Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

The second Newspoll for the year finds no continuation of the Coalition’s recent improving trend.

After a period of improving poll results for the Coalition, the latest Newspoll records a tiny shift on primary votes to Labor, but not another to alter their existing lead of 53-47 from a fortnight ago. Labor is up one point on the primary vote to 39%, after a three-point drop last time, while the Coalition is steady on 37%, retaining their two-point gain in the last poll. The Greens are steady on 9%, while One Nation is down a point to 5%, the lowest it’s been in a year. Scott Morrison’s personal ratings are improved, with approval up three to 43% and disapproval down two to 45%, and his lead as prime minister out from 43-36 to 44-35. Bill Shorten is down one on approval to 36% and up one on disapproval to 51%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1567.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,273 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. VP

    Its politically motivated advice. “Pull” factors is so much BS.

    The LNP have settled AS. In Australia. If “pull” factors would work it’s already happening b

  2. Also those of you going on about the “pure” impotent Greens are ignoring that Tim Storrer and Phelps to name two are definitely not Green.

  3. Late Riser,
    We provide health care for criminals in our prisons. How are Manus and Nauru different? (And who decides that these people are in fact criminals?)

    1. If they are our citizens, they are governed by the law of the land, even in jail. Or if not our citizens but still detained at Her Majesty’s Pleasure, they are on our soil and subject to our laws as relates to medical treatment, I am assuming.

    Not that the medical treatment prisoners get in jail is the best. It is simply adequate.

    If a minister can’t decide in 24 hours does the time become indefinite?

    2. What makes a decision taken within 24 hours possible in all cases? Maybe there are instances where further information is required to be able to make a decision. Also, I doubt that a Minister would take an indefinite amount of time to make a decision about a medical evacuation. Well, unless maybe if they were a Coalition Minister. 😉

    How long do you need to be on Manus or Nauru to qualify?

    Haven’t the cohort on Manus and Nauru been there about the same amount of time?

  5. If labor don’t take onboard the security assesment advice then it get leaked against them. Their position is understandable.

    But ASIO / AFP are making thewrong friends this close to an election.

    I hope there are a few long nights of long knives after this next election.

  6. Puffy
    “I do not support any changes to the Medivac bill that allows a subjective assessment such as ‘character’.”

    I agree. It is far too vague given the recent track record of ministers with such discretion. To the Reichspotato au pairs and for Vanstone maffia associates who donated money to the Liberal party were of good character, while Saudi women fleeing without a male relative in tow were turned away, presumably of bad character (unless the UberSpud has decided to enforce Wahabism in Australia?). Who honestly could trust a successor to Dutton to use this power wisely? The next bad choice is only a factional spill away.

    So pass the bill with doctors having the power. Lets face it, the nation’s doctors have a lot more credibility than the nation’s politicians.

  7. ..yes, but I’d bet that the first time the doctors’ panel knocked back an asylum seeker’s claim for medical attention, all of a sudden they’d all be Dutton’s puppets, Coalition appointees, etc etc.

    Also, legislation can’t be drafted on the basis of who the current Minister is.

  8. Socrates.

    Nah Labor buckled. Its the politician that’s going to make medical decisions not the doctors.

    Labor forgot why The Senate including Labor people voted for the Bill.

    Instead they let the vested interest of unaccountability of the security agencies win again.

    The LNP says National Security and Labor buckles.

  9. The problem with some of these comments which criticise labor being weak, and giving in ,will likely be embarrassed with the polling trend to show the public has stopped listening to the pro coalition media and libs/nats scare tactics , and Labor primary vote continue to increase

  10. Shorten will be hoping the Independents reject Labors ‘amendments’. If they accept them he’ll still have to debate Morrison.

  11. Tim Storer’s thoughts:


    Katharine Murphy
    Katharine Murphy
    @murpharoo
    Tim Storer
    @storertim
    on Labor’s three principles: “I will consider any amendments, but would be disappointed if the amendments do not pass the House in their current form”
    @AmyRemeikis
    #auspol

    At least he’s behaving like an adult.

  12. William, You might at least concede that this blog has becone basically a rolling shitfight between a few self-styled uber posters as to who is Top Dog around here (pathetic threats to
    block, shameless name-dropping, heckling, mobbing, virtue signalling, insult hurling and “We warn the Tsar” style big-noting being all part of the package) interspersed with the odd interesting comment on politics and polls (plus of course BK in the morning, without whose news digest the place would be insufferably inbred and would probably fall apart).

