After a period of improving poll results for the Coalition, the latest Newspoll records a tiny shift on primary votes to Labor, but not another to alter their existing lead of 53-47 from a fortnight ago. Labor is up one point on the primary vote to 39%, after a three-point drop last time, while the Coalition is steady on 37%, retaining their two-point gain in the last poll. The Greens are steady on 9%, while One Nation is down a point to 5%, the lowest it’s been in a year. Scott Morrison’s personal ratings are improved, with approval up three to 43% and disapproval down two to 45%, and his lead as prime minister out from 43-36 to 44-35. Bill Shorten is down one on approval to 36% and up one on disapproval to 51%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1567.
Yes I too am pleased to learn no grandstanding from the Greens. Perhaps they were inspired to be more collaborative and mature by the behaviour of the other X-benchers. But in any case a good example of how MPs with different aspirations and policy objectives can work together to improve legislation and achieve good outcomes.
After listening to Katter today during question time ( and many other times ) parliament is always better when he doesn’t turn up.
Although I must admit I always get a chuckle when Bob throws one of his flammin’ questions towards the Hon – whoever if he remembers who he is meant to be asking.
YOu would think there were many issues that Labor could negotiate with KAtter on. The Nats have done Katter and FNQ no favours for not voting for them. The region will badly need major financial assistance from the next federal budget to rebuild after the floods. Katter is realistic enough to know that.
Henry:
[‘An occasional name change also helps mavis, yeah?’]
Don’t knock it till you try it.
BW:
Welcome back fella. Like you I felt a need to take a break, but today’s been a pleasure on PB.
Mavis Smith … I think the LNP did have plan, a dastardly plan, an epic plan, so smart, so elegant and brilliantly conceived that Morrison had the hubris to brush off a potential defeat on Medivac a week ago. Because the dastardly plan envisaged the Medivac bill would never get to a vote even if the crossbenchers and the ALP were able to stich up a compromise.
Because the A-G had quietly provided the LNP’s man in the Speaker’s chair with advice from the Solicitor-General that the bill was a money bill and therefore inadmissible. All the Speaker had to do was issue a ruling that the Bill was inadmissible and that would be the end of it. No need to release the SGs letter. Perhaps when the dust settles after a few days. But then the Opposition would be snookered with insufficient sitting days.
So when Tony Smith rose to his feet today with important information for the House, the front bench must have thought they had their perfect ‘gotcha’ moment. A perfect Kill two Bills moment with one deft, brilliant legal manouvre that no one saw coming. A masterclass in Parliamentary strategy and excution.
Except it didnt when the Speaker went off-script. And the house of cards collapsed.
I tips m’lid to Speaker Tony Smith and Tony Burke.
Blackadder
Confessions
You’ve taken me back to an earlier thought that some of the wiggle room in Labor’s original amendments was deliberate, to allow others to feel some ownership of and commitment to the final bill.
Fess
Regardless of what they admit in public, at some level the Greens must know that more than half their support are people to the left of Labor, wanting Labor to be more progressive. If they were seen to save a sinking conservative government by denying Labor a progressive success, surely they would be damaging themselves electorally.
Is Boerwar back? Some more good news, I’ve missed his contributions.
Mr Katter seems to have been reminded once already, just before he cut Senator Anning loose, that he needs Labor preferences to survive. Maybe another reminder might make him more inclined to support a longer sitting session for the House.
I posted this on Sunday last, but in light of today, an addition needs to be added:
While there has never been a successful vote of no confidence or censure of a Government in the House of Representatives, on eight occasions (now nine) Governments have either resigned or advised a dissolution following their defeat on other questions:
Deakin Ministry, 21 April 1904—The Government resigned following its defeat 29:38 in committee on an amendment moved by the Opposition to the Commonwealth Conciliation and Arbitration Bill.
Watson Ministry, 12 August 1904—The Government resigned following its defeat 34:36 on an amendment to its motion that the Commonwealth Conciliation and Arbitration Bill, which it inherited from the previous Government and carried through the committee (detail) stage, be recommitted for consideration of certain clauses and a schedule.
Reid Ministry, 30 June 1905—The Government resigned following the House agreeing 42:25 to an amendment to the Address in Reply (proposing to add the words ‘but are of the opinion that practical measures should be proceeded with’).
