Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

The second Newspoll for the year finds no continuation of the Coalition’s recent improving trend.

After a period of improving poll results for the Coalition, the latest Newspoll records a tiny shift on primary votes to Labor, but not another to alter their existing lead of 53-47 from a fortnight ago. Labor is up one point on the primary vote to 39%, after a three-point drop last time, while the Coalition is steady on 37%, retaining their two-point gain in the last poll. The Greens are steady on 9%, while One Nation is down a point to 5%, the lowest it’s been in a year. Scott Morrison’s personal ratings are improved, with approval up three to 43% and disapproval down two to 45%, and his lead as prime minister out from 43-36 to 44-35. Bill Shorten is down one on approval to 36% and up one on disapproval to 51%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1567.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,273 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

  1. Seems like a good way to start. PB picked it.

    PB Newspoll-Poll 2019-02-10
    Actual: ALP 53 to 47 LNP
    PB mean: ALP 53.9 to 46.1 LNP
    PB median: ALP 53.0 to 47.0 LNP
    No. Of PB Respondents: 66

    ALP / LNP
    53 / 47 Al Pal
    52 / 48 Bennelong Lurker
    52 / 48 Bert
    56 / 44 bilko
    53 / 47 BK
    53.5 / 46.5 booleanbach
    54 / 46 bug1
    53 / 47 Clem Attlee
    52 / 48 Confessions
    99 / 1 Dan Gulberry
    51 / 49 DaretoTread
    54 / 46 Davidwh
    55 / 45 Dog’s Breakfast
    51 / 49 Douglas and Milko
    53 / 47 electionblogger2019.simplesite.com
    53 / 47 Fozzie Logic
    53 / 47 Frednk *permanent
    54 / 46 Fulvio Sammut
    57 / 43 Gecko
    55 / 45 Goll
    56 / 44 grimace
    55 / 45 guytaur
    53 / 47 Harry “Snapper” Organs
    52 / 48 Holden Hillbilly
    53 / 47 imacca
    52 / 48 It’s Time
    52 / 48 j341983
    53 / 47 John Reidy
    56 / 44 KayJay
    54 / 46 klasib
    53 / 47 Late Riser
    53 / 47 Margaret Kitchener
    54 / 46 Matt31
    52 / 48 Mavis Smith
    52 / 48 meher baba
    54 / 46 Mr Ed
    54 / 46 OH
    54 / 46 Onebobsworth
    54 / 46 Outside Left
    54 / 46 pica
    54 / 46 Player One
    54 / 46 poroti
    51 / 49 Prof. Higgins
    53 / 47 Puffytmd
    53 / 47 Quasar
    55 / 45 Question
    53 / 47 Red13
    53 / 47 rhwombat
    51 / 49 Rossa
    52 / 48 SCOUT
    53 / 47 SilentMajority
    52 / 48 sonar
    50 / 50 south
    57 / 43 Sprocket_
    53 / 47 Socrates
    54 / 46 Sohar
    53 / 47 steve davis
    52 / 48 Steve777
    53 / 47 sustainable future
    54 / 46 The real Dave
    53 / 47 Tricot
    53 / 47 Upnorth
    53 / 47 Wayne
    53 / 47 Whisper
    53 / 47 Yabba
    52 / 48 Zoidlord

  2. Mavis

    Yes. Yesterday Katherine Murphy penned a watch for the LNP fightback.

    I think she means the scare campaigns.

    As we saw with Workchoices facts of living experience are stronger than their campaigns.

  3. It seems to me this margin is sort of baked in and is the result we will probably see at the election.
    Up to labor’s to lose now I would suggest, Bill and co need to hold their nerve and continue to be bold and upfront with policy announcements.
    Short of a massive blunder, own goal etc, hard to see labor losing.
    In fact there would be more chance of the margin blowing out as who knows what subtle tricks Turnbull has up his sleeve to slyly derail any momentum schomo may pick up.
    We’re also due for another coalition mp to bail out any day soon, which won’t help either.

  4. These polling numbers seem pretty hard-baked in the Morrison era by now – a Labor lead that bounces around the 52-54 range, with primaries for both the majors in the high 30s, the Greens a point or two shy of 10%, One Nation bobbing around at a bit under 5%, and “others” around the 10% mark.

