Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

The second Newspoll for the year finds no continuation of the Coalition’s recent improving trend.

After a period of improving poll results for the Coalition, the latest Newspoll records a tiny shift on primary votes to Labor, but not another to alter their existing lead of 53-47 from a fortnight ago. Labor is up one point on the primary vote to 39%, after a three-point drop last time, while the Coalition is steady on 37%, retaining their two-point gain in the last poll. The Greens are steady on 9%, while One Nation is down a point to 5%, the lowest it’s been in a year. Scott Morrison’s personal ratings are improved, with approval up three to 43% and disapproval down two to 45%, and his lead as prime minister out from 43-36 to 44-35. Bill Shorten is down one on approval to 36% and up one on disapproval to 51%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1567.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,273 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Steve777 @ #1978 Tuesday, February 12th, 2019 – 7:28 pm

    “Would Morrison throw the dice ?”

    I think that he would have no compunction about doing it if he thought he could get away with it. Morrison plays dirty and right now he’d be in cornered rat mode.

    It takes just one honest journalist to ask Morrison “So do we expect a few boats to mysteriously slip through now that there is an election due…’, or words to that effect and then if Morrison did it, it would be disastrous to the COALition. But they are pretty inept and stupid…

  2. Lizzie “@vanOnselenP
    13m13 minutes ago

    Perhaps the biggest pull factor for more boat arrivals is the government saying these amendments will lead to more boat arrivals”

    Morrison is begging the people traffickers to send some boats.

  5. Lizzie

    I have seen on twitter that Hinch supports the Medivac Bill.

    I can’t reme if speculation or not.

    I think those that voted yes last time will do so again.

  7. These ‘medical staff’ Dutton and ScoMo are boasting about. From what I’ve read previously, they’re more the basic first aid than specialists.

  8. Eamonn Fitzpatrick on Twitter…

    An unelected prime minister controlling a federal govt when he can’t command a majority on the floor of our democratic parliament – that’s the biggest threat to our national security.

  9. Just a note for the record…

    I’ve made a couple of (what I thought were) considered posts in the last 24 hours on what could loosely be called the “cultural issues” here at Poll Bludger.

    In those posts I named no-one, except the parody entity called “Wayne”. The posts were completely general, and quite deliberately so.

    Anyone who “outed” themselves as a result of any of these posts (and at least one did, specifically) did so completely at their own discretion and judgement.

    Today it has been a pleasure to contribute to and follow Poll Bludger. The issues discussed have been contentious, passionately prosecuted and defended, and have been robustly debated without the usual rancour, partisanship and personal abuse that has (unfortunately) become part of PB life of late.

    Let this continue to be the case.

  12. Sales DOES give Dutton a going over on why Turnbull was destroyed as PM.
    Some good foot work by Sales.
    Dutton looking like an evasive goog.

  14. Morrison, probed by Leigh Sales on exactly who the murderers, rapists, terrorists and child molesters are among the benighted of Nauru and Manus, cannot answer.

    Enough said.

    He is obsessed with the entity known as “Bill Shorten”. Has mentioned it easily a dozen times.

    Refuses to rule out a challenge to Morrison after the election.

  18. BTW

    Kudos to all who voted for the medivac bill, even the Black Wiggle saw sense and compromised. This is a win for the poor buggers who need medical treatment, end of story.

  19. Burgey

    I thought it was Abbott that was going to destroy the Liberal in the LNP.

    In opposition I won’t be surprised if he turns it into the Nationalist party.

  20. Someone has clearly told the Coalition that the mere mention of “Bill Shorten” is a winner for them.

    In that “Rex Douglas” way I guess it is. Maybe Labor should be 58/42, as Rex says.

    But I’ll take 55/45, with “Bill Shorten” factored in, any day of the week.

  21. BB
    The Coalition, the Greens, PHON and all the other rag tag crowd of chancers had one thing in common over the past five years: the desire to Kill Bill.
    They failed.

  23. Let’s all remember, next time there’s frantic cries of “Labor’s getting wedged!” “They’re going to back down!” “This is a test for Shorten..” that this is how it always works out.

  24. Bushfire Bill @ #761 Tuesday, February 12th, 2019 – 6:51 pm

    Someone has clearly told the Coalition that the mere mention of “Bill Shirten” is a winner for them.

    In that “Rex Douglas” way I guess it is. Maybe Labor should be 58/42, as Rex says.

    But I’ll take 55/45, with “Bill Shorten” factored in, any day of the week.

    I think I fully agree. Shorten has come through this with flying colours and I think the Shorten fear factor is a lost cause. Yesterday I feared that if he weakened on the Medivac Bill the public will mark him down but via excellent negotiation he has won through.

