Essential Research: 55-45 to Labor

Shortly after Newspoll found the Coalition’s tentative momentum grinding to a halt, Essential gives them their worst result since August.

Essential Research has come out with a second poll in consecutive weeks, the previous one having departed from its normal practice in having a longer field work period and a later release, tailored to work around the interruption of the long weekend. Coming after a period in which a media narrative of Labor taking on water over franking credits has taken hold, the results of the latest poll are striking: the Coalition has sunk four points on the primary vote to 34%, Labor is up two to 38%, the Greens and One Nation are steady on 10% and 7% respectively, and Labor’s two-party lead has blown out from 52-48 to 55-45. Other questions relate to the banking royal commission: you can read more about them from The Guardian, or await for Essential’s full report, which I assume will be with us later today.

UPDATE: Full report here. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1067.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,398 comments on “Essential Research: 55-45 to Labor”

Comments Page 2 of 48
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  1. The best counter attack to the Coalition’s full-on assault on the electorate and Labor about the Asylum Seeker ‘Menace’ is for the polls to keep going down and to stay down, all the way to the election. Don’t let the fear mongers win.

  2. Using Italy’s gold reserves to plug budget holes could be an interesting idea, Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini said on Monday after a media report said the government was considering such a move.

    Earlier, La Stampa newspaper said that the government was considering using part of the country’s gold reserves, which are held by the Bank of Italy, to rein in its budget deficit this year and avoid a planned VAT increase in 2020.

    “It’s not an issue that I am following, but it could be an interesting idea,” Salvini, who is also the League party’s leader, told reporters in Rome when asked about the possibility of tapping gold reserves.

    Previous attempts by Italian governments to tax the gold reserves or to sell part of them to help balance the public accounts were stopped by European authorities because they would have undermined the Bank of Italy’s independence or broken public financing rules.

    The talk of using the central bank-managed gold reserves comes after the leaders of the ruling coalition, formed by the far-right League and the anti-establishment 5-Star Movement, promised at the weekend to replace top officials at the Bank of Italy who they said must pay for failing to prevent bank failures.

    Italian Agriculture Minister Gian Marco Centinaio, who is also a member of the League, said on Monday he had never heard anyone in the government speak about the idea of using gold reserves to plug budget shortfalls.

    “I’ve never heard talk in cabinet meetings or any other political settings about getting our hands on the Bank of Italy’s gold,” Centinaio said in an interview with Radio Capital.

    Italy is the world’s third-largest holder of gold reserves, behind the United States and Germany, with 2,451.8 tonnes as of last year, according to the World Gold Council.

  3. poroti

    I think it was Remeikis who pointed out yesterday that Hinch was not a certainty to support the Bill. He may go for some attention seeking again today. Security? Bah!

  5. Victoria

    Re Italy and immigrants. Years back I read an article saying Italy/Italians were having problems with immigration because for the previous 1-200 years traffic had been all outward bound 🙂

  9. Roman Quaedvlieg
    @quaedvliegs
    58m58 minutes ago

    They won’t ‘let one through’, but they will make a circus of any exploratory venture attracted by the looming election, no matter how far flung or nascent it may be

  10. Poroti

    Actually that is what shits me the most. Italians that left for better life were given blessings by those remaining. In effect putting less pressure on their own resources etc but the notion of others coming to them, well you know. They are not Italian.
    Gives me the pips.

  11. Michael Cohen apparently had ‘medical issues’ which prevented him from appearing before a Senate committee. But not too sick he couldn’t enjoy a night out beforehand.

    Christina BinkleyVerified account@BinkleyOnStyle
    Feb 10

    Had a lovely dinner last night at L’Avenue with … wait … who’s that there? Why, it’s Michael Cohen, greeting tables as he leaves a three hour dinner with friends, who he warmly hugged).

    :large

  14. It was heartening to see the Independents and the Greens play a leading role on this issue, with Labor coming along for the ride. Usually Labor run a million miles from doing anything humane for asylum seekers. The firmness and resolve of the cross bench fortified Labor – put steel in their spines.

    The outcome of the time limit issue for a Minister’s decision is instructive. Labor initially went to water on this, wanting no time limit. This was clearly unacceptable. But the Greens were firm. Ultimately this firmness gave Labor the push they needed to agree to a 72 hour time limit.

