Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

The second Newspoll for the year finds no continuation of the Coalition’s recent improving trend.

After a period of improving poll results for the Coalition, the latest Newspoll records a tiny shift on primary votes to Labor, but not another to alter their existing lead of 53-47 from a fortnight ago. Labor is up one point on the primary vote to 39%, after a three-point drop last time, while the Coalition is steady on 37%, retaining their two-point gain in the last poll. The Greens are steady on 9%, while One Nation is down a point to 5%, the lowest it’s been in a year. Scott Morrison’s personal ratings are improved, with approval up three to 43% and disapproval down two to 45%, and his lead as prime minister out from 43-36 to 44-35. Bill Shorten is down one on approval to 36% and up one on disapproval to 51%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1567.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,273 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

  1. Steve777
    says:
    Monday, February 11, 2019 at 10:13 pm
    Frank (cited by the “Liberal” lady in blue) has $10,000 in franking credits, so about $23,000 in dividends, so he has a share portfolio worth of about half a million.
    Frank can get stuffed. He’s probably claiming a tax free pension as well. He doesn’t need handouts.
    ___________________________________
    Not if Frank owns a house, then he can only own about 25o,000 in shares and get the pension. There’s no doubt there’s going to be some people on very low incomes seriously impacted by these changes. Those just above the Pension assets test cut off. I think Diogenes proposed a 10k per person limit to credit refunds. Seems like a good policy to me. But of course Bowen and Shorten will lose money for election promises if they do that.

  2. Puffy

    Good on you!!!!!!

    Fantastic even after you die you will be helping to save lives or at least catching the murderers.

    You have given me something to think about.

  3. PuffyTMD @ #849 Monday, February 11th, 2019 – 7:25 pm

    Just as an aside, I am very excited. I found out that in the Blue Mountains of NSW there is the only Bodyfarm in the Southern Hemisphere and I have the forms on the way to donate my body to it when I kick the bucket.

    Where science is concerned, I am putting my whole body into it.

    You can donate your remains to universities for medical students and others to learn about human biology. I learned about human physiology through working with cadavers, and if you are healthy you should be able to do this.

  4. Not if Frank owns a house, then he can only own about 25o,000 in shares and get the pension. There’s no doubt there’s going to be some people on very low incomes seriously impacted by these changes.

    Ha, frank can eat some of his capital then. If he owns his house, he deosn’t have to spend it on rent.

  5. The “business woman” was a defeated Liberal candidate at the most recent Victorian election

    Mayne, who I know, has been on both the Manningham and Melbourne City Councils and comes from a consistent position

    He was, remember, a Kennett staffer who has agitated against the direction of the Liberal Party hence standing as an Independent on both Councils and against Andrews in Menzies (deliberately targeted)

  6. Andy Murray
    says:
    Monday, February 11, 2019 at 10:33 pm
    Not if Frank owns a house, then he can only own about 25o,000 in shares and get the pension. There’s no doubt there’s going to be some people on very low incomes seriously impacted by these changes.
    Ha, frank can eat some of his capital then. If he owns his house, he deosn’t have to spend it on rent.
    ________________________________________________
    Are you serious? You think it’s good that someone on a modest 32k loses 10k of that? all because he has saved 500k?

  7. The Greens whinging that Labor caving in again on refugees. There are plenty of times the Greens have caved in and supported the Libs too.

  8. If Frank is a single male homeowner, like me, he can have about $550k in assets and qualified for a part pension if he meets the age requirement.

    If he chooses to invest his $550k in Australian shares to provide his income with dividends topped up with franking credits he is very badly advised and exposing himself to much greater risk than me.

    A stock market crash could do him more harm that Labor ever could.

  9. Jones confirms “Business Lady” has a “future in politics”. Pretty disappointing of QandA actually, not to reveal the conflict of interest.

  10. Tony Jones going anti Liberal as his Swan song.

    Next week Pill testing. Another issue the LNP are dinosaurs on.

    In NSW we rightly call the Liberals the fun police.

  11. The last thing Labor wants to do is be accused of letting criminals etc into the country as the Libs would make sure they used this line over and over again in their ongoing scare campaign right up to the election.

  12. Rossmcg
    says:
    Monday, February 11, 2019 at 10:38 pm
    If Frank is a single male homeowner, like me, he can have about $550k in assets and qualified for a part pension if he meets the age requirement.
    If he chooses to invest his $550k in Australian shares to provide his income with dividends topped up with franking credits he is very badly advised and exposing himself to much greater risk than me.
    A stock market crash could do him more harm that Labor ever could.
    ______________________________________
    where else would you advise him to park his 500k?

