Essential Research: 55-45 to Labor

Shortly after Newspoll found the Coalition’s tentative momentum grinding to a halt, Essential gives them their worst result since August.

Essential Research has come out with a second poll in consecutive weeks, the previous one having departed from its normal practice in having a longer field work period and a later release, tailored to work around the interruption of the long weekend. Coming after a period in which a media narrative of Labor taking on water over franking credits has taken hold, the results of the latest poll are striking: the Coalition has sunk four points on the primary vote to 34%, Labor is up two to 38%, the Greens and One Nation are steady on 10% and 7% respectively, and Labor’s two-party lead has blown out from 52-48 to 55-45. Other questions relate to the banking royal commission: you can read more about them from The Guardian, or await for Essential’s full report, which I assume will be with us later today.

UPDATE: Full report here. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1067.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,398 comments on “Essential Research: 55-45 to Labor”

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  1. Morning all, the air has a different smell this morning, PB took ages to catch up on from last night due to some sound contributions from all and sundry and no one exercising that inalienable right of the social media pundit “the right to be offended”.
    Well done WB, love your work!

  2. sprocket_

    Just found that tweet – hope he turns it into an article. The exquisite irony for Dutton and his crew!

    Bevan Shields
    21m21 minutes ago

    I wonder if anyone who voted to roll Malcolm Turnbull in August paused for even a moment yesterday to recognise their actions were the catalyst for the government’s defeat on the refugee bill.

  3. Mike Carlton
    18m18 minutes ago

    The Murdochracy is awash with hysteria today, a joy to see. But for sheer stupidity, Good ‘Ol Richo takes the cake. (The Oz)

  4. The spectacle of the Government being defeated in the House will register quite deeply with voters. It speaks of disarray, of disorder, of power slipping away from the LNP. Morrison has been disabled and is now a PM in name only. He’s also an obvious coward. He’s refused to resign or call an election. Essentially, this says that not only has he lost power, he also deserves to.

    The LNP are utterly busted now. Any leader with elementary respect for the House, for democracy and for the electorate would accept the reality of their position and go to an election. They are transparently terrified of the people. They richly deserve the defeat that awaits them.

  5. A Good Morning to all.

    The sun is shining, the birds are singing, and we are one day closer to healing the Labor-Green Schism.

    Rejoice People, Rejoice!

  6. Morning all

    Last night both channel 7 and channel 9 late news went with the loss of bill in house as being bad for Labor,
    The media and the fiberals are now going with Labor being a huge risk again for people smugglers and boats.
    This is all we are going to hear from them again.

  7. Briefly

    You have missed the meme. This historic loss is bad for Labor.
    And it has been suggested in media that the fibs were okay with this turn of events so they could ramp up the Labor being risk to national security as their main platform of election campaign.
    Should we be bloody surprised!

  8. The Opposition will be able to change the sitting dates of the House, once again against the will of the Government, repeating yesterday’s humiliating defeat. Labor will move its legislation for bank reform and the public will see Labor beginning to govern from Opposition. This will signify very clearly that the LNP have given up governing; that while they may hold office they have lost power and cling on from fear. They will be inviting a massive electoral defeat. Voters will not wish to affiliate with a weakened and ineffectual Government-in-hiding. The longer this persists, the worse it will get for the LNP, for whom an election cannot come a day too soon.

  9. Morning all. The news site headlines are plain this morning: SMH, Guardian and ABC call it a “Historic Defeat” and “Historic Loss” as it is for the government. What % of voters still get their news from 7 and 9 TV?

    On top of the 55/45 poll result, I think we will start seeing a few more retiring MPs now. The power of incumbency is gone.

  10. Victoria
    “The media and the fiberals are now going with Labor being a huge risk again for people smugglers and boats.”

    You are right, Victoria.
    They never question why it is that the Gov’t Border Protection (on water) relies on keeping sick people locked up and deprived of necessary medical assistance.

