The Guardian reports the first result from Essential Research in three weeks has Labor’s two-party lead at 52-48, down from 53-47 last time. The changes on the primary vote are slight, with the Coalition up a point to 38% and Labor steady on 36% (CORRECTION: the Coalition is steady, and Labor down two). The Guardian report notes that Essential has changed the provider of the online panel from which its respondents are drawn from YourSource to Qualtrics, without changing the underlying methodology. Perhaps relatedly, the sample size is identified as 1652, where in the past it has been a little over 1000. The Guardian provides no further findings from attitudinal questions – we’ll see if the release of the main report later today provides anything on that front, along with the minor party primary votes.
UPDATE: Full report here. No change for the minor parties, with the Greens on 10% and One Nation on 7%. The poll was conducted between January 23 and January 31 – I’m not sure if this was a contingency for the long weekend, but in the past Essential’s field work dates have been Thursday to Sunday. Other findings:
• When presented with a number of explanations for a lack of gender parity in politics, the most favoured responses relate to the failures of political parties, and the least favoured relates to “experience and skills”. Gender quotas for parties have 46% support and 40% opposition, with age interestingly more determinative of attitudes here than gender.
• There are a number of questions on Australia Day, the most useful of which is a finding that 52% support a separate national day to recognise indigenous Australians, including 15% who want that day to replace Australia Day, with 40% opposed.
• Respondents were presented with various groups and asked who they felt they would prefer to see win the election. The most interesting findings are that the media was perceived as favouring the Coalition by 32% and 25%; that despite all the recent talk, pensioners were perceived to favour Labor by a margin of 42% to 28%; and that families with young children were perceived as favouring Labor by 50% to 21%.
UPDATE 2: It turns out that both the longer field work period and the larger sample were a one-off, to it will be back to Thursday to Sunday and samples of a bit over 1000 in future polls.
Andy Murray @ #2248 Friday, February 8th, 2019 – 7:51 am
thanks, thought so, I’ll pass thanks!
BiGD,
This is a very sad story about the misinformation and active proselytising of fake views to vulnerable parents of young children:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/it-will-take-off-like-a-wildfire-the-unique-dangers-of-the-washington-state-measles-outbreak/2019/02/06/cfd5088a-28fa-11e9-b011-d8500644dc98_story.html?utm_term=.501c1782b8a6
Don
You still can’t export power as you will be breaking the rule that you are not allowed to affect other customers. The utility being unwilling to come to the party would suggest they have to do more than a tap change on the LV transformer.
Didn’t they just copy what the Brits and the US do ?
Not defending them or the potato but our tories just seem to copy stuff – mainly from the UK & US.
Our Border ‘Farce’ copied from UK.
In NSW ‘Transport for London” is ‘Transport for Sydney” & ‘Transport for NSW” including the Brit Symbol for a train station – all the existing signage replaced by the NSW tories.
C@tmomma @ #2252 Friday, February 8th, 2019 – 4:01 am
This is why I dislike Libertarianism.
To me it’s such a selfish philosophy that wants the all benefits the Society has to give, but doesn’t want to fully commit to it.
I see it as a bit like many/most/all religions.
Morning all
Thank you Bk Phoenix and ors for latest
Dont recall who linked James OBrien talk back host in the UK, who does a great job of telling the brexiteers the harsh reality, but I have really enjoyed listening to so many segments now!
frednk @ #2253 Friday, February 8th, 2019 – 8:01 am
Maybe.
What I want to know is if they have gold plated the posts and wires, why do I still have the same pole and wire they put in 45 years ago?
Barney in Go Dau @ #2250 Friday, February 8th, 2019 – 7:55 am
The murdoch media shows its usual ‘true colours’ in the piece linked up thread, viz –
IMO it amounts to trivialising it all in defence of a tory, in election year when the tories are looking like getting a thrashing.
Its not far from a STFU to women either.
Plus the so called ‘article’ fails to link any of this with the ‘conduct’ of a number of other tories in relating to women.
Worst performing ? Hmmm. Doesn’t that mean making the least loot? So it just means NAB wasn’t as good at gouging,ripping off,over servicing and charging fees for no service as the other three Robber Banks.
dave @ #2254 Friday, February 8th, 2019 – 4:11 am
That would certainly explain how these two could have come up with the idea.
An original thought would seem beyond their capacity, making adoption rather than conception a more likely source.
Victoria @ #2256 Friday, February 8th, 2019 – 8:21 am
You’re welcome Vic – If only we had him here – applying the same blowtorch all our pollies, we would be far better off.
More here –
https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/james-obrien/
Plus on Youtube
dave
Thanks again! Apologies for my forgetfulness.
Most definitely. Especially with the current Muppets in our fed govt
Barney in Go Dau @ #2250 Friday, February 8th, 2019 – 7:55 am
Surely before you hug a person of the another gender it is polite to ask, particularly if you are a stranger and not one of that person’s friends, colleagues or family.
