Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

The second Newspoll for the year finds no continuation of the Coalition’s recent improving trend.

After a period of improving poll results for the Coalition, the latest Newspoll records a tiny shift on primary votes to Labor, but not another to alter their existing lead of 53-47 from a fortnight ago. Labor is up one point on the primary vote to 39%, after a three-point drop last time, while the Coalition is steady on 37%, retaining their two-point gain in the last poll. The Greens are steady on 9%, while One Nation is down a point to 5%, the lowest it’s been in a year. Scott Morrison’s personal ratings are improved, with approval up three to 43% and disapproval down two to 45%, and his lead as prime minister out from 43-36 to 44-35. Bill Shorten is down one on approval to 36% and up one on disapproval to 51%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1567.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,273 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  2. Confessions

    If you are against the elite you are for taxing the rich. That’s the flaw in the turnout doesn’t work argument.

    US polls show a majority of Republican voters are in favour of taxing the rich.

    This is the problem of punditry of the elite. They ignore what polling results are telling them.

  3. So, SKY show pix that the person who asked the question about franking credits is a Young Lib plant – they showed pix of him at previous events with Henderson and another with Turnbull.

    Jayes said the obvious plant blows up in Coalitions face

  4. On pancreatic cancer. A former colleague was feeling a bit crook one day, blamed it on the long lunch the day before.
    A week later he was In hospital for tests,mthen some exploratory surgery.
    He never left hospital and we attended his funeral four weeks to the day from the long lunch.
    That was back in the 9os. Things may have improved.

  5. they showed pix of him at previous events with Henderson and another with Turnbull.

    I got the strong sense watching last night that Henderson knew the guy.

  6. sprocket_

    Post them. Those of outside the fetid swamp of Sydney need to see just how repulsive Mordor Media is . That one is a wow ! how many decades was the clock turned back ?

    The DT and Warren partying like its 1899

  7. This is the problem of punditry of the elite. They ignore what polling results are telling them.

    Well if you’d read the article you’d have seen that it opens by citing polling.

  8. Morrison: “Operation Sovereign Borders has worked. It’s delivered a human dividend that is both compassionate and fair.”

    I have no words to describe this delusion.

  9. AFL is ‘Australian rules football’. Seeing we are in Australia then AFL is football. I remember in the 1980s quite a few school fights in inner Melbourne over the use of the word football.

  12. poroti @ #1044 Tuesday, February 12th, 2019 – 8:36 am

    As Xi Jinping said on hearing the news 😆 😆 😆 :lol; 😆 😆 😆
    .
    “UK to send aircraft carrier to Pacific in show of strength to China”
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/uk-sends-aircraft-carrier-to-pacific-in-show-of-strength-to-china-mr93f5dd9

    Poroti

    That Williamson comment was utterly bizzare.

    It seems as if the UK Tories think it is 1912 again and Britannia rules the waves.

    I mean I am all for a touch of national pride but this is a little like me offering to take on Mohamed Ali in his hey day.

    He is talking about bases in Asia again. Does he plan to retake Singapore or Hong Kong? Are there any British territories still in Asia. i think Diego del Garcia is officially British in the Indian Ocean, but is there anything else?

  13. In NSW, ACT and Qld, ‘Football’ is Rugby League. In the rest of Australia it’s Australian Rules.

    And the game where they run around for 90 minutes for a score of 0-0 Soccer.

  14. And Arty, why don’t you say a few words, mate.

    Arthur Sinodinos (who is back from sick leave, which he took while undergoing cancer treatment)

    Thanks, prime minister. All I’m going to say is, first and foremost, when I’ve been out there talking to our people as I’ve come back to work, there is a real fighting spirit out there, a view that we can win this, and, as long as we provide a clear alternative, articulate that alternative and work as a team, we’ll get there, we can win this. The only other plea I would make is, Michael McCormack, no more singing, stick to your day job!