  11. A Liberal ad popped up on twitter, along the lines of “Labor’s weakened our borders, sign here if you are afraid of brown people” — spent a cheerful five minutes reading the replies, 100% of which were along the lines of “oh, diddums’ or ‘shove it.”

    And to think I was nervous about clicking on it…

  12. The usual G/Libling strategy of trying to run a decoy position came badly unstuck for them yesterday, just as it did when they toyed with supporting the Government over marine national parks. They are idiots. They went very close to self-wedging themselves to the point of political self-immolation. G-loyal voters have been very long-suffering. They must have been truly aghast when they realised the Gs were on the point of saving the skin of the worst Government in living memory while also voting to prevent the medevac of refugees.

    It’s well worth remembering that the Gs have prospered on the back of refugee suffering, just as the LNP have also prospered from the ritualised punishment of refugees. The worst thing that could happen for the Gs would be that refugee suffering might come to an end. They retail suffering. It would be a sad day for them were the suffering to run out.

  13. And right on cue . . .

    Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Peter Hartcher writes about how Morrison’s strength turned into a weakness.
    Michael Koziol says that yesterday the Morrison government twice turned to Tony Smith to rescue it from defeat but twice, he failed to oblige.
    David Wroe outlines what the public want when it comes to the situation around asylum seekers and says that yesterday’s bill ticks all those boxes.
    Tony Wright tells us how the first day of the political year threatened to end the Morrison government.
    The Australian’s Simon Benson reports that the PM has declared every new people-smuggling boat arrival will be “on Bill Shorten’s head” after yesterday’s historic vote.
    And Pontificating Paul Kelly says that Labor has delivered a sharp blow to border security.
    Constitutional lawyer Anne Twomey explains how the government was defeated on the ‘medivac’ bill, but that does not mean the end of the government.
    Michelle Grattan warns that Shorten’s victory will bring dangerous counter strikes from a desperate government.
    In a somewhat scathing contribution Paul Bongiorno says that Morrison has formally hot the panic button.
    Phil Coorey says that the Coalition believes it can turn the loss into a political positive by banging the drum between now and election day that Labor has again gone soft on boats by colluding with the Greens and other so-called “do-gooders” to weaken border protection laws.
    It’s not every Prime Minister who loses a vote on his government’s own legislation. The man who ended an 80 year run not only definitely deserves a special mention in Australia’s political history but a closer look at just where the hell he came from. Michael Sainsbury unpacks the peripatetic pre-parliamentary adventures of Scott John Morrison.
    Katharine Murphy and Paul Karp unpick yesterday’s passage of the medivac bill.
    The deaths haven’t stopped: a fact Scott Morrison can’t avoid, writes Katharine Murphy.
    Unsurprisingly, the Coalition’s franking credits scare campaign is working. Once again, sensible tax reform is sacrificed on the altar of short-term politics and the absence of a holistic approach. Once again, politics gets in the way of policymaking, and fear and obfuscation are winning.,12365
    In a good article Ross Gittins dispels many myths and explains how climate change is offering Australia an opportunity.
    Nicholas Stuart holds the mirror up to government as defence spending and revenue raising head for a mighty clash.
    Plans to develop more than 3000 homes in buildings up to 18 storeys high at the Showground station precinct in Sydney’s north-west have been thwarted after an independent panel rejected a controversial bid to rezone parts of the site.
    A BBC cameraman, assaulted during a speech by US President Donald Trump, was the victim of an “incredibly violent attack”, Ah. Trump’s America!
    Van Badham writes that Tony Abbott has not changed, not even the Speedo pose looks different.
    The SMH editorial depicts the return of Hakeem al-Araibi as a rare Australian victory for the cause of human rights.
    Meanwhile the Australian Federal Police chief is expected to shed light on its role in the jailing of refugee footballer Hakeem al-Araibi, who was released from a Thai prison and landed in Melbourne yesterday after more than two months behind bars.
    Australians have had enough of the Coalition’s complicity with Saudi, savagery and ignoring international law, writes human rights lawyer and Greens candidate for Dickson, Benedict Coyne.,12364
    Judith Ireland looks at the parliamentary career of the soon to depart Wack Williams.
    This professor of architecture says that much of the punitive cost of cooling is not down to power prices but to cheap and thoughtless construction and design.
    An anti-vaxxer writes about seeing the light.
    The government’s failed citizenship crackdown introduced in 2017 caused a backlog of 83,000 unprocessed citizenship applications, making waiting times 10 times longer than previously experienced, an audit report has found.
    Australia’s mortgage brokers have hit back at the banking royal commission with a Grim Reaper-style ad that marketing experts describe as a “scare campaign”.
    Administrators picking through the wreckage of one of the country’s largest online broking houses Halifax Investment Services, have found that $57 million in money invested by clients has been mixed up with funds belonging to the company. Bloody mongrels!
    Carolyn Cummins reports that the nation’s biggest banks are scrambling to contact up to 100,000 customers who may have been caught up in a major data breach at property valuation firm, LandMark White.
    The UK Guardian predict that deal or no deal, both Labour and the Tories will split over Brexit.
    Wow! The competition regulator is probing the big four consulting firms Deloitte, EY, KPMG and PwC over allegations the firms operate as a cartel.
    Activists have called on the Queensland government to investigate after mining company Adani confirmed that contaminated water released into the Caley Valley wetlands during last week’s Queensland floods occurred at almost twice the rate it is licensed for.
    Elizabeth Knight looks at the dynamics of the iron ore market as we enjoy what she describes as an accidental boom.
    Trouble at David Jones as former Westpac chief executive Gail Kelly and Australian banking director Patrick Allaway have resigned from the board of David Jones’ parent company less than a week after the shock exit of the department store’s boss David Thomas.
    Lisa Martin tells us about the terrible stories coming out of yesterday’s aged care royal commission hearing.
    Some of the most senior clerics in the Roman Catholic church who have vociferously attacked homosexuality are themselves gay, according to a book to be published next week. Eighty per cent of priests working at the Vatican are gay, although not necessarily sexually active, it is claimed in the book, In the Closet of the Vatican.
    Michaelia Cash’s former chief of staff Ben Davies told her then media adviser, David De Garis, that federal police were set to raid the Australian Workers Union’s offices, the federal court has heard.
    And it’s nearly the end oi the line for El Chapo, today’s nomination for “Arsehole of the Week”.
    Remember these two nominees from last year?

