Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

The first Newspoll of the year records an improvement in the Coalition’s position after a particularly bad result in the final poll last year.

The Australian reports the first Newspoll of the year has Labor leading 53-47, compared with 55-45 in the final poll of last year. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up two to 37%, Labor is down three to 38%, the Greens are steady on 9% and One Nation are down one to 6%. Scott Morrison leads 43-36 on preferred prime minister, down from 44-36, and is down two on approval to 40% and up two on disapproval to 47%. Bill Shorten’s net rating is reported at minus 13%, compared with minus 15% in the last poll – we will have to wait for later to see his exact approval and disapproval ratings. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1634.

UPDATE: Shorten is up a point on approval to 37% and down one on disapproval to 50%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,983 thoughts on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Shellbell @ #1740 Thursday, January 31st, 2019 – 5:04 pm

    Still remember the crisis of being at the “tail end” of the pre-colonscopy purge while needing to supervise a child and her friend at the park.

    Clench a little, sweat a bit more and pray a lot.

    Nothing like the tail end of a examination where you realise the whig is leading into a question where the answer you’re about to give will contradict the first one you gave.

    (subpoenaed fresh faced first year grad answering questions about a crow bar assault, an admission in A&E, and whether the congenital heart lesion was caused by the blow)

  5. Part of the problem:

    Professor Richard Kingsford –
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/the-successive-government-failures-behind-the-fish-kills-20190129-p50ued.html

    In the aftermath of one our worst environmental catastrophes, the deafening silence from state and federal environment ministers underlines institutional environmental feebleness when the Australian community needs strong environmental leadership.

    The electorate needs to be convinced that politicians govern for all of us, rather than institutionalising the conflicts of interest involving insatiable industry sectors with strong lobbyists, often ex-politicians, supported by powerful natural resource government agencies.

  6. Dio and Itza
    A million thanks. Can feel my BP falling. I’ll cope.

    Interestingly, my mobile, tablet and scroll pad won’t recognise the affected fingers.


  7. rhwombat says:
    Thursday, January 31, 2019 at 5:13 pm

    Shellbell @ #14882 Thursday, January 31st, 2019 – 4:56 pm

    Why is the preparation for a colonscopy the worse tasting thing ever?

    Mate. The taste is not a problem. Good luck I hope the outcome is positive; in that you have no issues.

  8. Julia Banks:

    Ms Banks, a former lawyer and chief counsel at companies including George Weston Foods and GlaxoSmithKline, supports many of the Turnbull government’s tax policies but breaks with the Morrison government on climate change policy.

    She said she opposed Labor tax proposals including its changes to negative gearing on investment properties and its halt to cash refunds for shareholders who benefit from dividend imputation tax credits.
    :::
    “In relation to negative gearing, I oppose those changes.
    :::
    On preference deals ahead of the election, she said she wanted to issue an “open ticket” without advising voters to give their second preferences to one party or another, but she also said she would keep her options open to do the best for her campaign.

    Who to vote for in Flinders? Labor versus Banks. I would opt for Labor without hesitation.

  9. ‘…blaming “greedy landlords”

    On that, Napoleon’s got a point. At your peril, enter into a retail shop lease. Lessors generally are unforgiving if you default on your rent, your myriad outgoings. Just observe how many businesses go out of business in shopping centres, but rarely anchor tenants – eg, Coles, Woolworths, Target, and so on; for they get a more than generous discount on their floor space.

    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/sick-of-being-milked-for-money-how-napoleon-lost-his-beauty-empire-20190131-p50usk.html

  10. Flinders is going to be fascinating. The big question is can Banks get enough of the Liberal vote in Portsea and Sorrento to get above the Greens. Then it gets really interesting.

  11. This is brown-nosing of Olympic standard, although the definition of extraordinary is worth debating..

    Tom McIlroy
    ‏@TomMcIlroy
    7h7 hours ago

    Greg Hunt on Scott Morrison: “I think he has the potential to be the most extraordinary leader, not
    just of the federal Liberal Party, not just of the Liberal Party across Australia, but of any party since John Howard.” #auspol

  12. So the DJIA up over 400 Points with the Futures flat

    The ASX?

    Down

    What does the performance of this forward indicator tell us, along with the NAB Survey of business leaders?