  13. nath @ #860 Monday, February 11th, 2019 – 9:36 pm

    Andy Murray
    says:
    Monday, February 11, 2019 at 10:33 pm
    Not if Frank owns a house, then he can only own about 25o,000 in shares and get the pension. There’s no doubt there’s going to be some people on very low incomes seriously impacted by these changes.
    Ha, frank can eat some of his capital then. If he owns his house, he deosn’t have to spend it on rent.
    ________________________________________________
    Are you serious? You think it’s good that someone on a modest 32k loses 10k of that? all because he has saved 500k?

    What crap. The purpose of superannuation is not to leave the capital untouched and pass it onto the kids. If you want to live a $42,000 pa lifestyle then use the required capital to do so, not expect an unearned handout from government.

  14. I repeat, if you wish to apply for government assistance then go to Centrelink

    The payments system has Centrelink

    The collection system has the ATO

    The ATO should not be attending the function of Centrelink (which it does by giving tax refunds to those who have paid no tax)

    Problem solved

    Centrelink can determine eligibility

  15. Fess,
    I am trying to talk other members of the family into donating their cadavers to the universities.

    I am a true crime fan and would love to help catch murderers. Apparently in Australia ours mummify more than the ones in the USA bodyfarms, and it is quite different to what happens to pigs, the more common study form. I listen to the ‘Casefile’ podcast. Crime and Investigation have been an interest of mine since I was a teenager. I think it is the puzzle solving aspect of it.

  16. It’s Time
    says:
    Monday, February 11, 2019 at 10:44 pm
    nath @ #860 Monday, February 11th, 2019 – 9:36 pm
    Andy Murray
    says:
    Monday, February 11, 2019 at 10:33 pm
    Not if Frank owns a house, then he can only own about 25o,000 in shares and get the pension. There’s no doubt there’s going to be some people on very low incomes seriously impacted by these changes.
    Ha, frank can eat some of his capital then. If he owns his house, he deosn’t have to spend it on rent.
    ________________________________________________
    Are you serious? You think it’s good that someone on a modest 32k loses 10k of that? all because he has saved 500k?
    What crap. The purpose of superannuation is not to leave the capital untouched and pass it onto the kids. If you want to live a $42,000 pa lifestyle then use the required capital to do so, not expect an unearned handout from government.
    _______________________________
    Where are you getting this 42k from. If he gets 23k from dividends he wont be getting anywhere near the full pension?

  17. Bushfire Bill @ #458 Monday, February 11th, 2019 – 8:51 pm

    These people will be in HOSPITAL, whether they are terrorists or Mother Theresa.

    WHAT’S THE PROBLEM?

    Clearly the problem is that if we don’t like something you’ve done in the past we should be able to indefinitely withhold medical treatment from you. Or okay, it’s not really ‘indefinite’. The withholding definitely stops when you die from lack of proper medical care.

  18. VP

    Dreyfus spoke with such confidence and Tony Jones introduction makes me think the numbers are there.

    We shall see but it’s looking good tonight. 🙂

  19. Guytaur
    That was my introduction. I remember a fictional show, CSI or something. The murderer, who worked there, hid the body at the Bodyfarm and no-one realised there was an extra one. Clever plot.

  20. Speaking of death (well, body farms are related to death), can any medical people here tell me why, if it’s such a rare disease, so many people seem to be dying of pancreatic cancer?

    Serious question

  21. nath @ #876 Monday, February 11th, 2019 – 9:46 pm

    It’s Time
    says:
    Monday, February 11, 2019 at 10:44 pm
    nath @ #860 Monday, February 11th, 2019 – 9:36 pm
    Andy Murray
    says:
    Monday, February 11, 2019 at 10:33 pm
    Not if Frank owns a house, then he can only own about 25o,000 in shares and get the pension. There’s no doubt there’s going to be some people on very low incomes seriously impacted by these changes.
    Ha, frank can eat some of his capital then. If he owns his house, he deosn’t have to spend it on rent.
    ________________________________________________
    Are you serious? You think it’s good that someone on a modest 32k loses 10k of that? all because he has saved 500k?
    What crap. The purpose of superannuation is not to leave the capital untouched and pass it onto the kids. If you want to live a $42,000 pa lifestyle then use the required capital to do so, not expect an unearned handout from government.
    _______________________________
    Where are you getting this 42k from. If he gets 23k from dividends he wont be getting anywhere near the full pension?

