Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

The second Newspoll for the year finds no continuation of the Coalition’s recent improving trend.

After a period of improving poll results for the Coalition, the latest Newspoll records a tiny shift on primary votes to Labor, but not another to alter their existing lead of 53-47 from a fortnight ago. Labor is up one point on the primary vote to 39%, after a three-point drop last time, while the Coalition is steady on 37%, retaining their two-point gain in the last poll. The Greens are steady on 9%, while One Nation is down a point to 5%, the lowest it’s been in a year. Scott Morrison’s personal ratings are improved, with approval up three to 43% and disapproval down two to 45%, and his lead as prime minister out from 43-36 to 44-35. Bill Shorten is down one on approval to 36% and up one on disapproval to 51%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1567.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,273 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Many happy returns C@t.

    On the upcoming votes, I still think McGowan and Banks will side with the government. I’ll be very happy to be proven wrong

  2. Matt31 @ #548 Monday, February 11th, 2019 – 5:24 pm

    Bills passed in one house are often amended by another house; it happens! So no, the cross bench are in no position to demand anything. They can choose to work through any amendments Labor propose, or they can do as the Greens often do, just say our way or nothing, and get nothing. If they do the latter, it will confirm my suspicions that this actually has very little to do with medical transfers and more to do with finding ways to get people to Australia, many people behind this campaign are after all long and loud opponents of offshore processing and believe all people arriving here should be processed and settled here.

    As I’ve said all along, the best thing that can happen for those remaining on Manus and Nauru is a Labor government who will focus on getting them settled in other countries, including accepting New Zealand’s offer.

    It’s ABSURD for a party to pass a bill in the upper house .. then amend the bill in the lower house .. and try to pass the amended bill in the upper house where they first passed the bill.

    Is this the twilight zone …?

  3. ABC’s Fact Check shows how fucked the ABC has become.
    Its fact check :

    Fact check: Could Richard Di Natale and Bob Brown act as medical advisers on the transfer of refugees under proposed legislation?

    Comes up with

    Drawing a long bow

    When ,as both are unregistered ( and wouldn’t easily qualify for re-registration without extensive retraining ) the only fact check should be

    Outright Lie

  4. When will Tim Wilson stand down as chairman of his kangaroo court inquiry, or be sacked by Morrison?

    I am betting it will be during these two sitting weeks – maybe towards the end of next week if next Monday’s Essential Poll is bad and Morrison is starting to panic (more) about the subsequent Newspoll.

    “I am handing this over to Mr xxx so that I can spend more time in my electorate”

  5. On the surface, those look like sensible amendments to the Phelps bill, which maintain the integrity of offshore processing while adding more accountability to inisterial decisions.

  6. Mavis Smith @ #522 Monday, February 11th, 2019 – 4:45 pm

    Rex Douglas:

    [‘It’s reprehensible on Labors part.’]

    Oh, please stop it! The realpolitik of the matter is that FauxMo, Dutton have few if any scruples. In fact, I wouldn’t put it past the two amigos to devise a cunning plan to allow a boat or two to slip through the net. I reiterate: the Tories can’t be trusted on any level.

    Note that Rex Douglas doesn’t say that the behaviour of Morrison and Dutton, in trying to wedge Labor away from their original instincts to support medical evacuations from Nauru and Manus, is ‘reprehensible’?

    Nope, nope, nope, it’s all Bill Shorten and Labor’s fault that this federal government are so bereft of ethics and morals that they will use the refugee hostages on Nauru and Manus as pawns in their tawdry political game.

    Jesus F.Christ, Rex Douglas! Just for bloody once can you actually be perceptive and thus tell the truth!

    And the truth is, that Bill Shorten and the Labor Party have more compassion for the refugees on Manus and Nauru in their little fingers, than Scott Morrison, Peter Dutton and the rest of the pusillanimous scurvy crew of Coalition MPs have in all their bodies and so-called ‘Christian’ souls combined!

