Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

The second Newspoll for the year finds no continuation of the Coalition’s recent improving trend.

After a period of improving poll results for the Coalition, the latest Newspoll records a tiny shift on primary votes to Labor, but not another to alter their existing lead of 53-47 from a fortnight ago. Labor is up one point on the primary vote to 39%, after a three-point drop last time, while the Coalition is steady on 37%, retaining their two-point gain in the last poll. The Greens are steady on 9%, while One Nation is down a point to 5%, the lowest it’s been in a year. Scott Morrison’s personal ratings are improved, with approval up three to 43% and disapproval down two to 45%, and his lead as prime minister out from 43-36 to 44-35. Bill Shorten is down one on approval to 36% and up one on disapproval to 51%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1567.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,273 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

  1. agree BB. It seems that many posters who used to add interesting observations and insider stories can’t be bothered scrolling through the drivel of the rat pack. although which posters make up the rat pack is subjective.

    perhaps we could have a poll on who readers have blocked.

    p.s. I don’t have PC access at the moment. Is there any blocker that works on Apple devices.

  2. Psyclaw @ #649 Monday, February 11th, 2019 – 7:28 pm

    FWIW I don’t mind Shorten and Labor further fiddling with the medivac bill.

    Strategically, Bill has many runs on the board as to holding or folding. I can’t understand why so many posters are so quick to worry about or indeed condemn his ongoing “polishing” of the bill.

    Don’t forget, everything is down the gurgler for another 3 years if Labor don’t win the election ……. go back to square 1.

    Bill has to manage both the medivac issue (compassionately) AND the fact that the Coalies are desperately trying to wedge him on ASs generally, and make it THE election issue.

    He’s doing this astutely, step by step, day after day.

    Finally, an intelligent post.

  3. Dovey @ #564 Monday, February 11th, 2019 – 5:50 pm

    I continue to be surprised by the people on this forum that continue to respond to Rex, what a waste of time.
    People like Mavis and Cat that respond may not realise that their posts get ignored as well. I know that when I see a post where RD, nath etc are mentioned, I immediately scroll on, why waste my time on this back and forth.
    I am pretty sure that those users that have the block function turned on have Rex and nath as their very first blocked posters, it makes the day so much better. It would save us a lot more scrolling if people just ignored Rex, nath etc. Waste of space and time.

    Agree. Life is short, death is long, ignore the people with nothing to say of any value. Your life will be a happier one. At least I find it so.

  4. I don’t understand how anyone can comment on the bill … at this point we do not know what Caucus has agreed to, and we also don’t know how other MPs will react.

    Everyone, including DiNatale and McKimm are responding to rumour

  5. poroti says:
    Monday, February 11, 2019 at 7:27 pm

    I wonder how all that ‘northern storage’ would have gone after being hit with the recent deluge , all ‘relocated’ to the coast ?
    ________________________
    I wonder how the Snowy River cloud seeding program is going? I haven’t bothered to look in a few years.
    Other ideas to generate rainfall would be to build a giant mountain at the headwaters of the Darling.
    Flooding the interior with an internal sea seems out of fashion these days. Perhaps the giant Pineapple has some ideas.

  6. Bryon @ #283 Monday, February 11th, 2019 – 7:30 pm

    agree BB. It seems that many posters who used to add interesting observations and insider stories can’t be bothered scrolling through the drivel of the rat pack. although which posters make up the rat pack is subjective.

    perhaps we could have a poll on who readers have blocked.

    p.s. I don’t have PC access at the moment. Is there any blocker that works on Apple devices.

    Not a good idea about who has blocked whom. Keep your powder dry and your temper moderate.

    I believe that you are out of luck with a blocker for Apple mobile devices.

    Good luck with your reading and posting. 🕊🕊

  7. Holden Hillbilly @ #643 Monday, February 11th, 2019 – 7:25 pm

    A Thai court has ruled that an extradition case against Melbourne-based refugee Hakeem al-Araibi be dropped, with the footballer expected to return to Australia tonight.