Deakin Ministry, 10 November 1908—The Government resigned following its defeat 13:49 on an amendment to the motion to alter the hour of next meeting.
Fisher Ministry, 27 May 1909—The Government resigned following defeat 30:39 on a motion moved by a private Member to adjourn debate on the Address in Reply.
Bruce–Page Ministry, 10 September 1929—The Governor-General accepted the Prime Minister’s advice to dissolve the House after an amendment had been agreed to in committee to the Maritime Industries Bill (35:34). The amendment was to the effect that proclamation of the Act would not be earlier than its submission to the people either at a referendum or a general election.
Scullin Ministry, 25 November 1931—The Governor-General accepted the Prime Minister’s advice to dissolve the House after the question ‘That the House do now adjourn’ was agreed to 37:32, against the wishes of the Government.
Fadden Ministry, 3 October 1941—The Government resigned when, during the Budget debate in committee of supply, an opposition amendment to the effect that the first item in the estimates be reduced by a nominal sum (£1) was agreed to.
“Morrison Ministry, 12 February 2019 – The Government lost a substantive vote of the floor of the House, the first time since 1929. The Morrison Government is considering its options – to wit, to permit a couple of boats to arrive on the mainland, for crass political purposes.”
Katter and prolonged attendances in the HoR are not bedfellows
Anti-vaxxers…sad doesn’t come close.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/feb/12/measles-outbreak-in-philippines-kills-70-with-vaccine-fear-mongering-blamed
Late Riser, Socrates:
The Senate is the next challenge for the asylum seekers. I can’t even predict how that’s going to go with the cat herding of all those X-benchers. And that’s if it even gets to be debated in the first place!
Rossmore @ 9.47 pm
On the big picture issue you may well be right, but I’d be very surprised indeed if the Speaker hadn’t given the AG and the PM any advance warning of the approach he intended to take. He clearly saw it as a matter of principle, and when that’s the case there’s no need to be unnecessarily devious; that just makes enemies. In any case, if the Speaker had ruled that the Bill couldn’t proceed on constitutional grounds, the opposition and crossbenchers would have had the numbers to carry a motion of dissent from that ruling.
The self-sacrifice and solemnity of the PM attending on the GG following defeat sounds like a relic
The boats have not stopped it is just we never hear anything. I guess this means we will get to hear about them.
.
.
Blame Shorten for boats: Morrison
Scott Morrison has declared every new people-smuggling boat arrival will be “on Bill Shorten’s head” after the medivac bill was pushed through.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/blame-bill-shorten-for-boats-says-scott-morrison/news-story/3e7d0eae1574fa4095c94ce7bad0f00c
Pedant
Yes Im inclined to agree, but oh to have been fly on the wall when Smith dropped the bombshell … presumably to LoH Pyne who no doubt was in on the plot with Porter, Dutton and Morrison…..
Rossmore
I reckon Speaker Smith can count as well as anyone and might have guessed that had he gone along with what Porter was suggesting with no explanation offered he would not be speaker tonight.
Burke would have moved dissent and I doubt the cross bench would have voted any differently to how they subsequently did to pass the bill.
Another triumph for Porter. Not.
poroti:
I think there was some discussion here before xmas as to whether ‘turn backs’ as a policy would be dropped leading up to the election if the govt felt it could get political mileage over boats ‘suddenly’ arriving again. Today’s event have brought that back to me.
Socrates
I think the flood disaster in NW Queensland makes it more likely Katter will again beat the LNP. NW Queenslanders always feel pretty neglected by the Nationals, and prefer Katter.
Interesting that at the last election he won Kennedy with a TCP of 61-39 over the LNP.
But the TPP (Which the AEC calculate for the federal total) was won by the LNP 57-43 over Labor. And when you realise those numbers are plugged into the federal total, it makes you realise that total TPP has some shortcomings!
Pedant @ #2071 Tuesday, February 12th, 2019 – 7:26 pm
A la Kristina Kenneally? Joan Kirner? Carmen Lawrence?
I can’t help thinking that the whole constitutional issue was designed not the stop the Bill from being voted on, but to peel away one or two wavering crossbenchers.