    Australia is in recession

    In regards Franking Credits, as I have put before I was advised to purchase $200,000- of NAB Shares at $36- because they represented good buying AND, as a fully self funded retiree with no tax liability, there was the Franking Credit taking my return to where it would be (and far superior to the Term Deposit Rate which reflected a struggling economy)

    I declined

    The only thing I know about the time I received that advice was the NAB Share price

    Today?

    $200,000- remains on Term Deposit (and added to as with my wife)

    NAB Shares reflect a 30% loss of Capital (and Hayne due!)

    Given you have to qualify to receive Social Security Support why can you then qualify for a hand out (not a reimbursement) from government merely by manipulation of your liquid assets and not being liable to pay tax?

    That has always been the question

    Scenarios such as presented by a recent contributor should be seen for what they are – greed and self interest with a back hander agenda typical of that demographic

    More to the point is the moribund ASX, dragging an wealth and well being

    Again demonstrated today

  13. The myth of the political mandate:

    http://johnmenadue.com/ian-robinson-the-myth-of-the-mandate/

    If they win the next election, “Labor will have a mandate to push through tax changes,” claims Shadow Treasurer Chris Bowen (The Age 23/01 p. 1).

    This claim has no basis. The existence of an electoral ‘mandate’ for individual government policies is a myth.

    Despite being claimed by every Australian government back as far a we can remember, usually to bully senators into accepting Government (or in this case would-be Government) legislation, this alleged ‘mandate’ has no justification in reality.

  15. Kermit attempts to start a personality cult around our Master Pastor ? But seriously, Greg must be in deep do do to feel the need for 24k ‘lickspittling’ …………………………………………or he is taking the piss out of Morrison ? Hmmm which to pick.

  16. Pegasus @ #1758 Thursday, January 31st, 2019 – 5:26 pm

    The myth of the political mandate:

    http://johnmenadue.com/ian-robinson-the-myth-of-the-mandate/

    If they win the next election, “Labor will have a mandate to push through tax changes,” claims Shadow Treasurer Chris Bowen (The Age 23/01 p. 1).

    This claim has no basis. The existence of an electoral ‘mandate’ for individual government policies is a myth.

    Despite being claimed by every Australian government back as far a we can remember, usually to bully senators into accepting Government (or in this case would-be Government) legislation, this alleged ‘mandate’ has no justification in reality.

    Not unless the 9% party approves…

  17. lizzie @ #1758 Thursday, January 31st, 2019 – 1:24 pm

    This is brown-nosing of Olympic standard, although the definition of extraordinary is worth debating..

    Tom McIlroy
    ‏@TomMcIlroy
    7h7 hours ago

    Greg Hunt on Scott Morrison: “I think he has the potential to be the most extraordinary leader, not
    just of the federal Liberal Party, not just of the Liberal Party across Australia, but of any party since John Howard.” #auspol

    “extraordinary”

    Let’s break it down.

    extra – more

    ordinary – same as usual

    So, more of the same, as usual!

    Standard Liberal leader.

  18. BH @ #1701 Thursday, January 31st, 2019 – 4:32 pm

    Dio and Itza
    Thankyou altho just reading your posts gives me shivers. The thought of a GA is scarier for me so I had to give reasons why – 2 rather dramatic events years ago. Surgeon seemed OK and as we are new to the area I’ve relied on GP. It’s being done on 12th.

    I really need to steel my mind to a local. Is it like the twilight zone for a colonoscopy? If so, i’ll cope. Hate the thought of making a fool of myself.
    #medsonPB

    You’ll be fine.

    When I am in the dentist’s chair and the injection is going in, and the local is not working as well as it should (this is usual for me, obviously my jaw has different nerve organisation to other people, dentists can get quite stroppy when you tell them it didn’t work!) I dig my fingernails hard into my palms or my leg.

    The brain can only cope with so many signals (at that low level) and the pain is hardly noticeable.

    Experienced nurses giving you a jab in the arm for something or other put their fingernail against their thumb, let go and flick the skin, then put in the needle. You don’t feel a thing.

  19. lizzie @ #1758 Thursday, January 31st, 2019 – 5:24 pm

    This is brown-nosing of Olympic standard, although the definition of extraordinary is worth debating..

