Essential Research: 55-45 to Labor

Shortly after Newspoll found the Coalition’s tentative momentum grinding to a halt, Essential gives them their worst result since August.

Essential Research has come out with a second poll in consecutive weeks, the previous one having departed from its normal practice in having a longer field work period and a later release, tailored to work around the interruption of the long weekend. Coming after a period in which a media narrative of Labor taking on water over franking credits has taken hold, the results of the latest poll are striking: the Coalition has sunk four points on the primary vote to 34%, Labor is up two to 38%, the Greens and One Nation are steady on 10% and 7% respectively, and Labor’s two-party lead has blown out from 52-48 to 55-45. Other questions relate to the banking royal commission: you can read more about them from The Guardian, or await for Essential’s full report, which I assume will be with us later today.

UPDATE: Full report here. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1067.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,398 comments on “Essential Research: 55-45 to Labor”

Comments Page 35 of 48
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  1. There’s always a tweet.

    Donald J. TrumpVerified account@realDonaldTrump
    Repubs must not allow Pres Obama to subvert the Constitution of the US for his own benefit & because he is unable to negotiate w/ Congress.

    6:36 AM – 20 Nov 2014

  2. Haynes RC

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-15/the-banking-royal-commissions-missed-opportunity/10807518

    Genuine fee-for-service financial adviser Suzanne Haddan (the owner of BFG Financial), said she had no doubt where the retention of asset-based fees would end.

    “To not have addressed one of the major structural flaws of the financial advice space is just setting us up for another royal commission in another five years,” she told the ABC.

    Ms Haddan also lamented the royal commission’s failure to put a stop to what is known as “general advice”, which is where the adviser does not take into account your personal financial circumstances.

    “General advice has been used to sell product,” she said.

  5. https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/melbourne-sprawl-50-000-housing-lots-to-be-released-making-way-for-12-new-suburbs-20190214-p50xwf.html

    Fifty thousand housing lots will be released by the Andrews government in Melbourne’s sprawling growth corridors, paving the way for 12 new suburbs.

    Work will begin on turning the large swathes of land into new suburbs within the next four years, Treasurer Tim Pallas will tell the Urban Development Institute of Australia on Friday.

    But almost all of the new suburbs lie beyond the reach of Melbourne’s urban rail network.
    :::
    But Interface Councils, a peak body representing outer-suburban councils, has warned that if investment in these new suburbs is based on historic funding, the release of 50,000 housing lots would be a “tragedy” for Victoria.

    “Already we have overcrowded schools and roads and a poorly-serviced delivery model and an under-serviced public transport network when you move further away from the rail corridors,” said David Hawkins, Interface Councils secretary.

    “Research shows that people living in the growth areas have nowhere near the same level of service or infrastructure compared to residents in other parts of Melbourne. While the current government has taken steps to address this, there is a historic lack of underfunding that needs to be urgently addressed.”

  8. On Cash and the AWU case, while what Cash says about her own involvement will be interesting, and potentially politically damaging for Cash, that still leaves the case itself.

    I have a question for the legal types who are following the case: Given the admissions that Davies, DeGaris and Tetlow have already made, has not the AWU argument of political motivation already been substantially proven? If so, where does the ROC investigation go from here?

  9. Jeez the ABC is full of ‘Radical Lefties’, isn’t it? Straight from a Liberal Minister’s office to a gig with the National Broadcaster.

    Yet still the Coalition piggies squeal whenever a report to the Left of Ghenghis Kahn gets through. As that is the modus operandi of these types. Lay it on with a trowel until you have remade the foundations in your image.

  10. I think Labor asking for extras sittings is not a stunt, and there are many issues that an and should be resolved. Implementation of the RC recommendations on banking and FOFA to name two. Waitign more months means more months of banks rorting customers with no legal consequences. Plus there is no compensation for victims for months. Why should governing the nation stop for three months because the Liberals find it difficult? It i not as though everything is going smoothly.