    This has actually been the story for about two and half years, though things did seem to be tightening a tad last winter, before the Libs imploded and kinifed their one publicly palateable PM option.

    My feeling is that Jo & Joe Public largely made their minds up months ago, that it was time to turf out the dysfunctional mob currently on the Treasury benches, and to give the other lot a go, albeit without any great enthusiasm for the alternative.

    It seems all but certain now that the election won’t be until May, and that Labor will win a handy (though I doubt a landslide) majority – my stab in the dark is that Labor will end up with about 85 seats, for a majority of about 20.

  5. Maybe Campbell is thinking about this …

    Queensland election 2015: Campbell Newman enjoys surge in support in two new polls

    The latest Newspoll in Saturday’s Weekend Australian showed the LNP improving its position, 53 per cent to Labor’s 47 per cent, on a two-party preferred basis.
    Updated 11 Jan 2015, 12:52am

  6. Shorten’s personal numbers still terrible. I think the only way for the government to win is with the most sustained personal attack ads on Shorten in Australian political history. Full on U.S style stuff. Andrew Hirst, get in touch, for the right $ I’ve got a few ideas. 🙂

  7. ALP (steve) = 0 + 39 + 7.5 + 2 + 4.5 (oth) = 53 (+0.6)
    ALP (KB) = 0 + 39+7.37+7.38+0.13 = 53.88 (+0.5)

    Previous Newspoll
    ALP (steve) = 0 + 38 + 7.5 + 2.4 + 4.5 (oth) = 52.4
    ALP (KB) = 0 + 38+7.37+7.38+0.13 = 53.37

  8. yUP…53 / 47 so….normal service at around 53/47 has returned after their #leadershit.

    Honestly, i reckon it may just not shift at all here to the election?? Its been in dire territory for the Muppets how long now???

    However….how would it be if in two weeks, when the parliament has closes…again…when they have thrown the whole “Fear sick brown people in boats!!!”, “Fear unaccompanied Saudi Girls!!!”, “Fear Bill, he’s a cumming fer yer hard earned!!! “…..”Love Bankers cause they are all warm and fuzzy and DESERVE to get so manage your super because you need to FEAR those thuggish unionized Nurses!!!”……………..and then their TPP moves to 54 / 46??

    Even a movement strictly MOE and the stench of panic from Liberals offices would be outrageous and a joy to behold.. 🙂

  9. Remember the great LNP narrowing mid 2018?

    Apparently it is now accepted as a Canberra Press Gallery article of faith that Lucien got the polls basically to as close as you can go to evens because one Newspoll was 51-49 and ‘internal Liberal tracking’ polls had the government ahead in the marginals. In truth Newspoll has relied upon a fandango to calculate preferences, whereas the old school tried and tested method would never have seen a number better than 48 for the government in any Newspoll over the past two years. I wont even bother going into LOLs mode to discuss the internal tracking polls given Longman. …

    Now, the real number is. 54-46, using the tried and true method of preference allocation. This after the summer torpor. Unless Scrot plays a blinder over the next fortnight me thinks the LNPare in a world of pain.

  10. Thanks Late Riser for the list.
    My thinking was if nothing much happened since the last poll, then pick the status quo.
    The Sky News Twitter poll/survey, seems to indicate:
    a) Most voters aren’t concerned about the franking credits changes, and
    b) Self funded retirees aren’t on Twitter.

    Perhaps Labor is getting some points for standing firm on an issue.

  11. Nath; i think LOTO numbers are terrible because people prefer the current PM to stay the PM until the election, its a measure of the electorates desire for stability, and the chief reason his party’s rating are so bad.

  12. Will now be very interesting what Esseential shows after one week of Parliament and what Newspoll shows after two.

    I think the Coalition improvement has all been because of the summer break. Put Morrison on tv every night and things will get worse for them. People will soon realise they are achieving precisely nothing.

  13. nath

    ‘ I think the only way for the government to win is with the most sustained personal attack ads on Shorten in Australian political history’

    The government has thought the same thing for the last five years. It hasn’t seemed to work.

    And, as Shorten’s ratings don’t seem to affect the willingness of people to vote Labor, it’s probably pointless.

