Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

The second Newspoll for the year finds no continuation of the Coalition’s recent improving trend.

After a period of improving poll results for the Coalition, the latest Newspoll records a tiny shift on primary votes to Labor, but not another to alter their existing lead of 53-47 from a fortnight ago. Labor is up one point on the primary vote to 39%, after a three-point drop last time, while the Coalition is steady on 37%, retaining their two-point gain in the last poll. The Greens are steady on 9%, while One Nation is down a point to 5%, the lowest it’s been in a year. Scott Morrison’s personal ratings are improved, with approval up three to 43% and disapproval down two to 45%, and his lead as prime minister out from 43-36 to 44-35. Bill Shorten is down one on approval to 36% and up one on disapproval to 51%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1567.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,273 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

  1. Shellbell

    When you wrote this earlier today about NSW law

    4. committed by the accused or some accomplice with him or her in an attempt to commit, or during or immediately after the commission of, an offence punishable by at least 25 years imprisonment (constructive murder).

    Would that be something like kidnapping someone for ransom, but then the person accidentally dying in your custody?

  2. In the light of the AFP failing to discover any wrongdoing, this quote from de Garis in Court today is interesting.

    Cash’s former media adviser, David De Garis, told the court on Monday he learned police were set to raid the union’s offices about midday on 24 October. Asked who told him about the upcoming raids, De Garis replied: “I respectfully decline to answer that question on the grounds it may incriminate me.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2019/feb/11/labor-coalition-election-morrison-shorten-politics-live

  3. giving the Minister extra power to overrule

    I think considering the minister is going to be an LNP Minister at least 50% of the time and we have seen six years of corrupt evil LNP Ministers giving the minister any power doesn’t work.


  4. guytaur says:
    Monday, February 11, 2019 at 8:10 pm

    FredNK
    ..

    Labor is doing badly when it’s to the right of a Tory of Wentworth.

    I think it is fair to say Labor has avoided the Liberal side of the wedge.
    My argument is the Green’s side is ineffective because the Greens have shown themselves to be pure; but will get nothing.

    You vote green when you mad but not mad enough to want to change things. If you want to change things you vote for the other party that can form government. The party the gives little value to “signals”, but big value on getting to a position to where their policies matter.

  5. davidwh @ #699 Monday, February 11th, 2019 – 5:20 pm

    Fess in simple terms giving the Minister extra power to overrule, extending the 24 hours review timeframe and restricting the changes to people already on Naru.

    Thanks! I don’t agree with giving the Minister extra powers (isn’t there enough ministerial oversight already?), but the other changes seem reasonable enough.

  6. Confessions @ #694 Monday, February 11th, 2019 – 8:18 pm

    So now the question is – will the crossbenchers agree to the changes Labor wants to make?

    Because if one of them balks, it is all over.

    I wouldn’t have thought the Greens would support Labor’s amendments.

    Banks, the Indi woman and Bandt show the limits of relying on the the independents to achieve anything.

  7. RR

    Not my area but looks like the old felony murder rule. If you are committing another crime of sufficient seriousness and someone gets killed by you in the process, then it is murder

  8. Cash’s former media adviser, David De Garis, told the court on Monday he learned police were set to raid the union’s offices about midday on 24 October. Asked who told him about the upcoming raids, De Garis replied: “I respectfully decline to answer that question on the grounds it may incriminate me.”

    Sounds like he’s pleading the fifth amendment. Can you do that in Australia?

  9. Fess we don’t know the substance yet so it’s hard to reach a final view on Labor’s position. My gut tells me Shorten will again pull off a reverse wedge and leave the Coalition hanging like a shag on a rock.

  10. Steve Price and Rita Pahahi very gung ho about Morrison’s speech at the NPC and salivating at the prospect of the government stampeding back into power on the back of Labor’s alleged weakness on border protection. Good luck with that.

    Price just said though that he thinks Shorten will be too smart to be tripped up over the Phelps bill; and I agree with him on that.

  11. davidwh:

    As long as the outcome is that people who need medical support are able to receive it.

    Morrison isn’t anywhere near the opponent Turnbull was, and Turnbull was pretty hopeless really. I don’t expect the govt to come out of this a winner – based on the shouty interviews from yesterday they already appear hysterical and dishevelled which is probably in and of itself telling.

  12. Very interesting analysis on ‘Mark the Ballot’ website –

    https://marktheballot.blogspot.com/

    “Following the change of Liberal Party leadership – from Turnbull to Morrison – I introduced a discontinuity into the model, which allows for a substantial single-day change in voter sentiment. Today, I further tweaked the model so that it estimates and reports on the size of the discontinuity.