  27. Outside left

    Yes – Dutton lost 40-45. Banks and Turnbull are gone, so it is now 40-43.

    Two nervous Liberals panic and we have a fourth PM in this six year term.

    If Morrison really has called a meeting tonight he could regret it!

    Though party rules mean they have to have a meeting by tomorrow anyway don’t they?

  28. Nice tweet, saying that if Dutton hadn’t moved on Turnbull, Phelps wouldn’t be in Parliament and Banks would still be on the government benches. So today is All Dutton’s Fault.

  29. Zoomster

    On the AA Bill. I think the damage is being done now.

    I hope the amendments restore the security of end to end encryption chains.

  34. The only thing which could make things worse for the LNP is some ham-fisted attempt to replace Scotty with a Potato.

    Could they be so stupid? Yes they could.

    One thing I learnt in many years in and around politicians with seats in Parliament, is that priority 1 is being Re-elected. Anything to advantage themselves, get food media coverage, feather local business or interest groups – all go back to Priority 1.

    Staring at 47/53 or 45/55 and being led by a buffoon out of his depth, is the talk of the Manuka nosheries tonight. Watch this space.

  35. Zoidlord

    Morrison is ‘snookered’ isn’t he? When people ask him why he’s not going straight to an election if this issue was of earth-shattering importance, he’ll spin it by saying he wants to get on with governing and not be distractd by Labor’s games, and that the elction will be in May.

    The problem with that line is that the next question will be well in that case why isn’t he extending Parliament’s sitting weeks to deal with the Banking Royal Commission.

  36. On the boats.

    People are looking at boat tracking sites. On twitter Quentin Dempster has asked how competent is Border Force at keeping boats out.

    People can see this LNP coming a mile off.

  37. The Daily Telecrap leads with an NRL story. Asylum bill story is Number 3 “PM slams Bill Shorten after historic defeat”.

    No link, no clicks.

  38. Just wondering which Coalition brains trust member(s) devised the “Constitution”strategy for today. Porter? Pyne? the interim PM?
    Whoever it was must be delighted with the result.

    Glad you are back, BW. Being a bit of an Eeyore, I feared something untoward might have happened.

  40. sprocket_

    It is every man (almost literally so in the Coalition) for himself now. Those on 5-10% margins who are now terrified of needing to find a new job will convince a few on 0-5% margins that they have nothing to lose in changing leaders again. Anything is posible – I can even conceive of a scenario where they put in Julie Bishop just to save their own seats (knowing she will still likely lose so they can still put in their candidate of choice as leader after the election).

  42. Turnbull would be laughing hysterically and into his 5th bottle of Grange right about now at what happened to the Coalition today……lol

  43. Bennelong

    Was on the way to an appointment this afternoon and heard Pyne’s deranged screaming and shouting about how this was trashing 109 years of Parliamentary tradition (a lie) and the boats were just out there waiting …
    Then Shorten moved his amendments and quick as a flash Pyne tried to steal his time with a query on procedure.
    It was Pyne at his worst and Shorten at his best. Calm, measured and confident.

  45. The Liberals could follow the LNP Queensland effort.They made Newman leader even though he was not in Legislative Assembly.

    Now who could I suggest?

  46. Rocket Rocket @ 8.06pm

    Why would Julie Bishop want to accept a poisoned chalice? Much more likely that she would tell them to “nick” off, that they had their chance to put her in the job when she might have been able to make something of it.

    Mr Morrison is part of a bigger problem, which is the tendency of parties to put people in leadership positions on the basis of ideological positioning or public perceptions, without apparently thinking about what skills might be needed if they actually become PM. Messrs Latham, Abbott, Morrison and (nearly) Dutton all exemplify this. Barnaby Joyce demonstrates it in spades.

  47. Will Border Force give the green light to a few boats?
    They wouldn’t would they?

    Such a risky strategy. Leaks/whistleblowers/post election loss inquiry would leave them on the scrap heap of history – or worse… a lot worse. And it would be hard to spin anyway. As Quaedvlieg so succinctly said in response to Morrisons desperate presser;

    That’s a cheap abrogation. The risk is on this govt’s head because you control the operational asset; if you’re serious about shifting the onus then give Shorten the operational levers or call an election, otherwise its yours Sunshine – you wanted the job; own it.

  48. Reichstato Dutton-Electricity prices way up-Incomes down- ISIS people swarming back- Bill is dangerous………………………..Boo Get Up they are targeting me. Alan Jones doing a sterling Baghdad Bob. It’s all over for Labor.

  50. I might say that I neither particular like nor dislike Mr Shorten, but I do think that he’s a better communicator than he’s sometimes given credit for, and that he has a diverse set of skills, especially in negotiating and in working through issues systematically, which will probably equip him to be a pretty competent PM.

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