    Is McCormack’s silence all that is needed for them to win? 😀

  15. Thanks BK for the Dawn Patrol. Muchas gracias, señor ❗

    I found most items interesting and in particular the following:-

    More than half of all aged-care providers have missed a deadline by the royal commission to provide a list of all incidents of abuse and neglect going back five years despite clear warnings they will face “careful scrutiny” if they fail to comply.
    https://www.outline.com/sLuDqt

    Which when combined with this

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-11/family-pain-shared-on-day-one-of-the-aged-care-royal-commission/10789444

    Is quite interesting indeed.
    Pause to take daily medication. 💊 ☕

    Tough questions for those responsible –

    This question of regulation is where the parallels between the recent royal commission into the financial services industry and this one into the aged care sector will be extremely evident.

    The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) and Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) came under fire for leaving misconduct unpunished or imposing penalties that “did not meet the seriousness of what had been done”.

    How will the equivalent bodies responsible for the safety of the elderly in nursing homes fare?

    You would expect those bodies — the Aged Care Quality Agency and the Aged Care Complaints Commissioner — would be subject to some tough questions from the royal commission.
    However, both bodies were disbanded by the Federal Government on December 31, last year.
    They were replaced with yet another configuration, the new Aged Care Quality and Safety Commission.

    It is not clear whether a representative from those former bodies will be compelled to speak.

    I had a lot to do with these former bodies – and – if one wanted ones loved one to have poached eggs (which present difficulties in safe preparation) – then perhaps a favourable result may obtain. I did have a lot of practice in cohesive and coherent letter writing. My one word description for these organisations is “useless”.

    Complaints of subtle and continual abuse (the pinching, pushing leaning, bumping, – up to placement of pillow so that resident may fall out of bed) – we-e-e -ll – accidents do happen and there is no proof – and on t0 the assaults, murder and fires and theft and medication misplacement (he he) ——

    I don’t have any magic solutions. My mythical Empathy and Kindness Generator does not exist (all buyers will be refunded in due course) and we must rely on the kindness of strangers – some of whom are wonderful and some are stranger (as is the Universe) than we can know.

    I await with keen interest to know what a day of suitable care for various classes of aged resident would be. How this could be more or less formalised without having staff/resident ratios set and without loved ones having a voice in which staff care for ones resident is probably a necessary question.

    I fear I am rambling again. Too bad – so sad.

    Toodles. ☮ ✌🕊

  19. Malcolm Farr
    ‏@farrm51

    Dear Chinese intelligence agencies,
    If you hacked the Parliament House computer network, could you find out whether the interminable and disruptive building alterations will end soon?
    With thanks.

  20. Back in the day the governing bodies for Australian football in WA and SA were the SANFL and the WANFL.
    The N stood for National, part of I think the thinking of the people in charge in those days that their code would become the National game.

  21. nath says:
    Tuesday, February 12, 2019 at 9:47 am
    AFL is ‘Australian rules football’. Seeing we are in Australia then AFL is football. I remember in the 1980s quite a few school fights in inner Melbourne over the use of the word football.
    ———————————————-
    Football is a generic term that covers a number of games involving kicking a ball. The specific game it is used to refer to depends on where you live. For any one code to attempt to claim it is pointless. The round ball game popular in Europe was known as soccer when it was first codified. Interestingly AFL was codified some years before soccer was.

  22. On Wednesday the high court will hear a request to challenge Al Kateb v Godwin, a controversial 2004 ruling about a stateless man who no country would take after Australia rejected his asylum claim, and which effectively enabled indefinite detention in Australia.

    The case is brought on behalf of Said Imasi, another stateless man who has been locked up for nine years with almost no prospect of deportation or release, his lawyers claim.

