Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

The second Newspoll for the year finds no continuation of the Coalition’s recent improving trend.

After a period of improving poll results for the Coalition, the latest Newspoll records a tiny shift on primary votes to Labor, but not another to alter their existing lead of 53-47 from a fortnight ago. Labor is up one point on the primary vote to 39%, after a three-point drop last time, while the Coalition is steady on 37%, retaining their two-point gain in the last poll. The Greens are steady on 9%, while One Nation is down a point to 5%, the lowest it’s been in a year. Scott Morrison’s personal ratings are improved, with approval up three to 43% and disapproval down two to 45%, and his lead as prime minister out from 43-36 to 44-35. Bill Shorten is down one on approval to 36% and up one on disapproval to 51%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1567.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,273 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

  1. ItzaDream @ #993 Tuesday, February 12th, 2019 – 7:06 am

    re Pancreatic Cancer

    Google is your friend – Cancer Council of Australia, Pancreatic Cancer

    Worth noting is the 5 year survival of 8.7%. That’s a shockingly bad number. As Wombat and others have said, it is the location where the cancer can ‘silently’ grown before it causes symptoms that is a big factor is the ‘late’ diagnosis. The other great killer from ‘delayed’ diagnosis is ovarian cancer – growing away there in the pelvis and by the time it gets big enough to cause discomfort or pain, it’s too big.

    I’ve anaesthetised (with the go-to surgeon in a major teaching hospital) a lot of patients with pancreatic cancer deemed suitable for a Whipples Procedure which involves the removal of the ‘head’ of the pancreas (where the majority of cancers occur) which is tucked into the c shaped curved outlet from the stomach, the duodenum. It is very major surgery, with the complex removal and reattachments of lots of pipes, including the biliary system. And then you die.

    (btw, DTT, blood vessels aren’t, or shouldn’t be in the right hands, the major problem)

    Itza

    My story was from 26 years ago and i guess surgery has moved on a helluva long way since then. Which is great.

  2. zoomster says:
    Tuesday, February 12, 2019 at 7:45 am
    How is soccer calling itself ‘football’ screwing with the English language when soccer was the first game called ‘football’? And indeed, the game where actually the only part of you meant to deal with the ball is your foot.

    Good point Zoomster. I would say that of the three major codes in this country, soccer is by far the most entitled to the call itself football, followed by the AFL, with rugby a distant third.


  3. zoomster says:
    Tuesday, February 12, 2019 at 8:02 am

    Desert Qlder

    Just checked my 1889 edition of Chamber Encyclopedia (love those books) – no listing of anything under ‘soccer’, but there is a game described as ‘football’ — only one.

    And which set of rules did they describe.

    The rules as set down by the association. ( abbreviated to soccer) did not really spread through England until the late 1870’s, and were not exported until after your Chamber entry.

    Rugby, another version of football started in 1845 when Blackheath Club’s left the association.

    Before that there was many version of football dating back 1000’s of years, completely unrelated to the associations attempt to codify.

    Australian rules another version of football has it’s own history and does grid iron.

    As I said, are we talking about the association attempt to screw with the English language.

  4. Dreyfus could’ve turned that smartarse question about 9,000 voters in Henderson’s seat

    I often wonder how Qanda choose the questions to be asked. That question was such an obvious dixer that I’m surprised Dreyfus didn’t laugh aloud. The 20-something sat next to him shaking his head in faux outrage, as if he’s anticipating his own franking credit wealthfare in 40+ years. And at times I felt Henderson actually knew the guy.

  5. Good Morning

    Today we see how badly the business model of the media stops rational policy debate.

    From all the media talk you would think the Medical Bill was hanging by a thread.

    However I just saw Phelps interviewed on News 24. The questions were actually almost begging for signs of division. Phelps countered with we are all people of goodwill working to get this passed.

    That drive for clicks is a huge part of what is driving the division in our policy debates and they have the gall to claim its all social media v

  6. “How is soccer calling itself ‘football’ screwing with the English language when soccer was the first game called ‘football’? And indeed, the game where actually the only part of you meant to deal with the ball is your foot”

    The first soccer ‘football’ game was played in Sydney in 1880, and the first Australian football match was played in Melbourne in 1858. I’d have thought the one that existed 24 years before, would have the rights to the term ‘football’.

  7. Sohar

    So we’re screwing with the Australian language, not the English one, then.

    Soccer was being played in England well before 1858 and being called ‘football’.

  8. Rugby Union, at least in Sydney, is a game mostly played by those that went to or are at private schools. League is the more popular variant while football is by far the most played sport by the average person.

  9. Zoomster

    No screwing around with the language.

    If AFL was big in England they would join in call it Soccer too.

    That distant third is why rugby hasn’t changed the way people talk about it.

    Its the same in the US with NFL being big. Its the marketing geniuses of soccer that are trying to reverse this natural division to promote soccer as “The Real Game” that are screwing with the language.

  10. I’ve finally discovered, through Twitter, what this penile shaped object being admired by ScoMo and Pyne really is. It’s a submarine. Perhaps the rest of you already knew!

  11. Meanwhile the big news in Melbourne town is the stabbing of Tony Mokbel in prison yesterday.
    It follows the same pattern as to what occurred when Carl Williams was bashed to death in prison
    The herald Sun runs a story and next day voila.

  12. VP

    On the day of Black Saturday we drove three hours through areas which, only hours later, didn’t exist. The last part of our journey we were watching fires burning on the side of the road.

    We reached my sister in law’s place in Eltham – she was surprised to see us. We said ‘soccer game tomorrow’ and she told us not to be silly, no one would be there (all of our team had to undertake the same journey we had). We said, “You don’t understand soccer players.”