    Sorry, substitute $32,000 lifestyle for $42,000 lifestyle. The concept remains the same. The superannuation which previously enjoyed concessional tax rates during the accumulation phase is not there to be passed on to the kids. Live off its earnings or eat into the capital. Don’t expect a further unearned handout.

  22. It’s Time
    says:
    Sorry, substitute $32,000 lifestyle for $42,000 lifestyle. The concept remains the same. The superannuation which previously enjoyed concessional tax rates during the accumulation phase is not there to be passed on to the kids. Live off its earnings or eat into the capital. Don’t expect a further unearned handout.
    ______________________________
    Ok. But if he is a part pensioner then he still gets the Franking credits. If he is not a part pensioner, I would advise him to spend, or give to a child, the excess amount of cash to qualify for the part pension. Problem solved.

  23. Guytaur
    Can you explain what happened tonight?I have been out.The Oz says Shorten has backed down but they are still voting for the Phelps bill according to Dreyfus as you say.

  24. Clearly the problem is that if we don’t like something you’ve done in the past we should be able to indefinitely withhold medical treatment from you.

    Tony Mokbel is a criminal baddie. So why was he transferred (indeed helicoptered) to intensive care after his stabbing today, and not left to die in a pool of blood?

  25. during the accumulation phase is not there to be passed on to the kids.
    ________________________________
    Funny that. I seem to remember my grandparents saying that every move they made was to give something to their grandchildren. Times change I suppose.

  26. Six members of Nelson’s opposition caucus — Don Randall, Sophie Mirabella, Dennis Jensen, Wilson Tuckey, Luke Simpkins, and Alby Schultz — left the House in protest at the apology.

    …all of whom are no longer in the Parliament for one reason or another!

  27. Steve Davis

    Labor is seeking what Dreyfus is calling Clarifications

    Labor will be voting the Senate Bill through.

    It’s going to be a popcorn day from the sounds of it.

  28. Fess,
    I am trying to talk other members of the family into donating their cadavers to the universities.

    Puff:

    If my body is suitably functional at death I will donate my remains for medical education. If not then harvest whatever organs can be harvested and then cremation.

  29. I think I got started with Silent Witness. I will never forget that theme music. Haunting.
    Well the first was Z Cars. Another theme I won’t forget.
    Of course I did the Aussie shows growing up. Homicide. Division 4.
    But the real stuff was Silent Witness.

    I am a great fan of the Wire in the Blood series of books.

    Cadfael. Hey remember the Cadfeal tv show. The Olde English monk who solved crimes.

  30. The Murdoch press are gunning for Labor.
    The LNP are gunning for Labor.
    The Greens are gunning for Labor.

    Most commentary on the Medivac Bill can be seen through this lens.

  31. Sorry, the “Frank” example has me confused. Does “Frank” have a public aged pension, or does is his pension superannuation? A superannuation pension isn’t meant to be set so the principal is preserved. It’s meant to depreciate over time. If his super balance is under $1million, he’d be still doing OK by parking the value of that share portfolio in his superfund. If his portfolio is on top of – say for arguments sake – a $1.6 million SMSF pension (where he is only taking out 2% per annum as a pension = $32,000 tax free per year) then the principal of his fun is actually increasing in value. In effect the tax payer is subsidising his living income to the tune of $10k per year, just so he can preserve his pile. That’s just rank estate planning. Tax free. Subsidised by us. He can get stuffed.

  32. Rossmcg
    says:
    Monday, February 11, 2019 at 10:55 pm
    It’s time
    And of course as the part pensioner’s capital depletes his asset-test assessed pension goes up!
    It’s a great system.
    ______________________
    It is actually a pretty good system. Unlike decades ago when homeless and poverty stricken elderly people were a common and unfortunate sight in all our cities.

  33. Andrew_Earlwood
    says:
    Monday, February 11, 2019 at 10:58 pm
    Sorry, the “Frank” example has me confused. Does “Frank” have a public aged pension, or does is his pension superannuation? A superannuation pension isn’t meant to be set so the principal is preserved. It’s meant to depreciate over time. If his super balance is under $1million, he’d be still doing OK by parking the value of that share portfolio in his superfund. If his portfolio is on top of – say for arguments sake – a $1.6 million SMSF pension (where he is only taking out 2% per annum as a pension = $32,000 tax free per year) then the principal of his fun is actually increasing in value. In effect the tax payer is subsidising his living income to the tune of $10k per year, just so he can preserve his pile. That’s just rank estate planning. Tax free. Subsidised by us. He can get stuffed.
    ____________________________
    That’s right, there are so many variables and the information so limited that we can only guess.

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