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe with Dutton needing medical attention,

    Beautiful work from David Pope!

    Cathy Wilcox and Hakeem’s return.

    From the prolific
    Matt Golding.

    John Shakespeare’s been busy too.

    Two crackers from Sean Leahy.

    Fiona Katauskas says she’s happy that this cartoon she did yesterday is now redundant.

    Zanetti’s fixation continues.

    Here he pulls out an old Bill Leak cartoon to make his point.

    Jon Kudelka sends the ambulance to Parliament House.

    From the US

  14. Good morning all

    Thanks for the morning paper updates, great cartoons and a reminder I didn’t dream they passed that medivac legislation last night.

    And we wake up with Williams Essential poll analysis. How good is it be an Aussie right now. Whoot.

  15. Socrates says:
    Wednesday, February 13, 2019 at 7:30 am

    Voters are furious with their banks…and the banks know it. At my local CBA branch, the Manager is now on front-of-house duty, meeting incoming customers near the door, offering to help, introducing themselves, trying to be a friendly and charming face. They’re putting their key staff into re-building customer relations. I was greeted in this way yesterday and was assured at least 5 times by the manager that they were ‘here to help.’ All I wanted to do was deposit some cash.

  16. briefly

    Westpac made changes in their tele banking some months ago, and frankly I find it irritating. Instead of a factual male voice working through the procedure, there is a ‘friendly’ female saying “We’re here to help” at the beginning and “You’re done” at the end. 🙁

  17. Even career criminals, if attacked in gaol, are treated with medical assistance (Tony Mokbel). Dutton’s deliberate cruelty to ‘punish’ AS is inhumane and has done diddley-squat to prevent many thousands of others arriving by plane.