  16. Cheryl Kernot
    ‏@cheryl_kernot
    4m4 minutes ago

    Labor needs to keep saying constantly that “it’s possible to be tough on borders & humane to sick people.” Millions of Australians do not follow the details. The big picture lies work. And they will be repeated. @Tony_Burke @billshortenmp #auspol

  17. Pegasus @ #63 Wednesday, February 13th, 2019 – 8:51 am

    Richard Di Natale was interviewed on ABC RN Breakfast this morning:

    https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/access-to-medical-treatment-comes-before-border-security/10806020

    Michelle Grattan pings the Greens pretty well this morning.

    “Originally pushed by the crossbench into taking a stand on humanitarian grounds – the bill is based on a proposal from independent Kerryn Phelps – Labor has sought to display compassion but contain the political risk.

    Bill Shorten, knowing the danger, decided the version of the bill coming from the Senate (which Labor had supported there) left the ALP too exposed. He flagged last week he’d like a “middle” course.

    So the opposition came up with amendments to give the minister wider discretion and more time in making decisions, and to limit the application of the legislation to those on Nauru and Manus now. The latter change was to minimise the “pull” factor – the extent to which the new arrangement would encourage the people smugglers.

    Then it was a matter of persuading the required six crossbenchers. They accepted in the negotiations that a modified bill was better than nothing (though there was some Greens cavilling)”.

  19. Murphy calls out greens virtue signalling :

    Shorten had to pivot on the medical evacuation bill after Morrison successfully put the opposition in a corner, but the Labor leader’s objective over the past 24 hours has been to emerge with the requisite parliamentary humiliation for Morrison, and also hold Labor’s progressive supporters together, rather than cleave the base and create circumstances allowing the Greens to recover from their internal travails and position themselves on the moral high ground at Labor’s expense.

  20. Dr Binoy Kampmark

    https://independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/the-return-of-hakeem-al-araibi-human-rights-and-the-sport-factor,12366

    But the plights of people enduring potential rights abuses vary in terms of how they are received. The Australian response to this has been, on one level, encouraging. On another, it has been obscene and typical of cultural and political schizophrenia. In the unremitting gush over the imminent arrival of al-Araibi, there is an unmistakable sense that his protection visa mattered less than his enthusiasm for sport and competency with kicking a football around.
    :::
    The Australian reaction was unlike that behind any other refugee or asylum seeker cause. It had sport in the bargain rather than any bookish intellectual issue. It had the spirit of competition that could sell with a certain type of populism. Al-Araibi’s political or intellectual nous as a dissident was less relevant than the plight of a sportsman.
    :::
    While happy to add his name to the al-Araibi cause, Boochani suggested how broader public opinion remained arbitrary and selective:

    “I wish public opinion would challenge the gov [sic] just as strongly on the human crisis in Manus and Nauru.”

    The implicit suggestion: take up a sport and seek a strong sponsor.

  21. “C@tmomma says:
    Wednesday, February 13, 2019 at 8:47 am
    Bob Katter saying half an hour ago that he is open to considering 2 more weeks of parliament.”

    Perhaps Labor has promised to restore the funding for dams that he would lose if he voted against the government?

  23. The Greens got thoroughly outplayed yesterday. We saw early in the morning Di Natale insisting the Greens wouldn’t support Labor’s bill, and then when they realised they’d actually be opposing medical transfers and a more humane response to those in detention, they had no choice but to vote for the amended bills.

  24. Cook at least appears safe for Morrison but his pre-2007 career casts plenty of questions over his strategic campaigning abilities, his management and a distinct tendency towards a lack of transparency.

    Perhaps this is unsurprising as all these things are hallmarks of the one through line of his career: spin-doctoring — for property and tourism lobby groups and for the Liberal Party in its backrooms and in parliament. It’s a decidedly tactical rather than strategic game operated by guns for hire rather than true believers — and Morrison has already handed the electorate ample evidence of his willingness to change his mind for votes.

    Finally, its worth noting that spin doctors are rarely elected to lead countries although in recent years two examples have come to the fore: Britain’s David Cameron and the Bronx spinner par-excellence, Donald Trump. Enough said.

