Two new seat polls today, with due caution for the fact that seat polls tend not to perform very well:
• The Australian has a small-sample Newspoll from the Townsville-based seat of Herbert, which Labor won by the barest of margins in 2016 for the first time since the Hawke-Keating era. The reason this seat in particular has been targeted appears to relate to Clive Palmer’s expensive bid to re-establish his political career, to which Townsville is relevant given the failure of his nickel operation there. The poll has the 50-50 result from 2016 turning into a Labor lead of 51-49, which I’m guessing is based on respondent-allocated preferences, as the primary votes look a little more favourable for Labor than that. Labor’s Cathy O’Toole is on 32%, up from 30.5% in 2016; the Liberal National Party is on 32%, down from 35.5%; One Nation is on 9%, down from 13.5%; Katter’s Australian Party is on 9%, up from 6.9%; the Greens are on 7%, up from 6.3%; and Palmer’s United Australia Party is on 8%. The poll was conducted Thursday from a sample of 509.
• The other poll is a uComms/ReachTEL poll for the CFMMEU, which targets Greg Hunt’s Melbourne fringe seat of Flinders, which he holds on a post-redistribution margin of 7.1%. As related by the Herald Sun, the poll credits Labor with a lead of 51-49, with the Liberal primary vote at 36.8%, compared with 51.6% in 2016 – although this is probably complicated by an undecided element. Hunt’s primary vote is only 32.7% among women, compared with 41.2% among men. I hope to be able to obtain full results over the next few days. The poll finds 47.8% less likely to vote for Hunt due to his role in the move against Malcolm Turnbull, compared with 34.4% for no difference and just 17.8% for more likely. The poll was conducted Thursday from a sample of 627. The Herald Sun report also reveals that Julia Banks, the Liberal-turned-independent member for Chisholm, is considering running against Hunt.
Steve777
I was particularly disturbed to see one of those Neo Nazis at their small St.Kilda gathering holding a Red Ensign. This was the traditional Australian people’s flag until 1952 when the Blue Ensign became ‘official’ rather than just the flag on Commonwealth buildings.
I quite like the Red Ensign – usually now mainly used as a merchant navy flag. So it’s use by Neo Nazis upset me also.
Player One
I agree – March to get the country to move on. But May will likely be a bigger defeat and hopefully also bring down the NSW government
Just don’t want to be disappointed is all
Of course I want him to call an election for March so we can kick this mob out on 2 March
A few flags stuck in car windows up here along the Lakes Way, but all of them tourists as far as I can ascertain.
After today the most beautiful beaches in the country will be virtually empty, back in the hands of locals.
These things are relative of course. Even when the beaches are “full” there’s only a couple of hundred sunbakers crowding us out.
Hallelujah.
Good morning Late Riser
May I submit an ALP 54.5. Crap 45.5 guesstimate for the upcoming poll please.
The continuing spate of rats jumping overboard may hopefully take it’s toll on the small number of Australians interested in politics…
With thanks …
Do any of you think that selfish Morrison will call an election for March or do you think that it will be May as I think it will be
Greensborough Growler @ #85 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 6:36 am
Actually Abbot, along with Morrison and a dozen others, abstained from voting on the bill. So she’s wrong on that issue.
It doesn’t matter that Zali is essentially Abbott-lite, other than being progressive on “social issues”.
She’s not Abbott, conservatives can safely vote for her and she has genuine achievements behind her and a profile.
I’m calling it now, Abbott will lose the seat.
(Had to laugh when jughead was bailed up by a journo at his house yesterday and was asked for a response about Zali. “Bali?”; he replied).
Dan Gulberry @ #106 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 10:05 am
Regardless, it shows Abbott didn’t implement the will of his electorate on that particular matter.
Re Rocket @9:55.
I can recall Anzac Day when I was a kid – late 50s. The red and blue versions of the Australian flag seemed to have more or less equal prominence back then. Any official illustrations relating to WW1 or 2 were just as likely to show the Red Ensign, often with the Union Jack.
As for Australia Day back then, I barely remember it, apart from it coinciding with a family birthday. Australia Day was at the end of the school holidays, so no extra day off for kids; the News featured dull official occasions involving worthies and tricorn hats which no one attended. I don’t recall adults back then paying it much attention apart from enjoying a long weekend. This seemed to be the case right up until the leadup to the Bicentennial.
If i could post pictures here i would put up the magnificent flag design i saw on twitter yesterday. An aboriginal red earth motif on one side with the southern cross on the other side. Superb.
I saw one current Australian flag yesterday, my neighbor’s. I cringed each time i saw the Union Jack as i walked past. Oh for a politician of courage who will advance the republic AND a new flag.
As long as wet (or at least damp) independents keep knocking off sitting Liberals and Nats, that is a wonderful thing. Bonus points for terminating Tory blokes. Nothing like a kinder, gentler shitfight.
The best display of Australian spirit on Australia Day that I saw was a house that put up 2 flags on its flagpole. The Aussie flag AND the Indigenous Aussie flag. 🙂
Greensborough Growler @ #108 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 7:09 am
Point taken, however his 1 vote, for or against, wouldn’t have made any difference to the outcome.