    Next morning, half a dozen families took exactly the same trip we had to be there for the match. Their only complaint was that they’d had to detour.

  13. Mr. Trump’s rally, his first since an acrimonious debate over funding of the wall shut down the government, comes as negotiations in Washington to head off another shutdown are in danger of collapse. His words could inflame the national debate over immigration, which is already a powerful rallying cry for Democrats hoping to challenge Mr. Trump in 2020.

    Among those potential challengers is Beto O’Rourke, the rising Democratic star and former congressman from El Paso. In a bit of political theater that could be a foretaste of the 2020 campaign, Mr. O’Rourke will speak at a rally less than a mile away from the El Paso County Coliseum, where Mr. Trump is scheduled to address 6,000 supporters.

    The president’s choice of El Paso to make his argument is curious on several grounds. Violent crime actually declined for years in this vibrant immigrant city across the river from Ciudad Juárez, Mexico, before the Army Corps of Engineers began building a fence in 2008. It rose during the two years before and after the barrier was constructed.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/11/us/politics/donald-trump-el-paso.html

    What is the point of these trips to Mexico? Even Republicans in border states don’t want a wall so who is he trying to appeal to? The public can’t vote in the congress to give him the funding and the Democrats aren’t for turning.

  14. I don’t usually comment, but for the record, I believe the term ‘Football’ originally referred to any ball sport that wasn’t played on horseback. Hence all of the codes qualify. I believe all bat sports were called cricket.

  15. Darn @ #1003 Tuesday, February 12th, 2019 – 7:50 am

    zoomster says:
    Tuesday, February 12, 2019 at 7:45 am
    How is soccer calling itself ‘football’ screwing with the English language when soccer was the first game called ‘football’? And indeed, the game where actually the only part of you meant to deal with the ball is your foot.

    Good point Zoomster. I would say that of the three major codes in this country, soccer is by far the most entitled to the call itself football, followed by the AFL, with rugby a distant third.

    As soccer is the only football code where the ball can be played with the head… Or, as no part of the arms can be legally ued, perhaps ‘armless football.

  16. One only has to look at Dan to see the insidious effects this soccer disease has 🙂
    The sooner we find a vaccine, the better for the kiddies of Australia

  17. Zoomster

    I did not suggest you were. If I was I would have said you were screwing with the language. I actually said it was the marketing geniuses that were screwing with the language

  18. Pamela Curr
    ‏@pamelacurr
    27m27 minutes ago

    Honestly all this is rubbish about convicted murderers- no one gets a refugee visa if they are a convicted murderer- there are no convicted murderers needing medical care and transfer #rnbreakfast

  19. This debate we are seeing on language is why AFL was known as Australian Rules Football for so long.

    I guess the marketers didn’t like the acronym

  20. There is no such code of football as AFL. The AFL is one league of the code known as Australian football.

    I am constantly amazed that anyone can ever be so thick as to not tell the difference.

  21. Vogon Poet @ #16135 Tuesday, February 12th, 2019 – 9:08 am

    One only has to look at Dan to see the insidious effects this soccer disease has 🙂
    The sooner we find a vaccine, the better for the kiddies of Australia

    I always thought that Alan Jones, Joe Hockey and The Cycling Smeagol were more post-exposure prophylaxis for ARU disease.

    I played prop in South Australian schoolboy RU – being the only position in the only ball game where my extreme myopia was no problem. QED.

  22. I propose a simple solution to the football scandal that seems to have erupted on PB.

    Henceforth:-

    Australian Rules Football shall be known as Footy;
    Soccer shall be known as Football;
    Rugby League shall be known as Rugby;
    Rugby Union shall be known as Crumpetbum.

    Problem solved.

  23. Interesting.

    Swing voters still exist. Enough Americans switched from backing Barack Obama in 2012 to Donald Trump in 2016 to House Democrats in 2018 to help decide those elections. I understand why some Democratic activists are instead drawn to the idea of victory through turnout: It offers the promise of avoiding any political compromise. The problem is, there are virtually no examples of Democrats winning close races without emphasizing persuasion. The 2018 attempts, in Florida, Georgia and Texas, all fell short.

    Still, these swing voters don’t think of themselves as radical. They are typically patriotic and religious. Many think of themselves as moderate and, strange as it may sound, many thought of Trump as moderate in 2016. When Republicans can paint a Democrat as an out-of-touch elitist — like they did Hillary Clinton, John Kerry, Al Gore or Michael Dukakis — the Republican candidate often wins these voters. When Democrats can instead come off as middle-class fighters, they tend to win.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/10/opinion/amy-klobuchar-sherrod-brown-2020.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage

    The writer believes Trump would fear Amy Klobuchar and Sherrod Brown (if he decides to run) the most because they have what it takes to appeal to those swing voters, evidenced by their own individual strong electoral results in states that aren’t typically Democrat.

  24. Re Lizzie @9:22. That reminds me of another Parliamentary exchange:

    Member for X: “The honourable member for Y has the brains of a sheep!”

    Speaker: “The honourable member for X will retract that comment”.

    Member for X: “Certainly Mr Speaker. The honourable member for Y does not have the brains of a sheep”.

    Probably apocryphal.

  25. Ides:

    Yes that’s true, but Klobuchar has performed strongly in districts that went Republican last year – winning her Senate seat in a landslide. Also the ‘blueness’ of Minnesota is fading. Obama carried Minnesota over Romney in 2012 by 8 points, but in 2016 Clinton defeated Trump by only 1.5 percentage points in that state.

  26. Reluctant as I am to post racist cartoons from Murdoch organs, we should be aware of what the Daily ToiletPaper is printing in Sydney and what grubby game they are playing – I assume “Warren” is Warren Brown. This garbage printed today.

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