Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

The second Newspoll for the year finds no continuation of the Coalition’s recent improving trend.

After a period of improving poll results for the Coalition, the latest Newspoll records a tiny shift on primary votes to Labor, but not another to alter their existing lead of 53-47 from a fortnight ago. Labor is up one point on the primary vote to 39%, after a three-point drop last time, while the Coalition is steady on 37%, retaining their two-point gain in the last poll. The Greens are steady on 9%, while One Nation is down a point to 5%, the lowest it’s been in a year. Scott Morrison’s personal ratings are improved, with approval up three to 43% and disapproval down two to 45%, and his lead as prime minister out from 43-36 to 44-35. Bill Shorten is down one on approval to 36% and up one on disapproval to 51%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1567.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,273 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Lizzie,

    Yeah, well it’ll be cold comfort if the Tory filth ride on the back of it to a narrow escape come May. We can all congratulate ourselves on how clever we were for another three to six years in opposition if it goes pear shape.

  2. Greensborough Growler says:

    Yeah, killing Granny for the inheritance would fly any time!
    _______________________
    Typical and despicable thing to say to the people who fight for dignity in death.

  3. “Things have been stuck in a rut for so long, with Boats and Fear winning, but we finally have some brave Independent women who have knocked off just enough conservatives to cut across the stagnation and reveal community wishes. Long may it continue.”

    This is a fair point Lizzie. The parliament is far better for its female representatives. Long may it continue indeed.

  4. The problem for the Government is that they have spent five years empowering bosses and five years gutting wages and conditions.
    On the news tonight, yet another in the huge conga lines of major companies which have suddenly discovered they have been underpaying their workers by millions of dollars over a period of years.
    The Morrison Government has been serially totally silent on this corrosive IR poison: wage theft.
    I do mean totally silent.
    Nothing is going to save them from that over the next 100 days.

  5. Scotty has mentioned May twice now, as when the election will be

    Can he win another Border Security election? keeps referring to 2001 and 2013 and that he’s looking for a repeat in 2019.

  6. “Quick question:

    Which Senate cross benchers are pro the medivac bill
    obviously the greens and labour get the numbers to 35

    who are the other 3+?”

    They need 4 to get to 39 and majority. I thought the numbers were Labor, Greens, CA & Storer and Hinch. Could be wrong about that.

    Ps. Bring back the biff!

    Pps. Welcome back Boerwar! What did you get up to big fella?

  7. ‘Cud Chewer says:
    Tuesday, February 12, 2019 at 7:15 pm

    Someone update me. Has this medivac bill gone back to the Senate?’

    It was sent back by the House today. I am not sure when the Senate will consider it.

  8. So The Australian has a short piece on the Ramsay Western Civilization degree at U of W.

    https://outline.com/fY5spy

    Students will be challenged to critically examine exemplary masterpieces of Western art and thought,

    Critically examining that sentence, I would ask how they are going to crtically examine things that the Vice-Chancellor has already designated as ‘exemplary masterpieces’.

    Still, I suppose when the Ramsay Centre have promised that they will have ‘spies’ checking on everything that happens in the course’s classes, the Vice-Chancellor is justifiably nervous about all that nice money coming in.

  9. BW

    Yep. The fear campaign only works if you have something to lose. Not when you have already lost. Compulsory voting means those people vote and don’t stay at home.

  10. A-E
    PB was no longer a pleasant place.
    At all.
    I lurked but it remained unpleasant.
    It is now being cleaned up.
    So, I am once again enjoying the posting.

  11. Gotta love Amy Remeikis …

    My eyes are a little crossed at this stage, but I am pretty sure that Christopher Pyne said earlier, when he was referencing the English civil war, that this move trashed like, 109 years of parliamentary tradition.

    But I think Scott Morrison said it was no big deal because the Coalition did the same thing to Labor in 2013?

    The answer, obviously, can only be vodka.

  12. rhw
    The Liberals have an internship program that could be applied.
    Other than that, I am sure that there would be a conga line of MDs prepared to do some pro bono work.

  13. I hope labor get a few spokespeeps/supporters to insinuate that a boat turning up now would be so convenient for the government you’d be forgiven for thinking it was deliberate. Get that embedded in people’s thoughts before the “BOATS, ARMADA” from the Coalition should one turn up.

