Essential Research has come out with a second poll in consecutive weeks, the previous one having departed from its normal practice in having a longer field work period and a later release, tailored to work around the interruption of the long weekend. Coming after a period in which a media narrative of Labor taking on water over franking credits has taken hold, the results of the latest poll are striking: the Coalition has sunk four points on the primary vote to 34%, Labor is up two to 38%, the Greens and One Nation are steady on 10% and 7% respectively, and Labor’s two-party lead has blown out from 52-48 to 55-45. Other questions relate to the banking royal commission: you can read more about them from The Guardian, or await for Essential’s full report, which I assume will be with us later today.
UPDATE: Full report here. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1067.
Cash’s answers were direct so unless someone can show she lied under oath then I don’t see how any type of improper behavior on her part can be shown.
_______
So it goes to her character . . . . oh wait!
Boerwar @ #2205 Friday, February 15th, 2019 – 5:46 pm
BW You plainly think of irrigation from the point ofview of those on the Murrumbidgee/Murray system, where about 2100 gigalitres per annum are diverted in from the Snowy scheme, over and above natural flows from the Lachlan,Murrumbidgee,Murray/Mitta Mitta catchments. The snow/rainfall over these catchments is much (as in MUCH) greater and more reliable than in the Darling catchment. On the Darling, there is no such thing as a snowfield, and the average rainfall over the whole is 250-350 mm pa , compared to the southern dividing range, where averages are 450-800, and runoff is orders of magnitude higher. When the Cubbie type operators catch ALL of the water which falls on their properties, and dam everything that flows into them along the major (Culgoa) (or Birri, or Narran, or Barwon) rivers, then there is nothing, zilch, nada left for those downstream, and the (really, actually) precious environment. Essential floods NEVER happen.
The very idea that you can apply similar rules to the Darling Catchment to those which apply on the Murrumbidgee/Murray systems is simply idiotic. Its like applying science applicable to sweet potato farming to dry-land wheat. There is nothing in any of the MDBA publications which indicates that they have the faintest idea that this is the case. Stated bluntly, there should be no irrigation on the Darling catchment, except for limited local fruit and vegetable production. Cotton be damned.
And of the people coming be plane they seem to be particularly stressed by unaccompanied women from the middle east.
To many assertive women in Australia already?
davidwh says:
Friday, February 15, 2019 at 6:55 pm
C@t Cash didn’t say she couldn’t recall she was very direct about her answers.
—-
Um, no. You might want to back peddle and read what Sprocket reported earlier today about her ‘testimony’. She will get a tougher grilling next week at estimates and might her storm in a tea cup attitude to her gross misrepresentation of the truth will have her screeching like a stuck pig again.
This from the WOMAN who threatened to “expose” rumours of staff sexual indiscretions in Bill Shorten’s office in defence of Barnacle Joyce. She couldn’t be direct in the toilet bowl this one.
Zoomster
Yep, I am sure that when Julia Gillard was renovating her house she thought “better be careful with this, might be PM one day and find myself in a Royal Commission”
It may well be that Cash didn’t know the exact detail but I have no doubt that her staff would have been tuned in to what she would want in any matter related to the AWU and Shorten.
Just like Murdoch doesn t have to tell his editors on a day by day basis what to do. They know.
Kevin Bonham:
[‘Government has now trailed continuously for 31 months, the longest ever.’]
It’s apparent that the trend is so entrenched as to render the Tories unelectable, whatever they might whip up, the ReachTEL poll in Flinders today evidencing same, though a relatively small sample.
Get this judge for Cash 🙂
I do not accept this evidence’: judge blasts Adam Giles
=
COURT A SUPREME court judge has flatly rejected evidence given by former Chief Minister Adam Giles in a dispute between gas giant Inpex and local property developers Halikos.
https://outline.com/XuuwPz
53% have decided this government must go. 2% swing, and 45% don’t want labor. And it has been like that for a long long while.
With Gas, you would need to look at the Contracts entered into by the suppliers including currency (in what currency is payment received)
Then look at the viability of the business operation including factoring in currency
The AUD was at $1.04 to the USD, now at 70 cents, so a 35% deprecation
So where is viability given the movement in currency?
IF payments are in USD’s under the Contract and the exporter does not have USD expenditures (so a natural hedge) so are they exchanging the USD’s to AUD’s to meet operational costs (hedged or unhedged because Forward Contracts May have been entered into for forward delivery), what is the impact
Do the sums and see what answers you come up with
I wonder if this is an indication he is thinking of running in 2020.
The Greens and figures, hey?
So 45% do not favour a Labor Government
Disaster for Labor!!!!
Who ever would entertain the Greens being anywhere near the levers of government?
All else being equal a lower AUD means increased revenue for exporters and lower revenue for importers. However it depends on whether the business has any control over the selling price. For many commodities Australian exporters are price takers so there will be a reduction in the USD selling prices where overseas importers take currency movements into account when setting prices.