    The article also suggests that Morrison has no abilities himself, but has always relied on purchasing the talent who will do the work. Doesn’t really work when you’re PM, especially if the ones you rely on are talentless too.

    https://www.michaelwest.com.au/scott-john-morrison-where-the-bloody-hell-did-he-come-from/

  25. It was heartening to see the Independents and the Greens play a leading role on this issue, with Labor coming along for the ride.

    Indeed.

    While Labor and the Coalition played their political games, Bandt and the other five crossbenchers, Phelps, Wilkie, Sharkie, McGowan and Banks, remained united in their common objective to find a way through.

  26. The Guardian

    Meanwhile all of this is going on in the shadow of the high court, which is being asked to hear a case involving a key part of Australia’s border security policy.

    As Helen Davidson (who received a shoutout in the parliament yesterday for her ongoing reporting of Hakeem al-Araibi’s plight) reports:

    A proposed high court challenge to a key immigration case could retrospectively affect every instance of onshore detention in the past 15 years if successful, the federal government has said.

    On Wednesday the high court will hear a request to challenge Al Kateb v Godwin, a controversial 2004 ruling about a stateless man who no country would take after Australia rejected his asylum claim, and which effectively enabled indefinite detention in Australia.

    The case is brought on behalf of Said Imasi, another stateless man who has been locked up for nine years with almost no prospect of deportation or release, his lawyers claim.

  28. Just before lunch yesterday, RDN declared the amendments were worse than the status quo. With barely any changes to them ( from as soon as possible to 72 hours ) suddenly they’ve lead the way on negotiations.
    Most likely, Bandt could see his parliamentary career ending, and caved in to agree with Labor’s amendments.

  29. What a fucked up place. Not a ‘shock horror’ story for them, just another day reporting on a ‘sensible’ move by the school.
    PALMETTO — Harold Verdecia, 39, was an infantryman in the U.S. Army, completing tours in Iraq and Afghanistan. He has been shot at, and he has fired back.

    “That’s just the job,” he said.

    Now he patrols the hallways of Manatee School for the Arts, strapped with a Kel-Tec “Bullpup” rifle and a Glock 19X. Verdecia isn’t there to get to know the kids, break up fights or do the typical community-policing that school resource officers typically do, said MSA Principal Bill Jones.
    https://www.heraldtribune.com/news/20181220/msa-guardian-is-strapped-ready-for-worst-case-scenario
    The gun.

  31. Rocket Rocket @ #2 Wednesday, February 13th, 2019 – 7:07 am

    sprocket_

    Just found that tweet – hope he turns it into an article. The exquisite irony for Dutton and his crew!

    Bevan Shields
    @BevanShields
    21m21 minutes ago

    I wonder if anyone who voted to roll Malcolm Turnbull in August paused for even a moment yesterday to recognise their actions were the catalyst for the government’s defeat on the refugee bill.

    You bet I did, and posted on it yesterday. Just sayin’.

  32. I think its unfair to talk in terms of Greens being “outplayed” – as if they were the ones playing games.

    The fact is, labor backflipped on their support for the Storer bill. The Greens reasonably expected labor to support the same bill they supported before the Christmas break in the senate. They reasonably expected labor to follow through on how they were intending to vote on the last day of parliament had the coalition not stalled proceedings and successfully shut down a vote on the floor.

    Its pretty clear who was ‘playing games’ here. When labor does such a backflip and contradicts itself so (supporting and voting on a bill one minute, then suddenly demanding ammendments the next) – how can anyone be surprised that the Greens react negatively to that? Yet to their credit, they ceded to labor’s demands and got a watered down bill through.

  33. Most likely, Bandt could see his parliamentary career ending, and caved in to agree with Labor’s amendments.

    Plus hemorrhaging more members.

  35. When a picture tells a thousand words…

    Nick HaggartyVerified account@NickHaggarty
    40m40 minutes ago

    Greeting the PM the morning after the Medivac vote #auspol

    :large

  37. @Peg

    I see that that Peg the typical Greenie isn’t giving Labor any credit, bug still doing the old Labor Bashing of same-same.

    Go bloody do something else.

  38. Good Morning

    I see the blame game is being ramped up again.

    Some facts.

    Di Natale is bad in public comments on negotiations. Adam Bandt stuck with the coalition and left all the talking to Phelps.

    You can’t say Labor led the way. Phelps did.
    Credit goes to everyone as all agreed.