You don’t hug strangers. Simple.
https://www.theguardian.com/music/2019/feb/05/pet-shop-boys-donald-trump-michael-gove-give-stupidity-a-chance
Woke up to their new video “Give Stupidity a Chance”.. Classic!
Extract of a Twitter thread by Quaedvlieg, concerning Phelps.
Part of a turf war between the Liberal and National factions in Queensland?
From the ‘overhugging’ article:
Alpha Zero @ #2030 Friday, February 8th, 2019 – 12:03 am
Queensland has voted in labor for MOST of its history – since Labor was founded. It has the distinction of being the ONLY place where a Communist was elected – twice.
Since 1899 Qld has elected labor for 56 years. The exception was the long post war reign of Joh which was due to a gerrymander not to the way Qld voted and of course the impact of the DLP split.
Steve777 @ #2265 Friday, February 8th, 2019 – 4:46 am
That may be your cultural position, but there are cultures where it is a natural form of greeting.
don
‘What I want to know is if they have gold plated the posts and wires, why do I still have the same pole and wire they put in 45 years ago?’
Our biggest cause of outages is the power being turned off for works!
HaveAchat @ #2068 Friday, February 8th, 2019 – 7:42 am
Please ALPers, stop fanning this one. I really think it possible that the LNP are carving a safer spot for Dutton – or at least it is possible. I may well be wrong, but I would rather not take the risk.
lizzie @ #2272 Friday, February 8th, 2019 – 4:53 am
Plus raise his environmental credentials.
“That may be your cultural position, but there are cultures where it is a natural form of greeting.”
Fair enough. Different cultures and different people have different approaches to personal space. I’m not a hugger or toucher in any case but even if I were, in Australia, not hugging strangers would seem to be a sensible default.
Don’t hug people at work. That can go for kissing, exposing yourself, talking about sex or being lewd as well.
It is not that hard.
BiGD
😆 Not to mention the pedestrian Timmeh! saved from a cat attack.
Good morning punters
Thanks BK for the Dawn Patrol
Too humid to hug in Sydney. Just a good handshake suffices.
zoomster @ #2075 Friday, February 8th, 2019 – 7:53 am
One thing that is causing cost blow outs are outsourcing PLUS absurd OHS regulations. Now when they came to change my gold plated poles (twice) there were at times up to 10 vehicles (for one pole). This included paying for traffic control people. Now I live in a dead end street and beyond me are just 10 residences two of which have alternative private access. The risk of a traffic accident when changing a pole is considerably LESS that the daily risk of driving. No one bothered to do a two minute risk assessment to consider that a simple barrier and the apprentice keeping lookout would more than do the job while ensuring safety. Whatever the reason it seems that 10 or more vehicles was a massive overkill. I suspect separation of functions too -some guys digging, others concreting etc, probably added to the whole cost and brouhaha.
Please ALPers, stop fanning this one. I really think it possible that the LNP are carving a safer spot for Dutton – or at least it is possible. I may well be wrong, but I would rather not take the risk.
Inaccurate speculation. All Sitting Members of Parliament have been automatically re-endorsed by order of Scott Morrison. So Buchholz is safe. Unless Morrison taps him on the shoulder.
Victoria @ #2256 Friday, February 8th, 2019 – 8:21 am
O’Brien is almost the only person in the media these days that I’m aware of, who systemically and doggedly presses callers/ politicians to explain the reasons behind statements/ accusations.
He dismantles the tactics we see in our our so called MSM most days of projection, look over there, refusal to answer questions directly, truthfully or at all. He won’t let statements ‘go through to the keeper’ without challenge.
The original ABC “This Day Tonight” directed by Gerald Stone back in the 1970’s with reporters like Red Kerry, Paul Lynham and many others were of similar ilk however the current ABC wouldn’t go near such an approach UNLESS it was directed at Labor.
Surprisingly we occasionally see glimpses of the ‘old’ approach from the likes of Kochie with Frydenberg a couple of days ago or even more unlikely one of the Stefanovic’s or Lisa Wilkinson.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/conflict-of-interest-warning-as-mps-weigh-bid-to-ease-apvma-strain-20190201-p50v31.html
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P9jEuHbB0GQ
Let’s give STUPIDITY a chance!
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-07/fact-check-does-labor-have-twice-number-of-frontbench-women-/10696844
This is a must miss item – unless one enjoys those little maze puzzles
Where the start and end are a clever analog for the foo bird* dropping its load on unsuspecting missionaries (the unwary public).
Q: Have you put the kettle on yet Cynthia.
A: 🖕
Now back to the article in question.
With just a tad of clever manipulation 46.3 per cent vs 22.9 per cent –
whereby one subtracts the number first thought of – performs one a them divide into one thingies and takes into account the right handedness of the participants – the result is
Ta Da – varoomba — 🦆🦆🦆🦆 (ducks lined up nicely).