    The short answer is that on the day, the change cost the Coalition three percentage points in TPP vote share.”

  13. citizen @ #713 Monday, February 11th, 2019 – 8:31 pm

    Wilson in a spot of bother with the law?

    Experts believe Liberal MP Tim Wilson may have breached privacy laws by failing to tell hundreds of people who signed up to a petition that their names, addresses, phone numbers and emails would be transferred to a multibillion-dollar fund manager.

    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/politics/federal/liberal-mp-tim-wilson-faces-breach-of-privacy-claims-20190210-p50wtk.html

    From reports today, Wilson has been told to resign by his own sides. But, Morrison is saying no! Will get ugly.

  14. You can refuse to answer a question on basis of self-incrimination grounds and then an elaborate process is gone through where a certificate is issued which only prevents the incriminating evidence being used in subsequent criminal proceedings.

    Normally the witness then answers the question with the benefit of the certificate.

  15. “Cash’s former media adviser, David De Garis, told the court on Monday he learned police were set to raid the union’s offices about midday on 24 October. Asked who told him about the upcoming raids, De Garis replied: “I respectfully decline to answer that question on the grounds it may incriminate me.”
    Sounds like he’s pleading the fifth amendment. Can you do that in Australia?”

    Under the Uniform Evidence Act, he can ask for a certificate that gives him a qualified* immunity that the evidence he gives can’t be used as evidence against him in seperate proceedings. After that certificate is issued he can be compelled to answer the question.

    *the immunity does not apply if his answers then given under oath are perjury.

  16. Experts believe Liberal MP Tim Wilson may have breached privacy laws by failing to tell hundreds of people who signed up to a petition that their names, addresses, phone numbers and emails would be transferred to a multibillion-dollar fund manager.

    Could one of the people on that petition list sue?

  17. Rocket Rocket @ #717 Monday, February 11th, 2019 – 8:34 pm

    Very interesting analysis on Mark The Ballot website –

    https://marktheballot.blogspot.com/

    “Following the change of Liberal Party leadership – from Turnbull to Morrison – I introduced a discontinuity into the model, which allows for a substantial single-day change in voter sentiment. Today, I further tweaked the model so that it estimates and reports on the size of the discontinuity.

    The short answer is that on the day, the change cost the Coalition three percentage points in TPP vote share.

    ” rel=”nofollow”>

    There’s your primary election issue.

  18. From Amy at the Guardian.

    So those changes Labor wanted are endorsed, but a caucus sub-committee will look at the final wording of any deal with the crossbench.

    One of the sticking points – the change from 24 hours (for a minister to sign off on or reject a transfer request) to ‘as soon as practically able’ – there are some who still want a figure put on it.

  19. Fess Turnbull is smart but lacks the political smarts that Shorten is excellent at. Morrison is struggling in the Third Division and can’t score a goal against Shorten.

    We have to hope Shorten can transition the political smarts into good government. Heaven knows we need that.

  20. re standards…;;; no name calling, no accusations of being groupers, no asserting the insanity of some one who you disagree with…….. argue the issue by all means… even criticise one or other party for being too pure not pure enough argue for alternate tactics but please no personal abuse

  21. John B. Fairfax on 730 tonight demonstrated the sharp contrast between an ethical media proprietor and the odious Murdochs and Packers who have traduced journalism in Australia over the past several decades. It’s an unfortunate adage that “good guys always finish last.”
    But the philanthropic Fairfax family ethos shone through their newspapers and will be long remembered. If we haven’t already done so, we should immediately support quality journalism through Crikey, now with Fairfax family backing for its new investigative unit.

  22. It wouldn’t surprise me if the letter to the Thais a few days ago by the 2 diver doctors who were so important in the cave rescue of the soccer kids had substantial influence on the release decision.

  23. Psyclaw @ #728 Monday, February 11th, 2019 – 8:41 pm

    It wouldn’t surprise me if the letter to the Thais a few days ago by the 2 diver doctors who were so important in the cave rescue of the soccer kids had substantial influence on the release decision.

    I’d agree with that.

    But, the info atm is the Bahrani’s dropped the extradition request. So, there is more to this than has been revealed.

  24. “It wouldn’t surprise me if the letter to the Thais a few days ago by the 2 diver doctors who were so important in the cave rescue of the soccer kids had substantial influence on the release decision.”

    I’d say you are right about that.

  25. De Garis replied: “I respectfully decline to answer that question on the grounds it may incriminate me.”

    Can someone explain this,
    How can he incriminate himself as he can’t be the one who told himself of the raid.