    In my view as I have said before I think Band should be the leader.
    The culture of the House and Senate are different. I think this is why Di Natale negotiates in public with over the top statements.

    _____________
    Senate now suspending to move the Medivac Bill.

  40. Labor’s amendments introduced in the HoR watered the bill down, the bill Labor supported in the Senate.

    Labor backflipped in its support and played games with the aim to politically humiliate the Coalition.

    Despite Labor’s delaying tactics, the crossbenchers, including Bandt, remained united in their principled aim to ensure the outcome for an improved medivac process for the asylum seekers and refugees stuck in hell-holes.

  43. Sky News Australia
    ‏ 46m46 minutes ago

    .@AlboMP: The thing that’s changed is the government’s rhetoric. Our legislation has no impact on any new arrivals whatsoever. The government knows that.

  45. @Peg

    “Labor backflipped in its support and played games with the aim to politically humiliate the Coalition.”

    BS

    Greens played political games with one of the amendments.

    they wanted 72 hours instead of 24.

    Crossbench was already to vote with Labor.

  46. Let’s not forget there is no pull factor in this bill – it neatly applies exclusively to existing Manus and Nauru inmates. So if the bill passes, and some boats pop over the horizon, unexpectedly not, I fail to see how this can be blamed on Shorten and not pointedly at Govt skullduggery, or incompetence when they cry innocence.

  49. lizzie @ #3 Wednesday, February 13th, 2019 – 7:08 am

    Mike Carlton
    ‏@MikeCarlton01
    18m18 minutes ago

    The Murdochracy is awash with hysteria today, a joy to see. But for sheer stupidity, Good ‘Ol Richo takes the cake. (The Oz)

    Having risen from my luxurious queen sized bed (which I share with various odds and ends – a mouse – a couple of remotes -some of those doodahs for jabbing at phone keyboards etc) and after viewing BK’s masterful dawn patrol – I espie the above.

    What could Richo be up to I wonder, has he taken to doing good works ❓ Is he helping aged folk across busy streets ❓ Is he campaigning for homeless housing ❓

    Cleverly (only my opinion) I track down the item in question, surrounded as it is with wall to wall deep pile items of a similar ilk and find some brilliantly constructed prose which contains such gems as — wait for it – sips ☕

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/columnists/graham-richardson/man-on-a-mission-morrison-takes-the-fight-to-labor-leader/news-story/b54505b27d7ea5e1230667e63c993912
    https://outline.com/p97hpR

    Finally, our Prime Minister has hit his straps. Scott Morrison has obviously come to the same conclusion long after the nation did. Being a good bloke is not enough. In a few short sentences, he gave the impression of a man on a mission to take the fight up to Bill Shorten.

    When Shorten backed away from supporting the flawed Phelps bill, he did so because the PM made him look lightweight with cut-through rhetoric that showed Morrison would not go down without a fight. This is the problem with Shorten on national security. He thinks it is something you trade on.

    I have just gone across to view this load of old C**d*w**l*p on my quite large used to be smart TV (sadly reduced to begging for sustenance) – to find that no matter the display – hogwash remains just that.

    Morrison says Shorten is looking for some middle ground. Morrison says: “I’m going to stand on the right ground. You want to join me on the right ground Bill, you’re welcome.”

    I cain’t take no more ❗ That was my battle cry in the military (mostly to myself) when confronted with daily routine orders and such piffling nonsensical drivel. Therefore I now desert the field completely disarrayed to return to the manufacture of protective hardware should the aforementioned TV somehow find itself showing Channel 7 or (my fingers atremble now) Channel 9.

    I hold Mr. MikeCarlton in fairly high regard and though I note he says sheer stupidity he has been wise enough to refrain from peak stupidity. For this much prized title we hope and wait and pray.

    Do I dare to take the field in darkest The Australian knowing that lurking in the undergrowth are IED’s (initially typed IUD’s) manufactured by – Simon Benson, Ben Packham – Paul Kelly-Dennis Shanahan-Richard Ferguson – maybe not. Perhaps a little R & R vacuum cleaning will suffice instead.

    Good morning – 🌞 ☮

  50. Itza:

    You know that as soon as boat arrives (and I’m sure we will see one) the govt is going to scream for all its worth as to how they knew this would happen once the Medivac bill went into law.

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