    Tom McIlroy
    ‏@TomMcIlroy
    7h7 hours ago

    Greg Hunt on Scott Morrison: “I think he has the potential to be the most extraordinary leader, not
    just of the federal Liberal Party, not just of the Liberal Party across Australia, but of any party since John Howard.” #auspol

    Greg the Lying Hunt sold his soul a long time ago. So saying this kind of thing is easy peasy, like falling off a log.

    I mean, who even remembers he was Peter Dutton’s numbers man? 😆

  20. Paul Rodin

    Labor’s big target strategy and where it might be vulnerable:

    https://insidestory.org.au/big-target-high-stakes/

    It seems unlikely that any Labor hardheads attribute the party’s substantial and persistent poll lead to the suite of policies announced by opposition frontbenchers over the past year or so. As they no doubt know, the main reason for Labor’s lead has been the disunity and ideological confusion within the Coalition that has left it increasingly incapable of governing itself, let alone the country. The test for Labor is yet to come: uncommitted voters, not renowned for taking a keen interest in policy announcements between elections, may be expected to tune in as we get closer to polling day.
    :::
    Labor’s potential vulnerability lies more in its plans for negative gearing and the capital gains tax. The reason is simple: they involve property, a matter of concern to a far greater proportion of the electorate than the esoterica of dividend imputation policy. To a considerable extent, Labor’s success in promoting these proposals will be determined by how voters see residential property. Is it primarily a place to live? Or is it primarily an investment? For those who own investment properties, it is clearly the latter, but even among those whose only residential property is the one they live in, it is often viewed not only as an “investment,” but also as an asset that should only ever appreciate in value.
    :::
    Apart from a scare campaign over Labor’s declared policies, the Coalition could also make mischief about changes not proposed. It isn’t hard to envisage the government claiming that an “anti-retiree” Labor government might lower the threshold above which retirees pay tax on returns on superannuation accounts (currently $1.6 million) and also seek to tighten the income test for access to the seniors health card. Labor would deny any such intentions, but so did the Coalition during the “Mediscare” campaign. The electoral potency of any accusation depends on the extent to which the accused can be seen to have form.

  21. Bert Thnks. I’ll be sparking on all 4s by the campaign start.

    Tom – all the best for the colonoscopy. A necessary evil sometiimes.

    Just watched Seniors bloke talking to Speers. Labor needs to talk to him and set him straight about the expense of franking credits.

  22. BH @ #1768 Thursday, January 31st, 2019 – 5:42 pm

    Bert Thnks. I’ll be sparking on all 4s by the campaign start.

    Tom – all the best for the colonoscopy. A necessary evil sometiimes.

    Just watched Seniors bloke talking to Speers. Labor needs to talk to him and set him straight about the expense of franking credits.

    Yes, interesting how Sky want to talk to someone who isn’t an expert on the policy, just an avatar for the squealing piggies, rather than someone who is.

  23. From same article re mandates:

    With no chance of a Senate majority, of course, Labor may be courting a lot of pain for uncertain gain, simply because none of the necessary legislation can be assured of a smooth passage through the upper house. Mindful of this fact, shadow treasurer Chris Bowen contended last weekend that, with Labor’s policies out there and tested in public debate up to election day, victory would bestow a clear mandate and should prompt a correspondingly cooperative attitude among senators.

    “Mandate, schmandate,” long-term political observers might respond. There is simply no precedent in living memory for a Senate opposition (including a Labor one) to wave through legislation it opposes simply because the new government claims a mandate. Indeed, the concept can be seen to have died (if it ever existed) with the destruction of the Whitlam government. The double dissolution is the prescribed constitutional remedy for governments frustrated by Senate obstruction.

  24. Socrates @ #1707 Thursday, January 31st, 2019 – 4:41 pm

    Second question, why give any respect to the “office of prime minister”? .

    Agreed on respect for the office of PM. It has to be earned, as does any respect anywhere, you don’t get it automatically.

    The PM is not the head of state. Constitutionally the PM is merely a go between from the GG to parliament. The office is an invention. It is no more deserving of respect than any MP

    Any constitutional lawyers here? I thought that the Prime Minister is not defined in the constitution ???

