Two new seat polls today, with due caution for the fact that seat polls tend not to perform very well:
• The Australian has a small-sample Newspoll from the Townsville-based seat of Herbert, which Labor won by the barest of margins in 2016 for the first time since the Hawke-Keating era. The reason this seat in particular has been targeted appears to relate to Clive Palmer’s expensive bid to re-establish his political career, to which Townsville is relevant given the failure of his nickel operation there. The poll has the 50-50 result from 2016 turning into a Labor lead of 51-49, which I’m guessing is based on respondent-allocated preferences, as the primary votes look a little more favourable for Labor than that. Labor’s Cathy O’Toole is on 32%, up from 30.5% in 2016; the Liberal National Party is on 32%, down from 35.5%; One Nation is on 9%, down from 13.5%; Katter’s Australian Party is on 9%, up from 6.9%; the Greens are on 7%, up from 6.3%; and Palmer’s United Australia Party is on 8%. The poll was conducted Thursday from a sample of 509.
• The other poll is a uComms/ReachTEL poll for the CFMMEU, which targets Greg Hunt’s Melbourne fringe seat of Flinders, which he holds on a post-redistribution margin of 7.1%. As related by the Herald Sun, the poll credits Labor with a lead of 51-49, with the Liberal primary vote at 36.8%, compared with 51.6% in 2016 – although this is probably complicated by an undecided element. Hunt’s primary vote is only 32.7% among women, compared with 41.2% among men. I hope to be able to obtain full results over the next few days. The poll finds 47.8% less likely to vote for Hunt due to his role in the move against Malcolm Turnbull, compared with 34.4% for no difference and just 17.8% for more likely. The poll was conducted Thursday from a sample of 627. The Herald Sun report also reveals that Julia Banks, the Liberal-turned-independent member for Chisholm, is considering running against Hunt.
‘And of course it’s often the ‘internal procedures’ that determine what the policies are, so of course that’s intriguing. Plus, branch stacking, paid for memberships, all that grubby stuff is just the type of corruption that is actually hurting your party…’
Sorry, this is contradictory. If Labor’s policies are superior to others on offer (as they seem to be) and that’s a result of ‘internal procedures’, then ‘internal procedures’ seem to be working just fine.
Barnaby Joyce, Scott Morrison, Michael McCormack and Gladys Berejiklian need to tell these fish that they’ve chosen a very poor day for their “death and dying” protest!
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jan/28/menindee-fish-kill-another-mass-death-on-darling-river-worse-than-last-time
…I’ve seen a lot of articles in the last few days about the collapse of ‘internal procedures’ in the NSW Greens, which means that they’re still without their full quota of Upper House candidates with the NSW election looming. I haven’t linked to them, because frankly who cares what problems a minor party of no particular importance is facing…
zoomster @ #152 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 11:00 am
Someone should ask expelled Greens MP Jeremy Buckingham whether the over powering stench of all those dying fish the other day is better or worse than dealing with the Greens internal procedures.
…had an ALP campaign meeting yesterday – candidate reports that increasing numbers of people previously involved in the McGowan campaign are approaching him wanting to help our campaign.
“Nice webcam – almost feels like I’m there! Kirribilli House??”
It’s a great Webcam. I like to use it to check the weather. Sydney is not at its postcard best today. Overcast, 25 degrees (2 above the minimum) and, of course, as nearly always in Summer, humid.
The camera would be close to Kirribilli House but higher up – maybe at the top of one of the residential high rises East of the Bridge.
Steve777
says:
Monday, January 28, 2019 at 10:55 am
“Green supporters here seem get more excited and are more interested in Labor Party internal procedures than policy.”
Probably need to correct that to purported Green supporters. It’s the sort of stuff that might interest “Liberals”, however, and anything they might have to say about anyone else’s internal procedures needs to be taken with a large grain of salt.
______________________________________
I probably would describe my self as a loose supporter of the Greens, I am not a member and don’t support all their policies, but they are closer to what I do support than any other party. As for the internal Liberal machinations, well hasn’t that been entertaining down here in Victoria with all the stacking and mischievous stuff that Baastian and his cronies have been up to. If there were some Liberals on here I could tease them with some of that stuff, but seeing there’s only ALP stooges on here, I guess that’ll do.
nath
Well, of course you’re not a supporter of any party, you don’t vote.
LR…I think 56/44 would be a good place to start…
Question for our Lord and Master.
