Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

The second Newspoll for the year finds no continuation of the Coalition’s recent improving trend.

After a period of improving poll results for the Coalition, the latest Newspoll records a tiny shift on primary votes to Labor, but not another to alter their existing lead of 53-47 from a fortnight ago. Labor is up one point on the primary vote to 39%, after a three-point drop last time, while the Coalition is steady on 37%, retaining their two-point gain in the last poll. The Greens are steady on 9%, while One Nation is down a point to 5%, the lowest it’s been in a year. Scott Morrison’s personal ratings are improved, with approval up three to 43% and disapproval down two to 45%, and his lead as prime minister out from 43-36 to 44-35. Bill Shorten is down one on approval to 36% and up one on disapproval to 51%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1567.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,273 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. He may not have been sacked in NZ but he left early, leaving in his wake government enquiries and a minister resigning. One MP describing him as a cross between Rasputin and Crocodile Dundee.

  3. [‘He has not lost the constitutional mandate to lead the government and he remains Prime Minister, but he is a diminished figure in a weakened government with a conditional mandate.’]

    What now FauxMo: let a few boats through? That’s about your last option.

  4. Phelps, Banks, Sharkie, McGowan.
    A historic moment for womyn power.
    Go you go good things!

    It was also a big day for woke hipster Adam Bandt.

  5. Just up on the ABC’s blog:

    “There’s been some commentary that this is the first time a government has lost a legislative vote in the House since 1929. This is not the case – the Fadden government lost a vote on a Budget amendment in 1941.”

    Well, yes, technically. But that was specifically meant to be a vote of no confidence to bring the government down, so a bit of a special case.

  8. “Well done all the ALP, Greens and X-benchers. A good outcome today with a bit of icing on top.”

    Hear hear.

    The need to rid this country of this backward-looking, divided, spiv-loving, water-thieving, climate-denying government is all that matters from here till poll day.

    What’s the next issue ALP, Greens and the X-women can defeat the government on? Serious question. The X-women need wins to get re-elected, so they’ll play ball.

    Go tougher on the banks? eg their Executive pay? Watch the LNP SQUIRM! Maybe the X-bench would fold there, but climate policy?

    Make merry folks. They’ve lost control of parliament: Irrespective of how they huff and puff, a minority government does not project strength.

  10. The next mission is to extend the sitting times. That’s a tougher mission because it will require every crossbencher on board, including Katter.

  12. Brent spends most of his time every day saying Labor is doing everything wrong. He’s a self-important blowhard of the highest order.

    Jones and Credlin are happy enough in the echo chamber, continuing to wonder how the voting public get it so wrong and disagree with them. I suspect it won’t matter what the govt says, because no one is listening to the govt any more.

  15. WOW

    And that was just day one!

    If this legislation today is as detrimental to border security as the Government says, then they would have no option but to call an election, immediately.

    By not doing so, according to them, is placing the nation at risk, so in allowing these laws to stand they are being negligent towards national security.

    😆

  17. Terrific comment in The Guardian – concerning Coalition’s important announcement yesterday:

    “Hilarious that the Liberals have decided Australia needs a sports integrity regime and tribunal, but they object to us having an anti-corruption body to review the actions of politicians, public servants and others.”

  18. While I and many,many fair-minded people, across the political spectrum, celebrate an historic victory for humanity and parliamentary democracy today, I wonder, with our supplicant media, how many people will hear only about the decision and not about the F-up by Porter. Surely,his attempts to cover up the reason for declaring the Bill unconstitutional,being ignored by the Speaker and unwittingly,abysmally giving the proponents of the Bill the way around his so-smart hatchet job. This F-up will not be forgotten in the Party- that is,if he survives the storm his team have brought on themselves. Whats the bet Julie will stand next election, denying him the chance to jump seats to save his skin.
    As for Alan Jones declaring this defeat will result in Labor losing the election-well , all I can say- hands up if you remember ” Comical Ali” declaring victory on live tv as Coalition bombs exploded behind him as Baghdad fell.
    Phew. What a day. Scomo on his knees tonight. Something about being forsaken?

  19. The only conceivable reasons that someone seeking asylum in Australia would get on a throwaway boat to make the trip here might be:

    1. They don’t know what they’re in for and think it’s like pre-Tampa. Possible.
    2. Some evade capture, make it to Australia and melt into the community. They contact family back home. The Government knows this but covers it up. Seems unlikely.

  20. “And Andrew Wilkie”

    Oh yeah.

    And yes, thats the line: if national security is at stake, why isn’t there an election, now?
    Voters will be entitled to conclude that ScoMo was just full of bull the last few weeks.

  22. I wonder, with our supplicant media, how many people will hear only about the decision and not about the F-up by Porter.

    Well you can count me as someone who hasn’t heard that.

  23. Labor will introduce ammendments to the encryption legislation in the senate tomorrow and will push in the House to extend sitting days.

    The sitting days debate is the big one. Brings in the RC and the poor response from Morrison and co.

    While the vote today was important for so many reasons the banks are a real world personal issue for Joe Public.

    Fat times ahead!

  24. The Tories had the Christmas break to engineer a plan to counter the Phelps’ bill. They failed miserably, Shorten taking the wind out of their sails:

    ‘By now, the bill was Bill Shorten’s bill, for he had spent the day negotiating with crossbenchers a slightly modified approach to medical evacuations for refugees.

