Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

The second Newspoll for the year finds no continuation of the Coalition’s recent improving trend.

After a period of improving poll results for the Coalition, the latest Newspoll records a tiny shift on primary votes to Labor, but not another to alter their existing lead of 53-47 from a fortnight ago. Labor is up one point on the primary vote to 39%, after a three-point drop last time, while the Coalition is steady on 37%, retaining their two-point gain in the last poll. The Greens are steady on 9%, while One Nation is down a point to 5%, the lowest it’s been in a year. Scott Morrison’s personal ratings are improved, with approval up three to 43% and disapproval down two to 45%, and his lead as prime minister out from 43-36 to 44-35. Bill Shorten is down one on approval to 36% and up one on disapproval to 51%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1567.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,273 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

  1. My take on Qanda. WTF is going on in Victoria?

    Clearly Vic Lib members are annoyed at the goings on in their state, but when you have people like Kevin Andrews being automatically re-endorsed without having a preselection, and all this going down after the Liberals’ poor showing in the state election, WTAF?

  2. Fess
    Well done.
    It is better than paying exorbitant funeral director fees for zilch outcome for anyone.
    Someone had to practise on someone’s cadavar to be able to do that perfect thyroid operation on me, so it is only fair to support science/medicine in return.

    I am working on the theory nothing will be much use to anyone

  3. nath @ #889 Monday, February 11th, 2019 – 9:55 pm

    during the accumulation phase is not there to be passed on to the kids.
    ________________________________
    Funny that. I seem to remember my grandparents saying that every move they made was to give something to their grandchildren. Times change I suppose.

    Nothing stopping that, it just shouldn’t be subsidised by the taxpayer.

  4. Puff:

    I owe my human biology and physiology knowledge to the bequeathed cadavers at our university. In 1st year they covered the head, hands and feet to ‘dehumanise’ the body for us precious petal first years, but this was dropped in year 2.

  5. BB the issue of so many people seeming to die from something [in this case pancreatic cancer] is merely a coincidence of you knowing of a few cases within a short space of time. With pancreatic cancer you will always tend to hear of every case you are associated with as it is nearly universally fatal, and most people know this. Inevitably in almost all the cases you encounter, the person will die.

  6. guytaur
    Yes, WITB really goes close to the other side. I think because the storyline and characters are so strong and everything is in context. I do not like horror either. I read two Stephen King books and will not touch them with a barge pole.

  7. Andrew

    And you have hit the nail on the head. Every time a Tory politician or Murdoch journalist tells the story of a “Frank” and how he will be affected by the imputation credits reform, you can bet they never tell the whole story.

    Unless we know the full circumstances, whether assets are help inside or outside superannuation, whether the shares are owned by an individual or held in a SMSF of even a trust structure, we can be fairly sure that the numbers are being spun at best, or are most likely outright lies.

  8. There’s no doubt there’s going to be people on modest incomes with modest assets that are going to be hit by this.

    A self funded retiree, no super, owns a home outright, with 700k in shares, getting about 35k in dividends and say 15k in franking credits is going to suffer a significant drop in income. Of course they can sell their own home and rearrange their affairs, but then they are liable for stamp duty, and lots of other charges they otherwise would not have had to pay.

  9. Fess
    That is fascinating. I would be throwing up. I suppose that is why one has to start in first year.

    A big thank you to those who do donate, and to their families for following their wishes. We need to support our medical students. We never know when we might need a surgeon.

    I would not mind being turned into a skeleton for students to study but I suppose artificial ones are the go now.

  10. I watched Q&A tonight. Dreyfus was good, very good and more importantly he was enjoying himself.

    I particularly like the way he pounced on Henderson when she was liberal with the truth. I believe Labor members should do this at every available opportunity when in a mixed public forum such as Q&A, or the morning talk shows.

    Love the audience responces to the Franking Credit arguments. Dreyfus and the young lady got some very raptuous clapping when they pressed their points. if it is any indication of how the general public feel about the Frankin Credits then I believe Labor is on a winner here providing they consolidate their policy to the voters.

  11. nath @ #913 Monday, February 11th, 2019 – 10:09 pm

    There’s no doubt there’s going to be people on modest incomes with modest assets that are going to be hit by this.

