeking perceived domestic political advantage (and doing damage including to the fabric of the Nation)

  23. Sprocket

    I would expect the boats issue to bite still in critical QLD as you noted, particularly in those 3 Nats/LNP seats Labor is hoping to snaffle Capricornia 50.6 Flynn 51.0 Dawson 53.4 along with the disgruntled 50+ mob over cash refunds in those seats along with Wide Bay 58.3 and Hinkler 58.4 [Nats/LNP seats].

    Lets hope the LIBS resistance to the Banking RC and implementing the recommendations bites harder in the mind of flower shop Flora and screwed by G.J Coles and ‘the banks’ farmer Fred.

  24. A blast from a distant past.
    .
    .
    Full military funeral for captain cleared after aircraft carrier was hit by destroyer

    Captain Stevenson was accorded the military pageant normally reserved for serving captains who die while in command of a ship.
    https://outline.com/UCHj9W

  25. From the BK files.
    Pontificating Paul Kelly says his bit on the medivac legislation saying that Shorten cannot please everyone.
    https://www.outline.com/RULmJs

    Sadly, pleasing everybody is not how the real world works. The bill Labor passed in the Senate last December was reckless; the bill it passed into law this week is merely irresponsible. Bill Shorten said it was about “providing treatment to sick people”, yet in terms of border protection the law is a risk to Australia now and, for the precedent it sets, into the future.

    or, if you prefer

    ˙ǝɹnʇnɟ ǝɥʇ oʇuᴉ ‘sʇǝs ʇᴉ ʇuǝpǝɔǝɹd ǝɥʇ ɹoɟ ‘puɐ ʍou ɐᴉlɐɹʇsn∀ oʇ ʞsᴉɹ ɐ sᴉ ʍɐl ǝɥʇ uoᴉʇɔǝʇoɹd ɹǝpɹoq ɟo sɯɹǝʇ uᴉ ʇǝʎ ‘”ǝldoǝd ʞɔᴉs oʇ ʇuǝɯʇɐǝɹʇ ƃuᴉpᴉʌoɹd“ ʇnoqɐ sɐʍ ʇᴉ pᴉɐs uǝʇɹoɥS llᴉq ˙ǝlqᴉsuodsǝɹɹᴉ ʎlǝɹǝɯ sᴉ ʞǝǝʍ sᴉɥʇ ʍɐl oʇuᴉ pǝssɐd ʇᴉ llᴉq ǝɥʇ ;ssǝlʞɔǝɹ sɐʍ ɹǝqɯǝɔǝp ʇsɐl ǝʇɐuǝS ǝɥʇ uᴉ pǝssɐd ɹoqɐ˥ llᴉq ǝɥ┴ ˙sʞɹoʍ plɹoʍ lɐǝɹ ǝɥʇ ʍoɥ ʇou sᴉ ʎpoqʎɹǝʌǝ ƃuᴉsɐǝld ‘ʎlpɐS

    The casual Poll Bludger grown accustomed to mental gymnastics will (in a reference to an old “a man went to Hell” story) quickly adopt his “standing on his/her head” pose and easily read the above.

    What Mr. Kelly once again omitted is the normally ❓ accompanying key with which to decipher his elegantly composed text.

    I am conducting a Google search for the long ago key to the messages forwarded by the “Zodiac Killer” waaayy back in 1968 and hope soon to post the translated text. Yes, I know it’s the same as the lines above – I hope to be able to translate into real world information.

    Regardez ce tableau s’il vous plait. (Ze fotograf mit der gut bergers practicink ze fony smilez).

    c’est absolument magnifique mon amour

    Good morning. ☕ 🥐 (croissant).

    CTL A – CTL C

  26. Observer

    So, given journalists with Australian media organisations are so easily able to pick up a phone and dial a “people smuggler”, and send photographers on a holiday to take photos of those who ply that trade, what does that tell us?

    Perhaps we could introduce “Dial a PM” and get a new one each week. The current version is doing us no good. 😀

  27. lizzie @ #35 Saturday, February 16th, 2019 – 8:56 am

    Observer

    So, given journalists with Australian media organisations are so easily able to pick up a phone and dial a “people smuggler”, and send photographers on a holiday to take photos of those who ply that trade, what does that tell us?

    Perhaps we could introduce “Dial a PM” and get a new one each week. The current version is doing us no good. 😀

    Lizzie. I long ago concocted a sure fire money making plan for a
    Dial-a-Dickhead phone service and I now see that events have overtaken that with the Dial-a-PM idea.

    Best wishes for this venture. 😍

  28. OK, can someone explain this to me –

    ‘Gholizadeh did not apply for asylum and consequently has not been given refugee status. He cannot be forced back to Iran because Tehran does not accept involuntary returns..’

    I don’t understand why he got on a boat, even if he thought it would end up in Australia.

