Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

The first Newspoll of the year records an improvement in the Coalition’s position after a particularly bad result in the final poll last year.

The Australian reports the first Newspoll of the year has Labor leading 53-47, compared with 55-45 in the final poll of last year. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up two to 37%, Labor is down three to 38%, the Greens are steady on 9% and One Nation are down one to 6%. Scott Morrison leads 43-36 on preferred prime minister, down from 44-36, and is down two on approval to 40% and up two on disapproval to 47%. Bill Shorten’s net rating is reported at minus 13%, compared with minus 15% in the last poll – we will have to wait for later to see his exact approval and disapproval ratings. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1634.

UPDATE: Shorten is up a point on approval to 37% and down one on disapproval to 50%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,983 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. This bit of the Cancer Council statement suggests they are afraid of a backlash amongst potential small donors and people who buy their sunscreen etc products.

    Cancer Council Australia expects to work constructively with the next Australian Government, irrespective of which party or parties take office following the 2019 federal election. The federal Opposition has demonstrated a strong commitment to invest in public health, including cancer control, should it form government.

  2. C@tmomma

    So who was doing all the trolling on PB today? I’ve hardly been here. Or shouldn’t I ask?

    ——

    I suppose, in the dominant bully culture terms of PB, I am a “troll” because i have criticised both major parties!! Though i did not use the term “same, same”.


  3. Steve777 says:
    Thursday, January 31, 2019 at 9:25 pm

    Re Meher @ 8:53 PM. Thank you.

    Re Dividend imputation, the company paying the dividend has paid tax on the income behind that dividend and someone who receives a dividend pays the balance if their marginal tax rate is higher than the company tax rate (you know that of course). If their marginal tax rate is lower, they pay no tax on the divided. That’s how Labor should present it.

    All too complicated. If you a cheque from the tax office and you paid no tax you are receiving a government income. Why should people with shares receive a government income while people who work don’t? This little scam is costing the budget 5.9 billion a year.

  4. Superannuation works

    I was fortunate in joining a Provident Fund upon commencing employment then being transitioned to an Accumulation Scheme in the early 1980’s

    Employer contributions (from my salary package which also included concessional interest rates on loans including a housing loan and other concessions factoring into your income) were 12%

    But you were able to increase those contributions by your choice (reducing the fortnightly wage credited to your bank account) and this I did raising my contribution to 15%

    The objective was always $1 Million by retirement – courtesy of diversification, compounding and time also acknowledging that there was risk, aka the Stock Exchange crash of 1987 and the GFC of 2008 (the 1974 Stock Exchange crash did not impact because of the then Provident Fund so defined benefit)

    The result has been what it has been

    In Accumulation Phase the Contributions Tax was 15%, so there was a tax incentive (from the upper marginal tax rate) but that was not the consideration – the consideration was retirement and income in retirement

    The trade off was also receiving a lesser wage being credited to my bank account fortnightly because I also had a focus on the future

    In accumulation phase, earnings in the Fund(s) were taxed at 15%

    I actually retired at 50, when I had approximately $670,000- accumulated – and did not access an Allocated Pension until turning 62 in 2008 when the Balance was at the “magical” $1 Million (because I could having the freehold ownership of an Investment property – the debt repaid because of equity and all rent reducing the loan to full repayment)

    I was also in a position to contribute in 2013 and 2014

    So (near) $1.6 Million provides a tax free income of $80,000- PA (and my wife is similarly placed).

    This has all been achieved from our own resource and abilities over our life times

    We have worked and managed to achieve this outcome – deliberately and with method since entering employment at 19 years of age, so a lifetime ago

    And neither my wife nor I would entertain so arranging our liquid assets to receive cash from government – because everything we have done and achieved has been to distance ourselves from government – and that is a source of pride to both of us

    As is the fact that we have not been the beneficiaries of inter generational wealth – everything we have achieved is from self, objectives and discipline

    The Franking Credit discussion is not a tax concession for retirees – it is an unsustainable rort at every level both to government and individuals

    To those critical of superannuation and the concessions which give the incentive to self fund your retirement, the system works and it works brilliantly

    But it takes attention, objective and sacrifice (because salary sacrifice is key)

    In retirement my wife and I continue to live in the manner we are accustomed to

    Why, in retirement, should we expect anything less

    Retirement is the start of the next phase of your life

    A phase which has always been planned for

    I drive a 10 year old Toyota with 160,000 kms on the clock not a Rolls Royce – because cars are a depreciating asset with a sole purpose being getting from A to B

    To put that superannuation should be dispensed with and that, in retirement, you are funded by government is an abject nonsense

    Remember also that the savings/assets you accrue across your working life are from after tax income

    I would never consider Negative Gearing because the risk is that someone else owns the asset – and you are accruing losses

    Such a scenario was never on my agenda

    You accrue wealth by making money – not losing it

    Bit like Storm Financial and all the other failed spruikers of “easy wealth”

    There is no such thing as “easy wealth”

    And what you accrue is what you accrue from your endeavours so asking someone else to invest your hard won wealth is also a nonsense

    It is too hard won to give decision to someone else

  5. swamprat @ #1901 Thursday, January 31st, 2019 – 9:53 pm

    C@tmomma

    So who was doing all the trolling on PB today? I’ve hardly been here. Or shouldn’t I ask?