  14. Theresa May has suffered an embarrassing defeat at the hands of hardline Eurosceptics, plunging her hopes of uniting the Conservatives around a renegotiated Brexit deal into chaos.

    The prime minister failed to win support for her EU strategy after the European Research Group (ERG), led by Jacob Rees-Mogg, abstained on a government motion because it appeared to rule out a no-deal Brexit.

    The defeat marks the end of a temporary truce over Brexit among Conservative MPs, who had voted last month in favour of May’s strategy if she could obtain some concessions from Brussels on the issue of the Northern Ireland backstop.

    The prime minister was not present for the House of Commons defeat, by 303 votes to 258, in which she again lost control of her party in the crucial final weeks before Britain is due to leave the EU on 29 March.

  15. Outgoing Labor Senator Jacinta Collins will begin her new role as executive director of the National Catholic Education Commission next week, Archbishop Anthony Fisher OP has announced.

    Archbishop Fisher, chair of the Bishops Commission for Catholic Education, said Senator Collins “has had a long personal and professional connection” with the Church.

    “She has been a strong advocate for education – across all sectors – in the Parliament. She has worked in early childhood and school education portfolios and other committees with even broader educational oversight,” Archbishop Fisher said.

    “She was a key contributor to the development of the Gonski school funding model while in government as Assistant Minister for School Education and, in Opposition, was heavily involved in parliamentary debate over the Gonski 2.0 model passed in 2017.

    “Renowned for her work on behalf of her constituents and key stakeholders, Jacinta will now advocate for the approximately 770,000 students in Catholic schools and their families, as well as the more than 90,000 people who work in Catholic education.”

    In a statement, NCEC chair Greg Crafter AO said Senator Collins is renowned as a strong advocate for social justice and quality education across all sectors.

    “Her parliamentary knowledge and strong commitment to the values that underpin Catholic schools make her the ideal person to lead the NCEC as it continues to advocate on behalf of the hundreds of thousands of families who entrust their children to our care every school day,” Mr Crafter said.

  16. C@t:

    I can’t think why anyone would want the job. Esp with the coalition going into opposition where they will constantly whine and complain about public broadcasting and use parliamentary inquiry after parliamentary inquiry to investigate all things ABC.

  17. Holden Hillbilly

    And what is amazing is that this whole Brexit saga was totally unnecessary to begin with. Talk about shooting oneself in the proverbial foot

  18. Andrew_Earlwood says:
    Thursday, February 14, 2019 at 11:19 pm
    Unless things go particularly well for the Greens in the upcoming GE it seems unlikely that Waters won’t even be in the senate after June.

    That statement is self contradictory. Try again AE

  19. Is this behaviour a symptom of the effects of Morrison’s antics?

    Probably a bit more to do with how the Libs managed to hang onto East Hills last time. Whilst the new candidate had nothing to do with it a bit of self awareness about the disgraceful behaviour of the previous campaign from the party she’s volunteered to represent wouldn’t go astray. Calling for more respect for candidates perhaps could start with being more than a bit disgusted by the ‘paedophile lover’ smear campaign against the Labor candidate (at both the last and this election).

  20. Labor asking for extra sitting days is not a stunt, because they want Coalition to be responsible for their actions or lack of.

    Unlike the Greens who just attack Labor because they are jealous…

  22. ratsak,
    Come to your senses, man! Liberals don’t have it in what passes for a heart for them to show an erg of consideration for their Labor opponents. 🙂

  23. Labor senator Jacinta Collins

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-senator-resigns-from-parliament-heads-to-catholic-schools-role-20190214-p50xwk.html

    Senator Collins, who is tipped to head the National Catholic Education Commission, used her valedictory speech to debunk the “myth” that she was one of a dying breed within Labor.
    :::
    “Those who come to our great party, or broad church, from a base of Christian social principles are not disappearing,” she said.

