Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

The second Newspoll for the year finds no continuation of the Coalition’s recent improving trend.

After a period of improving poll results for the Coalition, the latest Newspoll records a tiny shift on primary votes to Labor, but not another to alter their existing lead of 53-47 from a fortnight ago. Labor is up one point on the primary vote to 39%, after a three-point drop last time, while the Coalition is steady on 37%, retaining their two-point gain in the last poll. The Greens are steady on 9%, while One Nation is down a point to 5%, the lowest it’s been in a year. Scott Morrison’s personal ratings are improved, with approval up three to 43% and disapproval down two to 45%, and his lead as prime minister out from 43-36 to 44-35. Bill Shorten is down one on approval to 36% and up one on disapproval to 51%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1567.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,273 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. It was never in any doubt that Labor would out wedge the Coalition. This government has taken ineptness to a level beyond any previous government.

  2. I’m really looking forward to the deluge of commentators over the next few days, with their “Morrison can still turn things around” op eds.

    Fantasy is a favorite genre of mine.

  3. Many grateful thanks to the poster who mentioned Bosch today. Also the mention of a movie Green something – tracking now —-Book .

    Casting Bosch S04E5 to TV commencing 10 – 9 –

    Goodnight all. 📺💤

  4. Henry:

    [‘An occasional name change also helps mavis, yeah?’]

    Yes, Henry, it’s cathartic. How dare you impliedly recall my original screen persona? I’ve forgotten same; so should you. I mean, an old woman from time to time makes the occasional mistake – yee with no sin(?).

  5. Pedant

    Why would Julie Bishop want to accept a poisoned chalice?

    Why the hell not ? Make history, be the PM , not many get that gig, if she loses it sure won’t be blamed on her.

  6. Simon² Katich

    Such a risky strategy

    Who’d know what they’ll do. The whole last 5 years has been a study in risk. Relaxing patrols would be easy enough I would have thought. Anyhow, we have little idea what they’re doing.

  7. Pedant @ #2049 Tuesday, February 12th, 2019 – 8:17 pm

    I might say that I neither particular like nor dislike Mr Shorten, but I do think that he’s a better communicator than he’s sometimes given credit for, and that he has a diverse set of skills, especially in negotiating and in working through issues systematically, which will probably equip him to be a pretty competent PM.

    Not to mention that he knows how to delegate and empower his team!

  8. Life can be crap at times and then along comes a day like today where decent treatment of other human beings matter and you can go to bed knowing that all hope is not lost.

  9. It would be sensible for the LNP to go to Bishop. They would get one of their biggest fundraisers back and increase their chances in Western Australia.

    So I don’t expect them to do it.

  10. Pedant

    Bishop has an ego bigger than Everest. She would love to be our first woman PM.

    She might tell the faint hearted that she would risk a half-senate only poll in May and hang on for the Reps till the end of the year.

    A few marginal seat holders would get paid for another six months and a few might even hold their seats.

    Risky? Yep but when the chips are down who wouldn’t deal with the devil?

  11. Pyne outed himself as a supporter of republican regicide! :).

    Pyne makes an unlikely and unconvincing Oliver Cromwell, Lord Protector of the Commonwealth!!

  12. Rossmcg,

    Yes, I had thought Pyne, but also wondered if Porter was trying to establish his credentials as a smart tactician for future leadership aspirations. Pyne’s performance this afternoon somewhat mirrored his contribution on “Insiders” on Sunday – desperately setting off in several different directions at the same time, talking rubbish at an astonishing speed …

  13. I confess I’m pretty impressed Labor didn’t fold on this. I had my doubts, but I was wrong.

    Its still imperfect, but a far better setup for sick detainees- and politically, backing down would have just handed the LNP a victory they dont deserve.

    Symbolically its also a shot fired across the bow: we dont think you look competent enough for a fear campaign, ScoFo. You and your divided, hapless fleet of second-raters.

    Tomrorow, all ScoFo’s fulminating will look like empty bullshit if he doesnt call an election now.