    The director-general of international affairs for the Thai Government confirmed to the ABC that the Attorney-General requested the extradition case to Bahrain be dropped.

    Hallelujah brothers and sisters!

    About time that common sense prevailed.

    But he was stupid to go to Thailand in the first place. What was he thinking?

  8. I seem to recall some (many) years ago there was a scheme to use nuclear explosions to create a ‘channel’ from the Gulf to the interior to (re)create an inland sea.
    Cleaning up all that radiation would have been a bit of an ask.

  9. More from Craig Foster..

    Most important thing now is Hakeem’s immediate wellbeing. Sure Embassy staff will take care of him, there’ll be tears there tonight, as there are in our household right now. Going to take some moments to thank as many of the incredible people involved as possible ✊ #SaveHakeem

  10. jenauthor @ #652 Monday, February 11th, 2019 – 7:32 pm

    I don’t understand how anyone can comment on the bill … at this point we do not know what Caucus has agreed to, and we also don’t know how other MPs will react.

    Everyone, including DiNatale and McKimm are responding to rumour

    Whatever happens, Morrison is still going to town on Shorten for Labor passing the bill/amendments in the senate. There’s no escaping that for Bill. Labor should just stand by their senate vote.

  11. Don – He had been told it was safe. Only a day or so before leaving did Bahrain issue an Interpol notice. Almost as if they have spies here…

  12. Bryon @ #651 Monday, February 11th, 2019 – 7:30 pm

    agree BB. It seems that many posters who used to add interesting observations and insider stories can’t be bothered scrolling through the drivel of the rat pack. although which posters make up the rat pack is subjective.

    perhaps we could have a poll on who readers have blocked.

    p.s. I don’t have PC access at the moment. Is there any blocker that works on Apple devices.

    Of course. This blog would be almost unusable without it, although I only access it on Apple laptops and a desktop Apple, not by iPhone. I understand from KJ that Android devices can be fitted out with the latest and greatest.

    KJ has all the answers, no doubt he will tell you how it works, it is the same for both Apple and PC devices, I followed KJ’s instructions and it works on my apple laptops and desktop.

  13. Someone mentioned earlier that the Independents would be very upset with Labor for proposing amendments to the medivac bill passed in the Senate.

    It’s useful to remember that most of these Independents are Right leaning and therefore are not natural Labor allies. Additionally, some like Phelps will be relying on cooperation from Labor (e.g. running dead) to beat Liberal candidates at the election.

  14. Don, earlier on, Dovey decided to let it be known that there are commenters here he or she doesn’t like, for which I ticked him or her off because I’ve decided not to put up with such childish rubbish for the time being. A few posts up, you repasted this comment and backed it up with an equally worthless observation about those same commentators. Which brought to mind the form you have in responding to C@tmomma’s most deeply pathetic temper tantrums with interjections like “onya C@t!”

  15. Great news!

    It sounds like Bahrain dropped their extradition request, so there was no reason to detain him further.

    I’d certainly like to see an investigation into what part Australia played in his original detention.

  16. zoomster says:
    Monday, February 11, 2019 at 7:43 pm

    nath

    Barnaby and Credlin are all for it.
    ___________________________
    Doesn’t surprise me. They both would’ve thrived and been much happier living in the 1930s


  17. guytaur says:
    Monday, February 11, 2019 at 6:32 pm

    FredNK

    Its Labor with the shortfall here not the Tory Independents or the Greens as it appears rich Wentworth voters can see the BS for what it is.

    BS over “pull” factors.

    You miss the point. Labor want to win an election. They have been wedged often enough to know what a wedge looks like. The Greens have once again been pure when it comes to Labor policy and shown again that purity leads to nothing. It’s not as if it is the first time.

  18. Bushfire Bill says:
    The same very small clique of antsy posters cause 95% of the trouble here, popping into every disagreement (whether it concerns them or not) morphing these mild and often quite reasoned debates into adolescent, schoolyard brawls based on personal abuse, ancient grudges and endless bullying. Anyone who complains is jumped on mercilessly.