    “In some respects we are stronger than during some periods over the last two decades – just look at the recent euthanasia debate.
    :::
    Senator Collins has been one of the strongest voices within the party on social issues as well as a defender of federal funding for Catholic schools ahead of the federal government’s offer of $4 billion to satisfy demands from private schools late last year.
    :::
    Debates on religious freedom have often been led by conservatives within the Liberal and Nationals parties but Senator Collins used her speech to emphasise Labor’s support for the same principle.
    :::
    Senator Collins, whose term was due to expire on 30 June this year, is expected to be replaced on Labor’s Victorian Senate ticket by Raff Ciccone, an official at the Shop, Distributive and Allied Employees Association (SDA), the same union she worked for before entering Parliament.

    Collins voting record: https://theyvoteforyou.org.au/people/senate/victoria/jacinta_collins

  24. Sprocket

    Thanks. I guess that is my point. Regardless of whether or not Cash admits involvement, the basic AWU claim of a political motivation in the ROC investigation seems to have been proven based on the statements of witnesses so far. It is hard to think what could turn up from here that would change that.

  25. morning all.

    Episode LX*
    A New Hope
    — cue Star Wars theme—

    from the AFR article in BKs dawn patrol; thank you BK:
    The issue has galvanised the party and given the backbench hope, with Coalition sources saying if it causes a tightening in the polls, it may lead to panic in the Labor.

    I think the best response for this is some Star Wars quotes:

    “The Force is strong in this one…”
    or perhaps.
    “The Force can have a strong influence on the weak-minded.”

    * insert number of lost NewsPolls here

  27. Andrew_Earlwood says:
    Thursday, February 14, 2019 at 11:19 pm
    Unless things go particularly well for the Greens in the upcoming GE it seems unlikely that Waters won’t even be in the senate after June.

    First i THINK your trying to say Waters won’t make it – hard to tell by the contradictory things in that statement.

    Second, you might want to have a look at what Kevin Bonham says- he thinks it likely she will get a gig after the election.
    http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2019/01/what-are-prospects-for-labor-green.html

  28. Jacinta Collins

    https://www.9news.com.au/2019/02/14/18/51/labor-shoppies-still-powerful-senator

    Retiring senator Jacinta Collins has declared Labor’s socially conservative faction is not a dying breed, insisting the group still wields serious influence in the party.

    Senator Collins belongs to the Shop, Distributive and Allied Employees Association-linked faction known as the “Shoppies”.

    Some have suggested the Shoppies’ influence has waned in recent years, with Labor increasingly adopting progressive social stances on issues like same-sex marriage.

    “I do not represent a dying breed in the Labor Party. Those who come to our great party – or broad church – from a base of Christian social principles are not disappearing,” Senator Collins told parliament.

    “In some respects, we are stronger than during some periods over which I’ve served over the past two decades – just look at the recent euthanasia debate.”

    In August, she combined with faction allies Don Farrell, Helen Polley, Chris Ketter, and Deborah O’Neill to defeat legislation which would have given territories the right to make assisted-suicide laws.

    A catholic ex-politician joining a catholic lobby group – a good fit and sort of like another example of the revolving door

  31. On the manufacturing front, this is good news, and comes on top of Sonen setting up a battery manufacturing plant in Adelaide.
    “”Cole Latimer tells us that the historic former Ford Motors factory in Geelong will be re-established as a manufacturing hub after Danish energy giant Vestas unveiled plans to build wind turbines on the site.”

    In the same way I think there is now real potential for a domestic rail manufacturing industry (passenger heavy and light rail vehicles) based on the many mooted but unfunded projects to service growing outer suburbs in almost every city that lack adequate public transport. This would actually be cheaper than the Coalition’s fettish for building roads, especially in very expensive tunnels. Hence we would meet emission, employment and economic objectives at the same time.

    The best way for governments to generate jobs is simply to do what needs doing. Stop being in denial about climate change, the needs of the community for health and education, and caring for the disabled, and you will also create a lot of jobs. I think there is real potential for a Shorten government to improve things in Australia, because the incumbents are wasting so much money on corrupt or ideologically driven schemes.