  14. bug1 says:
    Sunday, February 10, 2019 at 10:14 pm

    Nath; i think LOTO numbers are terrible because people prefer the current PM to stay the PM until the election, its a measure of the electorates desire for stability, and the chief reason his party’s rating are so bad.
    _______________________
    It’s not neccessarily the PPM, it’s the Approval/Disapproval figures and other detailed personal numbers that have been done in the past, particularly relating to trustworthiness.

  15. zoomster says:
    Sunday, February 10, 2019 at 10:15 pm

    nath

    ‘ I think the only way for the government to win is with the most sustained personal attack ads on Shorten in Australian political history’

    The government has thought the same thing for the last five years. It hasn’t seemed to work.

    And, as Shorten’s ratings don’t seem to affect the willingness of people to vote Labor, it’s probably pointless.
    ____________________
    Maybe. I still think he could be dragging the vote a little bit. Of course there’s no way to know for sure, and at 53 it doesn’t really matter I suppose.

  16. “Unless Scrot plays a blinder over the next fortnight”

    He will!! But likely in a way that is so ridiculously silly and self harming that you’ll want to go blind or look away and the sheer intensity of your stunned morbid fascination will keep you looking.

    At the moment i would not even try to predict the Coalitions stuff ups for the week. I’ll bet they will be ones that no-one has even thought of yet. doGs above, we must be just about getting to the point where something involving mango butter and shaved, artificial restrained livestock will come up??

  17. I’m not surprised by this outcome.
    If I were Scott, i’d be looking to pull the pin asap if only to try and lock in a 52/48 wipeout, save a bunch of key seats and then try and rebuild.

  18. “And, as Shorten’s ratings don’t seem to affect the willingness of people to vote Labor, it’s probably pointless.”

    Pointless?? Which means that the Libs will do it with gusto. 🙂

  19. Hmmmmmm…one thing that will be interesting over the next two weeks is legislation to do with the banking RC?? Pyne reckons they are on a go slow with that……not what people want to hear.

    Its important and shouldn’t be rushed….but the ALP now has an opportunity to put up some things related to it that could be simple no-brainers that can be done quite quickly.

  20. ‘The Age’ editorial —

    ‘Should Mr Wilson not quit or be stood down, he will do far more damage to his party and profession. He will be a daily, unaffordable liability to the government. Politics and principle render his position indefensible. The wound he has caused himself and the government is self-inflicted and will fester. Better to cauterise the situation now. It is a clear case where doing the right thing is also the smartest politics. And that should always be the case.’

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/mp-tim-wilson-s-position-is-untenable-20190210-p50wvf.html

  21. This result will put an end to the “the gap is closing a little” from some LNP fans in the media such as Riley in the West and one or two others who are wishing upon a star.
    Still, it is conceivable that the LNP can come back, but then I used to think/hope this would be the case when Labor was 48-52 down the the latter years of government.
    As others have mentioned, I think the electorate may have made up its mind.
    While nothing can be taken for granted – and Labor would be stupid to do so – better the figures this way for Labor than the other way round……………………………..

  22. Zoomster. It could also be the best thing for Tim Wilson in the never ending internal jockeying for position though. Being the face of opposition to the franking credit changes is gonna be good for him in the long run with ‘the base’.

  23. Seriously though, I think what we are seeing here is that the Coalition are trying to take people for fools, however, to survive in this world you have to be pretty cluey and to be plugged into what is going on in the world and to our planet. In fact, the only ones who are denying reality these days are the comfortably well-off Golden Oldies. They don’t have to worry about what the world is going to be like in 10 or 20 years, because most of them won’t be around to see it. So they don’t care.

    All they DO care about is themselves and their creature comforts. Not all of them, sure, but the Grey Nomad demographic seems intent on living out their time on this planet by the motto, ‘Bugger you, Jack! I’m okay’. Sad really.

    And what is even sadder is that it is this demographic that the Coalition is playing to. That old Baby Boomer bulge that carried John Howard aloft for so many years.

  24. Kill Bill strategy simply does not work.They just do not get it month after month the same old shite attacking Shorten over and over and over again. Message for the MSM and others: IT DOES NOT WORK, you empty headed pack of numpties.