  18. lizzie

    I’ve been waiting for someone to ask Morrison if we have the death penalty because that is what he is proposing by refusing entry for crimes x,y,z he could in effect be killing them.

  19. lizzie says:
    Wednesday, February 13, 2019 at 7:53 am

    The thing is, the CBA stole from me. They literally stole, within the meaning of the WA Criminal Code. I went to the WA Police, who it has to be said were no help whatsoever. I did get my money back after a brief struggle. But they have forever discredited themselves as far as I’m concerned. The Manager I met yesterday is a friendly and charming person. But she works for a criminal organisiation.

  20. briefly

    Morrison having lost on what he had proclaimed was a massive issue should have gone immediately to the Governor-General to call an election. On March 16th if that were still possible, or even the 23rd (bumping NSW back two weeks).

    But now the public see the unelected PM without a majority in either house, and without the strength in his convictions to face the people on what he says is a matter of grave importance.

    Most will just see it as wanting to be PM and in government for as long as possible and will reward this behaviour appropriately when the time comes.

    I almost hope he tries to play the November option – I’m sure even Katter would get onside then and vote for a no confidence motion.

  21. Labor does need a counter to the coming hysterical campaign on “border security”.

    Really, when it gets down to it, if a few boats get through, so bloody what. A grown-up country can deal with it. In the meantime, who do you trust to:

    – do the right thing by retirees who don’t have a large share portfolio
    – sort out the banks (hint: not the lot who voted 26 times against a Royal Commission).
    – Maintain and enhance Medicare
    – Do something about wage stagnation, wage theft, unemployment
    – Do the right thing by people buying their first home. Those buying their seventh can get stuffed do so without generous concessions from the taxpayer
    – Maintain and defend the ABC, not attack it and eventually sell it off
    – Maintain our social security net, not cut it
    – etc etc

  22. I think lizzie has hit on the chink in the Coalition’s armour. The electorate has realised that the Coalition have created the greatest straw man imaginable by screaming about boat arrivals when the determined asylum seekers just found a workaround and came by plane instead.

    So all their cruelty to the refugees that they were holding as hostages on Manus and Nauru, without due medical care, which anyone who came by plane and ended up in a Detention Centre, or free in the community pending resolution of their claim, was able to access, came to be plainly seen as very cruel and unusual punishment.

    Thus, even if the Coalition find a way to let the boats through again (not a sure thing for reasons I explained last night), people will now be able to see it for what it is and remind themselves about the ones coming by plane anyway.

    Btw, I still don’t want the boats to start again because I honestly feel sick in the stomach at the needless loss of life.

  23. Briefly
    They know the jig is up if the government changes.

    Thanks BK. Interesting that the “Australian government loses bill” is the fifth most read item on the BBC website this morning. And no, they are not calling it a win for ScumMo. Perhaps after yersterday I should call him ShameMo?

    I think now the momentum is as bad for ScumMo as it was before christmas. Extra sittings will give a chance for Labor to raise questions about ASIC and APRA and compensation for the RC victims. Nor does the government have any mandate to demand the house pass another budget, especially if it is a tax cutting, wedging election special. Plus Dutton should be referred to the HC on multiple grounds.

  24. There is a certain irony

    On the one hand we have the rhetoric and dire warnings of the pm and the government following the vote of the lower house yesterday

    On the other hand we have the claiming of credit for the return of a refugee to Australia from Thailand

    So, by extension, incarcerated in offshore detention there is no one of the character of the person whose return to his adopted home was so feted yesterday – and no one who can play soccer, obviously

    They are illegal immigrants not soccer players

    What an immature Nation we are to be accepting the rhetoric of the incumbent government

    And the contradiction – unchallenged

    For this reason alone the polls give confidence in Australia as a Nation

  25. Victoria says:
    Wednesday, February 13, 2019 at 7:21 am

    You have missed the meme. This historic loss is bad for Labor.
    And it has been suggested in media that the fibs were okay with this turn of events so they could ramp up the Labor being risk to national security as their main platform of election campaign.
    Should we be bloody surprised!

