Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

The second Newspoll for the year finds no continuation of the Coalition’s recent improving trend.

After a period of improving poll results for the Coalition, the latest Newspoll records a tiny shift on primary votes to Labor, but not another to alter their existing lead of 53-47 from a fortnight ago. Labor is up one point on the primary vote to 39%, after a three-point drop last time, while the Coalition is steady on 37%, retaining their two-point gain in the last poll. The Greens are steady on 9%, while One Nation is down a point to 5%, the lowest it’s been in a year. Scott Morrison’s personal ratings are improved, with approval up three to 43% and disapproval down two to 45%, and his lead as prime minister out from 43-36 to 44-35. Bill Shorten is down one on approval to 36% and up one on disapproval to 51%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1567.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,273 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. The money ball ammendment for labor was the third ammendment it proposed.

    i.e. The transfer to Australia under the legislation was to apply only to those already on Nauru and Manus. It would not cover any future arrivals. Government scare campaign gone.

    The other two ammendments were thrown on the table for the cross bench to snap and snarl over and claim a win when labor agreed to changes.

    Labor got what it wanted and the cross bench walked away heads held high after their “ successful negotiation.”

    Win win for everyone.

  2. Two other people deserve special commendations today.
    The first is Speaker Smith.
    His decision to smash the Government code of Omerta by reading the letter of advice was masterly.
    His decision to leave it to the Parliament to decide what it thought was Consitutional was fundamentally democratic.
    His decisions and his gravitas were entirely appropriate for what is a high point in Australia’s democratic history.
    The second is Burke.
    His mastery of parliamentary tactics totally outsmarted Pyne.

  3. Pegasus @ #1870 Tuesday, February 12th, 2019 – 6:42 pm

    The Guardian

    There’s been some commentary that this is the first time a government has lost a legislative vote in the House since 1929. This is not the case – the Fadden government lost a vote on a Budget amendment in 1941

    Which is why the commentary has been around a “substantive” legislative vote. Which was the Stanley Bruce government in 1929.

    So, to be clear – the Fadden government lost a budget amendment, which was seen as a de facto no confidence motion (lost control of finances) in 1941 and the Bruce government lost a vote to give it more power over industrial disputes, a substantive piece of legislation in 1929.

    Both went to an election.

    Again, Scott Morrison has said he will not do that.

    Yes, but the Fadden vote was a nominal amendment – involving the nominal amount of 1 Pound – although it was the budget. It was a vote of no confidence in sheep’s clothing, if that makes sense. There was obviously the unspoken threat of step down or else…’

  4. ‘lizzie says:
    Tuesday, February 12, 2019 at 6:47 pm

    Boerwar

    Fiona Simson still seems to be insisting it’s the drought.’

    She IS NFF! But, IMO, she is quite practical…

    Actually, I am very pleased with her. Compared to the Nats, she is well ahead of the curve on Global Warming.

    The realization is starting to seep through that Global Warming is smashing all the old rules.

  5. William Bowe @ #1895 Tuesday, February 12th, 2019 – 6:51 pm

    There’s an element of truth in that, GG, but my “getting religion” doesn’t happen at random. The blog has become insufferable lately because I’ve been too laissez-faire for too long, for reasons you correctly identify. As a result, the partisan bully brigade’s sense of proprietorship over the place has gotten so out of hand that it’s become impossible for me to ignore. It’s very clear to me that my interventionism over the past two days has had positive results, and hopefully I’ll soon be able to fade into the background again.

    PB’s like a garden. Needs to be weeded, watered and nurtured. The native momma plantis a bit wayward but should be watered and encouraged.

    I reckon you could get rid of the same/same weed which only encourages the yellow bellied nath warbler which is a known pest.

    #gardening onPB

  6. Dangle dangle dangle 😆 From Amy

    “Asked if Labor will rule out a vote of no confidence, given the loss of the vote, Tony Burke says “no opposition would ever rule that out”

  7. ‘mikehilliard says:
    Tuesday, February 12, 2019 at 6:47 pm

    bw

    I do like the Drum.

    Yep, I thought they’d stuff it when they announced a new format but they didn’t. Actually, aside from the set I don’t get what the new format is.’

    The net result seems to be deeper and more thoughtful examination of the issues.
    I thought the discussion this afternoon on the MDB was good.

  8. Windhover @6:20PM. “How about giving credit to the Greens for compromising, apparently the myth being the Greens never do is debunked once again”

    Fair enough. The Greens are learning that politics is the art of the possible.

  9. Greensborough Growler says:
    Tuesday, February 12, 2019 at 7:00 pm

    PB’s like a garden. Needs to be weeded, watered and nurtured. The native momma plantis a bit wayward but should be watered and encouraged.

    I reckon you could get rid of the same/same weed which only encourages the yellow bellied nath warbler which is a known pest.
    ________________
    Or alternatively, without Bossmamma, her bully gang might fade away without apron strings to grab onto.

  10. Bill Shorten

    @billshortenmp
    The legislation Labor passed in the House of Representatives today ensures that people in Australia’s care, can get urgent medical treatment when they need it.

