Newspoll and ReachTEL: 51-49 to Labor in Herbert and Flinders

Seat polls show Labor with their nose in front in one seat where they won by a whisker in 2016, and another where they haven’t won in since 1983.

Two new seat polls today, with due caution for the fact that seat polls tend not to perform very well:

• The Australian has a small-sample Newspoll from the Townsville-based seat of Herbert, which Labor won by the barest of margins in 2016 for the first time since the Hawke-Keating era. The reason this seat in particular has been targeted appears to relate to Clive Palmer’s expensive bid to re-establish his political career, to which Townsville is relevant given the failure of his nickel operation there. The poll has the 50-50 result from 2016 turning into a Labor lead of 51-49, which I’m guessing is based on respondent-allocated preferences, as the primary votes look a little more favourable for Labor than that. Labor’s Cathy O’Toole is on 32%, up from 30.5% in 2016; the Liberal National Party is on 32%, down from 35.5%; One Nation is on 9%, down from 13.5%; Katter’s Australian Party is on 9%, up from 6.9%; the Greens are on 7%, up from 6.3%; and Palmer’s United Australia Party is on 8%. The poll was conducted Thursday from a sample of 509.

• The other poll is a uComms/ReachTEL poll for the CFMMEU, which targets Greg Hunt’s Melbourne fringe seat of Flinders, which he holds on a post-redistribution margin of 7.1%. As related by the Herald Sun, the poll credits Labor with a lead of 51-49, with the Liberal primary vote at 36.8%, compared with 51.6% in 2016 – although this is probably complicated by an undecided element. Hunt’s primary vote is only 32.7% among women, compared with 41.2% among men. I hope to be able to obtain full results over the next few days. The poll finds 47.8% less likely to vote for Hunt due to his role in the move against Malcolm Turnbull, compared with 34.4% for no difference and just 17.8% for more likely. The poll was conducted Thursday from a sample of 627. The Herald Sun report also reveals that Julia Banks, the Liberal-turned-independent member for Chisholm, is considering running against Hunt.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

924 comments on “Newspoll and ReachTEL: 51-49 to Labor in Herbert and Flinders”

Comments Page 2 of 19
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  1. C@tmomma @ #42 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 7:44 am

    lizzie @ #7 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 7:05 am

    simon holmes à court
    ‏@simonahac
    33m33 minutes ago

    saying that “closing a coal power station won’t reduce global temperatures by 0.1 degree” is like telling a morbidly obese person that “skipping that donut won’t reduce your weight by 1kg”.

    The point needs to be made wrt saving the planet that, ‘From little things, big things grow’.

    And maybe its not the one donut, but that one dozen you ate today, and the day before, and…

  3. Not being overly familiar with the protocol, is it possible that ScoMo has already visited the GG and only needs to announce it?

  5. Early morning full update as I have some “errands to run”. I’ll be back later to continue the harvest.
    Reminders: (1) You can change your mind. (2) Still 7 days to go.

    PB Newspoll-Poll 2019-02-03
    PB mean: ALP 54.3 to 45.8 LNP
    PB median: ALP 54.0 to 46.0 LNP
    No. Of PB Respondents: 30

    ALP / LNP
    54 / 46 Al Pal
    54 / 46 BK
    55 / 45 booleanbach
    54 / 46 C@tmomma
    53 / 47 Confessions
    55 / 45 Dave from Wagga
    55 / 45 Dog’s Breakfast
    55 / 45 Fozzie Logic
    53.5 / 46.5 Frednk *permanent
    57 / 43 Gecko
    52 / 48 grimace
    55 / 45 Harry “Snapper” Organs
    52 / 48 It’s Time
    54 / 46 jenauthor’s head
    55 / 45 jenauthor’s heart
    54 / 46 klasib
    54 / 46 Late Riser
    53 / 47 Mavis Smith
    55 / 45 pica
    55 / 45 Player One
    55 / 45 poroti
    55 / 45 Puffytmd
    54 / 46 Rex Douglas
    53 / 47 Rossmore
    53 / 47 SilentMajority
    54 / 46 steve davis
    54 / 46 The Silver Bodgie
    54 / 46 Tricot
    55 / 45 Upnorth

  6. If that Steggall interview is anything to go by, Abbott has one heck of a fight coming. Morrison should announce the election asap to deny her more time to make her case and to head off the emergence of other credible female candidates for previously safe Liberal seats.

    Hanging on will only make the situation worse for the Libs.