  32. Pegasus @ #1707 Friday, February 15th, 2019 – 8:59 am

    https://www.outline.com/Wf4wBK

    Labor’s call for extra parliamentary sittings was primarily a stunt but it had enough substance to make life awkward for the Coalition.

    What Labor pulling a stunt – say it aint so.

    So you and the greens support the libs in their low number of sitting days. I guess it would give more time for the black wiggle to talk about all the things he has achieved in parliament…

  33. Peter stanton says:
    Thursday, February 14, 2019 at 10:56 pm
    EB says:
    Thursday, February 14, 2019 at 10:40 pm
    Waters has much better street appeal aka Barnaby Joyce than Bandt does; hope she takes the mantle if Di Natalie can’t sort out the mess in Victoria, TAS and NSW.

    PS: People are speculating Littleprod will take the DPM gig post election from McCormack. What a waste of question time he turned out the be, at least Barny gave us a beetroot face to laugh at.
    —————————–
    i doubt that the Labor caucus will accept him.

    Funny man- you know what I mean.

  36. Paddy Manning

    https://www.themonthly.com.au/today/paddy-manning/2019/14/2019/1550119478/shorten-stands

    The government is quite right that the public is now getting a clear line of sight on Opposition leader Bill Shorten’s character, but it is quite wrong to suppose that the public won’t like what they are seeing. It took a while, and a lot of pressure from the Greens and the crossbench, but Labor and Shorten stood up this week, daring to part ways with the government on border protection.

    After almost 2 decades of asylum seekers and refugees being demonised by the two major parties, and with the public sentiment starting to change, Shorten is finally discovering some spine.

  37. “The Farce is strong in this one…”

    Indeed. The whole era of government under Abbott, Turnbull and ScumMo could be described as first comedy, then tragedy, followed by Farce.

    As for the parliamentary sittings, regardless of who is in the ascendancy, why should anyone think it reasonable that parliament sit for a historically low number of days when an election has not been called? Parliament is supposed to sit as part of our system of government, so that ministers can be questioned on the progress of their portfolios. That is the Westminster system. If you don’t like it, don’t become a politician. Even in their worst periods, Rudd and Gillard still turned up to cop the flack. They didn’t close up shop. Have a good day all.

  38. Can’t PM May ask for a postponement of Brexit?

    If so at what point does it suit her to do so? I’d have thought at this stage she could use it as a threat against the extremists in her party. “Sensible deal or I delay”..

  39. “Those who come to our great party, or broad church, from a base of Christian social principles are not disappearing,” she said.

    I’ve seen the SDA in action in WA, they have the same kind of Christian principles as Morrison. The ALP would be significantly better if they all disappeared and the shoppies had a union that actually represented the workforce. Young, progressive, no more ‘Christian’, either the real or the Morrison variety than any other population.

  41. Cud Chewer:
    The only way out of the current Brexit mess is a second popular vote….
    When in doubt or running in circles on crucial matters… you can always ask the People.

  42. Pegasus says:
    Friday, February 15, 2019 at 8:39 am
    Greens senator Jordon Steele-John was interviewed on ABC RN Breakfast this morning:

    https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/disability-royal-commission-terms-of-reference-just-spin/10814468

    Late yesterday, the prime minister allowed the longest ever question time, two-and-a-half hours, in an apparent attempt to head off another potentially embarrassing vote, this time one calling for a royal commission into the disability sector.

    The Greens Senator Jordan Steele-John, who’d moved the motion for the royal commission in the Senate, was in the Lower House watching this chaos, heckling the government clearly furious at the time wasting.
    ————————————
    Go Jordan, he’s doing great
    Hard to imagine another political party in Australia contemplating giving a disabled young adult the support and position to push for something that impacts directly on the lives of so many marginal Australians and their families. Too many professional politicians scrabbling at the trough in the majors mostly.

  43. Can’t PM May ask for a postponement of Brexit?

    If so at what point does it suit her to do so? I’d have thought at this stage she could use it as a threat against the extremists in her party. “Sensible deal or I delay”..