    How hard would it be for you to admit, just once, the real politik of the situation as it is before us, and Labor, now? That is, that, in order to get some real compassion into the system dealing with refugees, we have to have a change of government first!?!

    To go postal on this blog against Labor and Bill Shorten because they are trying to walk a fine line through a minefield laid by a desperate, Ethics Free Zone of a government, is to put the cart well and truly before the horse and to just deny the reality of the situation.

    Why do you do it?

    Can’t you realise that your call for policy purity by Labor, after the Morrison government went as far as to leak a Confidential ASIO document in order to put the weights on Labor and to embarrass them and launch the mother of all scare campaigns in the run-up to the federal election if they ignored its conclusions, is no longer as realistic position to take as it was at the end of last year?

    At least acknowledge that much.

    Btw, if all you will do in response to my thoughts here is copy my post and add a dismissive, snarky one-liner at the end of it, don’t bother. Or maybe you should because it will say everything about you.

  7. Just to be clear.
    I do not support any changes to the Medivac bill that allows a subjective assessment such as ‘character’. If it is necessary to keep certain criminals out these crimes should be specified, such as murder, assault of minors, rape, armed robbery, for example. It should not include ‘crimes’ of spurious origin e.g. from the asylum seekers country. Also I would look with suspicion any convictions arising from incarceration in Australia’s detention centres, where AS could be set up by corrupt people to please the Australian government.

  8. One of the discussion points being lost re this debacle re the medivac bill is that the Coalition are the ones who are supposed to in government …..sposed to be governing.

    They are out of control all they have is blame others; quite sad really

  9. C@tmomma @ #559 Monday, February 11th, 2019 – 5:15 pm

    Mavis Smith @ #522 Monday, February 11th, 2019 – 4:45 pm

    Rex Douglas:

    [‘It’s reprehensible on Labors part.’]

    Oh, please stop it! The realpolitik of the matter is that FauxMo, Dutton have few if any scruples. In fact, I wouldn’t put it past the two amigos to devise a cunning plan to allow a boat or two to slip through the net. I reiterate: the Tories can’t be trusted on any level.

    Jesus F.Christ, Rex Douglas! Just for bloody once can you actually be perceptive and thus tell the truth!

    How hard would it be for you to admit, just once, the real politik of the situation as it is before us, and Labor, now? That is, that, in order to get some real compassion into the system dealing with refugees, we have to have a change of government first!?!

    To go postal on this blog against Labor and Bill Shorten because they are trying to walk a fine line through a minefield laid by a desperate, Ethics Free Zone of a government, is to put the cart well and truly before the horse and to just deny the reality of the situation.

    Why do you do it?

    Can’t you realise that your call for policy purity by Labor, after the Morrison government went as far as to leak a Confidential ASIO document in order to put the weights on Labor and to embarrass them and launch the mother of all scare campaigns in the run-up to the federal election if they ignored its conclusions, is no longer as realistic position to take as it was at the end of last year?

    At least acknowledge that much.

    Agree. Agree. Agree.

  10. I continue to be surprised by the people on this forum that continue to respond to Rex, what a waste of time.
    People like Mavis and Cat that respond may not realise that their posts get ignored as well. I know that when I see a post where RD, nath etc are mentioned, I immediately scroll on, why waste my time on this back and forth.
    I am pretty sure that those users that have the block function turned on have Rex and nath as their very first blocked posters, it makes the day so much better. It would save us a lot more scrolling if people just ignored Rex, nath etc. Waste of space and time.

  11. If anyone was wondering what kind of comment I had in mind when I said I would be making an effort to enforce higher standards, Dovey’s boring and self-indulgent effort above perfectly exemplifies what’s been going wrong here lately.