  7. sprocket_ @ #27 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 8:01 am

    From today’s SmearStralian. SE Queensland is a long way from Yarralumla – Scotty is hanging on till May (or November?). Plus this article has a roundup of the growing congaline of Liberals denying they are quitting the sinking ship..

    “Former deputy prime minister John Anderson has urged ­Coalition MPs thinking about ­retirement to consider the impact of their decisions on the nation’s future, amid growing pressure on Scott Morrison to stem a pre-election exodus.

    The former Nationals leader ­issued the warning to wavering government MPs as the Prime Minister prepared for a three-day campaign blitz across southeast Queensland to sandbag seven ­at-risk seats, including that of Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton.

    The government is bracing for further retirement announcements, including the hotly speculated departures of Julie Bishop and Craig Laundy, following the retirement notices of frontbenchers Nigel Scullion, Kelly O’Dwyer and ­Michael Keenan.‘

    ……..

    The Prime Minister will head to Brisbane tonight to announce new infrastructure spending and to campaign with threatened ­colleagues. In a sign of the electoral difficulties facing the government in the state, Mr Morrison is expected to campaign alongside Mr Dutton in his seat of Dickson, which is being targeted heavily by Labor and left-wing activist group GetUp.

    He is also expected to spend time in the seats of Petrie, Forde, Bonner, Ryan, Wright and ­Brisbane — all of which would fall to Labor under current polling.

    The Opposition Leader will begin his week in Victoria, where the Coalition faces a rout, and is due to ­announce $200 million today towards improving the health of urban rivers.“

    https://outline.com/fBsvea

    So the Greedy Arseholes And Spivs Party switches from carpetbagging to sandbagging. Too late! too late! she cried. The third rate sales team can’t cover up the cracks that show the GRASPers for what they really are. Whether March, May or November, The GRASPers will be reduced to getting the votes of the 33% of our polity who don’t give a stuff about anyone but themselves and their immediate family – just like the GestaPotato.

  8. Tom – I reckon there is a journalist or two who’ve been staking out Morrion’s movements (not the toilet kind) ever since he took office.

    Unless it happened during the Oz day ceremonies in Canberra on Saturday – we’d likely know about it.

  9. Tom

    It would be bad protocol. The GG would not allow such connivance with a PM, who barely has a majority in the house. It would be like signing an undated instrument, or a backdated one.

    Cossie is not going to trash his reputation built over a lifetime of service for a Scotty sneaky stunt.

    The agreement by the GG for an election triggers a raft of formalities, including issuing of writs by the Speaker, and messages to the State Governors to kick off the Senate elections.

  10. Thanks for that clip sprocket. If nothing else Zali Steggall sounds very genuine, and warm. Keen to emphasise that the electorate is conservative economically and financially, but socially progressive. I would’ve preferred if she’d said she favoured a carbon price, but she is Liberal-lite after all.

  12. Local Waterways. Great for cycling along too. It’s fantastic to see some of the work Melbourne water have done to rehabilitate some of these already from the saddle.

  13. …He is also expected to spend time in the seats of Petrie, Forde, Bonner, Ryan, Wright and ­Brisbane — all of which would fall to Labor under current polling…

    Lazy journalist, or do they actually think this. Brisbane on 6.0% sure, given inner city. But is Wright really within the frame of a 9.6% swing??

  14. sprocket_

    I was just thinking during yesterday’s ‘interbellum’ that the accidental uncoupling of January 26th and the holiday on the 28th had somewhat muted the normal right wing hysteria.

    Next year Sunday-Monday. Good.

  15. And Steggall has a large-ish social media following behind her.

    Acid oceans and dying rivers. We must act now!

    Manly has a history of strong independants who’ve protected and enhanced our extraordinary environment.

    Go Zali go!

    Rob Hirst
    Balgowlah #warringah #warringahvotes #buildthetribe

    https://www.instagram.com/p/BtIpelqH7VC/

  16. Taxpayers will be thrilled to know their government has been giving grants to this Chinese multinational. Citic pays dividends offshore, perhaps to Bermuda, although it’s not disclosed in the latest financial statements.

    Citic has a bunch of coal joint ventures with Peabody, as well as a stake in the Portland aluminium smelter and commodities trading interests.

    It only has two directors in Australia, despite its billions in annual income. Last year, the group made a $69 million profit and actually showed a tax expense of $25.8 million but its cashflow statements don’t show any tax actually being paid in 2018 or 2017.

    https://www.michaelwest.com.au/companies/tax-dodgers/citic-resources-australia-pty-ltd-2019/

  18. Rocket Rocket:

    We were only saying yesterday that this year we haven’t seen one car with Australian flags draped over it or attached to the windows. Normally they’re everywhere, but not this year.