    The minister for home affairs and the immigration department will fight Imasi’s case, and in published submissions have forcefully rejected the plaintiff’s arguments and warned of drastic consequences to the current system which allows the indefinite detention of stateless people, asylum seekers and other non-citizens.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/feb/12/stateless-man-said-imasi-takes-indefinite-detention-case-to-high-court?CMP=share_btn_tw

  24. rhwombat
    Tuesday, February 12th, 2019 – 9:20 am
    Comment #274

    Forget about the football.

    What happening with First Dog ❓

    There seems to be some cross pollination regarding the GRASPers.
    Can we now expect a court case to decide the rights to GRASP©

    Just who is the copyright holder ❓ 🦚 why not ❓

  25. When I think of $50 billion sinking without trace on submarines that most likely will have zero effect in any future battle (because there won’t be one) I feel like tearing my hair out.

    If we ever get those subs, maybe we could launch some cruise missiles in tag-along war we get involved in to please the Yanks. They won’t do any good, other than for PR, and we’ll have to pay for them anyway (like we had to pay for our own bombs in Syria).

    Nukes are out. As soon as we go nuclear, then all our cities are legitimate targets (I know, they are already, but no so legitimately).

    Apart from those fantasy scenarios, what else are we going to use a fleet of subs for?

    Our manned subs need an artificial human habitat. A very high proportion of their operational systems will be used for only this.

    These subs will be sunk by drone submersibles, either air-dropped or put in place months or even years before to patrol the waters outside our naval bases. These drones will cost at most a hundreth, more likely a thousandth of the cost of a manned submarine. There will be hundreds, perhaps thousands of them available to be deployed as a result. Our manned, diesel subs (which have to surface regularly) won’t have a hope.

    No lectures, please, on how RF telemetry can’t penetrate below the surface to activate drones. It can: enough to transmit simple “Kill” orders. In any case, manned subs have the same limitation.

    I have a Chinese drone that cost me $1,300. It has 4 Ultra High Definition video, an electronic compass, sophisticated GPS, motion sensing cameras, obstacle avoidance, the ability to carry out a pre-programmed route, a range of 6 kilometres and many, many more advanced features. This is Chinese retail technology. It’s the technology the Chinese permit to be sold to the West. Imagine what their really secret technology can do!

    We had a manufacturing industry that employed tens of thousands of skilled workers, all over the country. It was the motor vehicle industry. For the submarine contract, the Coalition is boasting about a mere 2,800 jobs, and then only in South Australia (and you can bet that’s scraping together every single gig they could find that’s remotely connected to the contract and labelling it a “job”). It’s a pittance, employment-wize.

    We got rid of a perfectly good, advanced manufacturing industry that was costing the nation a song compared to $50 billion, and which employed many more workers, and have replaced it with a pretend industry that will probably never produce any product beyond advanced prototype stage. We got rid of the motor vehicle industry in a “Mine’s bigger than yours” bullshit exercise brought on by tough guy Joe Hockey, while Abbott cowered overseas under cover, at Mandela’s funeral.

    Now we have to start up a whole new industry, for which there really is no need other than to sate the testosterone surges of our chocolate soldiers so they can kid themselves we’re a world player.

    It’s idiotic. It’ll be out of date before the ink is dry on the drawings. We are – once again – fighting the next war with the technology, tactics and mindset of the last, maybe for as puerile a reason as propping up Chris Pyne’s seat.

    We saw Morrison yesterday trot out the old shibboleth that goes: “Labor spent the least on defence of any government since 1938 (and we know what happened just a year later, eh?)”

    Maybe so, and look what happened: we weren’t ready for the war that came on straight after… oh, wait. There wasn’t a war. Not a real war.

    There was only that one where our brave pilots dropped bombs from 25,000 feet onto mud-brick huts in Syria (and were back in the hanger in time for lunch). And the other one where our intrepid Diggers “trained” a few Afghani soldiers (who then ran away and gave their guns to the Taliban). Those were not “war” wars. They were target practice and parade ground duty. And we had those F18s used in Syria anyway. Didn’t need to buy new ones. I’d say “Smart procurement, Labor,” not “Shame, shame”.