So the answers are it all depends.
Frednk, ‘The mess was not made in the last 20 years.’
I have regularly gone outback for the last 20 years and the ‘goat problem’ has ramped up in the last few years. That is why I was astonished. I could see the changes happening.
Rather than ‘having a market’ reducing goat numbers, it has increased them. I have seen the process firsthand. A farmer showed me his system. He had water troughs around his station. The goats come in in family groups to drink. He ring fenced the troughs with an opening with a ramp laying down in the entrance. The goats go in and out as they please. He then raises the ramp and the goats go up the ramp and jump into the pen to have a drink. Trouble is they can’t get out. He backs up his semitrailer and selects the animals he wants to sell. Young ones are generally released to fatten up and breed the next generation. He has no intention of reducing the numbers. Much easier than sheep which is what he used to do.
davidwh
The way these multinationals operate I would not be at all surprised to find that for ‘tax purposes’ the LNG is produced in Monaco and sold in The Cayman Islands 🙂
Yabba
1. Floodplain harvesting needs to be included in the useable water calculations.
2. The current allocation between the environment and irrigation is not properly balanced.
3. The current total useable water calculations have been falsified by Global Warming and need revision.
4. Within the overall MDB, the recalculations should be done on a catchment by catchment basis, including in relation to Cubby Station.
Poroti 🙂
Then they may never convert those USD’s to AUD’s
One interesting feature of the plane arrivals is that a large number of them come Countries like China and India on short term work visas as part of a scam.
Once they make their claim they are able to stay and work until it is complete.
These Countries have very low rates of legitimate claims, but the processing times mean they stay considerably longer in Australia than they would have under their original visa.
Whilst working in Australia they pay a percentage of their wage to the people who organised their original visa, so the longer they stay and work the more money the organisers make.
This has nothing to do with legitimate refugees and is all about scamming the system. 🙁
Observer
The 45% who won’t vote Labor are very unlikely to vote green.
The 53% that want to vote the government out may vote green as a 1st preference; so labor doesn’t get the $2+ dollars that a first preference is worth. Not the end of he world.
Spanish PM calls a snap election for April 28
https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/02/15/inenglish/1550218263_541173.html
What Happens When Techno-Utopians Actually Run a Country
https://www.wired.com/story/italy-five-star-movement-techno-utopians/
PeeBee
Then there needs to be some sort of control. The issue is no longer feral goats; the issue is overgrazing.
Sheep, cattle; goats; overgrazing is over grazing.
Barney in Ben Tre
Been guilty of doing that myself. They came to deport me 12 months after I reported I was overstaying my visa.
The person I reported to gave me the advise; you want to stay 6 more months; it will take 12 for them to deport you. I will simple start the process.
But Fredrik,
This is a deliberate scam using people that have no legitimate claims to asylum and was the plan by the organisers from the beginning.
Sorry
frednk
Bloody autocorrect.
Rossmcg @ #1785 Friday, February 15th, 2019 – 7:11 pm
Yes. In hierarchies/bureaucracies the culture starts at the top.
Just been re-watching The Games (starring John Clarke).
Laugh?
Near fit to split my sides I did.
Frednk ‘sort of control. The issue is no longer feral goats; the issue is overgrazing.
Sheep, cattle; goats; overgrazing is over grazing.’
Yes, but we were talking about goats weren’t we?
I think feral goats (which essentially all goats in the outback are) have a special capacity to de shrub vast areas. There numbers has increased in recent years and the damage they are doing is obvious.
As I say you would need to know the provisions of the Contracts entered into
When these Contracts were entered into they supported a business model, delivering profit to the supplier
The bankers would have reviewed those Contracts when deliberating on the proposal to finance
Hedging (Forward Contracts) would have been a consideration to underpin revenue (then there is delivery because rolling those Contracts can have its own outcome – think AWA many years ago as but one high profile example)
It maybe there is a natural hedge because of USD operational expenditures
USD accounts are maintained with Australian banks – and any bank so the driver in any Exchange is the denomination of operating expenses (or some because they may be funded in USD’s so interest payable in USD’s as an example)
Do the sums and see who is cleaning up at whose expense
Including gas being imported into Australia for consumer consumption – having been sold in (no doubt) USD’s
The depreciation of the AUD results in what impacts on the price of imported product or produce to Australia?
And for exporters, where payment is in USD’s to the provider of product or produce, what is the impact on their revenue received?
Follow the money – and the currency
Bushfire Bill @ #2256 Friday, February 15th, 2019 – 6:05 pm
Has there been a similar program like it since? Every other satirical political program since seems to be a try-hard imitation of the Games.
Freddy
Too much for me!!!
Greens and logic do not equate
That’s just it, ‘Fess.
The Games didn’t look like it was trying hard at all. That was the secret of its success.
Leroy @ #1799 Friday, February 15th, 2019 – 7:41 pm
It’s a long read by the end of which your post will be buried. So thank you now. The early paragraphs describe an organisation with a spirit similar to GetUp, but with different short term goals. Thank you.