    He has admitted he was the told the press

    So he can be only protecting the one who told him

  26. Bushfire Bill:

    [‘…now and again a genuine lurker comes forward to plead for sanity and some attempt at civility…’]

    Really! Have a think old chap. Was it not you who wrote: ‘Bag your head, Mavis’? Now you’re purporting to be the saviour of this site, a servant of civility, a champion of the fair go, the objective poster, never delving into the personal. Reference thereof is made to Burns:

    “O, wad some Power the giftie gie us
    To see oursels as others see us!
    It wad frae monie a blunder free us,
    An’ foolish notion.”

    By the way, I still think your comment supra was a hoot.

  27. GG

    I heard about the Labor flyer highlighting Nicole Flint’s ‘hand that signed the paper’ against Turnbull. Driving past Michael Sukkar’s electoral office today I was thinking a similar flyer on him would be excellent.

  28. B.S. Fairman @ #635 Monday, February 11th, 2019 – 6:51 pm

    That is great news on Hakeem. Finally something we can be happy about. (I had a bad day)

    I am sorry to hear your day has not been good, but yes, this is great news. I feared Hakeem would be there for months. What a miserable honeymoon for him and his wife.

    I still want to know if Dutton had anything to do with him being detained by the Thais.

  29. sprocket_ @ #650 Monday, February 11th, 2019 – 6:58 pm

    Craig Foster tweets…

    We understand that @prayutofficial Govt and court has ruled to release Hakeem. My thanks go to the wonderful people of Thailand for your support and to Thai Govt for upholding international law. My deepest gratitude. Also to everyone who stood for what’s right #Hakeemhome

    He would make a better Foreign Minister than the one we’ve got. She is useless at this stuff.

  30. De Garis smells a lot like that weasel Ashby and his ‘work’ with Brough and Co during Slippergate.

    It is good to see the Union via the court is applying some heat to the protected ones.

  31. KayJay @ #3063 Monday, February 11th, 2019 – 7:27 pm

    poroti @ #260 Monday, February 11th, 2019 – 7:14 pm

    FDotM , an excellent name for Timmeh!

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/feb/11/senator-jonty-smarmyfuque-and-the-lefts-plan-to-tax-the-rich-until-they-are-dead

    Poor ladies designer borzoi Faberge caught a chill.

    New knowledge for me today – who knew there was such a creature. In line with political talk the dog is facing left. ⏪

    ” rel=”nofollow”>

    Oooooh! Cousin Graspy the finance goblin from Graspcorp! Where have I heard that before?

    PS I knew a designer Borzoi once. It caught a Porsche and expired from the consequent ennui.

  32. don @ #653 Monday, February 11th, 2019 – 7:01 pm

    Dovey @ #564 Monday, February 11th, 2019 – 5:50 pm

    I continue to be surprised by the people on this forum that continue to respond to Rex, what a waste of time.
    People like Mavis and Cat that respond may not realise that their posts get ignored as well. I know that when I see a post where RD, nath etc are mentioned, I immediately scroll on, why waste my time on this back and forth.
    I am pretty sure that those users that have the block function turned on have Rex and nath as their very first blocked posters, it makes the day so much better. It would save us a lot more scrolling if people just ignored Rex, nath etc. Waste of space and time.

    Agree. Life is short, death is long, ignore the people with nothing to say of any value. Your life will be a happier one. At least I find it so.

    The word block has gone. That was useful. With that feature I could block replies as to nuisance commenters as well.

  33. Pedant, i can assure you that had Foster, the Australian Football Federation, Pascoe Vale Football Club and a range of international stars not initiated a ruckus, he would already be in Bahrain by now.

  34. Sceptic @ #730 Monday, February 11th, 2019 – 5:44 pm

    De Garis replied: “I respectfully decline to answer that question on the grounds it may incriminate me.”

    Can someone explain this,
    How can he incriminate himself as he can’t be the one who told himself of the raid.

    He has admitted he was the told the press

    So he can be only protecting the one who told him

    My read is that he got the information through not exactly legit means.

  35. Shellbell
    He was in the office that was lawfully told of the raid, difficult to see a crime there.
    Does the court have the power to look behind his self incrimination plea

    Otherwise it is a valid defense in all cases even when one is innocent or not involved.

    I understand the US grand jury system is hampered by this defense

  36. Mavis demonstrates what I meant by “ancient grudges”.

    Mavis, you’ve outed yourself. Thank you.

    For myself, I’d forgotten all about it.

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