    When you’re interrupting marriage ceremonies with 1,000 pound bombs you don’t need the latest technology. A Sopwith Camel could have done the job. Or a drone, using practically the same technology that my own drone has in it right now (in fact ISIS did just this, with the drones I’m talking about).

    If we want to go under the water to fight we should be developing a true deterrent system based on drone submersibles and aerial equipment. We could probably do it for $10 billion (OK, say $20 billion, the way our generals and Defence wallahs waste money) and get a better result, one that might scare at least someone that matters.

  26. “In NSW Football is all codes now. You just say AFL Soccer or Rugby if people don’t know which code you are talking about”

    Australia is unusual in that four codes of football have sizeable followings: Rugby League in the ‘North East’, Aussie Rules in the remainder, but with Soccer and Rugby Union having significant support / adherents throughout. Further, Aussie Rules has a large following in League States and vice versa.

    So the push for Soccer to call itself ‘football’ deserves to fail.

  27. The jokes write themselves. No wonder comedians and cartoonists have such fun with him.

    President Donald Trump reportedly plans to sign an executive order today creating something called the American AI Initiative. The executive order is apparently a symbolic nod to artificial intelligence that doesn’t create any new funding but encourages the federal government to do more with AI. And we can’t help but wonder, what are the odds that President Trump knows anything about what he’s signing today?

    https://gizmodo.com/tech-genius-donald-trump-to-sign-executive-order-on-art-1832522701?IR=T

  28. It’s all very sobering. Carper diem and all that.

    I spent Saturday night and early Sunday morning in A&E with a friend who in the midst of a galah night at the SOH asked me about her stomach swelling and pain. She is a woman of some significance in the legal fraternity. But there we were on plastic chairs in triage, with my presumptive diagnosis of a bowel obstruction, wondering how it aligned with her already diagnosed lung cancer, surrounded by the mayhem and cardiac arrest on the footpath outside, thinking all the thoughts you think.

    End of life matters matter.

  29. lizzie @ #986 Tuesday, February 12th, 2019 – 6:51 am

    Mmmm. ScoMo and Pyne shouting that they’re “keeping us safe” doesn’t fill me with confidence. Security seems to rely more on the lowest cog in the machine. I’m thinking of the “country policeman” who started the investigation that led to a “huge drug haul”. And even then, I wonder if the story is genuine.

    Yes. I totally agree. As a society we keep each other safe. Everyone has eyes and ears and actions. What I think works best is unified purpose and many many nested and simple layers of responsibility working together.

  31. Wong has already made a mark in political history as the first Asian-born cabinet minister (she moved to the Adelaide Hills aged eight with her South Australian mother) but if Labor wins the May election, as polls indicate, the senator will become the face of Australian diplomacy – something she is acutely aware of as economic and strategic power shifts to Asia.

    https://www.afr.com/news/politics/why-penny-wong-believes-australia-should-look-beyond-being-a-middle-power-20190210-h1b2gf

  32. We got rid of a perfectly good, advanced manufacturing industry that was costing the nation a pittance compared to $50 billion, and which employed many more workers, and have replaced it with a pretend industry that will probably never produce any product beyond advanced prototype stage. We got rid of the motor vehicle industry in a “Mine’s bigger than yours” bullshit exercise brought on by tough guy Joe Hockey, while Abbott cowered overseas under cover, at Mandela’s funeral.

    Now we have to start up a whole new industry, for which there really is no need other than to sate the testosterone surges of our chocolate soldiers so they can kid themselves we’re a world player.

    It’s idiotic. It’ll be out of date before the ink is dry on the drawings. We are – once again – fighting the next war with the technology, tactics and mindset of the last, maybe for as puerile a reason as propping up Chris Pyne’s seat.