    And frankly, thats my bet.

  14. poroti 8.19pm

    Well, let’s see. But if Ms Bishop were to take the PM’s job and then be crushed in an election a few months later, it would be a toss up whether history remembered her as the second female PM, or as the first female PM who was such a patsy, so obsessed with getting her name on the trophy, that she was prepared to accept a hospital pass from the men who had spurned her only six months before.

    It’s a bit like the Nobel Prize for Literature: it’s easier to remember someone like Boris Pasternak who refused it than many of the people who have won it.


  15. rossmcg says:
    Tuesday, February 12, 2019 at 8:23 pm

    Pedant

    Bishop has an ego bigger than Everest. She would love to be our first woman PM.

    She has missed out on that gig

  16. Did I say first woman PM?

    What was I thinking … maybe first Tory woman pm

    A thousand pardons to the Gillard fans … of which I was one .

  17. @rossmcg……………”Bishop has an ego bigger than Everest. She would love to be our first woman PM.”………….

    Lol…..Julia Gillard beat her to it.

  18. I noticed Tingle didn’t mention the second part of SG’s advice on constitutionality of the bill on 7.30 tonight .. the bit that said in any event it was probably a matter for the High Court

  19. Just channel flicking and lobbed onto Sky.
    Coz
    Alan Jones was very excited that by today’s actions in addition to the negative gearing and imputation policies mistakes Labor handed the election back to the Coalies.

    Credlin agreed ……. Shorten is making so many mistakes now.

    To be kind and generous to them, they are idiots.

  20. Vot a vanker Morrison is:

    [“Votes will come and they will go, they do not trouble me,” he said.’]

    If I didn’t know him better I’d postulate that he’s a former advertising executive, who may’ve been sacked after 18 months into his contract, for reasons that have still yet to be explained.

  21. Peter Brent makes an unconvincing case for Oppositions to adopt a small target strategy (i.e. don’t say anything of consequence about your social and economic program for government).

    “Chirpy Chris Bowen gives the impression of not having a care in the world, but I suspect behind closed doors things aren’t necessarily so relaxed. Labor remains the probable victor this year, but recent polls have shown signs of narrowing. Much more of that and concern will turn to panic at Labor headquarters.”

    https://insidestory.org.au/frankly-courageous-shadow-minister/?fbclid=IwAR1JAO00F1ZSOdtCqdHg5AMNkoL6ZeaisuBD_kpy17K7EL5qoPXrHCb7NmY

  22. Speaking of zjulia Gillard some Labor people are trolling Dutton with her government record saying minority government needn’t be that hard 😆

  23. Nicholas @ #2078 Tuesday, February 12th, 2019 – 8:31 pm

    Peter Brent makes an unconvincing case for Oppositions to adopt a small target strategy (i.e. don’t say anything of consequence about your social and economic program for government).

    “Chirpy Chris Bowen gives the impression of not having a care in the world, but I suspect behind closed doors things aren’t necessarily so relaxed. Labor remains the probable victor this year, but recent polls have shown signs of narrowing. Much more of that and concern will turn to panic at Labor headquarters.”

    https://insidestory.org.au/frankly-courageous-shadow-minister/?fbclid=IwAR1JAO00F1ZSOdtCqdHg5AMNkoL6ZeaisuBD_kpy17K7EL5qoPXrHCb7NmY

    That would have been written before today’s essential.

  24. sonar @ #2059 Tuesday, February 12th, 2019 – 8:22 pm

    Life can be crap at times and then along comes a day like today where decent treatment of other human beings matter and you can go to bed knowing that all hope is not lost.

    Agree. There were a few earlier arguing credit to particular parties/MP’s. But the winner was democracy and the asylum seekers. And the unity of non government was great to see. Credit to all.

  25. poroti @ #1700 Tuesday, February 12th, 2019 – 7:19 pm

    Why the hell not ? Make history, be the PM , not many get that gig, if she loses it sure won’t be blamed on her.