Is there any impact on the preferred PM polling once an election is announced?
Just thinking that once it becomes a live issue people may reflect more on their choice, rather than express a dislike of it changing during a Parliamentary term.
that’s an ALP branch stack in action!
zoomster
says:
Monday, January 28, 2019 at 11:06 am
nath
Well, of course you’re not a supporter of any party, you don’t vote.
_____________________________________
well I used to vote, but I haven’t since 2007, but I will this year, so look out!
KayJay
A Data Point: Opera with Outline in incognito mode still works for me. 🙂
(errands done)
Bennelong Lurker says:
Monday, January 28, 2019 at 9:00 am
Good, succinct interview by WB on RN this morning re various WA seats, plus a side serving on Warringah.
*************
Do you have a link to the podcast or a transcript?
Zoom
All you need to know about the NSW Greens is the 3 factions – namely the Trots, Teals and Treehuggers – are at each other’s throats. Is not pleasant.
sprocket_
says:
Monday, January 28, 2019 at 11:10 am
Zoom
All you need to know about the NSW Greens is the 3 factions – namely the Trots, Teals and Treehuggers – are at each other’s throats. Is not pleasant.
____________________________________
Go for it Sprocket, give us some details if you can. It’s all worthy of knowing and commenting upon. 🙂
nath,
You don’t support the Union Movement. So how you could characterise yourself as ANY sort of left of Centre supporter is beyond my comprehension, even taking into account your usual level of logical kama sutra!
nath
Sorry, I thought you said you stopped voting over the cuts to single parent pensions….which didn’t happen until 2012.
“that’s an ALP branch stack in action!”
No, that’s Morrison, Turnbull and Abbott.
EDIT: Actually Morrison, Dutton and Abbott. Turnbull’ left the building to go back to making money.
Player One @ #97 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 8:53 am
Yes, but some of us have always been bad. 😉
sprocket_ @ #164 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 11:10 am
I presume the Teals are what we call Tree Tories in Victoria.
KayJay @ #93 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 9:45 am
Thanks KJ, much appreciated.
https://outline.com/9DM6u5
Works with ctrl click and choosing open in an incognito window from the drop down menu on Mac and Chrome.
nath @ #167 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 11:11 am
YOU need to go back to today’s Dawn Patrol. It’s all there. Stop getting other people to do your work for you. You ain’t the boss of us!
grimace
says:
Monday, January 28, 2019 at 11:09 am
Bennelong Lurker says:
Monday, January 28, 2019 at 9:00 am
Good, succinct interview by WB on RN this morning re various WA seats, plus a side serving on Warringah.
*************
Do you have a link to the podcast or a transcript?
______________________________
Grimace is obviously too busy to find it himself and delegates BL to be his personal secretary on this occasion. BL, be grateful he is giving you this task. It keeps Grimace focused on running ALP business and you are helping the party.
Greensborough Growler @ #172 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 11:12 am
Or Zali Steggall. 🙂
nath @ #175 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 11:14 am
Practice what you preach, nath.
I thought I’d seen cliffs in the Blue Mountains. The Grose Valley, Kanangra Walls and so on.
But I hadn’t seen anything until I saw El Capitan close up.
You really don’t appreciate the meaning of the word “gargantuan” until you’ve needed to use powerful binoculars to spot climbers on their way up over a mile of sheer, vertical granite. And, when you finally spot them, they’re the size of ants, even under magnification.
El Capitan is just one of many similar sized monster cliffs at Yosemite, surely one of the most beautiful and spectacular places on Earth.
zoomster
says:
Monday, January 28, 2019 at 11:12 am
nath
Sorry, I thought you said you stopped voting over the cuts to single parent pensions….which didn’t happen until 2012.
_______________________________
It was 2007 or 2010 the last time I voted, not completely sure which. But certainly the cuts to the SPP led me to never vote for the ALP until they reversed those cuts. Both Macklin and Shorten have apologised for them, which is a start, but hopefully Shorten will actually reverse them. I’m looking forward to him saying something about it during the campaign.
Wayne @ #105 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 10:01 am
If you read up page you will see that Morrison is in QLD at the moment, so cannot easily make the trip to Yarralumla. So March is likely to be out.
Thanks to those who put two and two together, good work.
GG
The Teals are largely drawn from the yuppie and gay demographics. The Trots are the old red raggers- and the TreeHuggers are the off-grid hippies in Nimbin and surrounds.