    The MSM/LNP line won’t wash. Voters like the bill. The Liberals were defeated. I doubt that voters feel any more or less fear today than they did last week. They just see panic among the Liberals.

  26. The terrorism ploy that Morrison is about to run (allow boats into Australian waters) may not work as well as he thinks. Morrison came down to Melbourne to beat up the Bourke St stabbing a week or two out from the state election, but the Liberal vote collapsed after that. The more voters see of Scott, the less they like him. The Coalitions best chance in the upcoming election campaign is to hide the PM.

  27. Morgan Poll:

    Clive Palmer has been ubiquitous on Australian screens – whether TV, mobile, tablet, or computer over the last few weeks, but the latest Roy Morgan Poll conducted with 1,673 electors over the last fortnight shows that Palmer’s 2019 advertising blitz has failed to convince Australians to give the former Fairfax MP another chance in Federal politics. Palmer’s newly rebranded United Australia Party (UAP) is attracting only 1% of the vote and trails fellow Queensland based party One Nation on 3% support.

    In total 29.5% of Australians are supporting minor parties and independents, but this figure is dominated by the Greens (12.5%) and Independents/Others (11.5%). The remaining 5.5% is spread between One Nation, UAP, Katter’s Australian Party, Australian Conservatives and the Christian Democratic Party.

    The ALP (36%) leads the L-NP (34.5%) on primary votes and the ALP enjoys a comfortable two-party preferred lead over the L-NP on the back of Greens preferences.

  28. As MR said on ABC this morning – “And, this is just day one of the sitting session; imagine what the rest of them will be like?”
    Frogs in warming water springs to mind.

  29. Sohar

    Yes it didn’t work in Melbourne.

    Another thing here in Melbourne that I have observed.
    Since AFL footballer Magac Daw deliberately hurt himself before xmas, the Sudanese bashing has eased up.

  30. Has Bill been trying the line “Surely a competent government’s border security doesn’t collpase in a heap because a few sick people get medical care. Surely this government is not so weak, flimsy and incompetent they can’t work out how to continue turning back boats because doctors want to help people.” etc

  31. ABC this morning ranting about the “emergency” measures being taken by Morrison and Dutton in the wake of the medivac vote. What are the odds that these measures include giving a financial incentive to people smugglers to send a few boats which Border Force will conveniently fail to intercept?

    The Federal Government is gearing up for an election fight on border protection after its historic defeat on the floor of Parliament over medical care for asylum seekers.

    The Coalition is preparing to beef up border protection measures in response, foreshadowing announcements to be made in coming days.

  32. Rocket rocket

    I went for holiday in Italy six months ago, where both myself and OH family originate. There are still family living in Italy.
    All I can say is that the attitude of Italians can be just as nasty as those here when it comes to refugees.

  33. Morning all! Ta BK

    Love the smell of LNP desperation in the morning.

    Dutton appears to think he can talk about ‘confidential security briefings’ with alacrity. We know where the leaks come from, I suspect.

  34. Looks like the adults once again upstaged the whining child. Essentially having caused the longest govt shutdown in history Trump’s ended up in a worse bargaining position than he was at the start of the year. He’s now all but irrelevant. #ETTD

    President Trump went to El Paso, which he falsely said had been rampant with crime before border construction, to whip up his base in favor of a wall. Before he could take the stage, however, congressional negotiators reached a tentative deal to reopen the border — with 55 miles of bollard fencing, but no wall. Meanwhile, at a nearby location, Beto O’Rourke gathered a crowd of thousands to celebrate American values. Trump, in short, was essentially irrelevant, as he increasingly is. (Only his cheerleaders at Fox News bothered to cover him live in entirety.)

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