Abbott’s stance on climate change and renewables is more of a relevant issue.
Henry
I don’t know if this will work, but I think this is what you were referring to:
https://twitter.com/collinsadam/status/1089116598227496960
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dx5D1FgU8AAcQ-T?format=jpg&name=900×900
yeah that’s it TPOF.
I inserted another link above which has a glossier version.
Love it.
TPOF @ #114 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 7:16 am
Yeah. Nah. I prefer the Indigenous flag myself.
“election must be held on a Saturday between 33 and 58 days after the writs have been issued” – https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elections_in_Australia
So for there an election to be on 2nd March, writs would have to be issued today.
I dont think it will be 9th March, that would screw NSW too much, they would struggle for resources due to overlaping campaigns (more than ALP), and wouldnt get much chance to focus on state issues.
Zali Steggall conspicuously didn’t refer to Abbott by name, but referred to ‘our current member’, the present representative’. And the devil shall not be named.
I think there’s a noticeable drop off in flag waving. I haven’t seen one on a car in inner Sydney, a front yard or flagpole. There were some on restaurants around Circular Quay, and they looked artificial and contrived, to me. I get the sense it is increasingly regarded as unacceptable, offensive, and not something with which to be publicly aligned.
Dan Gulberry @ #113 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 10:14 am
My point, which you have now taken was that Steggall was emphasising the importance respecting the electorate’s views on issues. Hence, her call on opposing labor economic reforms regarding negative gearing et al.
The interview also showed she was interested in a solution to the Climate Change Wars that have blighted our polity for over a decade. She seems to believe that is in accord with the wishes of her Electorate and that Abbott, once again is running a personal agenda out of kilter with the views of the people of Warringah.
Henry
says:
I saw one current Australian flag yesterday, my neighbor’s. I cringed each time i saw the Union Jack as i walked past. Oh for a politician of courage who will advance the republic AND a new flag.
_______________________________
Well you’re a sensitive little soul then. I like the idea of flying both flags, or alternatively, coming up with a design that incorporates both the Union Jack and the Indigenous flag, although I’ve yet to see any examples of this.
Well you’re a sensitive little soul then
______________________________________
Watch it! The flying white horse will accuse you of ad homineming.
Wait. You’re on her side.
As you were!
Observation reading yesterday’s fun and games.
Green supporters here seem get more excited and are more interested in Labor Party internal procedures than policy.
😆
“The best display of Australian spirit on Australia Day that I saw was a house that put up 2 flags on its flagpole. The Aussie flag AND the Indigenous Aussie flag.”
The Sydney Harbour Bridge has been showing both of these, with equal prominence. At least on this, an uptick for Gladys.
https://webcamsydney.com
(It normally displays the Aussie flag and the NSW flag, the latter being some meaningless piece of Imperial heraldry).
I don’t know the creator of this, but seems right.
“Green supporters here seem get more excited and are more interested in Labor Party internal procedures than policy.”
Spot on.
I mean, how did the Cons ever think they could bluff their way through on Climate Change anyway. Even for the locals who aren’t following the science or the global data, no amount of Murdoch, or Gina on a fruit box choking in pearls the size of KoolMints, is going to stop temperature records being broken or get rivers flowing again. Arrogance and political stupidity.
(grammar edit)
ItzaDream @ #117 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 6:21 am
The red necks are confused, Saturday wasn’t a public holiday, the Hottest 100 was yesterday and today is the public holiday. 😆
There’s a house I drive past all the time that has the Australian flag flying out the front. But it is there year-round not just on Australia Day.
Perhaps there is something to other PBers’ observations that it has now come to represent some kind of OTT hyper patriotism that most sensible people find off-putting and that’s why the usual cadre of cars with flags in the windows this year aren’t as prevalent.
Steve777 @ #124 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 10:31 am
And St Vincent’s Darlinghurst has been flying both national and indigenous flags for quite a while.
Barney:
I think most commenters just shrug at the outbreak of Greens squealing that crops up periodically.
Meh.
Barney in Go Dau @ #128 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 10:34 am
of course, silly moi.
Not a good choice for the US in 2020:
https://truthout.org/articles/joe-bidens-bipartisanship-promotes-republican-agenda/
Clive Palmer is not getting much bang for his bucks!
https://outline.com/sumUPH
Barney in Go Dau
says:
Monday, January 28, 2019 at 10:31 am
Observation reading yesterday’s fun and games.
Green supporters here seem get more excited and are more interested in Labor Party internal procedures than policy.
______________________________
Well it’s so much more interesting! And of course it’s often the ‘internal procedures’ that determine what the policies are, so of course that’s intriguing. Plus, branch stacking, paid for memberships, all that grubby stuff is just the type of corruption that is actually hurting your party, so the fact you want others to ‘look away’ says a lot about you.
https://thewest.com.au/politics/federal-politics/libs-look-to-woman-to-steady-ship-in-stirling-as-keenan-quits-ng-b881086263z
Libs look to woman to steady ship in Stirling as Keenan quits
Phoebe Wearne The West Australian
Monday, 28 January 2019 5:01AM
WA Liberals are scrambling to lock in potential replacements for senior Federal Government minister Michael Keenan after many were blindsided by his decision to vacate the crucial seat of Stirling.