    I’d like to think people are put off by the culture wars played by Liberals around the day.

  19. PVO sees the new Wahini of Warringah as a credible representation of the battle between progressive and conservatives on social policies including climate change, homsexual reform and the role of women in Parliament.

    Looks like the moderates are trying to take back the party from outside.

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/columnists/peter-van-onselen/battle-for-warringah-pits-competing-liberal-forces-against-each-other/news-story/f7d8d07522ed57cd2fa15b405a7d254b

  20. Fess

    It has been amusing to hear some like Morrison running around like headless chooks going on about the issue. And then saying ‘Labor is trying to politicise the issue’

    We have also noticed far fewer of those (made in China) flags on cars this year.

  21. I think people have been put off by the far right and Nazi sympathizers draping themselves in Australian flags over the last one to two years, and “waving flag patriotism” has now got some significant negative connotations to it as a result.

    Confessions @ #67 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 9:14 am

    Rocket Rocket:

    We were only saying yesterday that this year we haven’t seen one car with Australian flags draped over it or attached to the windows. Normally they’re everywhere, but not this year.

    I’d like to think people are put off by the culture wars played by Liberals around the day.

  22. Sandi Logan
    ‏@SandiHLogan

    If you think you’re seeing a lot of government advertising on your TV, on radio & popping up online, you ain’t seen nothing: at least four major campaigns about to roll out which have nothing to do with anything other than making the government look like it’s doing stuff.

    I happened to see a Palmer advert yesterday. Total rubbish.

  23. Rocket Rocket @ #70 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 9:17 am

    Fess

    It has been amusing to hear some like Morrison running around like headless chooks going on about the issue. And then saying ‘Labor is trying to politicise the issue’

    The problem with Morrison’s approach is that he is trying to divide the community on an issue that the majority are largely unfazed by. Labor didn’t take the bait re the change of date or his little fantasy about Captain Cook. So, he just looks like an angry old fool, barking at the moon and talking about matters no one cares about that much.

  25. I only saw the one Australian flag, stuck into the hairband of an Asian-Australian nurse who was waiting for the patient who had overdosed at a music festival to be wheeled into the hospital. It looked cute and displayed the requisite amount of respect, support and irreverence. 🙂

  26. Spot on.

    @TheKouk
    13h13 hours ago
    From what I can see, Zali Steggall will not support the reforms of negative gearing, capital gains tax, imputed dividend refunds & she supports company tax cuts for big business
    A few inches to the left of Tony Abbott is still ultra conservative

  27. (Temporary delay on errands.) I agree. And wars of attrition can take a while. 🙂

    Greensborough Growler @ #67 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 8:16 am

    PVO sees the new Wahini of Warringah as a credible representation of the battle between progressive and conservatives on social policies including climate change, homsexual reform and the role of women in Parliament.

    Looks like the moderates are trying to take back the party from outside.

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/columnists/peter-van-onselen/battle-for-warringah-pits-competing-liberal-forces-against-each-other/news-story/f7d8d07522ed57cd2fa15b405a7d254b

  28. I don’t think people will be that enthusiastic about new roads being announced either. Everyone knows that they all eventually end up filling up with traffic from commuters having to live further and further out of the cities if they want to have a decent lifestyle for their family and to be able to afford a home.

  29. I think people have been put off by the far right and Nazi sympathizers draping themselves in Australian flags over the last one to two years, and “waving flag patriotism” has now got some significant negative connotations to it as a result.

    I don’t know about anyone else, but seeing pimped up utes with ginormous flags (yes plural) hanging off them makes me cringe. I don’t know why they aren’t out there this year, but I don’t miss seeing them.

  30. Often pvo’s articles can be accessed via his twitter posts even though you can’t get them via The Australian website. The advantage over outline is you get to read the comments. He is regarded by most of the commenters in The Australian as a dangerous communist! The hysteria in the comments is amusing if at times a bit disturbing.

  32. Thanks for your work LR. Put me down for 54/ 46. ( head,not heart.)
    Just got back from the Mackay region and talking to locals- everyone I spoke to, including my daughters outlaws, reckon Christensen is a goner. Apparently the local State LNP MP , Jason Costigan, has been working behind the lines on the numbers to replace him as the Federal member. It appears that he has held off a direct challenge, possibly thinking George will lose anyway and he will be a preselection shoe-in with his recognition factor as the local MP. Christensen would be a goner with a swing less than 1%.