    A self funded retiree, no super, owns a home outright, with 700k in shares, getting about 35k in dividends and say 15k in franking credits is going to suffer a significant drop in income. Of course they can sell their own and rearrange their affairs, but then they are liable for stamp duty, and lots of other charges they otherwise would not have had to pay.

    What part of using the accumulated capital for income don’t you understand? No one has a right to have their capital preserved at the expense of the taxpayer.

  12. The more us plebs learn about these Franking Credits for free money for people with millions in their kitty, the angrier we are getting.

    Morrison may have misjudged it. How very unusual? (sarc)

  13. Fess
    That is fascinating. I would be throwing up. I suppose that is why one has to start in first year.

    Puff:

    From memory one of the first investigative forays into the cadaver was the bowel and digestive system. In hindsight I can’t imagine having to do it on paper and was thankful we had actual human remains to work with.

  14. It’s Time
    says:
    \
    What part of using the accumulated capital for income don’t you understand? No one has a right to have their capital preserved at the expense of the taxpayer.
    ___________________________________
    Well then we get into a situation where people are constantly running a gauntlet of using up their capital until they get under the Pension asset test and are beholden to Centrelink.

    With ever increasing life spans, continually getting people to draw down to that point only puts more pressure on the budget.

  15. Puffytmd, I don’t know if you realise, but virtually everybody* will be taking a hit with the franking policy.

    All working people have an accumulation super account. The earnings on the funds will be reduced. Some of the credits can be used offset the 15% tax on earnings, the rest of the credits will be extinguished (at the moment they are returned as a cash rebate).

    Self funded retirees will lose the entire credit that they would have previously recieved as a cash handout.

    * pensioners are not affected.

  16. “where else would you advise him to invest his $500,000-“

    Obtain the Prospectus of a raft of Fund Managers (and I would add Fund Managers with International reputation), review risk weighting in accordance with your bias and comfort, compare performance over 15 years (so encompassing the GFC Stock Market Crash NOT dating from post the GFC) and then invest

    As these funds are pooled funds dividend imputation is not an issue

    You then have the benefit of diversification – from Australian and Global Bonds to Australian and Global Alternatives (unhedged)

    Diversification hedges against risk – as does time

    The other contributor -including in retirement – is compounding

    The government dictate the minimum Allocated Pension you must access (and the percentage rises from 4% by age)

    At 65, Superannuation Accruals of $500,000- MUST provide a tax free Allocated Pension of $25,000- PA as a minimum

    What you look for from the Fund Manager is for performance to exceed the Allocated Pension draw in any one year such that your Balance increases as does your income (as a percentage of the balance) and to cover Cost of Living increases (because, being self funded, you receive no support from government and no Concessions apart from the State Government Seniors Card)

    To invest the $500,000- into (say) Australian Bank Shares attracted by fully franked dividends has seen your Capital reduce by upwards of 40% over the past 4 years

    So you are heading toward Aged Pensioner status because your wealth (excluding the family home) has been decimated

    Ditto Telstra

    I would say something about the contributor who posed the question prefacing this contribution – but I will allow those reading this contribution to arrive at their own interpretation

    I might add that, since retiring 1006 weeks ago, the average annual return on my superannuation investments have been 7.46% PA

    I have accessed an Allocated Pension from age 62

    And I monitor performance weekly including by Fund Manager and where the raft of Fund Managers allows comparatives

    Last week was an excellent week both on investment and currency

    But these “big” weeks are rare

    Last week actually provided my yearly Allocated Pension draw – but then you go back to performance post 31st August so there are swings and roundabouts – hence time

  17. Mirabella didn’t leave the apology. She just didn’t turn up.

    The interesting thing was that her office staff expected that she would. They were unable to even get in contact with her for a couple of hours.

    My theory (which is mine) was that she didn’t miss it on purpose, but that she slept in – and then made a ‘virtue’ out of missing it by saying she’d decided to mount a boycott.

  18. D-money, thanks for the response.

    Pancreatic cancer seems to be particularly malignant and nasty.

    Perhaps I notice it out of primal fear.