Wayne @ #104 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 9:01 am
You’re not Wayne. Where’s the real Wayne?
C@tmomma @ #174 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 11:14 am
Steggall responded positively to the observation that she was a Liberal with heart. I doubt she’d support the Greens whacko economic policies.
nath @ #170 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 7:14 am
No, it’s good manners and protocol to post links when you comment on something in the media so others can easily review it in full.
I mean really how hard is it to find the Radio National page?
There have been a number of comments about the national flag and possible replacements. People seem to be unaware that Australian has two indigenous races and they each have their own flag.
there you go, found the WB interview in what 5 seconds.
LOL a plane just flew across the Sydney webcam at the same time a plane flew overhead here. So I got the audio version of the webcam as well as the visual version! 😀
That’s a very curious thing not to remember, especially for someone as apparently politically engaged as you seem to be.
Laocoon says:
Monday, January 28, 2019 at 9:06 am
…He is also expected to spend time in the seats of Petrie, Forde, Bonner, Ryan, Wright and Brisbane — all of which would fall to Labor under current polling…
Lazy journalist, or do they actually think this. Brisbane on 6.0% sure, given inner city. But is Wright really within the frame of a 9.6% swing??
****************
Where the heavy hitters *actually* campaign compared to what they say gives the game away. If ScoMo is spending time in Wright and other L/NP electorates rather than marginal ALP held electorates there is only one reason, and it isn’t good.
When the Cabinet visited WA they didn’t spend any time at all in any Labor held marginal.
That the entire L/NP entourage is spending time in a seat on a margin of 9.6%, in the circumstances, gives the game away that they are staring down the barrel of a catastrophe.
Bill Shorten doesn’t do too many Town Halls in safe Labor seats.
JimmyD @ #187 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 11:24 am
Sounds like he’s a Nihlist. Doesn’t vote but reserves the right to bitch continuously about important matters that he won’t get off his arse to address.
the 9th March is long weekend here in Victoria for Labour Day.
cant see an election being held on that weekend
Regarding Zali Steggall, she seems exactly the sort of person able to bump fool Abbott out of his seat. Just out of pure spite, I really hope she does it. However what happens after that?
My thought is that once the dust settles the lure of the bigger office and slightly larger pay packet of a shadow minister may prove too much to resist. She just seems too much like a Liberal.
Victoria @ #190 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 11:27 am
People can pre-vote.
From BK’s dawn patrol (thanks as always, BK!)
What does not seem to be mentioned in this and similar articles is that ColesWorths allow you to make withdrawals of cash from the front counter, without even buying anything, thus functioning as free withdrawal ATMs in any case.
While the use of cash may be diminishing, it is unlikely to go completely, I would think that the older generations would resist such a move.
I have heard of people being asked about their purchases of ‘frivolous’* items when applying for personal and home loans. If these are done with cash, there is no record on your CC.
*things like ‘uber eats’ whatever they are, restaurant meals, large purchases of alcohol and so on.
Greensborough Growler
says:
Sounds like he’s a Nihlist. Doesn’t vote but reserves the right to bitch continuously about important matters that he won’t get off his arse to address.
________________________________
Better to be a ‘Nihilist’ than a Catholic freak like you.
autocrat @ #191 Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 11:27 am
Agreed, and others have noted this possibility.
don (Block)
Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 11:13 am
Comment #171
Late Riser (Block)
Monday, January 28th, 2019 – 11:09 am
Comment #162
Regarding Outline.com I can usually manage to get it to work (Edge or Internet Explorer) – bit hit and miss mostly with Firefox. Pain in the butt. I can read directly The Australian items (plus many others) but outline is required to post a link for those without that ability.
I think I need to have a rest and consider the inside of my eyeballs.
Thanks gentlemen (and linesmen, ball kids etc.) 😴
Henry:
If you’re still around, here’s video of that guy free climbing El Capitan. Totally nuts!
“Victoria is home to some of the Coalition’s most serious wreckers who stop progress on these issues and our members want them out.”
Oops link:
http://digg.com/video/alex-honnold-el-capitan-video
GG
i know. but generally the public get damn well annoyed about this sort of stuff. If Morrison called an election to take place on a long weekend, it would not augur well for him and his team at all.
my own experience, is that people get hugely pissed off with their own loved ones who have their wedding on a long weekend. Imagine a federal election. it aint gonna fly