    And somewhere along the way, his legislation declared that doctors on a medical panel would not be remunerated.’

    Well done Bill – seemingly a plodder but obviously well on top of his opponents.

  26. Yes. Today looked like Shorten was already in government. Admittedly a minority one. But managing it better than the ones with the commission.

  27. The sitting days debate is the big one. Brings in the RC and the poor response from Morrison and co.

    While the vote today was important for so many reasons the banks are a real world personal issue for Joe Public.

    Fat times ahead!

    And I have to work and will miss it!! 🙁

    And tomorrow afternoon and early evening OH has a work function to attend that he is dragging me along to. I’m already plotting how to get out of it 😀

  32. Onebobsworth:

    [‘.. hands up if you remember ” Comical Ali” declaring victory on live tv as Coalition bombs exploded behind him as Baghdad fell.’]

    I raise my hands and dips my lid to Shorten’s acuity.

  33. Kent Brockman says:
    Tuesday, February 12, 2019 at 9:15 pm

    As a reader rather than a contributor:

    I, for one, welcome our new interventionist overlord (that’s you WB).
    ______________________________
    Well said Kent. Are you willing to round up others to work in the salt mines?

  34. Has Murdoch & the Liberal followers realised that those that might be concerned about “stop the boats ” aren’t in the demographic of OZ readership..

  35. My intel from Labor is that Katter’s still not on board for extending sittings. His vote’s the 76th needed for the absolute majority required by the standing orders.

  36. Rocket,

    I doubt Freedom boy is too comfortable at the moment, he knows Labor will get around to him sometime, also there is the complaint to Speaker that may help ramp it up.

    For the moment I’d say Labor is happy to let him stew. 🙂

  37. Toby Esterhase says:

    My intel from Labor is that Katter’s still not on board for extending sittings.

    Of course he is against it. Just think how many extra days he has to not turn up. 😉

  38. Do we trust Morrison to be good to his word? Or is he doing a mean and tricky Howard by wordsmithing this in order to run interference?

    The bill was passed by the House a little after 6:00pm, leaving too little time for the bill to return to the Senate on Tuesday.

    It would ordinarily return to the Senate the following day, but Senator Mathias Cormann has previously indicated the Government would do what it could to prevent the bill becoming law.

    Given the 11th-hour surprise of the constitutional argument run by the Government, there were fears the Coalition might seek further delays.

    Addressing these concerns, Prime Minister Scott Morrison said on Tuesday evening the legislation would “follow the normal process”.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-12/asylum-seeker-medical-evacuation-bill-what-next/10802918

  40. Toby,

    They just need to tell Katter that if Parliament is extended, it doesn’t mean that he has to turn up!

    That should get him.

  41. Toby,

    It would not be bad for labor if Morrison survived a vote on extending sitting days.

    Just more gas for labor to push the “ government protecting the big end “ and not caring about the thousands of victims of the banks.

    Cheers.

  43. Addressing these concerns, Prime Minister Scott Morrison said on Tuesday evening the legislation would “follow the normal process”.

    I assume “the normal process” is that oppositions don’t pass legislation.

  46. a r @ #2142 Tuesday, February 12th, 2019 – 6:28 pm

    Addressing these concerns, Prime Minister Scott Morrison said on Tuesday evening the legislation would “follow the normal process”.

    I assume “the normal process” is that oppositions don’t pass legislation.

    I trust this coalition govt as far as I can throw it and wouldn’t be surprised at all if its Senate leaders tried it on to delay, delay, delay.

  47. Actually, the Liberals could have made more of their Franking Credits inquiry if they’d appointed someone to run it who was calm and mature. The problem with Mr Wilson, splendidly captured in a First Dog on the Moon cartoon in the last day or two, is that he’s a smarmy piece of work, who always seems to over egg things, and doesn’t understand the benefit of a steady, unimpeachable process. Dyson Heydon was the same in his Royal Commission, which sank like a stone. People who manifestly aren’t partisan spear carriers often turn out to be much more deadly, as Mr Hayne has demonstrated.

  48. Evening all. Beautiful night, you can almost smell the democracy in the air. Apart from the short term success, today was a great day for Labor in terms of the potential to work with the cross benchers should Labor have to form a minority governmetn after May 18. As before with Gillard, the cross benchers clearly do not want to deal with a bunch of misogynistic bully boys, which is exactly what they will get from Team Blue. In reality I think Labor will comfortably get a majority, but in the House and Senate it could be useful to have some reasonable people to negotiate with.

    I am relieved to say that with the amendments and no grandstanding from the Greens, the final bill looks quite robust.

    Also noting the media coverage of the return of Hakeen Araibi to Melbourne, ScumMo will not get much bounce from playing the national security card. After ministers like Dutton have been caught out using their security powers to get au pair visas for mates, and Cash calling the media to an AFP raid, it has no credibility.

    If we are forced to hear suggestions that Cory Bernardi can “fillibuster” in the Australian Senate, can I now refer to ScumMo as a “Lame Duck Prime Minister”?

  50. Yeah I’d reckon Katter would love nothing more than having a crack at the banks. Though Morrison has said he will withdraw a water deal for his electorate if he does.

    You’d think that would actually help Katter hold on against a LNP candidate, if they’re minded to treat his electorate so badly because they want to defend banks…

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