    BB

    Haven’t you heard? Bemused was the one causing all the discord and nastiness around here. That’s why we got rid of him. Everything’s perfect now.

  19. Darn @ #675 Monday, February 11th, 2019 – 7:51 pm

    Bushfire Bill says:
    The same very small clique of antsy posters cause 95% of the trouble here, popping into every disagreement (whether it concerns them or not) morphing these mild and often quite reasoned debates into adolescent, schoolyard brawls based on personal abuse, ancient grudges and endless bullying. Anyone who complains is jumped on mercilessly.

    BB

    Haven’t you heard? Bemused was the one causing all the discord and nastiness around here. That’s why we got rid of him. Everything’s perfect now.

    Nature abhors a vacuum!

  20. William Bowe @ #671 Monday, February 11th, 2019 – 7:45 pm

    Don, earlier on, Dovey decided to let it be known that there are commenters here he or she doesn’t like, for which I ticked him or her off because I’ve decided not to put up with such childish rubbish for the time being. A few posts up, you repasted this comment and backed it up with an equally worthless observation about those same commentators. Which brought to mind the form you have in responding to C@tmomma’s most deeply pathetic temper tantrums with interjections like “onya C@t!”

    “Aye aye, sir” is the only possible response.

    Have a great day.

  21. don @ #659 Monday, February 11th, 2019 – 7:35 pm

    Holden Hillbilly @ #643 Monday, February 11th, 2019 – 7:25 pm

    A Thai court has ruled that an extradition case against Melbourne-based refugee Hakeem al-Araibi be dropped, with the footballer expected to return to Australia tonight.

    The director-general of international affairs for the Thai Government confirmed to the ABC that the Attorney-General requested the extradition case to Bahrain be dropped.

    Hallelujah brothers and sisters!

    About time that common sense prevailed.

    But he was stupid to go to Thailand in the first place. What was he thinking?

    Hi Don,

    According to SMH he did ‘check with the australian authorities before leaving
    ‘Araibi checking with Australian authorities before he left the country that he would face no legal risks by leaving the country that had granted him asylum.” ….. ‘Araibi was detained by Thai authorities on November 27 after Australian authorities controversially informed their Thai counterparts the refugee footballer was travelling to Thailand and was subject to an Interpol Red Notice.’
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/i-pay-taxes-i-play-football-i-love-australia-hakeem-al-araibi-speaks-20190128-p50u6l.html

  22. Greensborough Growler says:
    Monday, February 11, 2019 at 7:30 pm
    Psyclaw @ #649 Monday, February 11th, 2019 – 7:28 pm

    FWIW I don’t mind Shorten and Labor further fiddling with the medivac bill.

    Strategically, Bill has many runs on the board as to holding or folding. I can’t understand why so many posters are so quick to worry about or indeed condemn his ongoing “polishing” of the bill.

    Don’t forget, everything is down the gurgler for another 3 years if Labor don’t win the election ……. go back to square 1.

    Bill has to manage both the medivac issue (compassionately) AND the fact that the Coalies are desperately trying to wedge him on ASs generally, and make it THE election issue.

    He’s doing this astutely, step by step, day after day.

    Finally, an intelligent post.

    don

    Amen to that GG.

  23. This fellow needs to be careful when he goes in for surgery – or does he only see extreme RW doctors?

    The trouble with doctors
    NICK CATER
    If asylum selection is outsourced, plumbers would have more integrity than quacks, whose reputation for impartiality is eroded. (Oz headline)

  24. Thailand clearly decided that Australia is a more important friend than Bahrain – Australia is much bigger and interacts more – and the resentment was not worthwhile.

  25. Maybe it wasn’t Bahrain dropping the request.

    The Bahraini footballer Hakeem al-Araibi is set to return to Australia after Thai authorities withdrew an extradition case against him.
    The surprise decision on Monday ends more than 70 days of detention and international outcry over Bahrain’s attempts to return the 25-year-old dissident refugee.