    ——

    I suppose, in the dominant bully culture terms of PB, I am a “troll” because i have criticised both major parties!! Though i did not use the term “same, same”.

    You’re not a troll, you’re just Scottish-Australian. 😉

  6. All too complicated. If you a cheque from the tax office and you paid no tax you are receiving a government income. Why should people with shares receive a government income while people who work don’t? This little scam is costing the budget 5.9 billion a year

    And it perpetuates the trickle down lie that two independent legal entities don’t both get taxed on their income. Of course they both get taxed on their income, unless of course one is wealthy, then you need to find ways not to tax them, trickle down* would never have worked (*in this context trickle down is flood up and that part worked really well) if the wealthy paid their fair share.

    Pretty disappointing with just one jot of leadership from AOC the yanks have jumped from far to our right to far to our left.

    Look at Trump. Our whole lives the conservative / neocons types have been telling us that wealth equals merit, and comes from hard work and brains applied conscientiously. Ladies and gentlemen I produce President Trump, the pinnacle of US merit, an idiot, 4th rank conman, sex offender who is perhaps the laziest person in the USA.

    And with that, my case that we were sold a lie, rests.

  7. A bit more on the Cancer Council vulnerability to the appearance of political partisanship:

    They conduct the “World’s Biggest Morning Tea” fund raiser each May I think. They must raise considerable sums from ordinary people this way and to be seen as a partisan political organisation would be very damaging to this valuable source of income.

  8. abc730
    ‏Verified account @abc730
    2h2 hours ago

    7.30 can reveal that police have already tried to access someone’s My Health Record. Documents released under FOI show in 2016 Tasmanian police applied to access My Health data. #auspol #abc730 @L_Day

  9. I’m astounded that there are retirees out there arking up about having freebie gimme tax refunds they receive, having not paid one dollar of tax through the year, taken away from them. Have they not an ounce of shame?

    Compare and contrast with those school students who gathered to protest about national inertia on AGW and curbing our GHGEs. The difference between the generations couldn’t be more stark.

  10. WWP
    You would have though that Dividend imputation would have stopped people claiming companies should be taxed less; after all; a reduced tax would have reduced the imputation credits for Australian shareholders and increased the money remitted to the Cayman islands.

    It would seem the Cayman island crown can make a lot of noise.

    You would have thought people taking advantage of imputation credit would not push it so hard that it resulted in tax free income for very well off people with revenues having to be replaced by those working.

    The system been abused; I think if it can’t be reformed there is a solid argument for getting rid of Dividend Imputation.

    To put it another way; this is bullshit.

  11. WeWantPaul
    says:
    Thursday, January 31, 2019 at 9:40 pm
    LOL Hiding behind shields.
    And it is not how it works you don’t have Tim Wilson and Nath dancing around waving the cancer council flag in their dishonest partisan taxpayer funded trolling in the election campaign and then get to say your brand wasn’t involved. The Cancer Council Qld put their brand on the floor and Tim Wilson and nath pissed on it in partisan delight.
    __________________________________
    You are a nutter. You were calling them ‘tainted partison scum’. I support the ALP’s franking credit policy now that they have exempted pensioners. You are more foolish than a Fool.

  12. You are a nutter. You were calling them ‘tainted partison scum’. I support the ALP’s franking credit policy now that they have exempted pensioners. You are more foolish than a Fool.

    From you I’ll take that as a great compliment. you will note your post was just abuse without substance, which is about the highest level your trolling reaches in any event. Have a lovely night.

  13. swamprat says:
    Thursday, January 31, 2019 at 10:11 pm

    C@tmomma

    I am glad i am not a troll, but i am Scots-Irish Australian.

    I so want hard Brexit!!

    Glorious 2nd empire?
    Glorious revolution?
    or
    England back to 1707 borders.

  14. This complicated sounding “welfare for shareholders that do not pay tax” has all the hallmarks of another ALP inability to sell anything.

    Why is the ALP so bad at “selling” things?

    Given its new love for those mythical “free markets” you would think the ability to con people would have trickled down a bit.

    But seemingly not.

    For a novice neo-liberal party it is a bit sad.