Channel 9 reports that Cash’s COS, Davis, has been recalled to give further evidence in the AWU matter on Monday.
This could prove very interesting!
Late riser
Love her or loathe her you have to concede Cash is a warrior.
She has a razor sharp mind and I suspect she has never forgotten anything, except when she forgot she had bought the house next door.
She would particulaly remember anything to do with her enemies in labor and the unions
Rossmcg, I’ll stick with your second option. And you make a good point, it is hard to believe she forgets anything.
Cash’s defence comes down to “Ya can’t prove it!!” with perhaps a bit of Sgt Schultz thrown in. But it’s laughable & will convince nobody. Partisans won’t change their language but any swinging voters looking on will call Bullshit.
the NSW Greens are imploding again…
“I don’t know what the platform is,” says one despondent activist of the Greens’ campaign. “I don’t even know what the f—ing slogan is.”
So far the rift in the Greens has already resulted in one NSW MP quitting the party and two others threatening to leave.
Now a long-term parliamentary staffer, Jack Gough, is also resigning, telling the Herald that he believes those scientists who say the world has only a dozen or so years to act on climate change, and that in his view a hard-left faction in the NSW Greens determined instead to focus on a quixotic campaign to dismantle capitalism in the cause of revolutionary socialism.
In a Facebook post announcing his departure to members last week he wrote: “While the global Green movement represents me and my political philosophy, the NSW Greens no longer do.”
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/enemies-within-as-greens-caught-in-civil-war-20190215-p50xze.html
Historians blame goat keeping for making much of the Middle East a moonscape. They do a lot of damage compared to other herbivores – they have cloven hooves, they can climb, and they eat everything.
Re the Cash thing, this inquiry is just emblematic of everything the public hates about this govt. Mean and tricky, governing for themselves rather than the broader community or national interest, shoring up jobs for their own and so on.
Cash is like high viz beacon for everything that people hate about this mob and can’t wait to be rid of.
When Lee Rhiannon’s partner refused to cede control of the NSW Greens I knew that the Socialist Alliance faction of the NSW Greens wouldn’t give up the power base they had built up within the party without a fight.
Boerwar @ #2315 Friday, February 15th, 2019 – 8:36 pm
It would appear that we are somewhat closer to agreement. The other major factor which massively complicates any calculations is the extreme variability between seasons in the western Darling catchment, and the necessity to allow floods to occur, and flow all of the way down the river, and into all of its billabongs, anabranchs, and random swamps and floodplains.
On a totally new topic: Anyone have a view on the impact of optional preferential on the Senate this time around?
I have a mild theory/hope that the Clive-asaurus might have a disruptive effect on the right-wing vote: pulling some votes away from PHON and the Coalition and exhausting immediately. Might have the double happy effect of dragging PHON and the Coalition down while not delivering the UAP a quota.
I’m sure you didn’t mean this. But if you keep imploding you end up creating a black hole, which is one of those things where no light escapes, after which it slowly evaporates. (Hawking, said something like that, I think.)
What’s happening in the NSW Greens is just amazing. As the article says, when you have dead fish and river systems, floods, fires and extreme weather happening surely that is ideal operating conditions for the Greens to spruik their policy agenda.
But apparently Greens members don’t actually know what their party’s policy agenda is. Bizarro territory and a total failure of leadership.
Instructive.
https://www.indiegogo.com/projects/the-australian-pm-hotline
WeWantPaul @ #1732 Friday, February 15th, 2019 – 10:00 am
How is that any different whatsoever from the current situation? The 40-45% (or more) of the population who want to Remain have just as much a genuine grievance and right to be angry today as Brexiters would in your scenario.
Good. Let the conservatives be hurt and loud and angry. They deserve it most.
The conservatives won the Brexit vote. I haven’t noticed that that has made them calm and quiet.
Brexiteers!!
If any Bludgers are feeling a little down at the moment then this should give them a smile. The classic blooper tape of affable 80s legend Peter Russell Clarke.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F0X-OBEgkas
So the government headline about a sports integrity commission comes to nothing rejected by sporting bodies
I wonder what the Mad Men Star will announce next
With apologies to Mad Men because I enjoyed that series
No-one seems to be as obsessed and forever discussing the impending doom of the Greens as those who no nothing about it. Particularly the pinions of Lab.
For the record NSW Greens don’t have a formal leader, never have
It’s more a federation of local groups, campaigns and issues can be quite local, I doubt the broad generalisations are very applicable at all.
Forests, biodiversity, Climate Change, offshore coal seam gas, coal and renewable energy is what has been campaigned on amongst many other matters recently. Interest and engagement in all those after this summer from what I can see
NSW Greens policies are available to anyone who can read or could be bothered to look, to which many PBer’s seem to dismiss as unnecessary facts in many debates
https://greens.org.au/nsw/policies