  19. All working people have an accumulation super account. The earnings on the funds will be reduced. Some of the credits can be used offset the 15% tax on earnings, the rest of the credits will be extinguished (at the moment they are returned as a cash rebate).

    I don’t know for sure that I’m affected, but if so then my assumption is my being affected is indirect to the point of being irrelevant. And the point of people like me is that we are still working and can therefore still restructure our arrangements accordingly.

  20. Observer
    To invest the $500,000- into (say) Australian Bank Shares attracted by fully franked dividends has seen your Capital reduce by upwards of 40% over the past 4 years
    __________________________
    Ok but if you had bought in 2008 when CBA shares were $27, not so bad then.

  21. PeeBee

    ‘All working people have an accumulation super account. The earnings on the funds will be reduced.’\

    No, these funds are not affected – for a start, they pay tax.

  22. Observer, one financial advisor said that investing in OS shares may well be a better option than local shares.

    For the super funds that I deal with OS shares have been better performers than local shares. With the loss of the franking credits, this gap will be greater.

    If a lot of people do this, demand for Aussie shares would be less and their price would come down.

    Have you put any thought into this strategy?

  23. My theory (which is mine) was that she didn’t miss it on purpose, but that she slept in – and then made a ‘virtue’ out of missing it by saying she’d decided to mount a boycott.

    Surely that’s worse? Taking a stand to miss the national apology on principle, yeah you get to defend your position. But missing it because you slept in and owed missing the apology as a kind of defacto position in sleepytime retrospect? Umm, no.

  24. fess

    I’m not saying it’s better, I’m saying it’s what I think happened. No one could find her. She took 24 hours to come out with an explanation – not something you need to do if you made a decision beforehand.

  25. re Frank in Sarah Henderson’s example……. we are missing information so it is hard to tell….. either he has much more then she started and is ineligible for an age pension or he gets a part age pension and is not effected by the changes and keeps his franking. payments

  26. PeeBee

    If Labor’s policy endangered the worth of Australian shares in any way, we’d be hearing all about it. We’re not, because really, it doesn’t.

  27. Zoomster: “No, these funds are not affected – for a start, they pay tax.”

    The worst case if they have all their earning from fully franked Aussie share dividends. The tax liability is only 15% on earnings. Therefore they can utilise half of the credit (as franked credits are 30%).

    There are some unfranked dividends, or dividends with less than 30% franking credits, but then some of the capital gains are discounted to 10%.

    The best case scenario is accumulation accounts select investment options other than Aussie share. They will not be affected.

  28. Bushfire Bill:

    Speaking of death (well, body farms are related to death), can any medical people here tell me why, if it’s such a rare disease, so many people seem to be dying of pancreatic cancer?

    It has already been answered, but it’s because almost everyone who gets it dies from it.

    I’m not a medico, but have an interest in cancer and survival statistics. I recall reading a pdf file a couple of years ago, outlining 20 year survival-rates for various types of cancers. I can’t remember if this was Australian or overseas data, but the 20 year survival-rate for pancreatic cancer was 0.8%, the lowest for any primary site. I suspect a good number of those who do make the 0.8% also have the less common neuroendocrine forms, which have a better prognosis.

  29. Billionaire investor Warren Buffett famously stated that “diversification is protection against ignorance. It makes little sense if you know what you are doing.”

  30. Seems fairly clear that the more the public finds out about Labor’s franking credits policy, the more they appreciate it.

    Maybe we should thank Tim Wilson for the free publicity?

    Note that Morrison, in promising to personally protect us from storms, cattle deaths, domestic violence, Bill Shorten, greedy banks, Muslim terrorists, the criminal element, armardas of future Boat people, Ice fiends, Lucifer, violent misogynists, bushfires and (for all I know) potholes and barking dogs, did not once mention protecting us from a “Retiree Tax”?

    I was waiting for it, but it never came up.

    I’m starting to think he’s peaking a little too early. He’s getting all the boogey-men out of the way up front, so Labor doesn’t have to.

  31. PeeBee

    Every single piece of expert analysis I’ve seen has emphasised that super funds are not affected in any way whatsoever. It’s why the focus is on self funded retirees, who have assets outside of super funds they rely on.