    Disagree. If Bishop leads the Coalition to a loss, the RWNJ’s will be resurgent immediately thereafter. They’ll declare that the real problem was that they never lurched hard enough to the right, and then the next next government will be even worse than the current one.

    Much better if Dutton (or Morrison) leads them to oblivion, and the RWNJ’s (quite rightfully) cop all the blame. Then maybe Australia can have a center-left and a center-right party, instead of a center-left party and an off-the-map right-wing crazy party.

  26. guytaur

    I want to see a journalsi put the contents of ?someone’s tweet to Dutton, along the lines of –

    “Mr.Dutton – your unsuccessful challenge against Malcolm Turnbull last year led to him leaving the Parliament, and Kerryn Phelps winning his seat. Julia banks also resigned from the Liberal party as a result of your challenge and sat on the cross-bench. Both of those women voted to defeat the government, and without their votes Labor could not have won that vote. So how do you feel about being the cause of your own government being the first in ninety years to lose a substantial vote in the Parliament?”

  27. Chris Hatcher writing crap again. Scott Morrison did not restore control of our borders as immigration minister. He, and his successor have done zero. zip. zilch to stem the flow of overstay visitors who arrive by plane. Or stop the endless flow of contraband into the country. This government did not even ‘stop the boats’ – all the hard work was done by Rudd II. Sovereign Borders was a mopping up exercise at best and the bellicose hyper partisan politics played by Abbott, Morrison and Dutton irreparably damaged the prospects of a regional based solution being reached with our neighbours.

    But hey. Hartcher is a CPG swinging dick and no doubt they’ll all be lining up to clap him on the back for producing such a polished turd as this article.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/prime-minister-s-strength-turns-into-a-weakness-20190212-p50xd2.html

  28. Today was more about shafting Morrison and Dutton than about humanity or empathy. Probably 90-10%. Still a worthy accomplishment though.

  29. “Credlin agreed ……. Shorten is making so many mistakes now.

    To be kind and generous to them, they are idiots.”

    Psyclaw sets new record for understatement of the gobsmackingly bleeding obvious. 🙂

    ALP have set up, maneuvered and negotiated these amendments through though the HoR and i reckon they will get them through the Senate. A bill passed, AND the Muppets embarrassed after all the sneaky dumb things have been tried to stop it. Well done all the ALP, Greens and X-benchers. A good outcome today with a bit of icing on top. 🙂

  30. One interesting aspect of today’s outcome (for those that find this sort of thing interesting) is that it sets a precedent. The next time a government loses a vote on a bill from the Senate which they deem to be a money bill, constitutional law experts like whatsername will be able to confidently proclaim there’s no need for them to resign because in a landmark case in 2019 etc. etc.

  31. Arguably the most execrable pollie in parliament is now on 7:30 defending his actions over a number of years. I’m sure he enjoyed the role of bad cop when serving as a drug-squad detective in the QPS.

  32. It’s a given that Labor will be in the media’s sights from the instant they secure victory.
    A Look At Me junkie like Bishop may think she’s got a better chance making her run from Opposition. She’ll be assured of sympathetic coverage.
    I never watch Sky so I don’t know where they’d figure in this.

  33. “Mr.Dutton – your unsuccessful challenge against Malcolm Turnbull last year led to him leaving the Parliament, and Kerryn Phelps winning his seat. Julia banks also resigned from the Liberal party as a result of your challenge and sat on the cross-bench. Both of those women voted to defeat the government, and without their votes Labor could not have won that vote. So how do you feel about being the cause of your own government being the first in ninety years to lose a substantial vote in the Parliament?”

    THIS!

  34. @Nicholas,
    Peter Brent had something useful to say once, but like a lot of commentators he got too invested in his own ideas and they now lead him to say silly things for the sake of being seen as distinctive. The Piping Shrike is another — more extreme — example of the same phenomenon.

  35. Outside left:

    [‘Mavis , he is up for his third sacking. We know a bit about the other two.’]

    We could say we know about his third.

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