    The same very small clique of antsy posters cause 95% of the trouble here, popping into every disagreement (whether it concerns them or not) morphing these mild and often quite reasoned debates into adolescent, schoolyard brawls based on personal abuse, ancient grudges and endless bullying. Anyone who complains is jumped on mercilessly.

    Every single day it’s the same. It gets so stupid the ubers even argue with the parody account called “Wayne”, an occupation which is only half a step in utter pointlessness away from arguing with their own shadows.

    Every now and again a genuine lurker comes forward to plead for sanity and some attempt at civility, but they are universally ignored. What these lurkers are telling you is that seemingly every time they log on there’s some kind of personal slagging match in progress, at virtually any time of day.

    Personally speaking, I could count the posters who make valuable, reasoned or interesting contributions here on 10 fingers. The rest are attack dogs, hero worshippers, haters with grudges and party-aligned hacks who couldn’t care less what anyone thinks as long as they think the same as them. If thinking is not synchronous, the outsiders are pecked at until they are either forced to leave, or just decide to shut up for the sake of peace and quiet in the hope something worth reading might crop up. Again speaking personally, I don’t agree with all (or even most) of them but at least their posts are of a higher intellectual plane than “Yah, boo, sucks to you”.

    A lot of the good and talented posters with something original to say have gotten sick of the endless warring and brawling they have to gingerly pick their way through to find something of value, lest they become today’s target. And they’ve gone, most likely without regret, leaving the various gangs to slag each other off without hindrance. That’s OK at a kindergarten, but in a blog supposedly peopled with adult contributors, it’s pretty disappointing.

  14. Zoomster

    Dutton is the proof there needs to be accountability of the Minister. Not Ministerial discretion.

    The Senate Bill is the correct one as Labor voted for it for very good reasons.

    Labor ignoring the Medical part of Human rights because there might be “pull” factors.

    This of a Bill being presented to the House of Representatives by a Tory.
    Congratulations on being more right wing than a Tory

  17. This is David Crowe’s report on the Labor Amendments:

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-shadow-cabinet-signs-off-on-modified-refugee-bill-that-could-still-pass-parliament-20190211-p50x16.html

    He also demonstrates what a political thug Scott Morrison is:

    “This bill is unnecessary, it is superfluous, it adds nothing to border protection – it only takes away,” the Prime Minister told the National Press Club.

    “And therefore its passage in any form takes us backwards. You don’t need this bill to make sure Australia has control of its borders. We already do.

    “See, this is the problem with Bill Shorten on national security or borders or anything else. He thinks it’s something you trade on.

    “I’m not going to find some middle ground.

    Of course compromise is necessary, or else why have a parliament at all? The Prime Minister and his Cabinet are not omnipotent and all-knowing and all-seeing.

  19. south @ #601 Monday, February 11th, 2019 – 6:43 pm

    If labor don’t take onboard the security assesment advice then it get leaked against them. Their position is understandable.

    But ASIO / AFP are making thewrong friends this close to an election.

    I hope there are a few long nights of long knives after this next election.

    That was my thought also. The AFP needs a strong and robust Royal commission to remove political influence as it has shown favouritism to the Government in power many times over the years. Both the left and right side of politics has benefited, although the extreme right has bent it a lot further than in the past.

  22. Last night somebody put a link to a You Tuber called friendlyjordies. This is well worth looking at as the young guy puts forward an entertaining genuine left perspective on Australian politics, devoid of any identity politics. Very well informed like a sort of a goofy Australian Jonathon Pie. He has a number of clips up at the moment.

  27. Andrew Giles MP
    ‏
    Verified account

    @andrewjgiles
    58s59 seconds ago
    More Andrew Giles MP Retweeted AFP news agency
    Just wonderful to hear that Hakeem may be about to come home – deepest thanks to all who helped spread the word to #SaveHakeem especially the extraordinary @Craig_Foster

  29. I’m not a big fan of Craig Foster normally, but he has really led the line to get this young footballer out of Thailand. Kudos to him.

  30. While we’re doing twitter rumours, apparently several Coalition MPs have asked Tim Wilson to step down, but (i) Morrison is protecting him and (ii) Wilson is threatening to spill the beans – I’m surprised there are more to spill – on the Liberals if he’s punted.

    Hopefully it’s as true as the Hakeem one.