    Thank you, Bushfire. 😉

  33. Doesnm’t Q&A vet the participants, especially those selected to ask questions.
    If so any plant from any party should show up and be excluded; otherwise it risks becoming ‘the night of the plants’.

  34. BB

    I agree with you regarding drones. As you highlight the technology of drones available today.

    Look at the ten years of pace on the IPhone technology from its introduction. By the time those submarines are built the shorter build times for drones will have seen them improve capability.

    Edit: not a surprise about a government still buying copper for the internet

  36. @ Dan G
    I will ignore your comments about Rugby.
    Its simple.
    Soccer is Soccer.
    AFL is footy.
    Rugby League is League
    Rugby Union is Rugby.
    In Australia,that is the way it is.

  37. booleanbach @ #1081 Tuesday, February 12th, 2019 – 7:10 am

    Doesnm’t Q&A vet the participants, especially those selected to ask questions.
    If so any plant from any party should show up and be excluded; otherwise it risks becoming ‘the night of the plants’.

    They deliberately try to have the audience reflect the polls on voting intention so I suppose it’s inevitable there will be the odd plant here and there.

  43. Victoria

    On the Gangland wars in Melbourne.

    Very Chicago Prohibition days. We see more and more criminal gangs form as a result. This is why criminalising a medical problem is the wrong way to go.

  46. At least some fun at the Liberals expense:

    Michelle Grattan
    ‏Verified account @michellegrattan
    5m5 minutes ago

    Michelle Grattan Retweeted Malcolm Farr

    And if the Chinese can’t get to the bottom of the matter, could the senators do so at estimates please? They could have rebuilt the whole place in the time (only slight exaggeration). who is overseeing this?

    Michelle Grattan added,
    Malcolm Farr
    Verified account @farrm51
    Dear Chinese intelligence agencies,
    If you hacked the Parliament House computer network, could you find out whether the interminable and disruptive building alterations will end soon?…
    1 reply 3 retweets 8 likes

  47. Alex Greenwich, independent Sydney, is co-hosting a forum on pill testing on Thursday 21st Feb 18:00 – 20:00

    It’s time for an honest conversation about drug use.

    Pill testing is an obvious first step if we’re going to save lives. But what comes next?

    The war on drugs has been an abject failure, and it’s costing people their lives.

    Join David Marr in conversation with Cate Faehrmann, Greens MLC, Alex Greenwich, Independent MP for Sydney, and leading experts Fiona Measham from The Loop UK, Mary Harrod from NUAA, and Dr Alex Wodak.

    https://www.facebook.com/events/531698270658302/
    https://www.alexgreenwich.com/pill_testing_forum

    (Wish I could go, but will be interstate)

  48. Kristina Keneally
    ‏Verified account @KKeneally
    57s57 seconds ago

    .@TimWilsonMP retweets congratulations to himself from Liberal Democrat, and big business tax cut campaigner, Sam Kennard.
    The Liberals & Nationals and their mates in the top end of town.
    Labor will close tax loopholes for the wealthy and deliver a fair go for everyone.

  49. Which of the major codes of football can you only make a maximum single score with your foot.

    That’d be AFLX ™, when a Gatorade ™ Game Changer ™ kicks a Super Goal ™ = 20 points

    Personally, I’m working hard to have Rugby Union re-branded as “Liberalball” in my neck of the woods, with some success.

    And I find it consistently amusing that those most pious about Football being the only true football because feet blah blah barrack for the national team called the Socceroos.

  50. a r

    I don’t know if you’re still maintaining your PB Comments plugin (I use it for it’s auto update and reverse sorting features) but it occasionally misses a post. It is very rare and I think has to do with a timing issue. Just now I posted something at 9:06 local time (10:06 PB time, I think) as did sonar. I remained unaware of sonar’s post until nath replied to it. Puzzled that I had missed the original I searched and only found it after “getting out and back in”.

    Not a big deal. Thanks again for your work. 🙂

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