  14. Rocket Rocket says:
    Tuesday, February 12, 2019 at 7:19 pm

    Critcally examining that sentence, I would ask how they are going to crtically examine things that the Vice-Chancellor has already designated as ‘exemplary masterpieces’.
    _______________________________________
    It does seem to be problematic that they seem to be setting up some kind of hagiography to certain artists and philosophers. It doesn’t mean the academics are on board for that, but there does seem to be a leaning in that direction.

  15. psyclaw

    The reason I pointed it out was because I wasn’t sure you were responding to my comment, so I wanted to check.

    Of course you are right, but I was providing information for another poster.

  16. BK,

    If “ instructions “ were passed down to ignore arriving boats it would be a huge gamble on it remaining secret.

    Defence, navy commanders, crew members on patrol boats etc etc.

    Would Morrison throw the dice ?

  17. simon holmes à court
    ‏@simonahac
    6m6 minutes ago

    delicious irony: *if* @PeterDutton_MP hadn’t orchestrated removal of @TurnbullMalcolm, @drkerrynphelps wouldn’t have taken #wentworth & there wouldn’t have been the numbers in the house to pass the historic medical evacuation amendments today.

    never thought i’d thank dutton!

  18. William
    I may have missed something you said on the subject, but are you going to do regular updates of bludgertrack?

  19. ScoMo reaches his crescendo.

    There are more than 60 medical professionals and medical-related staff on Nauru.

    More than 60, per head of population, in terms of those they are treating, you will find that to be greater than any part of this country. There are no children on Nauru other than the four that have their bags packed to go to the United States.

    Don’t kid yourself out there to the Labor Party and those who voted for this bill today and those who will do it in the Senate.

    Don’t kid yourself that somehow you have improved the situation, you’ve only made it weaker.

    What you’ve done today is say to the Australian people and Bill Shorten in particular and the Labor Party that you’re prepared to trade on these issues, trade on these issues to compensate for your very real weakness and the Australian people have looked at Bill Shorten today and and they’ve found him weak – and he is”

  20. “Would Morrison throw the dice ?”

    I think that he would have no compunction about doing it if he thought he could get away with it. Morrison plays dirty and right now he’d be in cornered rat mode.

  21. There are a number of skeletons in Craig Foster’s cupboard. He ‘retired’ in acrimonious circumstances from the national team and he is hated by some former teammates. One has alluded to an incident in a night club that occurred in the Pacific during a tour. it was after this that he left the national side. I very much doubt that Foster could run as a candidate due to this.

  22. @vanOnselenP
    13m13 minutes ago

    Perhaps the biggest pull factor for more boat arrivals is the government saying these amendments will lead to more boat arrivals

  23. I’d be interested to see some near future polling on Phelps chances at the fed election given she delivered on an election promise today.

  24. Gecko
    Bluey is spewing, ready to roll, rubbing all eight appendages in anticipation of the day when Australia finally comes to its global warming senses.

  25. The most recent two Newspolls being 53-47, I can’t see that getting any better for the Coalition in the next ten days – so a Newspoll ‘bounce’ to Labor after this would be the icing on the cake.

  26. Morrison quoted by Lizzie:

    “What you’ve done today is say to the Australian people and Bill Shorten in particular and the Labor Party that you’re prepared to trade on these issues, trade on these issues to compensate for your very real weakness and the Australian people have looked at Bill Shorten today and and they’ve found him weak – and he is”

    That’s a bit incoherent – who’s done what to Bill Shorten? – but I get the general drift.

    Substitute “Coalition” for “Labor”, Morrison, Abbott, Abbott’s successor whatisnane or Howard for Shorten and that might be a true statement.

    Maximum projection, accuse your opponent what you and your party have been doing for 18 years.

  27. Nah Rocket, they will deadset be buoyed by this and see themselves as a chance to get back into the game.

    They’ll over-egg it and shoot themselves in the foot, but make no mistake, they will be energized by it.

    I will be happier if they get into a shit fight over more sitting days re the banks.

  28. Rocket, Newspoll will move back to the govt for sure. PB is an echo chamber just like Sky News is. Don’t underestimate how much the average punter hates the thought of brown people coming here.

  29. Hinch the spoiler?

    On the Senate numbers:

    Labor is a yes

    Centre Alliance is a yes

    The Greens are a yes

    Tim Storer is a yes

    Last year, Derryn Hinch was a yes. Now, he’s a let me take a look at get back to you.

    All of the December 2018 Senate ayes would need to sign off on the amendments which have come from the House.

    Which means, they need Hinch.

  30. The libs will be lucky to survive the night.

    Their cunning plan to undermine this AS bill has been turned in to an existential reality.

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