    49
    3:00 PM – Feb 12, 201

  11. If Labor pushes a motion of no confidence it will be a bad look, trying to push the government around a bit too much. They can leave the ball in Morrison’s court and force him to consider backing down on plans (for reasons Windhover and Pedant mention),
    The budget is set for April 2nd, if the election is called the day after it would take place on 11th May.
    So i don’t see any good options for an earlier election for the LNP now, 23rd March is earliest it could be, a week before NSW which i don’t see happening because of overlap.
    Easter is three weeks after NSW election, so earliest it could be would be late April, which would then make it look to some like they are deliberately trying to avoid the budget (because they would be in caretaker mode).

  12. Dovey

    Someone who worked in NT Health sent me this ages ago – it also highlights the relationship between heavy rainfall wet seasons in Darwin and number of cases. Even some in Central Australia one year that was very wet. One thing we learnt living in Alice Springs was that the biggest rainfalls were usually in January when the monsoon trough occasionally spread that far south.

    http://www.melioidosis.info/download/melioidosis_the_2014_revised_rdh_guideline.pdf

  13. Did the Guardian say there was an election in 1941?

    From school history my recollection is no election but 2 independents crossed the floor and Curtin became PM.
    Wikipeadia
    According to political historian Brian Carroll, Fadden “did no better than Menzies in getting the country organized for the war. He ruled for only 40 days and came to grief largely because he did not like Arthur Coles and made no effort to win his support”. Coles persuaded the other independent, Alex Wilson, to support him in crossing the floor and then advised Opposition Leader Curtin of their intention. On 3 October, Curtin moved that the Government reduce the budget by 1 pound. The independents, Coles and Wilson, voted with the Opposition in the House of Representatives to reject Fadden’s budget and therefore the Fadden Government. Fadden resigned. To date, this is the last occasion on which a government was defeated as a result of losing the confidence of the House of Representatives. Curtin was sworn in as Prime Minister on 7 October 1941. Eight weeks later, Japan attacked Pearl Harbor.

  14. Hmm, previous post lost in the ether.
    Has anyone else noticed the delicious irony of the rightly feted return of Hakeem that Morrison tried to claim as his mighty effort and the passage of the medivac bill in the HoR today?

  15. Greg Jennet openly speculating on ABC TV News that “a boat might just happen to arrive in the next few weeks”.

    The fix is in.

  16. Shorten is also currently showing his strength and confidence as a leader by standing back and letting Albanese and Burke front the media.

    Particularly for Albanese as a leader of the left and his passion on the issue of AS policy this is a huge acknowledgement.

    Cheers.

  17. If Morrison believes that legislation passed today destroys Australia’s security he has to go to an election to test the people’s support for his position.

  18. Nath @ 6:09
    “Well it was enjoyable today until a gargantuan and highly successful attention seeking maneuver that promises to go for a week at least”
    pls con’t judge others by yourself, Nath!
    Meanwhile , enjoy “the twilight of the Dogs”.

  19. Greg Jennet just suggested that if there were another boat turn up on our shores (nudge nudge wink wink) the Morrisson could very well call an early election

  20. Rocket Rocket @ #669 Tuesday, February 12th, 2019 – 6:06 pm

    Dovey

    Someone who worked in NT Health sent me this ages ago – it also highlights the relationship between heavy rainfall wet seasons in Darwin and number of cases. Even some in Central Australia one year that was very wet. One thing we learnt living in Alice Springs was that the biggest rainfalls were usually in January when the monsoon trough occasionally spread that far south.

    http://www.melioidosis.info/download/melioidosis_the_2014_revised_rdh_guideline.pdf

    I read up a little on melioidosis during the Thai cave boys rescue, since I think it was noted as a real fear and was one of the reasons the boys were quarantines for so long.

  21. They’ll let a few boats through now for sure. The boats never stopped, they were just turned around. The Libs will milk this for all its worth.

    Hopefully the govt will now lose a vote on sitting days too.

  22. Some of us remember the motions to end the NT euthanasia bills were moved by Kevin (Catholic) Andrews , seconded by Tony (Cathoic) Burke,. We will never forget of forgive,.

  23. ‘Harry “Snapper” Organs says:
    Tuesday, February 12, 2019 at 7:07 pm

    Hmm, previous post lost in the ether.
    Has anyone else noticed the delicious irony of the rightly feted return of Hakeem that Morrison tried to claim as his mighty effort and the passage of the medivac bill in the HoR today?’

    Heh heh.
    Little old moi, for one.

  24. Fact checker to aisle number 4 please

    Scrott Morrison.
    ” The Labor Party have already said that if they are elected that they will return to the policy of providing permanent visas, permanent visas that lead to citizenship for people who arrive or enter Australia illegally. “

  25. Things have been stuck in a rut for so long, with Boats and Fear winning, but we finally have some brave Independent women who have knocked off just enough conservatives to cut across the stagnation and reveal community wishes. Long may it continue.

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