“The Senate is the next challenge for the asylum seekers. I can’t even predict how that’s going to go with the cat herding of all those X-benchers. And that’s if it even gets to be debated in the first place!”
There should be no problem with the Senate. The bill is substantively the same as the one passed by the Senate in December. I would be surprised if the 24/72 hours amendment or the no-pay-for-drs-on-panel amendment will offend the Senate cross bench.
Only prob might be that some Senator(s) goes to water about the simple fact that the government is being beaten over a substantive piece of legislation and the implications of this
Tim Storer
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2019/feb/12/morrison-shorten-coalition-labor-medical-evacuation-bill-kerryn-phelps-politics-live?page=with:block-5c627b23e4b04a6f567ddbb5#block-5c627b23e4b04a6f567ddbb5
“None of those involved in the discussions which led to the amendments carried by theHouse of Representatives got everything they wanted.
But, members of a number of parties, as well as independents, like myself, came together to achieve a result which should help sick people on Nauru and in PNG get the medical attention that we would expect for ourselves.”
Mavis Smith says:
Tuesday, February 12, 2019 at 8:30 pm
Vot a vanker Morrison is:
[“Votes will come and they will go, they do not trouble me,” he said.’]
…………………………………….
Morrison is channeling Henry Lawson’s Sweeney’s!
Though his argument had scarcely any bearing on the case:
`What’s the good o’ keepin’ sober? Fellers rise and fellers fall;
What I might have been and wasn’t doesn’t trouble me at all.
“……………………………….
A pretty telling sentiment for Scomo to be feeling.
Katter.
It was a few years ago now, probably 2010 or so, that I was catching a flight from Brisbane in the general departure area (not international). Katter was there too. I’d not yet returned to live in Australia and at the time I’d been away and not following Oz politics for 15 years, so I was focussed on my business. (Life.) But I was struck by this man, both literally and metaphorically, as he came up behind me and then elbowed his way through the crowd in front of me. I remember is face as he went past, his scowl and his large hands. He was on a mission. I was early for my flight and watched him cross my path several times over the next hour or so after I had found a spot to settle. He was meeting people. The airport departure area was where he did this. Always his head was down and his body pushing ahead, or his head was up and he was standing, scanning. He was very deliberate, and obvious. People got out of his way. His persona through the lens of the Australian media is not the same.
I think where the Libs miscalculated was when ALP & Indies made the review panel voluntary so would not be against the constitution.
Morrison, Pyne & Porter would have simply assumed that Labor was using the bill to cause a constitutional crisis to try and bring down the govt. And they would have thought “We’ll just tie it up in court” to fend that off.
I don’t think they thought for a moment that ALP & Indies would just work around that aspect. Doctors likely contacted Shorten and Phelps offering their service free of charge. Probably a lot of them.
Thus MOrrison & Co’s cunning plan fell pancake flat.
Rossmore:
The best of plans…
[‘I tips m’lid to Speaker Tony Smith and Tony Burke.’]
So do I, Smith bearing testimony that the office of Speaker is more important to him than FauxMo’s obvious imperative. It’s also apparent that Burke anticipated the chestnut agitated by Porter, who I think is now ratshit, his ambition to lead the Tories in tatters. For me, this is the best day since Gough’s election.
I don’t think there’ll be any boats turn up. It’s too close to the election now and so the Border Patrol boats may well mutiny against the orders of the government to let them through, they haven’t had a pay rise in 5 years remember.
Also, Mike Pezzulo was outed recently as a former ALP staffer. Having worked his way up to the top of the Commonwealth Public Service under the Coalition I’m thinking he wants to hang on if there’s going to be a rearrangement of the Heads of Department after a likely Labor victory, and so the order from Dutton and Morrison to open the AS floodgates might just get lost in his bottom drawer and not make it to the captains of the patrol vessels anyway.
I thought the next step was to try to push through bank reforms. Perfect wedge issue and it will keep reminding people of how the Libs stuck up for the bankers.
jenauthor
That’s an explanation I can accept, and like. My cynical angel has retreated. Thank you.
Paul Murray is doing is nut again on boarder security telling people how to vote. Morrison needs to go….
Windover:
[‘A pretty telling sentiment for Scomo to be feeling.’]
Yes. If I were him I’d get on the piss, his credibility receiving a severe, irreversible dent.