    Nothing I have seen has suggested there will be any impact on shares or share values.

  32. fess

    Yes – I think that was about the time she decided to lurch even further right, emboldened by the feedback she got from RWNJs for not attending. Part of the reason the electorate took a while to get rid of her was that she didn’t do too bad a job to begin with.

  33. It’s Time, rossmcg, thanks for stepping into the breach.

    As for the details of “Frank’s” situation – we don’t need them, because whatever they are, he can eat his capital, as the system intended it to be.

    Bushfire,

    My Grandmother had pancreatic cancer in her early eighties, survived, and lived to 94.

  34. (Quote) … Mirabella didn’t leave the apology. She just didn’t turn up.

    The interesting thing was that her office staff expected that she would. They were unable to even get in contact with her for a couple of hours.

    My theory (which is mine) was that she didn’t miss it on purpose, but that she slept in – and then made a ‘virtue’ out of missing it by saying she’d decided to mount a boycott.
    – – – – – – – – –
    The big question is this ….. Where was BK during these unaccounted missing two hours?

  35. Zoomster, ‘If Labor’s policy endangered the worth of Australian shares in any way, we’d be hearing about it.’

    The laws of supply and demand state that there will be an effect. I am not sure how big the effect would be nor whether the retirees would be bothered.

    I do remember being at a meeting with a financial person a long while ago (shortly after compulsory super was introduced) saying part of the increase in the share price was due to compulsory super pumping it up. So I guess, if there was a flight of money into OS shares, the price of Aussie shares would go the other way.

  36. Billionaire investor Warren Buffett famously stated that “diversification is protection against ignorance. It makes little sense if you know what you are doing.”

    Keynes said pretty much the same, in his arguments with Fisher.

  37. Fund Mangers manage pooled investments – upon which tax is paid so the proposed changes have no effect

    And consider this

    With the introduction of the GST, the headline said self funded retirees would be compensated $3,000-

    Except

    When you read the fine print you had to be a self funded retiree ALSO eligible for a part pension

    So where is the consistency with this Liberal Party outrage?

  38. Zoomster, here is part of a news letter a financial advisor has sent out in newsletter to his clients. Sorry it is a little lengthy.

    This could result in a substantial difference in the return of pension funds, again depending on how the fund is structured. Take the example of an individual with a $1.6 million pension fund, fully invested in Australian shares. Also assume that these shares pay a 4% dividend, of which 90% are fully franked. Under current laws this fund receives a refund of $24 685 of unused imputation credits. If Labor’s policy is implemented, this refund will drop to $0. This has the potential to reduce the earnings of every pension fund that invests in Australian shares.

    For this proposed policy to apply, Labor has to win power at the next election and then get this draft legislation through a fractured Senate. As such, it may never happen.

    However, if it did, it’s highly unlikely that the tax industry would simply take their medicine and move on. As can be seen in the above example, tax advisers would encourage accumulation funds to adopt churning type strategies. Those with pension funds could take other forms of asset re-arrangement to minimise the impact of the new laws.

    For example, say an individual had a SMSF of $1.6 million, fully invested in Australian shares. Say the individual also had an $80 000 assessable income as well as $1.6 million (in their name) in international shares, also paying a 4% dividend.

    In this situation, the logical approach would be to have the SMSF sell all the Australian shares and the investor sell all the international shares. Then, on the same day, the SMSF purchases all the international shares and the investor purchases all the Australian shares. The dividend income from the SMSF is now tax-free, but the $24 685 of franking credits are no longer being wasted, as they are offsetting the tax on the investor’s $80 000 assessable income and the dividends payable.

    This example doesn’t take into account the capital gains consequences of the investor suddenly selling $1.6 million in international shares. However, depending on losses and how frequently these shares have been traded, this could be minimal.

    An unintended consequence of this policy could be that superannuation funds abandon Australian share ownership. Given that the franking credits are a powerful advantage of these funds, this loss could be enough to see investors move more into the (better diversified) international share market. If every superannuation fund in Australia suddenly took this action, it could have a very negative impact on Australian share prices, as there could be lots of sellers and very few buyers.

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