    The Guardian has been told by Gulf democracy advocates and al-Araibi’s Thai lawyer that the Thai government has pulled the extradition case out of the courts.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/feb/11/thailand-to-free-bahraini-footballer-hakeem-al-araibi

  26. citizen

    When I saw that headline from Nick Cater I pondered what he thought about the outsourcing of so many aspects of Asylum Seeker policy to private security companies etc (so that the Governmnet can’t be directly balmed for their excesses)

  27. Rex I wouldn’t be too worried about Morrison wedging Shorten. Shorten has been two steps ahead of the Coalition for the past six years.

  28. FredNK

    The wedge only works because Labor is accepting Human Rights second place to politics

    Now the professional fair advice of Doctors is not good enough.

    Labor is doing badly when it’s to the right of a Tory of Wentworth

  29. Kristina Keneally

    Verified account

    @KKeneally
    Following Following @KKeneally
    More Kristina Keneally Retweeted Sky News Australia
    As I pointed out on Sky at the end of this sentence – it didn’t make it into this grab Sky ran – it’s not the Phelps Bill that is going to the parliament next week. It is a Government Bill amended by the Senate. The “Phelps Bill” is something different.

  30. atharine Murphy

    Verified account

    @murpharoo
    57s57 seconds ago
    More
    Caucus has signed off on the three principles. Two speakers, Pat Conroy and Andrew Giles asked questions, but accepted the logic of the amendments @AmyRemeikis #auspol

  31. I’ve been away having a very pleasant day visiting family on the Central Coast. Just catching up with the News.

    I see that Hakeem has been released. Fantastic.

    Meanwhile, “Boats!” Labor, just have a close think about it and do what you think is right. And call out Morriscum’s politicisation of the whole issue for what it is.

  32. Bushfire Bill @ 6.55pm

    Your comments on personal fights being pursued here are spot on. Most of them are boring in the extreme, and largely absurd. Unless you happen to know the identity of the person who sits behind a particular nom de guerre, and he or she knows your identity, the exchanges are as silly as successive lines of graffiti, each taking umbrage at the content of the previous one. And if fighters do know each others’ identities, they should do us all a favour and take their fights offline.

  33. Rocket Rocket

    (so that the Governmnet can’t be directly balmed for their excesses),

    A conclusion I reached from the time they started privatising electricity. A hot button issue for voters which by privatising magically became ‘commercial in confidence” , ‘those people over there’s fault’ an issue they can grandstand on ‘fixing it”. Oh and nice kick backs and post retirement jobs etc etc etc.

  34. So now the question is – will the crossbenchers agree to the changes Labor wants to make?

    Because if one of them balks, it is all over.

    I wouldn’t have thought the Greens would support Labor’s amendments.

  35. Just turned on ABC24 to see the Hakeem al-Araibi story. Good news, and I commend Craig Foster for running so hard on this and pushing against FIFA and the IOC.

    But then they started showing Morrison at the National Press Club today – it really only takes about one minute (or less) before you just have to turn the TV off because of his hectoring shouty demeanour.

  36. Shell bell,

    A question if I may ?

    I do not know If this would be your area of expertise but I was wondering …

    Does the ABCC have the power to force a witness to answer questions and if they refuse the witness may be charged ?

    Thanks in advance.

  37. “Bill has to manage both the medivac issue (compassionately) AND the fact that the Coalies are desperately trying to wedge him on ASs generally, and make it THE election issue.

    He’s doing this astutely, step by step, day after day.”

    Yup. 🙂

    Good to see the footballer out of the poo. Didn’t Bill send a letter to the Thais today?? 🙂

  38. Fess in simple terms giving the Minister extra power to overrule, extending the 24 hours review timeframe and restricting the changes to people already on Naru.

  39. For all the justified praise which Craig Foster and others are receiving regarding their commendably proactive role in support of the dismissal of Bahrain’s extradition request to Thailand, I suspect in this case the federal government also pulled out all the diplomatic stops, and most likely that was decisive. There was clearly a major bureaucratic foul up here which caused the problem, and the government wouldn’t have wanted to have to answer questions about it in Parliament. (They probably still will have to, but it will be less of a running sore once the prisoner has been freed.)

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