  25. Yes, some parts of the banking recommendations are straight forward to leglislate, others less so. One thing that will be expected is more money in the budget for ASIC and APRA.

    One supposedly complicated item is banning commissions for loan brokers, as ‘competition’ may be impacted, but there is no real competition in this area, just the illusion of it. Borrowers still pay more.

  26. steve davis
    says:
    Sunday, February 10, 2019 at 10:32 pm
    Kill Bill strategy simply does not work.They just do not get it month after month the same old shite attacking Shorten over and over and over again. Message for the MSM and others: IT DOES NOT WORK, you empty headed pack of numpties.
    __________________________________
    Yeah but its been a half hearted sad looking attempt though, without much gusto really. I think I did a better job just on PB!

  27. “I think the only way for the government to win is with the most sustained personal attack ads on Shorten in Australian political history. Full on U.S style stuff.”

    That’s all they’ve got.
    They can’t talk about their achievements, they don’t have any that they can say out loud (like helping mates, blocking action on climate change).
    They can’t talk about their policies, they’re poison (slash, cut, privatise, in the longer term dismantle Medicare and social security for those who need it.

    So all they’ve got is to lie, smear, demonise, dogwhistle and cultivate fear and loathing.

  28. “While nothing can be taken for granted – and Labor would be stupid to do so – better the figures this way for Labor than the other way round……………………………..”

    Went to local members gathering last night. People who have campaigned before being got together and starting to get ready for the serious campaign. Safe ALP seat but the message that going to go out was plain.

    We do not take anyone or any seat for granted, and we will campaign hard even in safe seats to try and maximize the Senate vote. ALP machine is seriously ready to roll this time around.

  29. zoomster,
    Being brutally frank, I would have thought that ScoMo and the rest of the straighty 180 Conservatives in the Liberal Party would have jumped at the opportunity to bone the gay guy from Goldstein.

  30. “So all they’ve got is to lie, smear, demonise, dogwhistle and cultivate fear and loathing.”

    Just what they want you to think……..and then, as the election is called….they unleash their secret army of AU PAIRS!!!!! under the command of daS UberPotaoFurher to man the pre-poll voting stations!!!

    Hmmmm…this is Dutton….maybe they will unleash…..ZOMBIE AU PAIRS!!!!!

  31. zoomster
    says:
    Sunday, February 10, 2019 at 10:39 pm
    nath
    If Wilson ends up being a hero to ‘the base’, he is welcome to all 300 of them.
    _________________________________________
    They could be important to him, particularly the self funded retirees in Goldstein. That’s a base he definitely needs to shore up.

  32. Barney in Saigon
    says:
    Sunday, February 10, 2019 at 10:39 pm
    “Half hearted”
    I wouldn’t have thought an RC was “Half hearted”.
    ___________________________________
    They should’ve never had a RC. Better to let the waft of corruption permeate rather than define what happened as either lawful or criminal. But hey, what do I know?

  33. zoomster @ #31 Sunday, February 10th, 2019 – 7:28 pm

    ‘The Age’ editorial —

    ‘Should Mr Wilson not quit or be stood down, he will do far more damage to his party and profession. He will be a daily, unaffordable liability to the government. Politics and principle render his position indefensible. The wound he has caused himself and the government is self-inflicted and will fester. Better to cauterise the situation now. It is a clear case where doing the right thing is also the smartest politics. And that should always be the case.’

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/mp-tim-wilson-s-position-is-untenable-20190210-p50wvf.html

    In the era of Trump I think this is an ambitious assertion.

  34. Succinct belling of the cat on the Cash Refund for No Tax Paid Dividend Imputation rort:

    The pre-eminent principle that positions of public office are positions of public trust has been trashed by Mr Wilson’s misuse of a key parliamentary committee to pursue a political agenda. That agenda involves agitating against the ALP’s policy of ending cash refunds on some company dividends paid to investors who have engineered their finances to produce zero taxable income.

  35. Trump’s schtick has hit a brick wall. Because he hasn’t been able to bully the Democrats into giving him…a Wall.

    So it is fast becoming the case here. Abbott/Dutton and Morrison’s brand of braggadocio boastful and arrogant behavioural politics is fast reaching its Use By Date.

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