    Does anyone know why this happens?

  29. I get the feeling Morrison will wait for the next Newspoll and if it shows more than a 2 point bounce to the coalition he will go to an election believing momentum is on his side. He does not want to go back to Parl because the more he gets defeated on the floor of the house the weaker he looks.
    I’m hoping the Aus people aren’t stupid and fall for his rhetoric or that of his supporters but unfortunately some of my fellow Australians seem to be lacking in even a wee bit of intelligence or empathy.
    Time will tell.

  30. Eliminating mortgage broker trail commissions will halve the average annual income of a broker to $40,000 and trigger an exodus from the industry

    It is important to crack down on the thoroughly corrupt mortgage broking industry. The trailing commissions extracted by mortgage brokers epitomise the fee-for-no-service scams that are rife in the financial sector. When mortgage brokers are paid by banks instead of customers they will tend to put the interests of the bank that is their meal ticket ahead of the interests of their customer. That is wrong and it must end.

  31. Someone please remind me how much longer we have to tolerate this pseudo-government. I suppose the madness will step up to 110% once the election is called.

    The real question is how much damage they will do before then.

  32. So, if the number of mortgage brokers is halved then the remainder will get twice the number of customers that they currently have, thus pushing their annual pay back up to current levels. Simple.

    Of course that means they will have to work twice as hard, but hey, you can’t have everything.

  33. The Scumbags at the SMH have for a a couple or three days had a headline like this up the top of the page. Not saying it is Labor and the law change that is causing this threat but nudge nudge wink wink.
    .

    ‘Five, six, seven boats every week, twice a week’: smugglers warn of potential deluge

  34. For those following the Paladin Affair – which should dominate Pelluzzo’s appearance at Senate Estimates next week – the founder and CEO of the company is Dave Hodgson.

    He has an interesting biography….

    “Dave Hodgson
    Dave Hodgson
    Founder and CEO of the Paladin Group of Companies
    Dave grew up in Africa during the turbulent ’60s and ’70s. He was conscripted into the Rhodesian Army and joined the SAS. He fought behind enemy lines against two armies across three countries for four years.

    Thereafter Dave joined the highly secretive Selous Scouts and fought undercover with that unit and served as a Tracking Instructor for a further four years. He left the Special Forces and fought as a mercenary for two years.

    Forced to leave Zimbabwe and stateless, Dave became a commercial saturation diver in the oil fields of South East Asia and Japan. Eventually he immigrated to Australia, where he came to know the Lord Jesus during an amazing encounter with the Lord at a Reinhart Bonnke Crusade.

    Dave is the Founder and MD of the privately owned Paladin Group of Companies which controls over $800 million worth of Business Acquisitions and sophisticated Private Equity Investments. Paladin has interests in Energy, IT, Water Infrastructure, Health and Fitness, Telco Asset Management, and Investment Banking.

    In 2007 Dave founded Kingdom Investors (www.kingdominvestors.com.au), a business ministry which has spread around Australia and Overseas. KI is heading up a strategic vision to create the world’s first “Sheep Nation” in Australia, as portrayed by Jesus in Matthew 25. In 2016 Dave founded the ASP Movement (www.aspmovement.org) as an executive arm of KI, with a mandate to unite Christians, the secular community, and Government, into a single body to establish a Just Nation powered by The Preferred Economy. ASP Movement is expanding rapidly around the world.‘

    https://8thmountain.com/team/dave-hodgson/

  35. By midmorning, after a particularly unpleasant meeting with the secretary of homeland security, Kirstjen Nielsen, the president was threatening to torpedo the deal, according to two people briefed on the exchange. Several hours and several phone calls later, Mr. McConnell had persuaded Mr. Trump to once again agree to sign the bill to avert another government shutdown looming at midnight Friday.

    But persuasion came at a price: The president would declare a national emergency to try to secure wall funding without congressional approval, he told the majority leader — and Mr. McConnell would have to back him.

    “I indicated I’m going to support the national emergency declaration.” Mr. McConnell said Thursday afternoon from the Senate floor, mumbling and visibly weary after his conversation with the president.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/15/us/politics/border-wall-deal.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

    Why do Republicans refuse to stand up to the man child? Nancy Pelosi showed how it’s done: just say no!

  36. Speculation on twitter that the ‘Sheep Nation’ has links to our Pentecostal PM – surely not!

    “#Paladin’s CEO and cofounder. This ‘8th Mountain’ site is pure Seven Mountains movement (theocratic, dominionist, end-times bilge) that has tentacles in Assemblies of God churches (eg Hillsong & Morrison’s Horizon). Coincidence? #auspol

  37. This is starting to feel like Victorian election. Scare campaigns, media spin, good polls for Labor but narrative of Coalition bounce, Libs lurching to the right, Labor is focussed and united, Greens are irrelevant, independent challenges are over rated but still possible.

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