  33. sprocket_

    I watched the Credlin-Joyce interview (someone had to). Lots on Bradshaw and how we can send all that water down south but the Greens want Mildura and Shepparton wiped off the map and everyone to starve.

    Quite balanced, really.

  34. Andy Murray says:
    Monday, February 11, 2019 at 4:28 pm

    >Indeed. They transitioned away from using more of their own coal, and instead use more Polish and Danish coal.

    >The lesson is: it’s ridiculous to talk about any European country’s emissions in isolation, unless that country is Portugal.

    https://www.renewable-ei.org/en/activities/column/20180302.html

    A total of 4.8TWh of electricity was imported to Germany from the two countries.

    People like to hold up France as an example of how to go carbon neutral. They took 14.7TWh of electricity from Germany.

    (According to the article most of the France electricity going into Germany actually exits Germany into a third country. It just travels through the Germany grid to get where it is going)

  36. Clem, I also think Craig Foster has done a Trojan job – worthy of an AO or better.

    Sadly, I’ll believe Hakeem is free when he is onshore.

    And memo to permanent residents and/or refugees. You are safe here, don’t leave- we are giving you protection. Heard today that there is 15 Australian permanent residents in one form or another of detention in China – the world ain’t a safe place.

  37. poroti @ #503 Monday, February 11th, 2019 – 4:23 pm

    steve davis

    Safe like these Australians. From Amy’s blog.
    .
    ….., the Guardian has revealed that 17 Australian residents are believed to be under house arrest, in prison or detained in China’s secretive “re-education” centres in Xinjiang

    The 17 cases – 15 Australian permanent resident

    Why did these people go to China? Why did they not stay safe in Australia? Are they so foolish to think that being Australian confers some sort of magic armour on them? Dumb, just dumb.

    The same goes for the soccer player who went to Thailand, and is now in all kinds of trouble. Once you are out of trouble, and have Australian protection while resident here, for crying out loud don’t put yourself in harm’s way.

    Don’t go to Asia, how stupid can you be?

  39. zoomster says:
    Monday, February 11, 2019 at 7:20 pm

    sprocket_

    I watched the Credlin-Joyce interview (someone had to). Lots on Bradshaw and how we can send all that water down south but the Greens want Mildura and Shepparton wiped off the map and everyone to starve.

    Quite balanced, really.
    ____________________
    I suppose you have to balance out the billion dollar cost of northern storage and a pipeline vs the billion dollar cost of desalinization, either way it results in water more expensive than anything that could be grown with it I’d suspect.

  41. On the fall in One Nation’s primary vote: I wonder how much Clive Palmer’s campaign is reasonable for the fall of late. I know Clive has zero credibility with the vast majority of voters, but a small segment (2 or 3%) of population is probably responding quite well to some of his messages.

  42. Zoom

    If the Nats keep 2 seats in NSW according to Barnyard’s leaked internal polling, it has to be the end for the ‘gentleman farmer’ model. Here, the Shooters and Rooters Party is going to halve the Nats representation in NSW Parliament – lots to protest about.

  43. A Thai court has ruled that an extradition case against Melbourne-based refugee Hakeem al-Araibi be dropped, with the footballer expected to return to Australia tonight.

    The director-general of international affairs for the Thai Government confirmed to the ABC that the Attorney-General requested the extradition case to Bahrain be dropped.

  46. I wonder how all that ‘northern storage’ would have gone after being hit with the recent deluge , all ‘relocated’ to the coast ?

  48. Yes Sprocket, he should get an A.O. This is the sort of effort that really is worthy of an honour. Not like the usual suspects, (ex pollies and executives etc.)

  49. FWIW I don’t mind Shorten and Labor further fiddling with the medivac bill.

    Strategically, Bill has many runs on the board as to holding or folding. I can’t understand why so many posters are so quick to worry about or indeed condemn his ongoing “polishing” of the bill.

    Don’t forget, everything is down the gurgler for another 3 years if Labor don’t win the election ……. go back to square 1.

    Bill has to manage both the medivac issue (compassionately) AND the fact that the Coalies are desperately trying to wedge him on ASs generally, and make it THE election issue.

    He’s doing this astutely, step by step, day after day.

  50. Craig Foster tweets…

    We understand that @prayutofficial Govt and court has ruled to release Hakeem. My thanks go to the wonderful people of Thailand for your support and to Thai Govt for upholding international law. My deepest gratitude. Also to everyone who stood for what’s right #Hakeemhome

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