  12. Extremely sensible by Labor on the medivac bill. It will be passed if the independents stay loyal to it. All the scaremongering by the LNP are addressed by the changes. Rex is just a troll, he is angry that Shorten and Labor are so sensible and almost almost make the call. It is difficult to understand any other explanation although I am open to it

  13. It might be an idea to take stock of the long-forgotten comment moderation guidelines, albeit that it’s showing its age in places. Specifically:

    Talk about politics, not other commenters. This precludes any personal attack which fails to engage with the point the other person was making, however little value you personally might attach to that point.

  14. It is ironic that the LNP and Labor seem to dance around each trying to jockey for position, trading policies, kind of, when it seems politically convenient.
    Though in this case evidently just trying to follow on from Greens policies and the general public who long ago embraced a move to renewable energy despite government inaction or hostility.

    For the all prattling on about battlers as well, of course there is never anything in any of these policies for those who might be renters or otherwise marginalised low income households. Nothing about targets for emissions reductions either it seems yet.

    A de-carbonised economy is on the way, it’s just how long we will take to get there and how inclusive or equitable that will be

    Rooftop solar, batteries early winners in NSW election race
    https://reneweconomy.com.au/rooftop-solar-batteries-early-winners-in-nsw-election-race-57454/

    “The major political parties in NSW have answered calls to get serious about renewable energy and climate policy in the state, with both the incumbent Coalition government and opposition Labor Party unveiling plans over the weekend aimed at boosting solar and battery storage uptake.”

    “Ironically, the positions taken by the two parties are almost diametrically opposed to that taken in last year’s South Australia poll, when the then Labor government developed a policy of zero interest loans, and the then Liberal Opposition proposed rebates.”

  15. BTL comment in the Guardian, pointed out to me by my OH just now.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2019/feb/11/labor-coalition-election-morrison-shorten-politics-live#comment-125712411

    wedloik, aprox 9h ago summarises a piece in The Australian Financial Review.

    On the second working day of the year as most Australians eased into summer holidays, the federal government quietly extended one of its most controversial contracts, an extra $109 million to provide security for refugees on Manus Island in Papua New Guinea. The bump in value made the little-known Paladin Group one of the biggest government contractors in Australia, having won tenders worth $423 million for its 22 months of work on Manus. For a group with one entity registered to a beach shack on Kangaroo Island and another to a post box in Singapore, it’s an unlikely position.

  16. Sky News are reporting that the Greens and independants are unlikely to support any changes to the Phelps bill. If true, they will get nothing.

  17. Bert @ #551 Monday, February 11th, 2019 – 5:27 pm

    Many happy returns C@t.

    On the upcoming votes, I still think McGowan and Banks will side with the government. I’ll be very happy to be proven wrong

    Thank you, Bert. 🙂

    And, yes, I think the government knows it has the numbers. So, what price a Pyrrhic victory for Labor to support the original Bill?

  18. frednk @ #573 Monday, February 11th, 2019 – 6:10 pm

    Will the greens now refuse to support it; well just because that is what the greens do when Labor goes for a pragmatic solution.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-shadow-cabinet-signs-off-on-modified-refugee-bill-that-could-still-pass-parliament-20190211-p50x16.html

    You bet your bippy they will! I’ve just heard Nick McKim on the radio calling for a plague of locusts to descend upon Labor because they have budged an inch from the original Bill! 😆

  19. Quoll @ #569 Monday, February 11th, 2019 – 6:08 pm

    It is ironic that the LNP and Labor seem to dance around each trying to jockey for position, trading policies, kind of, when it seems politically convenient.
    Though in this case evidently just trying to follow on from Greens policies and the general public who long ago embraced a move to renewable energy despite government inaction or hostility.

    For the all prattling on about battlers as well, of course there is never anything in any of these policies for those who might be renters or otherwise marginalised low income households. Nothing about targets for emissions reductions either it seems yet.

    A de-carbonised economy is on the way, it’s just how long we will take to get there and how inclusive or equitable that will be

    Rooftop solar, batteries early winners in NSW election race
    https://reneweconomy.com.au/rooftop-solar-batteries-early-winners-in-nsw-election-race-57454/

    “The major political parties in NSW have answered calls to get serious about renewable energy and climate policy in the state, with both the incumbent Coalition government and opposition Labor Party unveiling plans over the weekend aimed at boosting solar and battery storage uptake.”