    There was some analysis on the Lawfare podcast that suggested Europe would give them 2 or 3 weeks, if the Parliament had come to a position, to implement it, but that there was almost zero chance of Europe giving an extension that would cross over the European parliament elections.

    If I was Europe I wouldn’t even give them a few weeks. What is in it for Europe?

  45. Cud Chewer:
    The only way out of the current Brexit mess is a second popular vote….
    When in doubt or running in circles on crucial matters… you can always ask the People.

    A second referendum is a lose – lose. If Brexit wins again how stupid do you look and if remain wins you’ve got 40 – 45% of the population with a genuine grievance and a right to be angry and active for decades. Particularly the conservatives would be hurt by that as some of the loudest and angriest and most active brexiters are conservatives.

  46. The Tennessee Valley Authority board of directors voted to shut down two aging coal-fired power plants, defying a tweet from President Trump on Monday urging the agency to keep one of them open.

    The TVA directors voted overwhelmingly to close the Paradise 3 plant in Kentucky and the Bull Run plant in Tennessee. Three of the four people appointed by Trump to the TVA board joined the 6-1 majority voting to close down the Paradise coal unit, and all four joined the unanimous vote to retire Bull Run.

    “It is not about coal. This decision is about economics,” TVA chief executive William D. Johnson said. “It’s about keeping rates as low as feasible.”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/tva-defies-trump-votes-to-shut-down-two-aging-coal-fired-power-plants/2019/02/14/6cc0c9f8-3077-11e9-86ab-5d02109aeb01_story.html?utm_term=.29f2037910f3

  47. Re JSJ

    “After the mayhem and epic filibuster unfolded the government insisted it was not aware of the motion on a royal commission.So, are the government’s intentions any clearer this morning?”.

    The Coalition had voted against a Disability RC and Schomo tried to say he had no idea what was happening in the Senate… yeah right. Pathetic is too polite…. choose from gutless, conniving, weak minded, arrogant, dismissive or my frequent flier , Ass….. Keep at him JSJ, Shorty’s got your back.

  48. Pegasus
    says:
    Senator Collins, whose term was due to expire on 30 June this year, is expected to be replaced on Labor’s Victorian Senate ticket by Raff Ciccone, an official at the Shop, Distributive and Allied Employees Association (SDA), the same union she worked for before entering Parliament.
    ________________________________________________
    You have to wonder how long supermarket workers are going to be managed by this clique of Catholics. Let’s hope the RAFFWU can start to remove the influence of this disgrace.

  49. “After almost 2 decades of asylum seekers and refugees being demonised by the two major parties, and with the public sentiment starting to change, Shorten is finally discovering some spine.”….

    It was Rudd (= ALP) who humanised border protection and the issue of asylum seekers in his first term as PM… Where was the “demonization” of refugees back then?…. Rudd was crucified by the Liberals on this issue: How did the Greens defend and support Rudd?…. Alone and unsupported, the ALP finally accepted that a fully humanitarian policy towards refugees was a lost cause in this Democracy at the time. It still seems to be, to a great extent, in spite of this very specific and limited Medevac success.

    Now the desperate and hysterical Liberals are going full Monty trying to use Medevac as an issue to organise their political propaganda for the election. If the People do not react to their propaganda as the Liberals expect, then it would be a very strong evidence that things are truly changing in the mind of a majority of Australians, and so, once they return to Government at the coming federal election, the ALP must reintroduce more humanitarianism into our border protection policies, without losing control of the borders.

    Unbeknownst to them, the hysterical reaction of the Liberals is introducing a strong test for the validity of their political assumptions….

  50. Just glanced at the front page of the Australian while getting my morning coffee –

    D Shanahan – ‘what was supposed to be a bad week for the Government ended up a bad week for the opposition’

    Seriously – what alternative universe is this reporting on, from my perception there has been no governing this week from the government just the opposite, the opposition has controlled what they wanted.

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