  15. I’ve got it!

    Dividend Imputation Credit cash refunds are the government welfare you receive when you don’t want to be seen receiving government welfare! Because you’re already asset rich, at the very least!

  16. You would have though that Dividend imputation would have stopped people claiming companies should be taxed less; after all; a reduced tax would have reduced the imputation credits for Australian shareholders and increased the money remitted to the Cayman islands.

    i think there is two issues here, the mega rich are never satisfied with reduced taxes, they are always looking for the next tax cut, or even better the next taxpayer funded trough to slop out of. One of my children was always in the moment on the cusp of the next. She may have just been to Disneyland in Paris for the day but she’d be full of delight with ‘we should do x now’. The rich with their boons and advantages are even worse.

    There is also a large group of companies who don’t get to play the two entities (company and shareholder) only taxed once trickle down con. And they are not small weak companies.

  17. Almost

    C@tmomma says:
    Thursday, January 31, 2019 at 10:26 pm

    I’ve got it!

    Dividend Imputation Credit cash refunds are the government welfare you receive when you don’t want to be seen receiving government welfare! Because you’re already asset rich

    and don’t want to work or invest in anything other than Australian company shares.

  18. Frednk

    “England back to 1707 borders”

    ————

    Indeed. And Scotland back to 1707 borders and Ireland without foreign imposed internal borders.

    It is so simple 🙂

  19. Actually, Scotlands borders have not changed, except for the illegal and arbitrary redrawing of it’s sea boundaries by that rogue Blair.

    That will be sorted.


  20. swamprat says:
    Thursday, January 31, 2019 at 10:29 pm

    Frednk

    “England back to 1707 borders”

    ————

    Indeed. And Scotland back to 1707 borders and Ireland without foreign imposed internal borders.

    It is so simple

    The thing that struck me about ireland was the castle on each corner. Restore them all?

  21. I hope he loses his seat.

    New Health Minister Used Maiden Speech To Call For US-Style Healthcare

    Greg Hunt used his first speech to parliament to push the idea of US-style health insurance.
    ………….”The next expansion in private health coverage is, I believe, through employer incentives for the inclusion of health care in workplace arrangements”………
    https://www.buzzfeed.com/markdistefano/hunt-healthcare-us

  22. nath

    No. I was born in Australia. I have many convict ancestors back to 1792 and years following. But they intermarried with more recent free migrants.

    My maternal ancestors were Irish and my paternal were Scottish, Welsh. For some reason we always kept a real family understanding of being both celtic and Australian.

    Then i became very interested in the SNP and its objectives.

    I am passionate about self determination for all peoples.

  23. I was a member of the ALP in the 70s. I adored Whitlam, up until the Indonesian invasion of East Timor.

    I have always retained a social democratic political philosophy. But i am also a “nationalist” it termsof self determination.

    Australia is not served well by its two party conservative straight jacket, its very poor MSM, its political class more in love with the US than Australia.

  24. swamprat:

    [‘I have many convict ancestors back to 1792 and years following.’]

    A very brave admission; when I was young, one wouldn’t admit to same.

  25. swamprat

    ‘Why is the ALP so bad at “selling” things?’

    Three word slogans and playing on emotions are easy sells. Real policy is complex and complex is always difficult.

    It’s like that old cartoon – one arrow points to ‘simple but wrong’ and the other to ‘complex but right’ – and the queue for the first one is enormous.

    When the Liberals have tried something really complex, they haven’t been able to convince each other, let alone anyone else. That’s why Malcolm lost his job, after all.

  26. swamprat @ #1932 Thursday, January 31st, 2019 – 10:39 pm

    nath

    No. I was born in Australia. I have many convict ancestors back to 1792 and years following. But they intermarried with more recent free migrants.

    My maternal ancestors were Irish and my paternal were Scottish, Welsh. For some reason we always kept a real family understanding of being both celtic and Australian.

    Then i became very interested in the SNP and its objectives.

    I am passionate about self determination for all peoples.

    So, how many children do you have? How’s your partner? Do you own property? How much have you actually done help people self determine?

    Posting on PB does not count!

  27. The bog Irish – exampled by the Christian Right of the Labor Party- have a lot to answer for. But for they, Labor would be more miles ahead.

  28. When the Liberals have tried something really complex, they haven’t been able to convince each other, let alone anyone else. That’s why Malcolm lost his job, after all.

    What a wonderful explanation zoomster.

  29. Zoomster & swamprat

    ‘Why is the ALP so bad at “selling” things?’

    Three word slogans and playing on emotions are easy sells. Real policy is complex and complex is always difficult.

    Have a read of the “How to Vote” cards for all parties and have a look at the amount of ready material. The reading level and amount of information to digest increases the further left you head.

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