    “Ironically, the positions taken by the two parties are almost diametrically opposed to that taken in last year’s South Australia poll, when the then Labor government developed a policy of zero interest loans, and the then Liberal Opposition proposed rebates.”

    It should be mandatory for landlords to install solar panels on their rentals.

    Daniel Andrews wisely offers means-tested generous rebates for solar panel installations to home owners.

  20. The winnng goal from from the labor amendments is the changes apply to the current detainees only. 1000 poor barstards who have been stuck in hell for up to 6 years.

    No pull factor as it is a once only deal.

    If the cross bench does not agree then be it on them.

  21. On Labor’s possible amendments to the Storer/Phelps bill, I expect Labor to make a visible and strong public argument explaining their decisions. Emotions are running very strongly.

    Amendment #1:

    changes would ensure paedophiles, rapists and other criminals could be rejected

    We provide health care for criminals in our prisons. How are Manus and Nauru different? (And who decides that these people are in fact criminals?)

    Amendment #2:

    give the minister more time to respond to the recommendation of a medical panel on each transfer, increasing the timeframe from 24 hours

    If a minister can’t decide in 24 hours does the time become indefinite?

    Amendment #3:

    apply the medical transfer bill to the existing cohort of refugees on Manus Island and Nauru

    How long do you need to be on Manus or Nauru to qualify?

  22. Well; if the greens go down that path, Shorten has done it again. Vote Greens and you get nothing; vote Liberals you get gushing of teeth and misery.

  23. Politics is the art of the possible.

    It was possible for Labor to support Phelps Bill unamended as received from the Senate to provisions Labor itself agreed to.

    Instead Labor buckles yet again to the National Security scare.

    Thus making sure the measure they knew had the best chance of defeating the government gets nowhere.

    So much for considering the expert advice of doctors. So much for human rights.

    Instead Labor continues to give the LNP victories out of fear. Weak Labor weak.

  24. Oh and I forgot. The cry from Labor is we will do it after we are elected and it’s not practical now.

    I am glad the Democrats have stopped this craven behaviour. Labor can learn some lessons

  25. Guytaur
    Unlike the Greens, Labor want to win an election. Now the Greens have a problem; do they want show just how impotent they are by attacking Labor and getting nothing?

  26. The art of the possible – carbon pricing voted down by the greens, malaysia solution voted down by the greens……..both ‘were possible’

  27. FredNK

    Its Labor with the shortfall here not the Tory Independents or the Greens as it appears rich Wentworth voters can see the BS for what it is.

    BS over “pull” factors.

  28. Labor are trying to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

    All they had to do was stare down the LNP on their fake claims that the medivac Bill would jeopardize national security. They had already voted for it in the Senate; the Bill didn’t suddenly become bad for national security because of a blizzard of BS from a weak government that the voters aren’t listening to in any event.

    Instead they put forward these dumb as rocks principles like limiting the provisions to the current cohort of asylum seekers (as though future asylum seekers won’t have medical needs that need to be addressed). Complete political malpractice from Labor. They don’t seem to have the hunger to govern that is necessary.

  29. Murphy sums it up. Sounds sensible to me. Don’t say the Greens/indies will refuse to support the possibility of a solution, just because it’s not “their” solution.

    Katharine Murphy
    ‏@murpharoo
    57m57 minutes ago

    The three Labor principles: broadening ministerial discretion; relaxing the current assessment/decision timeframes; ensuring these rules only apply to the current cohort of people offshore, not to any new arrivals #auspol

  30. Cat

    Nope you are.

    Labor needs the Independents on side. Not just for this Bill but for the others like extending sitting days to focus on banks.

    Having the government defeated on the floor of the House or voting against Banking reform in the lead up to the election.

    Labor has snatched defeat from the jaws of victory

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