  34. Media reform essential. Australia this means you:
    One important step to challenge this would be media reform. He says that the internet and corporate ownership of local media have “basically gutted the ability of local newspapers to cover local news, gutted the ability of larger newspapers to do consumer and investigative reporting”. Social media, a paradise for conspiracy theorists, is filling the gap.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jan/27/american-exceptionalism-has-to-die-david-neiwert-on-the-rise-of-the-far-right

  36. Steggall is going to fight this campaign on the issues of her choice.

    It won’t help her campaign were she to embrace policies antithetical to the desires of her electorate. One of her arguments today was that Abbott voted against the Homsexual marriage bill even though 75% of the Warringah electorate voted in favor in the Plebescite.

    If labor has a majority in the Parliament, then her opinions on economic matters may not be that important. However, if she aims to work with Labor regarding Climate change reform to implement real change then that can’t be a bad thing. People who work co-operatively on an important issue can usually work together on other more contentious issues.

    However, Steggall’s aim seems to be to represent the views of her electorate.

  40. Onebobsworth @ #80 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 8:34 am

    Thanks for your work LR. Put me down for 54/ 46. ( head,not heart.)
    Just got back from the Mackay region and talking to locals- everyone I spoke to, including my daughters outlaws, reckon Christensen is a goner. Apparently the local State LNP MP , Jason Costigan, has been working behind the lines on the numbers to replace him as the Federal member. It appears that he has held off a direct challenge, possibly thinking George will lose anyway and he will be a preselection shoe-in with his recognition factor as the local MP. Christensen would be a goner with a swing less than 1%.

    So am I right in thinking that Costigan is looking to the election after this one? (Got your 54/46. )

  41. In Sydney, I’ve seen a few flags on cars but not that many as usual. I “feel” (don’t “know”) that the Right have appropriated the flag for use as one of their virtue signals. Possibly many now feel uncomfortable displaying it outside of official use.

  43. “Sorry to disappoint you guys there will be no election till May”

    It’s been brought forward from November?

    But seriously, I agree. Scott wants to pick more fights over security, asylum seekers and culture war issues, plant some time bombs and splash lots of money around before going to the people.

  44. BK
    Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 7:58 am
    Comment #26

    Good morning Dawn Patrollers. I’m having another very bad day with Outline.

    I have been trying to sort out this problem.

    Item
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/immigration/un-to-continue-fight-against-australias-border-policies/news-story/8a48a28c051c16543d7c18b31492a007

    I have found that using Firefox with a tab for Outline.com essentially results in zip results.

    Checking Chrome now. Coffee all round. ☕☕☕

    Chrome – No go.

    Outline has gone dead in Firefox down periscope and reload Torpedoes Tubes (restart computer).
    Internet Explorer Yes https://outline.com/9DM6u5

    (b)
    Microsoft Edge Yes
    https://outline.com/9DM6u5

    See what you think. I have to water my pot plants (can’t my my lawn because it is now either really brown and struggling or giving up the ghost). 😇 😎

  48. frednk;
    I agree it can only get worse as new enemies of the LNP organize in seats Labor cant win (like Stegall), and others get more annoyed at LNP for making them wait.
    But that sort of self-sabotage seems to be what the LNP specialise in, am eager to see if there is a press conference tomorrow morning to call it.

  49. frednk @ #94 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 9:47 am

    Morrison is in for a World of pain if it isn’t March.

    Indeed. Part of me wants March, to put an end to this farce as soon as possible … but part of me wants May, to see them inflict as much damage on themselves as possible and make them unelectable for decades to come.

    Does that make me a bad person? 🙂

  50. With govt reopening, Congress can come back to work. I’m hoping the House Intel Committee will move into gear as well.

    The House, which spent weeks passing futile bills to reopen the government, will turn to legislation higher on the Democrats’ priority list, including a bill to raise pay for civilian federal employees. Leading Democrats also plan to reintroduce a marquee bill to close the pay gap between men and women that they have fought to enact for years.

    In the Senate, Republicans will try to push through a bipartisan Middle East policy bill that includes a disputed provision targeting the movement to boycott, divest from and sanction Israel. With the measure, Republicans will test for fractures in the resurgent Democratic Party, where Palestinian right activists have found new voices in House freshmen such as Rashida Tlaib of Michigan and Ilhan Omar of Minnesota.

    And in both chambers, lawmakers have teed up a high-impact lineup of hearings — effectively the first of the year. House Democrats will zero in on the cost to the military of President Trump’s election-eve troop deployments to the border and begin to consider their ambitious legislation to expand voting rights, make political giving more transparent and do away with partisan gerrymandering.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/27/us/politics/shutdown-congress-trump-wall.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

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