  26. don
    says:
    The PM is not the head of state. Constitutionally the PM is merely a go between from the GG to parliament. The office is an invention. It is no more deserving of respect than any MP
    Any constitutional lawyers here? I thought that the Prime Minister is not defined in the constitution ???
    ______________________________________
    that’s right, the PM is not, but he/she is more of a convention rather than invention 🙂

  28. ON THE Ms BANKS TILT AT FLINDERS

    Ms Banks, who owns a family holiday home in the Flinders, denied allegations that her decision to run in Flinders was an act of revenge against those who brought Malcolm Turnbull down. “This is about offering the people of Flinders choice. As an independent candidate the people of Flinders will have direct access to me and I will be able to have a direct influence, rather than being caught up in what is the paralysis of the major party machines.”Ms Banks defines herself as a “sensible centrist” who is socially progressive on climate change, refugees and live exports.
    Source: Jade Macmillan and Jane Norman. Julia Banks to challenge former colleague Greg Hunt for Flinders at next electionABC news Online 31 January 2019.

    Is this a politically intelligent way to prolong her political career?
    On paper it does not look –
    1. Ms Banks is giving away a 1-2 percent primary vote ‘somophore surge’ she may have receieved if she stayed with the Chisolm electorate;
    2. Ms Banks switches from being an incumbent defending a seat against novice challengers

    Chisolm

    to a candidate challenging for a seat against a high profile Minister

    Health

    incumbent;
    3. Ms Banks is standing as an independent in Coalition seat

    a tick from Antony Green

    but she is campaigning of “refugees, climate change and energy policy – national not local issues – and each from a perspective sympathetic to the arch enemy of habitual Liberal voters in a typically Liberal electorate

    the ALP and the Greeens

    ; not sure this will go over well in Flinders. .I dont see how this campaign platform is “focusing on the local community” as Ms Banks put it.
    4. Ms Banks goes from defending a seat on a 1.6% 2PP margin to 0 votes against a man with a 7.2 percent 2PP margin in Flinders after redistribution dropped it from 7.8%.

    What Ms Banks is banking on

    excuse the pun

    above anthing else are two essential ingredients.

    – One is the hope that the 7.1 percent swing average of the nine Liberal heartland seats lost to Labor in the recent Victorian State election is mirrrored in Flinders in 2019. This prospect is supported by the well published fact that Greg Hunt was instrumental in bringing on the demise of then Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull in August last year.

    – The other is standing as a woman candidate against an arche-type Liberal brand male incumbent in Flinders

    instead of standing against two women in Chisolm

    . Here she will have to share any anti Coalition backlash from the well published perception of a range of “womens issues” which dogged the ‘muppet show’ throughout the second half of 2018 and allegedly triggered her defection from the Liberal Party in the first place.

    Good luck Ms Banks. I think you are going to it- stranger things have happened in elections. Maybe the Victorian Premier could give her some campaigning tips like , i don’t know, shut up the minute you’ve spoken the words “Talcum Malcolm” ? Run dead “my dear girl” and win, win win ?

  29. lizzie @ #1708 Thursday, January 31st, 2019 – 4:42 pm

    Barney

    I’m sure you’ve heard of helicopter parents. And 4-wheel drives just to cart them a few hundred metres. 😉

    I walked a mile to school each way in bare feet on stony dirt roads, summer and winter. We had no car, and I had no bicycle. I thought nothing of it at the time, and in any case I am very grateful for it now.

    Unfortunately I can’t add the obligatory tag ‘through deep snow’ since it was in Brisbane!

  31. don
    says:
    Thursday, January 31, 2019 at 5:55 pm
    lizzie @ #1708 Thursday, January 31st, 2019 – 4:42 pm
    Barney
    I’m sure you’ve heard of helicopter parents. And 4-wheel drives just to cart them a few hundred metres.
    I walked a mile to school each way in bare feet on stony dirt roads, summer and winter. We had no car, and I had no bicycle. I thought nothing of it at the time, and in any case I am very grateful for it now.
    ________________________________
    Come on Don! A mile! it takes like 15 minutes 🙂

  33. Despite being claimed by every Australian government back as far a we can remember, usually to bully senators into accepting Government (or in this case would-be Government) legislation, this alleged ‘mandate’ has no justification in reality.

    ___________________________

    Menadue, as the head of PM&C for Gough would remember all too well the total disrespect for mandates shown by the losing party at the 1972 and 1974 elections.

  34. lizzie @ #1730 Thursday, January 31st, 2019 – 4:59 pm

    Shellbell

    I was told I could add lemon cordial or something. It wasn’t the taste, it was the sheer volume. Not being a beer drinker, I failed the last litre or so.