C@t
They do not have to let them through. If boats have still been trying to get here then all the Coalition need do is SCREAM about them being intercepted rather than keeping it quiet.
A question is Smith’s appetite to continue in the Parliament
Remember Peter Slipper?
My guess is Smith was saying “I am not contesting the upcoming election”
Given the events of today and the (resumed) trend of polling Smith may not be on his own in coming to such a decision
The Victorian Branch of the Liberal Party is not functionable – so somewhere a very long way down from dysfunctional
“ALP & Indies”
And Greens Adam Bandt and Centre Alliance Rebekha Sharkie
C@tmomma:
Good to see you back again, and an astute post.
Late Riser
I have never met Bob Katter, but he did send a nice reply when I wrote to him about something in NW Queensland years ago. I think it was just after he became an independent in 2001 (before the election – did you notice that Cory Bernardi?).
I think the people of NW Queensland have felt they have had better representation from him than they would have had from the LNP – which is why he has won six times in a row as an independent.
2016 Election – Katter 40%, LNP 32%, Labor 19%, Green 5%, FFirst 4% – TCP Katter 61 v LNP 39.
The other thing I find likely – what Shorten said in his speech probably drew the medical profession more to his side. He showed his priority was compassion and not fear. He could easily have taken the constitutional crisis route but chose not to.
Morrison showed during, and especially after, that his priority was not lives but fear.
poroti:
[‘…Morrison has declared every new people-smuggling boat arrival will be “on Bill Shorten’s head”]
How very predictable. I imagine that Labor would have its informants in the RAN and the ABF.
poroti @ #2183 Tuesday, February 12th, 2019 – 7:17 pm
Yes, but I can see a few being strategically let through in order to give credence to the screaming.
Worth reading just for this.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/12/un-big-mess-how-rest-of-europe-views-brexit
Summary: The Brits have gone nuts.
Pedant yes that makes sense. Itwould take just one cross bencher to blink.
Lets imagine Smith did shut down debate. The ALP express no confidence in the Speaker. He gets turfed … or not.
Amazing to think the LNP were prepared to even contemplate sacrificing their Speaker. But then again desparate times etc
So the Greens were initially opposed?
Confessions, today was a roller coaster. I’m still a little dazed at the turns it took. Right now I can almost hear the clattering keys trying to assemble a narrative for tomorrow’s consumption. But to answer you, yes, at first. But then it changed.
Lots of talk around about Bob Katter. Most of you havent met the man.
Ths great survivor reads the game in a seemingly convoluted manner but history suggests has an uncanny ability to come out on top.
Bob knows when to park his ute outside the best pub. He’ll do it again if it prolongs his tenure. So don’t be surprised if Labor becomes the recipient of some very FNQ Katter fortune.
Bob always places himself in the best position for Bob. Backing Morrison and co. isn’t in Bob’s best interests.
Late Riser:
I reckon Soc called it: the Greens didn’t want to be seen to be siding with the coalition while ceding progressive ground to Labor.
Davidwh predicted last night Shorten would wedge the govt big time, but Shorten has ended up managing to wedge the Greens as well it would seem.
Quite remarkable outcomes. I am hopeful Labor can secure extra sitting weeks.
Confessions, sorry. My response was inadequate, but the day’s events have the better of me. You could make a TV drama out of today. If you have the time and inclination I can recommend The Guardian Live Blog (the one Amy does) or PB, though PB jumps around some.
Thinking about today – if Morrison were a strong politician (rather than just a shouty ad-man), after losing that vote he would have gone straight to the Governor-General for an election, on March 16th or 23rd if necessary (I think then NSW has to defer to the feds and delay theirs by a fortnight).
Then all his bluster on TV would have had a bit of oomph.
As it is, he now just looks “Full of sound and fury. Signifying nothing”
… and of course the line before that in ‘Macbeth’ is “told by an idiot”
Need I say more!
All bark and no bite – his weak position as unelected PM with no majority in either house has just become even weaker in the public eye.
“I don’t think there’ll be any boats turn up. It’s too close to the election now”
I can see your point C@t….but are you assuming there is some limit to the depths of Liberal stupidity???
If you are i think you may need to have a thunk about how awesomely unjustified that assumption is.
🙂