Read it and weep. The Labor party have work to do to catch up with wimmin MP’s. Come on Mr. W. Shorten get your drill sergeant back on the job – hup – two – three – I had good home but I left —- ☕
*
In ancient times there was a community known as the Goodnu’s. As all communities did in these times the Goodnu’s lived right on the river bank for trading, transportation and sustenance. Water was almighty and worshipped as a God. One day there was a tremendous hurricane far out in the ocean. It’s ferocity blew a large flock of “Foo” birds way off course sending them inland many hundreds of miles and in the vicinity of the Goodnu’s community. The Goodnu people had never seen a “Foo” bird and were quite curious as to it’s sudden and obviously evil presence. The “Foo” bird, as we all know, is a very ugly, evil-looking bird. This caused the Goodnu people to become very uneasy believing they did something wrong to God and that this bird should be avoided. One day a “Foo” bird flew overhead and screeched: “Foo, Foo” and shit on a Goodnu’s head. The man ran screaming into the river believing the Holy powers of the river would cleanse him of this evil turd and its consequences. As soon as the man washed this unholy turd from his ear canal he suddenly keeled over and died. The Goodnu’s were now convinced of the “Foo” bird’s evilness. The next day a woman was outside and heard: “Foo, Foo”. Before she could react the “Foo” bird dropped a bomb landing a syrupy turd across her face. Shocked and panicked she ran into the river furiously washing her face of this sloppy stew. The village watched in horror as this woman also died once cleansed of the runny turd. The very next day a village wiseman heard those famous words: “Foo, Foo”. He like others had witnessed the terrible deaths of two of his villages’ people in the last two days. He too was struck right in the forehead by the “Foo” birds accurately guided turd missile. His first reaction was confusion and he sprinted towards the river. However, he stopped short and thought of his obvious demise should he cleanse the turd wafer from his forehead. He did not cleanse the poo pile from his forehead and lived. So the wiseman went to the other people of the village, gathered them around and stated to them: “There is an obvious lesson here my good people. The moral of this story is: ‘If the Foo shits, wear it.'”.
Big day today – watering the pot plants. 😍
Beware the hug of doom.
https://www.michaelwest.com.au/the-blaming-and-scomos-hug-of-doom/
torchbearer @ #2276 Friday, February 8th, 2019 – 9:02 am
Granny’s advice – Keep your hands to yourself unless you know is ‘welcome’ and appropriate, eg partner spouse, GF/BF or similar.
Someone you barely know ? Someone just going about their job?
Thats being “Colourful” if you are a tory MP in trouble.
Thats murdoch papers being arseholes still.
Hug a pole instead. The pole won’t complain.
Late Riser:
Please put me down for 52:48. I think things will improve after/during the parliamentary session.
Dave
What continually surprises me is the absolute resistance by the brexiteers to understand the reality as opposed to their beliefs
lizzie @ #2282 Friday, February 8th, 2019 – 9:12 am
Is this the one Lizzie ❓
😇 ⏪That’s me – not Mr. ⁉⁉
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/hundreds-of-members-quit-nsw-greens-amid-internal-instability-20190204-p50vjs.html
Victoria @ #2291 Friday, February 8th, 2019 – 9:37 am
I think you’d find if you looked that they all have ‘Magic Happens’ stickers on the bumper bars of their cars. 😉
dave @ #2293 Friday, February 8th, 2019 – 9:37 am
Adani!
C@tmomma @ #2085 Friday, February 8th, 2019 – 8:10 am
Cat
Do you have to not pick EVERYTHING.
If Buckhotz is forced to quit then there is a vacancy. is that not easy to understand. Dutton’s cronies run the LNP so he is quickly endorsed. Morrison would have NO SAY. Remember in Qld there is only ONE party ie the Nats.
Shellbell @ #2509 Friday, February 8th, 2019 – 9:05 am
…unless one is a barrister or judge?
Interesting overhear at meeting between Simon Benson and Tony Abbott.
https://www.afr.com/brand/rear-window/what-tony-abbott-said-to-simon-benson-20190207-h1azpo
Victoria @ #2291 Friday, February 8th, 2019 – 9:37 am
Vic – guess resistance to change one’s views is seen in other places like trumpland which I dont understand or excuse.
But the changing reasons to leave/ versions from Farage, mogg, boris etc all need to be rammed done their throats repeatedly.
This is a good start –
this particular idea – to skewer the hypocrisy of Brexiteers on huge public billboards – has turned into a national campaign that is getting up the nose of some of the country’s most influential politicians.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/it-began-at-the-pub-the-campaign-to-shame-brexit-s-biggest-donkeys-20190201-p50uzq.html
https://www.schoolstrike4climate.com/
https://www.schoolstrike4climate.com/blog/students-kick-off-friday-school-strikes-at-shorten-s-office-ahead-of-global-climatestrike