    I am going to go the liquid diet for a week method next time. I told the doc I was never doing it again, I had had enough, and he said I should try that. We’ll see.

  37. From train wreck to Fact Check – Media Release

    POSTED BY ANDREW LEIGH JANUARY 30, 2019

    Less than a day after an interview in which he muddled up full-time and part-time jobs, Mr Robert has been exposed as misleading Australians over Labor’s plans to reform the unsustainable system of refundable excess franking credits.

    The Coalition has waged a scare campaign against Labor’s plans to close tax loopholes used by the wealthiest Australians.

    Independent analysis has shown that 92 per cent of taxpayers are unaffected by the change to refundable excess franking credits. Eighty per cent of the benefits flow to the top fifth of retirees.

    Mr Robert claims this “is not fair” and that the policy will affect “the lowest paid”.

    If Mr Robert won’t listen to the Parliamentary Budget Office, Treasury analysis or expert analysis by the Grattan Institute, he would do well to read the RMIT ABC Fact Check that stated:

    ‘Mr Robert’s claim is misleading.

    ‘He suggests Australia’s least well off will bear the brunt of the pain.’

    The Fact Check further stated:

    ‘… using the taxable income of individuals tells us little about the overall financial position of those affected, or about the fairness or otherwise of Labor’s policy…

    … almost half of the wealthiest 10 per cent of those over 65 report income of less than the $18,200 tax free threshold and thus pay no tax. On average, however, this group had wealth of nearly $2 million, even before factoring in the value of their home or other property assets.’

    Mr Robert’s false attacks on Labor are characteristic of a government that stands against so much and for so little.

    http://www.andrewleigh.com/from_train_wreck_to_fact_check_media_release

  39. Is the Michael Flynn running for preselection in Higgins this guy?

    “ After leaving the military, he established Flynn Intel Group, which provided intelligence services for businesses and governments, including ones in Turkey.

    7

    8

    He became a senior advisor to Trump during his presidential campaign and served as the National Security Advisor from January 23

    9

    to February 13, 2017.

    10

    He resigned after information surfaced that he had misled the FBI and Vice President Mike Pence about the nature and content of his communications with Russian Ambassador to the U.S. Sergey Kislyak.

    11

    12

    Flynn’s tenure of just 24 days is the shortest in the office’s history.

    On April 27, 2017, the Pentagon inspector general announced an investigation into whether Flynn had accepted money from foreign governments without the required approval.

    15

    The New York Times reported on May 18, 2018, that a longtime FBI/CIA informant had met Flynn at an intelligence seminar in Britain six months earlier and became alarmed by Flynn’s closeness to a Russian woman there; this concern prompted another individual to alert American authorities that Flynn may have been compromised by Russian intelligence.

  41. So it wasn’t a failed arson attempt and fraudulent insurance claim!

    I bet a few people have been trawling police and insurance records to try and make that connection.

  46. Someone on Crikey today also unpacked Morrison’s Jobs claim:

    John Kotsopoulos writes: What ScheMo also failed to mention is that just 55% of the jobs, or 676,000 of 1.239 million, created since September 2013 have been full time. In other words, his mob’s stewardship of the economy is turning full time jobs into often insecure part time ones at a great rate of knots. His next trick must surely be to halve national debt by bringing in guillotines at the Reserve Bank to cut in half tens of billions in freshly printed $100 notes.

    As someone said the other day, this is going to be a Gish Gallop election. We’re going to be hard-pressed keeping up with the Coalition’s half-truths, cherry-picked data, put into its best light, and straight out lies.

    But try and keep up we must!

    Sunshine is the best disinfectant for this grubby government.

  48. just as bad as the dead fish in that photo is the utterly denuded landscape, obviously overstocked to an incredible degree. Looks like a scene from the trenches in ww1.

  49. A leading Democratic member of the House Intelligence Committee just announced a new probe into Trump’s Treasury Secretary’s business relationship with a Russian-American oligarch.

    Rep. Jackie Speier (D-CA) is leading the charge to uncover the truth behind Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin’s partnership to produce Hollywood movies with Len Blavatnik, which lasted into the middle of 2017.

    https://washingtonpress.com/2019/01/29/the-house-intelligence-committee-just-announced-a-new-russia-probe-into-the-trump-administration/

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