But the Government could use the surprise vacancy as a way to bring a new woman into its ranks, amid criticism about a decade-low number of female MPs and candidates.
The northern suburbs electorate, held by a margin of 6.1 per cent, was already on Labor’s hit list after internal party polling showed late last year that candidate Melita Markey was in a strong position.
But the loss of incumbency just months out from a Federal election will make the seat more difficult for the coalition to retain.
https://thewest.com.au/politics/liberal/wa-police-probe-libs-after-porn-meme-complaints-ng-b881083369z
WA police probe Libs after porn meme complaints
Nick Butterly The West Australian
Monday, 28 January 2019 5:01AM
WA police are investigating claims senior figures in the WA Liberals distributed sickening pornographic memes to members as part of a long-running and bitter personal feud.
The West Australian understands that Ken Seymour has voluntarily stood aside from his role as the president of the Liberal Party’s Durack division, while former branch president Gordon Thomson faces possible expulsion from the party.
Both men are well known figures in the party. Mr Seymour was expected to run as a State MP at the next WA election.
Confessions @ #127 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 6:35 am
A house across the way from from my parents house has a flag pole out front.
They would fly a different flag most days.
It usually related to a special event in that country.
I don’t know how many flags they have, but it certainly made an interesting twist to flag flying. 🙂
I’m a strapping Collingwood 6 footer if you dont mind nath.
booleanbach says: Monday, January 28, 2019 at 10:38 am
Not a good choice for the US in 2020:
https://truthout.org/articles/joe-bidens-bipartisanship-promotes-republican-agenda/
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One of my faves, Kamala Harris, launches US presidency bid
Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) launched her 2020 campaign in Oakland and immediately showed why Trump’s advisers are so afraid of her.
Sen. Harris said:
When we have leaders who bully and attack a free press and undermine our democratic institutions, that’s not our America! When white supremacists March and murder in Charlottesville, or massacre innocent worshippers in a Pittsburgh synagogue, that’s not our America. When we have children in cages, crying for their mothers and fathers, don’t you dare call that border security that’s a human rights abuse! And that’s not our America when we have leaders who attack public schools and vilify public school teachers, that is not our America.
When bankers who crashed our economy get bonuses, but the workers who brought our country back can’t even get a raise, that’s not our America and when American families are barely living paycheck to paycheck, what is this administration’s response? Their response is to try and take health care away from millions of families their response is to give away $1 trillion to the biggest corporations in this country And their response is to blame immigrants as the source of all our problems.
And guys, let’s understand what’s happening here. People in power are trying to convince us that the villain in our American story is each other. But that is not our story. That is not who we are that is not our America!
https://www.politicususa.com/2019/01/27/kamala-harris-launches-her-campaign-and-immediately-terrifies-trump.html
Steve777
Nice webcam – almost feels like I’m there! Kirribilli House??
Maybe we can just have an “end of summer” long weekend with the Monday between January 27th and February 2nd being a holiday. The disconnect between the 26th and 28th this year maybe has defused some of the rhetoric (and slowed China’s GDP of flag production and sales)
In Victoria ‘Australia Day’ used to be the last Monday in January (I think until 1994?), which meant the Superbowl was live on TV in the morning. Now the Superbowl has been pushed back a week so it’s not on on today’s public holiday.
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/magazine/2019/02/alex-honnold-made-ultimate-climb-el-capitan-without-rope/?cmpid=org=ngp::mc=crm-email::src=ngp::cmp=editorial::add=sunstills_20190127::rid=17412952555
This guy climbed a 2.3km vertical rock, without ropes or safety gear.
Nuts
phoenixRed:
Did you catch this podcast with Rick Wilson?
https://crooked.com/podcast/bonkerpalooza-with-rick-wilson/
Barney:
I don’t think I’ve ever driven past that house at night time so don’t know whether they take the flag down at night or have it lit up after dark in order to comply with flag flying conventions.
Confessions @ #144 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 10:48 am
I did. Thanks for that, ‘fess.
Though I think that they could have said what they wanted to in a shorter amount of time. 🙂
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-confident-of-landing-five-liberal-seats-at-election-20190127-p50tyo.html
100%!
Confessions says: Monday, January 28, 2019 at 10:48 am
phoenixRed:
Did you catch this podcast with Rick Wilson?
https://crooked.com/podcast/bonkerpalooza-with-rick-wilson/
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Hi Confessions – sorry not yet – overcelebrating our marvellous Australia Day with family and ducking in every so often to read/post – have book marked it to read – when quiet and sober 🙂
An excellent start with Kevin Andrews!
“Green supporters here seem get more excited and are more interested in Labor Party internal procedures than policy.”
Probably need to correct that to purported Green supporters. It’s the sort of stuff that might interest “Liberals”, however, and anything they might have to say about anyone else’s internal procedures needs to be taken with a large grain of salt.
Late Riser @ #55 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 9:00 am
ALP 56 Scum 44. And that’s the lowest it will be until the election is called.